Page 1 of 35 1 2 3 ... 34 35 >
Topic Options
#1479420 - 11/12/2018 21:14 SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2539
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Severe storms and heavy rain likely on Thursday-Saturday with the possible arrival of ex-TC Owen (or not an ex-TC) anywhere between Fraser Is and the border over the late weekend.


Edited by Seabreeze (17/12/2018 21:29)
Edit Reason: added "speculation" with Ex-TC Owen as it soon became apparent during the early days of the thread that it would not end up affecting SEQLD/NENSW

Top
#1479424 - 11/12/2018 21:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2539
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
06z GFS has Owen stalling and washing out over Fraser with big rain dumps along WBB and SC.

Top
#1479425 - 11/12/2018 21:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7816
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Thanks NF.

It's gone a lot further west this run. Last run had Owen exiting the coast near Yeppoon while this run at about Hervey Bay.

Top
#1479426 - 11/12/2018 21:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3489
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
But EC persists a coastal hugger and ACCESS is just being ACCESS with tropical systems.
Will post again when I have looked at it all more closely.


Edited by Steve O (11/12/2018 21:27)

Top
#1479427 - 11/12/2018 21:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1879
Loc: Kingaroy
If EC comes off it will make a big mess.

Top
#1479429 - 11/12/2018 21:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2539
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mega
Thanks NF.

It's gone a lot further west this run. Last run had Owen exiting the coast near Yeppoon while this run at about Hervey Bay.


GFS has been playing catch-up all the way with this system. EC the trend-setter.

Top
#1479432 - 11/12/2018 21:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3844
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Hervey Bay is so vulnerable in a Northerly, Scarness in particular, gee I hope it moves to the east a bit more than EC recons.

Top
#1479434 - 11/12/2018 21:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1879
Loc: Kingaroy
I reckon EC might have nailed this one. When did the models start picking up on Oswald?

Top
#1479435 - 11/12/2018 21:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Chris Stumer]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2539
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
If Owen gets down this far, we will have had 4 ex-TCs impact SEQ this decade - Oswald, Marcia, Debbie and Owen. We haven't had a decade like that since the 70s, 50s, 30s(?) and 1890s. That's forgetting the 2010-2011 flood events and the May 2015 ECL.

Top
#1479438 - 11/12/2018 22:02 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1879
Loc: Kingaroy
It would be interesting to know what the history is regarding ex-TCs in SEQ.

Top
#1479439 - 11/12/2018 22:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3489
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Debbie being the most recent and the central pressure was only around 994hpa when it hit here. That was still a crazy event. Oswald for me was more intense winds. Keep em coming haha


Edited by Steve O (11/12/2018 22:18)

Top
#1479440 - 11/12/2018 22:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 370
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Owen's back
_________________________
Just here for the weather

Top
#1479443 - 11/12/2018 22:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7816
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Here is Ozzy; note the blocking double-high over NZ as well. The exception is that particular blocking pattern lasted a full week whereas this one isn't expected to last anywhere near that long:




Top
#1479444 - 11/12/2018 22:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3489
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea didn't he exit out near Sydney ? That high around NZ that only just moved over recently too haha


Edited by Steve O (11/12/2018 22:22)

Top
#1479445 - 11/12/2018 22:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1879
Loc: Kingaroy
Interesting times ahead I think.

Top
#1479446 - 11/12/2018 22:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Chris Stumer]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 937
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
It would be interesting to know what the history is regarding ex-TCs in SEQ.

Others have commented on some. The complete list last two decades
In last 6 years
Debbie March 17
Marcia February 15
Oswald January 13
In 12 years 2000-2012 nil


Edited by Flowin (11/12/2018 22:23)

Top
#1479447 - 11/12/2018 22:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5989
While Owen remains a TC with a reasonable depth, itíll be mainly steered by the steering winds aloft blowing around the periphery of midlevel ridges and troughs rather than just surface systems.
Once it starts weakening again and its vertical structure becomes shallower, the lower level flow should have more influence.

Top
#1479448 - 11/12/2018 22:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Steve O]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7816
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Yea didn't he exit out near Sydney ? That high around NZ that only just moved over recently too haha


Yeah, around there. It was an incredible event. He actually even turned poleward once he reached NSW because that blocking pattern was still there blocking him from escaping the coast. I guess blocking highs are good for something, huh.

edit: Yep, good point Ken. In Ozzy's case, he was weak and primary steered by the lower-levels after being pulled southward by an upper trough. In Owen's case, it's a little trickier since he could be stronger (and have more depth) in which case he'd have more influence from the mid-upper level steering flow which you'd think would want to push him more SE or E. Anyway, interesting times.

Top
#1479449 - 11/12/2018 22:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2667
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
TC Owens latest update still has him becoming a Cat3 System and at this stage crossing the coast as such in the GOC.

BoM update Details of Tropical Cyclone Owen at 7:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South, 139.0 degrees East , 175 kilometres north of Mornington Island and 310 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola .
Movement: west northwest at 10 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Owen is located north northwest of Mornington Island. It is expected to continue moving steadily westwards during the rest of this evening. During Wednesday or Thursday, the tropical cyclone is expected to slow down and then move to the east towards the Queensland coast. It may reach category 3 intensity by Thursday if conditions remain favourable. A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast during Friday is most likely.

Top
#1479451 - 11/12/2018 22:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Steve O]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2539
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Debbie being the most recent and the central pressure was only around 994hpa when it hit here. That was still a crazy event. Oswald for me was more intense winds. Keep em coming haha


The circulation passed directly overhead here during the evening. You could see the stadium effect even at night. It was all still with no wind, but you could hear the wind roaring around the 'eye' in the distance. That was the closest I think I'll ever get to being in the eye of a cyclone.

Top
Page 1 of 35 1 2 3 ... 34 35 >


Who's Online
0 registered (), 56 Guests and 2 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
drbob, Schwartzbear
Forum Stats
29914 Members
32 Forums
24132 Topics
1523839 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image