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#1479151 - 10/12/2018 15:31 NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3093
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
All models now consistent in a deep trough forming over eastern Aus linking a deep over land low in Southern Aus to Tc Owen in the GoC.

Widspread falls of 30-60mm are possible across thousands of km's from western SA, almost all of Vic, northern Tas and right up the guts of QLD.

Localised heavy falls are possible dependant on the movement of the over-land Low + Ex-Owen. Gusty severe storms are also possible right across vast swathes of Vic --> QLD as the trough pushes east and Ex-Owen pushes S/SSE/SE.

I know it's hyperbole, but this event could be UNPRECEDENTED.


Edited by Seabreeze (17/12/2018 16:07)
Edit Reason: removed today due to day-to-day thread getting used instead

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#1479161 - 10/12/2018 16:04 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
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Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 565
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
The humidity is also starting to build as the for the first time this month I have reached a dew point above 20 degrees. 21.0 degrees at 2:27pm, hopefully there is some killer organised storms with this system.

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#1479304 - 11/12/2018 10:31 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3093
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Still a goer and our forecast is now 'Thunderstorms" all week - there's some pretty decent shear associated with the Low so we should see strong long-lived storms with large hail and damaging winds possible you'd think. Risk of tornados inland as well.

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#1479307 - 11/12/2018 10:53 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
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Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2914
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
My worry is on most days will be cloud choked inhibiting heating and convection for here, so many of the trough systems over spring were just choke out by to much cloud and collapsed into thundery messes. I'm sure at least of of the next few days will deliver something of substance for us here and more than one if were lucky.
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#1479308 - 11/12/2018 11:00 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4670
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I think that the amount of rain might depend upon what happens with the once and future tropical cyclone Owen. Access has it staying well up North before fizzling out early next week. EC and GFS have it moving parallel to the Qld coast to about the latitude of Fraser Island.

Here's the BOM's forecast for the next 8 days. Widespread useful falls, although no particularly big totals:


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#1479310 - 11/12/2018 11:44 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 565
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Cs22 don't worry about the clouds, there is a seriously warm and humid air mass sitting ahead of the trough. Yesterday was an example 28 with overcast. But all the maps looking worrying for the basin.

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#1479313 - 11/12/2018 12:02 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: ashestoashes]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3093
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Cs22 don't worry about the clouds, there is a seriously warm and humid air mass sitting ahead of the trough. Yesterday was an example 28 with overcast. But all the maps looking worrying for the basin.


and - with the shear profile storms will be more about advection than convection.

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#1479318 - 11/12/2018 12:36 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8704
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
I only just checked out this mornings EC run, quite amazing. Appears as though Owen stops off the QLD/NSW border and another low/deep trough follows this upcoming one for NSW. The next week or so could be a game changer for many.

Parts of the Hunter won't do too badly today with about 10-15mm forecast mainly in the upper.

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#1479385 - 11/12/2018 19:11 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 565
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Honestly I'm not too fussed with the rainfall forecasts at this stage as much of it will be rogue thunderstorm activity. Although I'm hoping for a some organised squall line stuff.
The BOM on their latest video is saying that some places may see 70mm in an hour, crazy stuff. Rogue 100mm rainfalls should fall not in the suspect areas.
Hopefully the metro picks up some decent totals as some areas missed out a lot of rain at the end of NOV system.

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#1479442 - 11/12/2018 22:16 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Offline
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Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1884
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Yes this is one area that missed it all
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#1479450 - 11/12/2018 22:33 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 565
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...

To clarify I was just mentioning a couple areas around me. In which a rain band weaken as it approached and then re-intensified after it moved away, which was annoying. But obviously some areas have done worse, my heart goes out to them. Anyways hopefully those struggling see a big reduction in their deficits with this system.


Edited by ashestoashes (11/12/2018 22:34)

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#1479457 - 11/12/2018 22:46 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3093
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Pretty sure we are worse off then Cessnock here but I’ll take whatever we can get.

Cessnock currently 200mm below yearly average. Wollongong 540mm and on track for our driest year on record (noting the AWS is only 25 yrs old). Still pretty bad.

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#1479458 - 11/12/2018 22:48 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3093
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
To be fair Steve that’s based on ACCESS and it’s been pretty lame of late...EC is a fair bit wetter. Hopefully EC wins.

Originally Posted By: Steve777
I think that the amount of rain might depend upon what happens with the once and future tropical cyclone Owen. Access has it staying well up North before fizzling out early next week. EC and GFS have it moving parallel to the Qld coast to about the latitude of Fraser Island.

Here's the BOM's forecast for the next 8 days. Widespread useful falls, although no particularly big totals:


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#1479484 - 12/12/2018 07:30 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1733
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
I think its time to ramp up the enthusiasm levels in here for this event! Models are pretty much on board aside from minor variations. GFS now has storm potential in eastern NSW right through into next week. Thursday-Sunday look rather epic for severe storms along the ranges and coast. I dont think I have seen so many days in a row with potent ingredients lining up. Friday arvo for Hunter and Sydney looks full on and Saturday not far behind. EC though, sort of showing a gap day on Saturday....so will have to keep an eye on that.

So it might become a bit of a mess on some days, but I would say this could be one the best supercell outbreaks in years. Would be watching for tornados coming off the ranges into populated areas also.

Is anyone seeing a Supercell outbreak pattern here? Because the threads a bit quiet if so.

P.S Kino I dont see Cessnock representing figures for my location it often picks up more rain. I would be looking at deficits over 36-40 months anyway. We have been dealing with this drought way longer than the Illawarra albeit the Illawarra may have had a relatively dryer spell over the last year. You still would have had more rain then me. Averages are just higher down there.

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#1479503 - 12/12/2018 08:22 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5260
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Already showers starting to move in slowly from the North-East.

5mm since midnight, current temp 20.6c Dewpoint 19c and humidity 95%
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#1479505 - 12/12/2018 08:26 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
Eigerwand Offline
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Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 362
Hehe, “tornadoes coming off the ranges into populated areas”, hehe
🌪🐖

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#1479507 - 12/12/2018 08:36 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Eigerwand]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5260
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Hehe, “tornadoes coming off the ranges into populated areas”, hehe
🌪🐖


Who made that claim, one of the thousands Facebook pages?
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#1479513 - 12/12/2018 08:43 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1733
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
I did because there is 55 knot shear over the Lower Hunter and Sydney, so there will be turning in the atmosphere. Havent seen any FB pages....

Eiger holding his wand again...

Point was the conditions are there for Tornados, wherever, if ever, they get going. Whether they are on the ranges or plains, or in an isolated or populated area we will see. But they arent out of the realm of possibility


Edited by GringosRain (12/12/2018 08:53)
Edit Reason: extra info

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#1479524 - 12/12/2018 09:48 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: Kino]
kizz Online   content
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Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2105
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
We don't get tornados here. Only mini-tornados and mini-cyclones.

poke poke poke

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#1479543 - 12/12/2018 11:01 Re: NSW Deep Low + easterly dip, Thurs 13/12/18 --> 16/12/18 [Re: GringosRain]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3093
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
I did because there is 55 knot shear over the Lower Hunter and Sydney, so there will be turning in the atmosphere. Havent seen any FB pages....

Eiger holding his wand again...

Point was the conditions are there for Tornados, wherever, if ever, they get going. Whether they are on the ranges or plains, or in an isolated or populated area we will see. But they arent out of the realm of possibility


Absolutely - the shear profile is pretty tasty.

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