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#1481138 - 16/12/2018 09:36 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast
Blowin' Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 1009
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Im going for 29 and cloudy.


Access currently has a bit of a ridge/ squeeze.



Ec

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#1481215 - 16/12/2018 14:28 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: Blowin']
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Oh what fun . Thanks blowin'
I will contribute when ACCESS ( interactive for public use )
comes in to view. on the 18th DEC
it is a 7 day forecast

Noticing that that ACC map looks to have what looks like an INVEST in the coral sea up there east of the peninsula.
of note in that ACC 192 hr focus is just how northerly that High pressure ridge extends and that would keep us out of trouble for Christmas day for coastal tracking of a TC
that forecast is for the 23rd dec ..which is good
---
Any other long term model watchers to put model on the table at +172hrs
or similar


Edited by crikey (16/12/2018 14:32)
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#1481318 - 16/12/2018 20:53 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: Blowin']
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 388
Loc: Tallai, QLD
I'll through a novice guess up.
ESE winds, 28-30 degrees with a possible shower. Ooh and of course, lots of Jimmy, I know that part will be accurate.
DD
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#1481353 - 17/12/2018 07:55 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: Blowin']
Rod H Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/05/2006
Posts: 63
Loc: Maudsland
JIMMY ???????

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#1481372 - 17/12/2018 10:04 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: Blowin']
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 388
Loc: Tallai, QLD
You've gotta be "In the Spirit" if you know what I mean, cheers
DD
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#1481528 - 18/12/2018 18:58 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: Blowin']
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Christmas eve 24th DEC..is appearing on the 7 day ACCESS forecast for Australia.
At 7 days we are looking at ACCESS g ( global)
I like to put the model on the table how see how it performs.

It is well known that the further out a forecast the less accurate so keep that in mind of course.

I am remembering how to post pictures so sorry if l fluff up here
ok. amazing the brain still working.
except ..
any tips on uploading photo please .. l forgot?
Commentary under the photo l snapped

http://i1081.photobucket.com/albums/j341/crikeyAWF/christmas%20eve%20ACCESS%2024_12_18.png

t+162 hrs
I have noticed that the thread says predict forecast for any part of Australia

So generally
A ridge up the east coast and high pressure over the south east coast keeping weather generally fine
However further north from Townsville to the far nth looking quite wet
There is a tropical dip in the isobars over much of the interior and the NT, with some rain in far westborder QLD
Perth looks to be hot from NE fro dessert with a weak change and southern latitude front coming through not far away
Central NSW and into SA and Victoria.. hot northerlies from the interior
Tasmania also copping a hot NW flow

soo. apologies if my interpretation of that map is a 'plucka'
some may read that a bit differently.
so lets see how she goes.
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

I will post the temperature map as well
---



Edited by crikey (18/12/2018 19:08)
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#1481530 - 18/12/2018 19:14 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: Blowin']
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 388
Loc: Tallai, QLD
I thought it was only for our backyard, but well done Crikey, that's the stuff I like to see and understand.
DD
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#1481532 - 18/12/2018 19:37 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: Blowin']
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Actually , my mistake DD.. It is for SE qld and NSW..
No probs.. I am sure each state will do there own.
Having probs with my old photobucket . and posting on WZ.
Certainly out of practice
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#1481534 - 18/12/2018 19:50 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: Blowin']
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 470
Loc: Hobart
Nice to see you back. I used to follow your blog.

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#1481536 - 18/12/2018 19:52 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: Blowin']
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Stay off photobucket Crikey its no good. Most of us are using flickr or imgur or dropbox I think.

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#1481537 - 18/12/2018 19:58 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: Blowin']
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Oh hello yep.. It is so good to see that all the forum members from 3 yrs ago are still here. Kudos to you all.
Yes l have been having a sabbatical ..LOL
Haven't been on the blog yet.. It must be a mess. Unattended blog arghh!
I might get the impetus to look in in 2019
but slowly she goes
--
Map below
Looking about low 22 deg c for the tweed . I will be very happy if that pans out for Christmas cooking.

Does an easterly sea breeze keep the temps down on the coast?
Gee theres some hot temps forecast near the NW WA !!
I thought Tassie would be hotter with a north westerly but for some reason temp maps showing a nice cool 18 deg.
Anyway at 6-7 days out this is speculation forecast
3 days in l will have a nother look and so how ACCESS has shifted on this.
Noticing things haven't shifted much from Blowin's first post of 192 hrs
so forecast holding so far
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#1481539 - 18/12/2018 20:02 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: Blowin']
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Thanks stevo.. I am on an old dinosaur computer currently with Internet explorer 10. Flickr won't except the old browser. Neither will many other sites. Firefox crashed this old computer and learnt it wasn't compatible. Blah blah so l will struggle on for now with ancient technology
My good computer is in VIC and it could be months before l go back down. That is if l have my way..
I will investigate those other sites you have suggested.
Cheers
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#1481541 - 18/12/2018 20:15 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: Blowin']
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Certainly looking like a ridge set up for this period. This weekend coming looks like the last of any instability. I'd probably sway to more of a stable weather for xmas day not sure about any cloud but judging by the synoptics I will go for top of 32c, winds ESE'ly mostly sunny. High chance of xmas spirits.

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#1481543 - 18/12/2018 20:35 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: Blowin']
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 388
Loc: Tallai, QLD
That's the spirit Steve O, my sort of Xmas
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#1481565 - 19/12/2018 08:09 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: crikey]
Pharbelle Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/04/2013
Posts: 140
Loc: Burrum Heads , Qld
Originally Posted By: crikey
soo. apologies if my interpretation of that map is a 'plucka'


Nice use of new terminology crikey...lol. laugh

I'll go for 28 degrees and sunny with a 10Knot SE breeze on Xmas day for us.

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#1481598 - 19/12/2018 15:24 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: Blowin']
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
weatherzone news is laying a few forecasts on the table for the lead to Christmas

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/perth...ix-years/528936
extract
"Perth is set to experience its hottest Christmas Day in six years with a sunny day and a top of 34 degrees Celsius expected.

If it does get to the forecast maximum, it will be the hottest Christmas since 2012, when 39.6C was recorded.
"
------------------------

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/red-hot-in-the-red-centre/528935

Extract

"Alice Springs Airport may challenge its December heat record during the next couple of days as temperatures soar in central Australia."
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#1482184 - 22/12/2018 07:04 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: Blowin']
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
We are now about 3 days away from Christmas eve and ACCESS r higher resolution is available.
The forecast 3 days out is holding out very well.
Here is a snap of T + 66hrs ( ~3 days)
Looking like a snap from the 7 day forecast .
I will let blowin comment on the t+162 hr forecast as that was blowin's post
source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
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#1482186 - 22/12/2018 08:07 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: Blowin']
Blowin' Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 1009
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Im in Brisbane on Christmas so will use that forecast 😂
Partly cloudy? Well see!


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#1482188 - 22/12/2018 08:10 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: Blowin']
Blowin' Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 1009
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
New Years Eve Fine, hot, 35 degrees, possibly a coastal strong wind warning for a northery seabreeze

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#1482599 - 24/12/2018 19:20 Re: 2018 Xmas Day and New Years Eve forecast [Re: Blowin']
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS New years eve...... t+006 hrs
compared t............... t+ 162hrs

Kudos to ACCESS !!



7 day prophecy t+ 162 hours
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