NOTICE!

The Weatherzone forum has now closed and is in read-only mode until the 1st of November when it will close permanently. We would like to thank everyone who has contributed over the past 18 years.

If you would like to continue the discussion you can follow us on Facebook and Twitter or participate in discussions at AusWeather or Ski.com.au forums.

Page 2 of 16 < 1 2 3 4 ... 15 16 >
Topic Options
#1481832 - 20/12/2018 18:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Maybe read the BOM"s forecasts.


BoM don't really give that much storm potential info. They give you the most basic forecast. This is where it's at if you're into that type of thing. Awesome graphics Ken. Just wondering if you designed that sounding asin the skew T chart itself?

Top
#1481841 - 20/12/2018 18:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Maybe read the BOM"s forecasts.


BoM don't really give that much storm potential info. They give you the most basic forecast. This is where it's at if you're into that type of thing. Awesome graphics Ken. Just wondering if you designed that sounding asin the skew T chart itself?

Nah thereís no way Iíd even have the patience to do that lol
I used one of the forecast sounding software programs thatís used by the NWS.

Top
#1481855 - 20/12/2018 18:41 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Trough line and associated surface low/ eddy arrives on Friday morning 4am at port Macquarie 4 am if your awake for that watch. I won't be .
Trough action for us still west of the divide at 10 am tomorrow
The current windstreams for anywhere on this trough line is looking quite dynamic.
Still some more action for Sydney.. A surface low/eddy is observed on ACCESS at 10pm tonight
Looks as though surface eddy migrates North along the coast up to port Macquarie in to the night and early morning
Most of our thread area overnight is with in the pre trough north westerly stream, which is sourced from the coral sea.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (20/12/2018 18:43)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1481873 - 20/12/2018 19:10 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1868
Loc: Australia
Going by what Sydney just experienced, I think were in for a ripper few days. Our atmosphere is generally more volatile and humid than Sydney, though the uppers may not support hail, hopefully some awesome structure

Top
#1481874 - 20/12/2018 19:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Going by what Sydney just experienced, I think were in for a ripper few days. Our atmosphere is generally more volatile and humid than Sydney, though the uppers may not support hail, hopefully some awesome structure

The uppers over SEQ look ok for hail... itíll just come down to whether thereíll be enough for organised severe cells to cause it.

Top
#1481889 - 20/12/2018 19:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Is it a veering with height profile? The winds seem pretty straight line from the cloud bases up. Think the garden variety for here but still in saying that it might be nice to watch. Unfortunately Beenleigh area does not look too good for a storm.


Edited by Steve O (20/12/2018 19:47)

Top
#1481906 - 20/12/2018 21:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Blowin' Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 1009
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Going by what Sydney just experienced, I think were in for a ripper few days. Our atmosphere is generally more volatile and humid than Sydney, though the uppers may not support hail, hopefully some awesome structure



Agreed. I find what happens to the west or south the day or two before is generally a good indicator!

Top
#1481913 - 20/12/2018 22:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Still not overly optimistic about Brisbane's chances of severe storms with this set-up.

Tomorrow evening it looks like we'll see some decaying storms make it up here with the weak change.

Saturday still looks like a mess. Overnight rain, lingering cloud, likely early start and plenty of concerns about the timing, strength and inland penetration of the change. One thing I really don't like is that there is no indication on any of the models of an organised system moving up with the change. It all looks very scattershot.

I hope to be wrong but I don't see epic storms for Brisbane. On the positive Saturday is still very uncertain so it might go our way.

EDIT: Just getting caught up on the Sydney storms having been out all day. Sydney CBD was hit by 3 hailstorms and 5 cells in total this afternoon. Wow.


Edited by Nature's Fury (20/12/2018 22:40)

Top
#1481919 - 20/12/2018 23:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Just have to keep a stiff upper lip I guess.Even as we speak another decaying storm system arriving on our doorstep.

Top
#1481921 - 20/12/2018 23:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
And then the quidge is back stronger than ever for two weeks. FFS.

Top
#1481924 - 20/12/2018 23:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10670
Loc: SWR
What a storm that was!! Very frequent lightning (averaging approx. a flash every second), heavy rain (22mm in 25mins) and very strong winds (estimated peak strength around 90-95km/h).
The intensity of the storm caught me by surprise, I think the storm may have transitioned from being mid-level to surface-based as it moved across the coastal plain after coming off the ranges (there was 10mm or less at places in the Lower Macleay to the SW of here where the storm moved in from, including Kempsey which got just 1.6mm out of it). Being that bit further east here making all the difference and probably gave the storm line some more time to tap-in and then get a feed of the coastal moisture.
Hopefully the holiday campers have come through alright, especially the ones at Trial Bay as the wind gets a big run-up on approach to there.

Then some quite infrequent but nice back-end lightning well after the parent storm had cleared as a little bonus. The main storm, and then the back-end stuff altogether bringing 25.2mm since 9am.

Top
#1481927 - 21/12/2018 00:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Mega
And then the quidge is back stronger than ever for two weeks. FFS.


It looks terrible all January.

Also thanks Ken for your great post. Good to see you back as well Crikey.


Edited by Nature's Fury (21/12/2018 00:01)

Top
#1481932 - 21/12/2018 03:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10670
Loc: SWR
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
The main storm, and then the back-end stuff altogether bringing 25.2mm since 9am.
This has been followed by three fast-moving, elevated (high-based) thunderstorms moving through here in the early hours of this morning. Have now received 29.4mm since 9am. A couple of these fast-moving elevated storms among the cluster of them that moved through the northern MNC early this morning actually produced a fairly reasonable amount of lightning.

Top
#1481933 - 21/12/2018 05:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1868
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
The main storm, and then the back-end stuff altogether bringing 25.2mm since 9am.
This has been followed by three fast-moving, elevated (high-based) thunderstorms moving through here in the early hours of this morning. Have now received 29.4mm since 9am. A couple of these fast-moving elevated storms among the cluster of them that moved through the northern MNC early this morning actually produced a fairly reasonable amount of lightning.


Wow the atmosphere must be really unstable then, normally storms start to die off when there is lack of heating after the sun goes down.

Top
#1481934 - 21/12/2018 05:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1868
Loc: Australia
Access C today has a line of activity developing mid afternoon in northern NSW, moving in a NE direction reaching the southern part of SE QLD by sunset.

There was some discussion earlier in the week about whether Brisbane would hold the 37c forecast today. It seems to have and if anything now is up to 38c. Must be confidence the seabreeze may be kept at bay today.

Top
#1481935 - 21/12/2018 07:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Looking out at sky this morning look like we are under a trough.
Noticing a small line of storms on lightning tracker arriving from the west currently. Line from Toowoomba to grafton currently/
'Another much larger line has formed from the NT to Penrith NSW
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/

Thanks for the welcome NF. !

weatherzone synoptic showing a tropical dip in isobars which l believe is a trough running north/ south from Nth NSW to VIC
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/
and the main trough running from NT and through to NE NSW



Edited by crikey (21/12/2018 07:16)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1481944 - 21/12/2018 07:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Pleeaaase let us get something of significance around here today !! Goin nuts from seeing everywhere just south of here getting massive storms but having to grin and bare being on the other side of the storm shield . Is it possible to get a thunderstorm script Ken.

Top
#1481959 - 21/12/2018 09:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 477
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
32į at 9am here, seems we're in for a stinker.
_________________________
Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

Top
#1481960 - 21/12/2018 09:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
30.5C out here with a lively N breeze at times.

Top
#1481974 - 21/12/2018 11:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stormwalker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2013
Posts: 96
Iím driving north to CQ on Saturday. Was planning on leaving in the morning. What are the chances Iíll see some storms along the way? smile

Top
Page 2 of 16 < 1 2 3 4 ... 15 16 >


Who's Online
0 registered (), 33 Guests and 2 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
MatthewBr, Raweth, Russellmill
Forum Stats
29947 Members
32 Forums
24194 Topics
1529247 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image