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#1479452 - 11/12/2018 22:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Flowin]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
It would be interesting to know what the history is regarding ex-TCs in SEQ.

Others have commented on some. The complete list last two decades
In last 6 years
Debbie March 17
Marcia February 15
Oswald January 13
In 12 years 2000-2012 nil


That's so....bizarre.

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#1479453 - 11/12/2018 22:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
It would be interesting to know what the history is regarding ex-TCs in SEQ.

Others have commented on some. The complete list last two decades
In last 6 years
Debbie March 17
Marcia February 15
Oswald January 13
In 12 years 2000-2012 nil


That's so....bizarre.


What about the hybrid cyclone? And there was another low in the early 2000s I thought. Much quieter but not that quiet.

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#1479455 - 11/12/2018 22:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I remember the '04 hybrid but that's it really. Probably were more though.

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=103876
http://www.drdisk.com.hk/seq04.htm

To be honest, it looked too 'ECL-ish' to really count for me haha.

You could add the 2012 tropical low to that list too Flowin - made it down to about Gympie during the early morning before being sheared apart.

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#1479461 - 11/12/2018 22:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Chris Stumer]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 675
Loc: Bardon 4065
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
It would be interesting to know what the history is regarding ex-TCs in SEQ.


A interesting read here for some history of all cyclones and tropical lows off the east coast by Jeff Callaghan ex BOM.

http://hardenup.org/umbraco/customConten...s_1858-2008.pdf
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#1479465 - 11/12/2018 23:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Wow, that is some awesome history lesson F.C., thanks for sharing. Great work.
Seems to me abundant TC's and storms in our history & they will keep on coming!

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#1479468 - 11/12/2018 23:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1883
Loc: Kingaroy
Thanks for that link, it was very interesting reading.

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#1479473 - 12/12/2018 05:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8802
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
It would be interesting to know what the history is regarding ex-TCs in SEQ.

Others have commented on some. The complete list last two decades
In last 6 years
Debbie March 17
Marcia February 15
Oswald January 13
In 12 years 2000-2012 nil


That's so....bizarre.


What about the hybrid cyclone? And there was another low in the early 2000s I thought. Much quieter but not that quiet.


What about Cyclone Beni, that was Feb 2003

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#1479477 - 12/12/2018 06:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1664
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Here is a satellite time-lapse from the last 24 hours of Owen up in the Gulf. It updates every 30 minutes.
https://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-GulfOfCarpentaria.aspx
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#1479478 - 12/12/2018 06:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Sandbank Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 71
Amazingly common historically for TC's to cross SE Qld and northern NSW. I didn't know that.

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#1479481 - 12/12/2018 07:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
It appears that the recent model runs (12Z) are not settled on taking ex Owen poleward to a southern graveyard.
GFS was showing signs earlier yesterday of a change in direction northward again when it reaches Fraser Is.
EC now seems to be coming on board with a change to the north again, but perhaps taking the system past Fraser before turning north again. BoM on radio this morning saying strong winds could be a main feature of this system (more compact than Oswald in 2013). If that scenario comes this system could make quite a mess of Fraser Island beaches a week before Christmas.

The difference between GFS and GFS-FV3 also appears to be closing.
HWRF hinting at this ex TC staying further north.


Edited by Flowin (12/12/2018 07:31)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1479485 - 12/12/2018 07:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Sandbank]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Sandbank
Amazingly common historically for TC's to cross SE Qld and northern NSW. I didn't know that.

I guess itís all relative. If you compare it to the northern or central QLD coast, itís still far less common down here and when they do cross here, itís typically a low-end TC or low.
But as Iíve said before, thereíll probably come a day eventually when a high-end one makes a direct impact.

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#1479490 - 12/12/2018 07:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Great reading all these posts. I often read the BOM's archives to try to match up what I can remember from about 1965 to see if it really happened. I found most did, especially cyclone Dinah. Probably RWM has a few stories to tell.

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#1479493 - 12/12/2018 07:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Looks like a battle between threads and Plucka now.

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#1479497 - 12/12/2018 07:58 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Dangerous system. Owen gets all the attention because its a cyclone. But big stagnating uppper low over SE Australia, and blocking high, they are the real players. Without them the ex-TC wouldn't come anywhere near here and we'd be fine and boring. Without the Tropical cyclone I think the upper system would still manage to spin up some random patch of thunderstorms in the coral sea into an impressive hybrid or ECL.

Definite stall potential on this system which is an important ingredient for the most extreme floods. Access wants a stall way north, and EC maybe just far enough off the coast at the moment to avoid serious problems. But definitely something to watch.

Moisture delivery from the Pacific is overall pretty poor considering a big fat high in the Tasman, but still ok. And when it comes this far south there is quite a northerly fetch dragging moisture out of the tropics. I'm guessing the system would still have less moisture to play with than some other comparable systems. Compare to the ECL near Sydney a week or three ago, overall a poor moisture supply, but a thin slab of very moist air pulled along the coast from the north. Still got some fairly serious floods happening, but more localized than it could have been with a big moisture feed IMO.

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#1479508 - 12/12/2018 08:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Our rural SEQ catchments are quite dry at the moment, so I would expect rainfall totals well over 100 mm as a minimum probably closer to 200 mm would be needed for flooding in the larger rivers.
The more concerning risk may be flash flooding particularly in urbanised creek catchments that have a lot of paving where almost any rain runs off. It only takes a 2 or 3 hour burst of heavy rain for many urban creeks to rise quickly.

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#1479510 - 12/12/2018 08:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
And the donut hole award goes to......
http://www.farmonlineweather.com.au/models/rainfallchart.jsp?lt=wzstate&lc=qld&mh=168

Looks like we are definitely in between systems.


Edited by Warwick Eye2Sky (12/12/2018 08:42)
_________________________
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#1479512 - 12/12/2018 08:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
EC is still the only model going past Fraser. And GFS is the only one that keeps it relatively strong up to Fraser. All the rest keep it further north and weaker. My money is on EC backing down as soon as this evening.

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#1479518 - 12/12/2018 09:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
EC is still the only model going past Fraser. And GFS is the only one that keeps it relatively strong up to Fraser. All the rest keep it further north and weaker. My money is on EC backing down as soon as this evening.


Think ya right NF that low has to compete with a brick wall of a strengthening ridge looking at latest Access maps.

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#1479526 - 12/12/2018 10:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Flowin]
Coxy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1053
Loc: Jindalee, QLD
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Our rural SEQ catchments are quite dry at the moment, so I would expect rainfall totals well over 100 mm as a minimum probably closer to 200 mm would be needed for flooding in the larger rivers.
The more concerning risk may be flash flooding particularly in urbanised creek catchments that have a lot of paving where almost any rain runs off. It only takes a 2 or 3 hour burst of heavy rain for many urban creeks to rise quickly.


With our catchments being so bone dry, if we get sudden, persistent heavy rain is it more likely to run off than soak in? Curious about the science there.

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#1479527 - 12/12/2018 10:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Coxy, some localised areas particularly soils with high clay content can produce runoff from high intensity rain before the ground is fully saturated. The concept is when rainfall rate exceeds the infiltration capacity. That effect is typically localised.
However my comment about dry catchments was more in relation to the larger rivers. For large rivers to flood a substantial area of the catchment needs to produce runoff, so the localised effects of high rainfall intensity exceeding infiltration capacity alone is often not sufficient for large river flooding. Really need the catchment to wet up and then produce widespread runoff for large rivers to flood.
Smaller creeks and catchments are different and can respond before the catchment is fully wet particularly in high intensity rainfall.

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