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#1478831 - 08/12/2018 18:37 Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
GFS is excited, ....so naturally Petros is too!:



"IF" this comes off (IMO its credible)........ huge impact on the potential fire season for Gippsland and milk production for Vic consumers (could extend the tail end of the peak Gippsland milk season).


Edited by Petros (08/12/2018 18:44)

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#1478835 - 08/12/2018 18:52 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1514
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for the thread p 👍

Yep hard not to get excited about the above
Charts lol some serious rainfall totals and flooding
U would think if that came off!
Would alleviate fire risk until January Iíd say

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#1478836 - 08/12/2018 18:53 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep - as we both know ....."IF"

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#1478856 - 08/12/2018 22:16 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
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Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 793
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
I reallllllllllly hope this thread doesn't become meaningless like our last one did when the system moved to Sydney poke

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#1478870 - 09/12/2018 00:43 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Next trough to low pressure is best receipt last longer is cut off cold pool combined upper trough mix cool to warm spin up few days is SW winds in WEST and NE winds in East and stable in center Victoria.

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#1479107 - 10/12/2018 10:08 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
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Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 793
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Wow Access-G just got on board in a big way for Thursday!


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#1479129 - 10/12/2018 12:14 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep, and very unusual to see close consensus with EC, GFS and CMC smile

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#1479140 - 10/12/2018 13:50 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Last summer we had this kind of Deep low as BOM failed saying heavy rain to Media as only hit East Victoria flooding Euroa.

This week BOM can say Flooding likely most Victoria.

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#1479146 - 10/12/2018 14:45 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Victoria turn to green State.

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#1479149 - 10/12/2018 15:19 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1389
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Latest Model runs event totals

GFS



EC



ACCESS



Right now looking at min of 30mm+ statewide with widespread falls around 50mm and isolated up to 100mm. Many Victorian stations will see 1 1/2 months worth of rain in 48 hours.


Edited by logansi (10/12/2018 15:20)
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#1479163 - 10/12/2018 16:06 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
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Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 793
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Nice consensus indeed smile Exciting!

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#1479183 - 10/12/2018 17:23 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Bom weather will be very nervous when right time tell public media of heavy rain and flooding coming. They must tell public early so more time get ready who lives near any rivers or dry bed creeks.

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#1479273 - 11/12/2018 07:14 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
vjknight Offline
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Registered: 20/12/2012
Posts: 197
Loc: AscotVale, Inner NW Melb
https://www.news.com.au/technology/envir...7a1fd0fe71805df

A drought year and the media demonise a significant rain event in the south east and in FNQ.

Simply not worth reading.

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#1479285 - 11/12/2018 09:21 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6434
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
EC "down" to 30mm for the event at my place on 12z run. First model to back off a little. Still has more than 50mm for Melbourne. Models still a bit wobbly on low placement from run to run and model to model.

Quite a bit of difference between models around the onset of the event tomorrow arvo or night.

Waiting for todays 00z run but at this stage disappointed if the event/sequence total at my place is less than 35mm. Somewhere in NSW or VIC or perhaps multiple places will see some very high totals.
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#1479291 - 11/12/2018 09:41 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
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Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 793
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
I think rain totals will change with each run and each model, such is the dependency on the low positioning. Which model nailed the recent low the best?

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#1479295 - 11/12/2018 09:52 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
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Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Yeah models can't really pin point the heaviest falls because they are changing the position of the low with every run. Anyway here is the latest even totals:

ACCESS



GFS



EC

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#1479328 - 11/12/2018 13:34 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
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Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 793
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Jeaz that GFS Scenario would throw up some serious flash flooding situations across the Metro suburbs if that came off.

[EDIT] Just realised it wasn't a 24hr total. lol


Edited by balmz (11/12/2018 13:37)

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#1479337 - 11/12/2018 14:29 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: balmz]
logansi Online   content
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1389
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: balmz
Jeaz that GFS Scenario would throw up some serious flash flooding situations across the Metro suburbs if that came off.

[EDIT] Just realised it wasn't a 24hr total. lol


Its an event total but the 24hr total is close to 85mm for Thursday with most of that falling between 6am and 12. But as with all model updates right now I expect the 00z update to have something else.


Edited by logansi (11/12/2018 14:29)
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#1479340 - 11/12/2018 15:13 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6434
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
72 hr ACC has 60-80mm in the 24 hours to Friday 11am for city and inner west burbs.
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#1479341 - 11/12/2018 15:25 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
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Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
How strange is this - Thursday 13th and Friday 14th could see Melbourne Airport pick up 80mm, the last time Melbourne Airport picked up 80mm+ over 2 days? December 13th and 14th 2008, 10 years ago to the day. Many other stations saw 30-40mm across those 2 days. I remember it because it was the last rain of any significance anyone would get until Feb 7 2009.

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#1479345 - 11/12/2018 15:52 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
South of Ranges water flow south to ocean and Over north ranges water flow to Murray river is that correct.

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#1479374 - 11/12/2018 18:04 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
gleno01 Offline
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Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 125
Loc: Shepparton
hey guys whats a good camera to catch lightning shots or time lapse photos,my camera is strugleing with low light conditions
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#1479382 - 11/12/2018 18:58 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
CA - yep.

BOM predicted 23C for Maffra today, we achieved 28C despite a freshly afternoon easterly seabreeze, unusual for them to be that far out.

ECL going by latest AccR/GFS looks to form at Mildura, then sag near southwards.

So rain will fall in different Vic regions than what looked likely on this mornings model runs!

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#1479460 - 11/12/2018 22:50 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Town near WA and SA boarder starting heavy trough thunderstorms as Front moving NE wards and a town had 44mm, very surprised enough moist out that way.


Edited by chasers addict (11/12/2018 22:51)

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#1479482 - 12/12/2018 07:27 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6434
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
WZ rotating the models it doesn't produce or delays atm, just awesome timing. GFS still looks huge for next 24 to 48 hours.

Nice increase in surface DP's overnight through the state.
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#1479578 - 12/12/2018 14:18 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6434
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Fair bit of convection out west and on some higher parts of eastern regions atm. Will be an interesting afternoon for some
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#1479590 - 12/12/2018 15:58 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Yes Ruckle, cant wait pin when where bomb low will start spinning as front is near Adelaide.

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#1479595 - 12/12/2018 16:13 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: gleno01]
Dawoodman Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1267
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Originally Posted By: gleno01
hey guys whats a good camera to catch lightning shots or time lapse photos,my camera is strugleing with low light conditions


Any DSLR with a tripod. Set your shutter length to a few seconds and press the go button. Make sure you are in focus by focusing on some lights in the distance. That should be a good start wink

for Time lapse you will want to get an Intervelometer (don't buy the wildly expensive branded ones)
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#1479599 - 12/12/2018 16:32 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Hi all. Back on board after a quite a few weeks - many intervening factors.

Looking forward to this event though, of course, hope we can get good, widespread falls and some interesting weather without danger or damage.

First few spots here atm - still, warm, humid.

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#1479607 - 12/12/2018 17:21 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: chasers addict]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2153
Loc: VIC
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Town near WA and SA boarder starting heavy trough thunderstorms as Front moving NE wards and a town had 44mm, very surprised enough moist out that way.


Bit of a breeze with the rain also ca, 129kph !!

Windiest in Aus. 11/12/18.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=11052&list=ob

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#1479608 - 12/12/2018 17:26 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thunderstorms line between Bendigo to Ocean Grove to hit Melbourne next few hours if stay strong.

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#1479609 - 12/12/2018 17:31 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
willitrainagain Offline
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Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 601
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Should get a thread going for this over here.
Not a lot for adelaide, but could be substantial on this side of the ranges

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#1479664 - 12/12/2018 19:20 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6434
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Bit of an outflow boundary going through here outof what looks like a decaying line. Wonder if that might cause other pop ups? Fair way from the trough and sun going down so not sure.


Edited by Ruckle (12/12/2018 19:20)
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#1479686 - 12/12/2018 19:59 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: ThunderBob]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Hi all. Back on board after a quite a few weeks - many intervening factors.

Looking forward to this event though, of course, hope we can get good, widespread falls and some interesting weather without danger or damage.

First few spots here atm - still, warm, humid.


You have been missed TB!!

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#1479687 - 12/12/2018 20:04 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Muggy 32c here today. Weak humilis storms popped up all around here, but all (de s pite some rain in small locations under tyhem) .....died in their own poo.

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#1479688 - 12/12/2018 20:08 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Petros. My brother gave a remote, bells-and-whistles, weather station today ... so once I get it set up I can bore you all with lots of info ;-)

Has cleared here without anything registering.

Will be fascinating to watch right along the whole east coast these next few days.

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#1479730 - 12/12/2018 22:26 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6434
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Can someone please tell me all those heavy showers that have formed to my nearby east after the line to the west died before reaching here are in fact just interference on the radar?
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#1479742 - 12/12/2018 22:58 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Ruckle i find it very strange when your West side shower then fade then East side of Melbourne way pop up showers but moving from NW direction strange.

The system in West will blow up slowly when uppers starts clockwise anytime until early morning.

Hopetoun had 29mm very stable cells.

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#1479744 - 12/12/2018 23:04 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Ruckle]
RandomGuy Offline
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Registered: 27/02/2012
Posts: 78
Loc: Melbourne (Northern Suburbs)
Originally Posted By: Ruckle
Can someone please tell me all those heavy showers that have formed to my nearby east after the line to the west died before reaching here are in fact just interference on the radar?


They are indeed showers, not interference.

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#1479768 - 13/12/2018 08:15 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6434
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
3.0mm from two showers so far. Big rain forming about 2km south of here and heading off to Melbourne.

Amazing totals around the state given nothing has really formed/got going yet.
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#1479773 - 13/12/2018 08:24 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1389
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Massive, Massive falls around Wangarratta 53mm to 8am.
Other BOM tracked gauges in the area are even bigger

Carboor Upper 93mm
Everton 91mm

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV60176.html
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#1479779 - 13/12/2018 08:36 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Gabby Offline
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Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2857
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
49mm at Yarrawonga so far


Edited by Gabby (13/12/2018 08:43)

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#1479788 - 13/12/2018 09:11 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 606
Loc: Corryong
We have had 16.5mm to now.

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#1479790 - 13/12/2018 09:21 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 125
Loc: Shepparton
1.4 mm so far looks like a fizzer for this area, might still get a bit more rain I hope , otherwise will need to water the lawn later today, lol
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#1479792 - 13/12/2018 09:22 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1514
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Weíre right in the middle of the rain bands!
About 1mm so far, hopefully all comes together
For west south gippsland as the day goes on.
Some heavy falls for other parts of state already
Which is fantastic 👍

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#1479802 - 13/12/2018 10:04 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1389
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Numerous flooding events around Wangarratta

Couple of CFA paging for examples

PERSON TRAPPED IN HOUSE, 1M WATER IN HOUSE LONDRIGAN-TARRAWINGEE RD LONDRIGAN

PERSON IN FLOOD WATER - WAIST DEEP 400 BORALMA-TARRAWINGEE RD LONDRIGAN
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#1479803 - 13/12/2018 10:07 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: gleno01]
balmz Offline
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Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 793
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Originally Posted By: gleno01
1.4 mm so far looks like a fizzer for this area, might still get a bit more rain I hope , otherwise will need to water the lawn later today, lol


Think you are about to get some storms to top up that gauge.

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#1479804 - 13/12/2018 10:09 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 793
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Jeaz I hope that big line of storms in North VIC makes it to Melbourne grin

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#1479808 - 13/12/2018 10:40 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thunder rain dumped 18mm at 10.30am

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#1479809 - 13/12/2018 10:40 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1389
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Bloomfield Park (Everton) ERTS now reporting a total of 161mm

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV60176.html
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#1479812 - 13/12/2018 10:53 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 793
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Originally Posted By: logansi
Bloomfield Park (Everton) ERTS now reporting a total of 161mm

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV60176.html


Wow!

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#1479814 - 13/12/2018 10:55 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1389
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Hume Fwy is close near Wangarrata



https://twitter.com/Davelloyd79/status/1073001633221496832


This Warning is being issued for Wangaratta, Byawatha and surrounding areas including the Hume Freeway.

Heavy rainfall is causing localised flash flooding.
You can stay safe by avoiding flooded areas.
Floodwater can be very deep, rise quickly and move fast.
You should avoid travelling, if possible.
If you are located in Wangaratta, Byawatha and surrounding areas including the Hume Freeway, you are in danger. You should immediately move indoors, away from floodwater. Do not enter floodwater.


Edited by logansi (13/12/2018 10:58)
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#1479831 - 13/12/2018 12:23 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 793
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Really nice soaking rain under the band crossing Melbourne right now. Shame the lightning it had in among it while crossing Northern VIC is gone.

Hoping for some proper storm action later.

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#1479836 - 13/12/2018 12:51 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Start forming upper low eye between Renmark SA to Mildura and Ouyen.

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#1479840 - 13/12/2018 12:56 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Ruckle]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Ruckle
3.0mm from two showers so far. Big rain forming about 2km south of here and heading off to Melbourne.

Amazing totals around the state given nothing has really formed/got going yet.


Yeah, heard of 190mm in Vic Nth Central/Nth East overnight and this morning.

We got near 3mm from breakfast time showers, now humid and easterly, baro down to 993 hPa here. Hopefully something will brew up this arvo.

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#1479861 - 13/12/2018 13:50 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 300
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
On a side note, our neighbours in Adelaide are sitting at 11.0c (Feels like 6.8c) @ 1:50 PM. shocked

Pretty cold for this time of year in Adelaide.

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#1479866 - 13/12/2018 14:01 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 793
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Are we expecting as the Low forms in NW VIC for the rain and storms to wrap around and smash Central VIC or is the worst done now?

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#1479867 - 13/12/2018 14:11 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
12.5 mm here in steady light rain since early morning. Rain cleared and clouds lifted atm. Not much convection evident but some sun hitting the ground.

Worth noting STW for much of NSW and abutting NE Vic:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and GIANT HAILSTONES

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN21033.shtml

No STW for Vic as yet.

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#1479870 - 13/12/2018 14:24 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1514
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Tb - donít think Iíve seen the term Ďgiant hailstones Ď
In a warning before?? 🤔 lol
But when u look at the radar, there certainly are
Some nasty looking cells popping up in
North east vic and southern nsw!!

Balmz- not sure when or if the worst had been
Through as yet? We have only just received
Our first rain now down here I Gippsland and thatís
From a decaying rain band coming from northern
Vic. Only a few mm, so I hope there is still plenty
More to develop and come through ?

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#1479872 - 13/12/2018 14:35 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Yes, Dooga, the "giant hailstones" is what caught my attention!

Good description ... "decaying rain band"; got prolonged rain here but you could almost feel it having run outa puff from crossing the Divide. Bit and pieces to the north from here but I think the same scenario while flow is from N/NW.

CA ... think you're right about a low spinning up ... (maybe more into Vic?)

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#1479873 - 13/12/2018 14:37 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1389
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Gippsland should see its biggest falls tommorrow morning and afternoon based on models.

People are being winched from roofs of cars on the Hume Near Wangaratta



Video:

https://twitter.com/HughNailon/status/1073048361652019200


Edited by logansi (13/12/2018 14:41)
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#1479878 - 13/12/2018 14:51 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Yes< Logansi, when the flow turns around to the E/SE but will be interesting to see where/how much - will, I think be very dependent on the centre's position.

Several chopper rescues have apparently taken place on Hume north of Wang.

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#1479904 - 13/12/2018 16:07 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Agree what u all saying above

I saw media what Bom said, i thought must a joke about hail.

Bendigo still E.SE winds of low clouds and uppers still from NW direction.

The cold upper pool is still in NW Victoria more likely move into Victoria will build heavy rain and the moist will pull-down from East side NSW to East Victoria then under south Great Dividing Range back to SW Victoria.

Bendigo will be loop hole less rain and sunny stable once Upper Low eye moves over Northern Country.

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#1479907 - 13/12/2018 16:11 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Interesting ... thanks CA.

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#1479909 - 13/12/2018 16:18 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Heavily overcast, warm, humid with a light easterly here. Baro 993 hPa. "Feels" like the low is actually centered above us out this way.

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#1479915 - 13/12/2018 16:27 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
This is best Track Low Eye.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/austeast/movies/gmswv/gmswv_loop.html

Still between SA/VIC Boarder.



Edited by chasers addict (13/12/2018 16:30)

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#1479932 - 13/12/2018 17:19 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1389
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Everton now up to 178mm since 3am, 200mm will definitely be broken i'd say.

Meanwhile 10mm here in Portland almost all around 5am this morning couple of showers during the day.
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#1479939 - 13/12/2018 17:35 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Sunny 23c feels like its over with nice low level clouds SE winds,

Middle level clouds from N/NW.
Upper level cirrus from NE.

Now thunderstorms line in my North.

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#1479942 - 13/12/2018 18:00 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
drewgon Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/03/2012
Posts: 41
Loc: Nagambie
Have not arrived home from work yet.. But i am expecting the total to be fairly average. Was no rain when I left this morning

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#1479960 - 13/12/2018 18:12 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2153
Loc: VIC
2MM in Sale, steady rain ATM.

Otherwise a calm day with plenty of clouds.

BRILLIANT to see widespread rain in Vic, and
elsewhere smile

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#1479968 - 13/12/2018 18:19 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
drewgon Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/03/2012
Posts: 41
Loc: Nagambie
17mm here so far since midnight cant complain wouldn't have minded 50 tho! fill the tanks poke

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#1479973 - 13/12/2018 18:24 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7699
Loc: Adelaide Hills
The area around Eldorado (NE VIC) with 110 mm to 9 am, grading to 50+ near Wangaratta, and the Ovens rising distinctly (2 metres, fast)...with a further 95% chance of any rain and 20-60 mm forecast (heavy rain) today shocked .

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#1479983 - 13/12/2018 18:35 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Light rain set in here past 1/2 hr (from NE by the radar), light/sporadic breeze pulsing from all points of the compass, very humid.

AccG gives us 7mm overnight before the easterly rain kicks in big time from tomorrow morning for 24 hrs. Hope that comes off.

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#1480002 - 13/12/2018 18:51 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2153
Loc: VIC
We are swinging on that E rain I reckon P, any rain is
good for the farmers and people dependent on rainfall
for any reason.

See WATL 5 min ago hasn't updated its forecast, usually
up and running before 6pm. Note that it "will be" updated
by 9pm. BOM sitting on it for the mo' ?

In the meantime, nearly mid December, with average monthly
rainfall (locally anyway) indeed looking better than most of this year.



Edited by samboz (13/12/2018 18:53)

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#1480014 - 13/12/2018 19:28 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Have look at Visible True Colour big dust-storm North side of Low of South Nsw to central.
'

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#1480015 - 13/12/2018 19:31 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 300
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
And Sydney is about to steal Melbourne's show again mad
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#1480017 - 13/12/2018 19:34 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Weather_Viewer]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 793
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Originally Posted By: Weather_Viewer
And Sydney is about to steal Melbourne's show again mad


I was literally just looking at the radar thinking this.. the GDR really kills us sometimes. Everything is dying as it comes over the range.

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#1480027 - 13/12/2018 19:44 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had another quick thunder as wind shifted SE to NE

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#1480066 - 13/12/2018 20:43 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 125
Loc: Shepparton
we just got a nice rain period and im wrapped, no watering the lawns lol 13 mm so far for the event ,hope to get a few more mm
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#1480085 - 13/12/2018 21:07 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1389
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Hows this from an impressive sat pic, low of Victoria, massive cloud band to TC Owen and a massive dust storm in Western NSW



Edited by logansi (13/12/2018 21:07)
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#1480096 - 13/12/2018 21:26 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Logansi. ...yep

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#1480102 - 13/12/2018 21:35 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1389
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Reports of significant flash flooding in Birchip, sadly no weather station in the area outside Charlton (68mm) and Hopetown (50mm) but 2 Personal stations about 10 and 20km away on WU have had over 120mm with 60mm of that since 7pm. Those areas haven't had that much rain this year!


Edited by logansi (13/12/2018 21:38)
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#1480105 - 13/12/2018 21:44 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: logansi
Hows this from an impressive sat pic, low of Victoria, massive cloud band to TC Owen and a massive dust storm in Western NSW


..."of droughts and flooding rains"

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#1480147 - 13/12/2018 23:41 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...

While we miss out big storms here link
Sydney - looks fast nastier storm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJfCUO_1fVc

NewCastle wall clouds
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-hgROiaEpg

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#1480193 - 14/12/2018 07:29 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 606
Loc: Corryong
We are up to 60mm rain its all good here.
Have heard up to 260mm near Barnawartha.



Edited by Alexia (14/12/2018 07:34)

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#1480225 - 14/12/2018 08:56 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 793
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Stunning imagery off Himawari-8 of the low this morning...


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#1480231 - 14/12/2018 09:14 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Weather_Viewer]
Werner K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 550
Loc: Flinders Park, SA
Originally Posted By: Weather_Viewer
On a side note, our neighbours in Adelaide are sitting at 11.0c (Feels like 6.8c) @ 1:50 PM. shocked

Pretty cold for this time of year in Adelaide.



Apparently was our coldest December day since 1968 if I heard the news report correctly this morning.

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#1480235 - 14/12/2018 09:34 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Gabby Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2857
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
A very good drop for us with some rumbles thrown in for good measure. 74mm .Not too sure if that is all but looks like it at the moment.

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#1480265 - 14/12/2018 11:11 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
17.5mm for the event so far. Though nothing on Gabby and Alexia's totals, it is very pleasant and useful.

Broken cloud atm. Not sure that the system will deliver us any more.

Great image Balmz!

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#1480280 - 14/12/2018 11:39 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1389
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Birchip had 166mm! That's more than half there annual average.

This is the town this morning



Edited by logansi (14/12/2018 11:41)
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#1480292 - 14/12/2018 12:18 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 300
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
After a brief shower it's blue sky and sun here in Tarneit. Reminds me the tropics!

Is it over?
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#1480293 - 14/12/2018 12:22 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1241
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
how often do you lot get the rain coming in from the north east like that?

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#1480328 - 14/12/2018 13:31 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 793
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Thoughts on afternoon storm development potential on the ranges and floating down into the Metro from the NE?

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#1480342 - 14/12/2018 13:51 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very dusty in uppers as Upper low pull all dust from North to East side to South side of Northern Country

Had 44mm rain.

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#1480362 - 14/12/2018 14:18 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Its not over yet, Thunderstorms more likely fire up along central Victoria to south dive ranges once upper Low start move down across Victoria into Tasmanian sea next 48hours.

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#1480363 - 14/12/2018 14:19 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: BIG T]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: BIG T
how often do you lot get the rain coming in from the north east like that?


Not too often Big T - though there others on this thread who know better than me. But we don't too often have a cut-off low form over Vic and then, especially, tie into the tropic air from east coast . But, as I say, oethrs know better than me ...

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#1480364 - 14/12/2018 14:21 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Balmz - I think CA's right but quite where is with the gods.

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#1480365 - 14/12/2018 14:21 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: ThunderBob]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 793
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob
Originally Posted By: BIG T
how often do you lot get the rain coming in from the north east like that?


Not too often Big T - though there others on this thread who know better than me. But we don't too often have a cut-off low form over Vic and then, especially, tie into the tropic air from east coast . But, as I say, oethrs know better than me ...


It's certainly not common, but not unprecedented.

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#1480392 - 14/12/2018 15:07 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1267
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
I remember some storms coming from the north almost north east last year. I imagine it was a similar sort of low event but it didn't catch the moisture from the tropics. I don't think it was a deep in pressure either. It wasn't really an even to write home about

Its always weird when the weather comes from the east poke
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#1480397 - 14/12/2018 15:22 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Dawoodman]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 300
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
I remember some storms coming from the north almost north east last year. I imagine it was a similar sort of low event but it didn't catch the moisture from the tropics. I don't think it was a deep in pressure either. It wasn't really an even to write home about

Its always weird when the weather comes from the east poke


I certainly remember November last year, humid moist unstable North Easterly winds for much of the month.
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#1480414 - 14/12/2018 15:49 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1514
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Wish the easterly wind would go away, seems
Like itís killing everything off that remotely
Looks like heading out way.

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#1480417 - 14/12/2018 15:54 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Weather_Viewer, agree last time was December 2017 same thing only dumped flooding around Euroa.

IF Upper low started spinning West Adelaide then most Victoria get heavy flooding.

So this Low started wrong time between Mildura and SwanHill.

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#1480419 - 14/12/2018 15:56 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
.. but she sure does make a purty picture on the satellite picture!

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#1480424 - 14/12/2018 16:07 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1389
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Light steady rain and feels very cold in Portland, officially its 16 feels like 11 but feels even colder.
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#1480428 - 14/12/2018 16:13 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
What very sunny humid and warm up here 25c

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#1480454 - 14/12/2018 17:10 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 793
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Absolutely pasting down in the CBD

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#1480456 - 14/12/2018 17:16 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: chasers addict]
HigherPerspectiv Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 07/11/2015
Posts: 31
Originally Posted By: chasers addict

While we miss out big storms here link
Sydney - looks fast nastier storm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJfCUO_1fVc

NewCastle wall clouds
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-hgROiaEpg




That's a gust front, not a wall cloud.

Wall clouds occur near the updraft region (back end) of the storm, between the rain-free base and the rain curtain.

A good indicator is to look at which way the cloud feature slopes. If it's away from the rain, it's a gust front. If it's towards the rain, it's more likely to be an inflow feature, and possibly a wall cloud.

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#1480462 - 14/12/2018 17:35 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 793
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
So its fair to say I got absolutely soaked leaving work and have very wet feet but that was, AWESOME.




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#1480464 - 14/12/2018 17:36 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1389
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
30mm in the city in 15mins

MFB run of there feet by cars in flood water and alarms, have run out of appliances in NE suburbs


Edited by logansi (14/12/2018 17:39)
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#1480486 - 14/12/2018 18:17 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
3 stages weather in Victoria.

Mildura cold 16.1c showers by Low Eye.

Bendigo Sunny 23c in clear slot.

Melbourne Isolated Thundery and showers

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#1480496 - 14/12/2018 18:33 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Ryan T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/01/2011
Posts: 13
Loc: West Footscray
That heavy rain must of just missed West Footscray, I have a friend saying cars are floating in Newport and the railway line is covered with water

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#1480593 - 14/12/2018 22:11 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3929
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
I'm not sure what sort of vehicle is optimal for punching through the middle of something like that, but I'm pretty sure it isn't a bicycle. I made it; some of the contents of my bag didn't fare so well.

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#1480606 - 14/12/2018 22:40 Re: Vic - commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 793
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Another nice heavy shower chucking it down smile

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#1480671 - 15/12/2018 07:34 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2153
Loc: VIC
Thanks Balmz, Loganski and BT, top pics grin

TOTAL RAINFALL in Sale this event, 5 mm.

Plenty of rain elsewhere, just to our north Mt.Moornapa
has had over 35mm which was badly needed out that way, the
un-irrigated country looked bare and barely greened up with
the season.

Raining here atm, might get lucky with a big mass headed here
from the N/E in the next few hours.

See Flinders Island with about 100mm overall, they'll be happy
also smile



Edited by samboz (15/12/2018 07:39)

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#1480708 - 15/12/2018 09:19 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
2mm in the 24hrs to 0900.

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#1480717 - 15/12/2018 09:49 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
1.75mm from heavy drizzle 7am. 5mm event total.

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#1480725 - 15/12/2018 10:03 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1389
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
You guys are really missing out, here in Portland i'm at an event total of 39mm now, 10mm early hours of Thursday, 14mm early hours of Friday and now 15mm since 9am yesterday.
Now covered in a misty fog.

Things have greened up a lot around here. In terms of bushfire impact SW prop gets the biggest even without the biggest totals because its was still fairly green leading into it.
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1480727 - 15/12/2018 10:09 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Lots of Dust on East side of Low is dragged to SE Victoria.

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#1480751 - 15/12/2018 11:21 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 125
Loc: Shepparton
awesome thunderstorm here 11 mm in 10 minutes I am in Mooroopna which is between shepparton and mooroopna , had a spot of purple (radar) direct hit, raining heavy again now
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#1480752 - 15/12/2018 11:21 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 125
Loc: Shepparton
between Shepparton and Tatura
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check out my you tube channel gleno2008

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#1480756 - 15/12/2018 11:27 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This event, despite missing Nth Gippsland (so far), has been an amazing system, will be remembered for a long time!

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#1480935 - 15/12/2018 18:39 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The LLC is STILL in NW Vic, currently around Birchip going by the SatIR, after our near 2mm in drizzly showers early this morning, we had a humid 28C day with breezes pulsing from all over the clock as storms arrived/brewed from the NE. After hearing rumbles for san hour n a half early arvo, Maffra finally got some decent rain for this event from a locally-produced small storm that delivered 10mm and some pea sized hail.

Just emptied out 12.5mm, taking us to 17.25mm for this event, ........so far (it aint over yet).

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#1480937 - 15/12/2018 18:43 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1514
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep p, we just scored our first storm for the
Event dropping 10mm here as well!
Hopefully still some juice left in the last part of
This system to grab a bit more rainfall

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#1480941 - 15/12/2018 18:53 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Look at AccR dooga, hope that comes off for you!

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#1480952 - 15/12/2018 19:26 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1514
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep looks good p👍
Hopefully get what itís suggesting.
Wonít get hopes up though as the last 3
Days have looked good on models but
Got bugger all lol

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#1480997 - 15/12/2018 20:26 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Mallacoota has had 87mm in past three hours. Massive rain band curling around SE coast of NSW westward around SE Vic ... looks as if it will stay off-shore except for extreme east and possibly Wlison's Prom.

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#1481081 - 16/12/2018 07:19 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2153
Loc: VIC
Just looked at M'coota TB, 91.4mm - tad wet that corner smile

We have soared to about 6mm all up, not looking at gauge now, might sell the barely used thing, any offers, cheap, fails to attract rain bearing masses etc laugh

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#1481112 - 16/12/2018 08:47 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
drewgon Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/03/2012
Posts: 41
Loc: Nagambie
We ended up with another 13mm yesturday, and another couple since midnight. 38mm for the entire event so far.

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#1481194 - 16/12/2018 13:21 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
December average month is 32.4mm

Upper low dumped 46mm

Total rain from 1st December to 16th is 75.5mm
Over average month to 43.1mm

Need another 75.9mm met year average Rainfall of 550.1mm

Had over average month of May,Aug,Nov and Dec rainfall.

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#1481310 - 16/12/2018 20:30 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
We got 5mm out of a convective shower here this afternoon. A chance,maybe, of a little more? Broken cloud. Humid. very light winds.

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#1481338 - 16/12/2018 23:31 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6434
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
61.0mm for this event from Thursday early until empty 10 mins ago.


Edited by Ruckle (16/12/2018 23:37)
Edit Reason: forgot 3mm Thursday morn
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1481345 - 17/12/2018 06:03 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Gabby Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2857
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
Final total all up for this event was 84mm.

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#1481364 - 17/12/2018 09:14 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 125
Loc: Shepparton
20mm event total plus 15 mm 2 days before with a random thunderstorm, will green things up for a week or so ,wish we got more but oh well still really nice for this time of year
_________________________
check out my you tube channel gleno2008

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#1481366 - 17/12/2018 09:23 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 125
Loc: Shepparton
drove on the hume near Wangaratta yesterday epic event there, the safety barriers were all covered in grass, fences down every where the sheer volume of water going through there would of been insane 3 to 4 km across by 6 foot deep "Guesstimate"
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check out my you tube channel gleno2008

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#1481413 - 17/12/2018 14:04 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2827
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
gleno01, people were saying that safety barriers terrible idea when flooding vehicles cant do uturn or to high grounds and people think good idea stops vehicle wash away either side protected.

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#1481945 - 21/12/2018 07:54 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2153
Loc: VIC
Gippsland local - Mount Moornapa somehow conjured 20mm to be the Vic highest found on BOM Obs page this morn.

All good to keep it a little wetter a little longer, the next week, or so, with 37C for Briagolong next Thursday will dry it off unfortunately.

Awaiting Jan. rainfall (?) with interest.

Feels cool at Sale, breezy & overcast - 17C, 28kph from ESE.

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#1481951 - 21/12/2018 08:56 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1514
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Handy little fall thatís for sure samboz 👍

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#1481996 - 21/12/2018 13:26 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Been trying to easterly drizzle on and off here all day today, mountains have been invisible all day.

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#1481997 - 21/12/2018 13:27 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: chasers addict]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
gleno01, people were saying that safety barriers terrible idea when flooding vehicles cant do uturn or to high grounds and people think good idea stops vehicle wash away either side protected.


Impact on access to and past, car accidents within them now looming as an evolving issue too.

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#1482064 - 21/12/2018 16:54 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Just poured out 3mm, takes Maffra to 29.5mm over past 12 days, mostly due to two storms we experienced over the period. Probably did well in retrospect given the damaged meted out to large areas of the state over the same period.

I'm hoping to be able to pour out something similar before it all ends tomorrow ahead of the Christmas warm spell.

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#1482205 - 22/12/2018 10:48 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
.....and a nightime rain period delivered a very handy extra 7.5mm to the 3mm we got earlier yesterday smile

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#1482206 - 22/12/2018 10:49 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1389
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
You guys have been very lucky, many places well above models expected, meanwhile nothing but a heavy shower overnight which delivered 0.5mm here. Suns out now
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1482211 - 22/12/2018 11:24 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1514
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
5mm up here over the last two days. Far East
Gippsland and the central corridor around Melbourne
Did real well over the last couple of days.

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#1485371 - 14/01/2019 11:32 Re: Vic - ECL amd commencement of a wet lead up to Christmas 10-16/12/18 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Petros
The LLC is STILL in NW Vic, currently around Birchip going by the SatIR, after our near 2mm in drizzly showers early this morning, we had a humid 28C day with breezes pulsing from all over the clock as storms arrived/brewed from the NE. After hearing rumbles for san hour n a half early arvo, Maffra finally got some decent rain for this event from a locally-produced small storm that delivered 10mm and some pea sized hail.

Just emptied out 12.5mm, taking us to 17.25mm for this event, ........so far (it aint over yet).


Pretty good photo taken by my mate Duncan for the above-mentioned storm:



From Maffra-Stratford road looking North, 10mm at the golf club 2KM's to his northwest, ....and not a drop on his farm.

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