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#1479552 - 12/12/2018 11:41 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
lightning chaser Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/06/2007
Posts: 548
Loc: nowra NSW
Central west slopes and north west slopes are looking like the places to be today for storms. Nice gap in the cloud for that area temps in high 20's and dewpoints around 14. Hopefully someone is out that way with a camera or two...
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#1479555 - 12/12/2018 11:56 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: GringosRain]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2979
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
I did because there is 55 knot shear over the Lower Hunter and Sydney, so there will be turning in the atmosphere. Havent seen any FB pages....

Eiger holding his wand again...

Point was the conditions are there for Tornados, wherever, if ever, they get going. Whether they are on the ranges or plains, or in an isolated or populated area we will see. But they arent out of the realm of possibility


I've been seeing and thinking the same thing. Given the complete lack of comments from any of the storm chasers among us I assume there is not much to get excited about. Online everyone is obsessing over cyclone Owen and when/where he will have most impact.

Looking at the numbers and mods though it looks like a prolonged severe thunderstorm outbreak.
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#1479559 - 12/12/2018 12:26 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Jimi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 1117
Loc: Killara
Meanwhile, Darwin has just had its hottest night on record.

I'm surprised the record is only 30C - pretty sure Adelaide has a higher min record (yes, I know why but I'm still surprised)

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#1479583 - 12/12/2018 14:29 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1977
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
A small cell has developed out west of me at the moment,it looks like it will move just to my north.probably clip Cessnock.
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#1479634 - 12/12/2018 18:38 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8797
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
What interests me most about this event is the steering winds are almost N'ly over the next 2-3 days according to GFS, don't see that much during a storm outbreak however probably no surprise given how the low/front will position itself. I've seen some pretty strong storms come from up that way, and usually make it to the coast.

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#1479682 - 12/12/2018 19:49 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2979
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Its a shame EC has gone cold on any storms here on Sat/Sun, GFS on the other hand looks much nicer.
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#1479684 - 12/12/2018 19:53 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Edge Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 04/02/2017
Posts: 28
Now this system seem more likely , and bonus, NO hysterical media chatter or OTT warnings from the BOM!

Good too see bring it on!

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#1479695 - 12/12/2018 20:26 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3149
Loc: Tweed Heads
2 systems potentially combining .. Very interesting.
No signs from the ants moving off the ground near the tweed river yet for a heads up. Quite a few media articles on this topic emerging currently . Just google 'zombie cyclone'
could be interesting. It has been very dry here at the tweed we are due for a dumping. we have about 20-50mm due on nfriday for starters. Many fires still about so this could be welcome


Edited by crikey (12/12/2018 20:27)
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#1479709 - 12/12/2018 21:23 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: GringosRain]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5446
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
I did because there is 55 knot shear over the Lower Hunter and Sydney, so there will be turning in the atmosphere. Havent seen any FB pages....

Eiger holding his wand again...

Point was the conditions are there for Tornados, wherever, if ever, they get going. Whether they are on the ranges or plains, or in an isolated or populated area we will see. But they arent out of the realm of possibility


Fair enough, no doubt the potential is there. Would love to see one.
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#1479717 - 12/12/2018 21:38 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5005
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Eddyg
Fair enough, no doubt the potential is there. Would love to see one.

Had a view of two tornadoes moving through Greystanes on 3/11/2000 from the 16th floor of a building in Parramatta with a clear view to the Blue Mountains (and the Harbour Bridge and City CBD on the other side). It was a great place to watch storms.

The tornado tracks would have been a few kilometres distant. You could see the 'twister' shape made up of dust / debris and the violet flash where it brought down power lines.

Unfortunately I didn't own a mobile phone with a camera back then.

American Met Journal Report


Edited by Steve777 (12/12/2018 21:41)
Edit Reason: Fix link

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#1479725 - 12/12/2018 22:10 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5446
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Thanks Steve777, very interesting. A very in-depth report, only flicked through it. I will have a good look at it in the morning.

I can say I have seen thousand of waterspouts but not a tornado, came close a couple of years ago when some cloud/scud scrapped the ground but it was too far away to tell if it was rotating.

Link http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1371072/18
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2018 - 1145.9mm
2019 MTD - 261.3mm
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#1479729 - 12/12/2018 22:24 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1977
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
I always thought a waterspout is a tornado over water ,if they come onshore they are a tornado,as far as I am concerned a waterspout is a tornado.Report here of a tornado 3kms west of me,

https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/92612398


Edited by Stormy3 (12/12/2018 22:31)
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1479735 - 12/12/2018 22:37 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1977
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...


And another report here just south of Cessnock,3kms north of my area.

https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/2384769




Edited by Stormy3 (12/12/2018 22:38)
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1479737 - 12/12/2018 22:51 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Stormy3]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10652
Loc: South West Rocks
Originally Posted By: Stormy3
I always thought a waterspout is a tornado over water ,if they come onshore they are a tornado,as far as I am concerned a waterspout is a tornado.
There are tornadic waterspouts and non-tornadic waterspouts. Wikipedia has a brief summary about each: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waterspout#Types

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#1479748 - 12/12/2018 23:29 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5005
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Memories of tornadoes past:

"14th December this year [2017] marks the 50th anniversary of the tornado which devastated buildings in Spit Road, Awaba and Killarney Streets and put Mosman in the international news in 1967. One member recalls that relatives living in Pittsburg PA at the time ‘heard about it on their news and rang to check that we were okay, and not homeless or roofless!’

Another member wrote in his diary of roofs missing, cars overturned, trees uprooted, boats thrown onto land and ’Dick Gooch’s service station on Spit Road looks like a bomb ruin’."


Mosman Historical Society Journal

EDIT: just noticed the date - 3 days before then Prime Minister Harold Holt chose a bad day to go swimming.


Edited by Steve777 (12/12/2018 23:35)

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#1479751 - 12/12/2018 23:36 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3444
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Don’t forget the Buladelah F4....it was a beast.

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#1479754 - 12/12/2018 23:46 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Marts Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/01/2006
Posts: 2273
Loc: Mona Vale, northern beaches , ...
Originally Posted By: Kino
Don’t forget the Buladelah F4....it was a beast.


I remember seeing something about that.

It's happened before and will happen again somewhere sometime.


Edited by Marts (12/12/2018 23:47)

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#1479756 - 12/12/2018 23:56 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1977
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
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Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1479760 - 13/12/2018 05:13 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8797
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Storms possibly severe in the latest Syd forecast.

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#1479767 - 13/12/2018 08:12 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3444
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Looking interesting for us if it makes it over escarpment

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