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#1481400 - 17/12/2018 12:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10670
Loc: SWR
Cheers Kev. smile

Orara River flood heights have been revised upward again, with moderate flooding now expected at Coutts Crossing:
Quote:
Minor to Moderate Flood Warning for the Orara River
at Glenreagh and Coutts Crossing
Issued at 11:58 am EDT on Monday 17 December 2018
Flood Warning Number: 7
MINOR FLOODING IS CURRENT AT GLENREAGH AND COUTTS CROSSING. MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT COUTTS CROSSING.

Minor flooding is occurring along the Orara River at Glenreagh where the river is expected to peak early Monday afternoon.
Minor flooding is occurring along the Orara River at Coutts Crossing where moderate flooding is expected.
Heavy rainfall has been recorded across the Orara River catchment during Sunday and early Monday morning. Rainfall has eased since 6am this morning.

Orara River:
Moderate flooding is likely along the Orara River.
The Orara River at Glenreagh Automatic Gauge is likely to peak near 7.90 metres around 02:00 pm Monday with minor flooding.
The Orara River at Glenreagh Bridge (manual flood gauge) is likely to peak near 6.20 metres around 03:00 pm Monday with minor flooding.
Minor flooding is occurring along the Orara River at Coutts Crossing where the river is likely to exceed moderate flood level (9.00 metres) around 03:00 pm Monday. The river level is likely to reach around 10.50 metres Tuesday morning with moderate flooding.

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#1481404 - 17/12/2018 13:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
About 20-25 mm mainly overnight, for this event at the tweed river (coastline)
the weather station is called Barneys point
Yesterday a forum member had 64mm in a few hours at Robina and here at the tweed only 20km away we got a couple of mm in that same time frame.

Your either on the 'rain train'or observing from the periphery.

I love those meteorological urban dictionary phrases. Going to have to start a new thread about them one day

'Rain train.'. Under a persistent stream of rain passing through

'media' ..Over inflated cyclones.
'JB' Enjoying the weather

Gotta love it

I will certainly add those to my vocabulary


Edited by crikey (17/12/2018 13:13)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1481411 - 17/12/2018 13:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Sandstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2003
Posts: 316
Loc: Highvale
82.5mm to 9.00am . 138mm for the event. No fizzer for me.
_________________________
The mind is everything. What you think you become.


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#1481416 - 17/12/2018 14:32 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Raweth Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 361
Loc: Darling Heights, Toowoomba, QL...
40mm at my location in Toowoomba for the event, the bulk falling yesterday and last night.

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#1481420 - 17/12/2018 15:18 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Some really nice lumpy showers coming through. 5.5mm since 9 o'clock.

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#1481422 - 17/12/2018 15:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: crikey]
Pharbelle Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/04/2013
Posts: 140
Loc: Burrum Heads , Qld
Originally Posted By: crikey
I love those meteorological urban dictionary phrases. Going to have to start a new thread about them one day

'Rain train.'. Under a persistent stream of rain passing through

'media' ..Over inflated cyclones.
'JB' Enjoying the weather

Gotta love it

I will certainly add those to my vocabulary

And add 'plucka' for anything really dodgy. wink

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#1481427 - 17/12/2018 16:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1268
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Glad to hear of some good totals around. Geez, Adam, that must be one the lowest rainfall ytdís Toowoomba has ever had?
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2019 - 182mm Jan - .5 Feb - 1.5, Mar - 143, Apr - 0, May - 8, June - 29

2018 - 508.2
2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1481428 - 17/12/2018 16:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Another 6.5mm yesterday for an event total of 64.5mm.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1481430 - 17/12/2018 17:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1868
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
Another 6.5mm yesterday for an event total of 64.5mm.


Great news, once again no signs of storms that were on the forecast

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#1481434 - 17/12/2018 18:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
michaelmac50 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/10/2018
Posts: 13
Loc: Kilcoy, SEQ, QLD
25mm in the previous 24 hours...170mm total for this event.

Very wet around the area, lots of flooded paddocks, creeks are up.

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#1481436 - 17/12/2018 18:21 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1266
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Total of 40mm all up , feel like a bit of a loser. However seeing some totals, especially out on the downs, how good. Surely that will put moisture into the profile for a while?

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#1481437 - 17/12/2018 18:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090











For those without facebook, the above images via the MJ DK Photography fb page taken between Bongeen and Bowenville on the Downs today show the after-effects of those intense rain rates yesterday.
A number of roads remain closed. Their page is at www.facebook.com/MJ.DK.Photogrpahy/posts/1779468895495504
Video & photo licensing available via Severe Weather Australia.

The loss of our background upper support from the vacating upper level trough showed up really well in the popcorn shower activity replacing the more widespread showers and rain areas from yesterday.

Also above are the rainfall amounts in the 96hrs up to 9am today via The Early Warning Network (note that some of the colours aren't the same as the rainfall dot map on the Bureau's website).... and an estimate of rootzone soil moisture (nominal depth of the top 1m of the soil) compared to normal as at yesterday via the Bureau - hopefully the recent rainfall will make a further dent in that.

Now we wait and see if the increasing instability, shear, and heat later this week/early weekend will yield something significant (I'm reasonably confident of showers and thunderstorms but not so confident on exactly which areas).

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#1481440 - 17/12/2018 18:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1266
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Great post ken, that soil moisture graphic , u got one form a month back, has to be quite a contrast.

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#1481441 - 17/12/2018 19:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Great news, once again no signs of storms that were on the forecast


Don't get me started. One look at the radar tells you all you need to know - stream showers at best.

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#1481442 - 17/12/2018 19:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: BIG T]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 571
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: BIG T
Total of 40mm all up , feel like a bit of a loser. However seeing some totals, especially out on the downs, how good. Surely that will put moisture into the profile for a while?
donít feel bad BIG T,... 0.8mm from showers today brings Salisbury event total to 37.9mm...you are beating us atleast...lol

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#1481449 - 17/12/2018 20:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
When I left work this arvo at 2.30 it was sort of looking pretty good for a sec and was a little surprised at the look of the cloud formation but no thunder I'm pretty sure.

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#1481450 - 17/12/2018 20:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Great post Ken, very informative. Tremendous rain amounts around Dalby for sure! Certainly enough heat to work with for storms coming up early in the weekend. Will be in Wynnum for this event. I wonder if the seabreeze will be too strong and keep most of the more significant storms away from the coast?
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1481453 - 17/12/2018 20:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1868
Loc: Australia
Yeah i'm fairly sure I follow them on Facebook, wow the aerials show how much water is there in the fields, incredible

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#1481456 - 17/12/2018 20:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Aussiestormguy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 63
Loc: Allora
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
Another 6.5mm yesterday for an event total of 64.5mm.


We got 26mm last night Eye2Sky so our event total here is now 67mm. Ground was very soft and boggy in this black soil even before last nights addition. Almost got the Wife's Mustang bogged yesterday arvo getting it out from under safe cover and around our shed before the falls last night. If I tried to do that this morning I would not have had a chance. Very happy though. The grass is getting greener by the day. Excited to see much greater totals on the downs for others though. Should be a great start to the season for many Farmers. But they might have to wait a week or more before they can get machinery in. Was at the rifle club at Leyburn yesterday and only just got there. So much water around and flood-ways to cross even before the epic totals last night. I am very happy for the Farmers. ASG.

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#1481461 - 17/12/2018 21:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Thunderstorms (and speculation about Ex-TC Owen) - 13th to 17th December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10670
Loc: SWR
Great find Ken. Certainly a very impressive amount of rain falling out there on that part of the Downs.

Storms/showers pretty much kept about the ranges today in NENSW, mostly wandering in whatever direction they desired due to a lack of steering winds. Though some got strong enough for the Bureau to issue a STW for Heavy Rainfall.

An event total of 152.6mm here.

With a fortnight remaining of 2018, we're only 13.6mm below the yearly average.

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