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#1481978 - 21/12/2018 12:09 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5841



I haven't really changed my mind about today and Saturday i.e. I'm still of the view that we'll probably see a zone of showers and storms starting to march across parts of the Downs and NE NSW this afternoon, some of which eventually reaches sections of the coast this evening (very late afternoon at a stretch) but with reduced severity... maybe more in the form of showers, some storms, and patchy rain areas... some of which may linger overnight or Sat morning in some areas.
The weak initial push of the change still looks like stalling and weakening in our region overnight.

Saturday looks a bit trickier - the most likely scenario could see numerous showers and storms redeveloping, perhaps from fairly early (e.g. morning) and some becoming severe with heavy rainfall/localised flash flooding, brief damaging winds or large hail...(despite the possibility of morning mid-high cloud cover which then contracts offshore)....but if there's more activity than expected too early in the day this would reduce the action later in the day (EC currently suggests a very subtle shortwave moving across early Sat morning which may help cause some morning activity).
Even if the second stronger push of the change surges up a bit early, I don't think it'll be enough to shut down all storm activity along parts of the coast due to the strong westerly steering aloft and the proximity of the more favourable inland areas to the coast. The S to SE winds behind the change look like getting pretty strong around the islands and the more exposed parts of the coastline.

Midlevels look fairly warm today but they do cool off on Saturday as the upper trough gets closer.

The depth of those westerlies just above the lower levels still concerns me a bit but most models are still sticking with sufficient moisture in that flow (midlevel moisture fields suggest some of that moisture appears to be lying in a fairly narrow plume stretching right across central Australia ahead of the upper trough).

But given the high probabilities of precip currently forecast by models, I'd say most locations in the SE Coast district will probably get at least something within the next couple of days... whether it be in the form of some dregs like showers... or full blown storms. You'd probably have to be unlucky to be one of the ones who completely miss out.

Above is the current thunder/rainfall suggestion from EC tomorrow afternoon via Windy - whether this particular scenario plays out as advertised will depend on the factors I mentioned above.

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#1481984 - 21/12/2018 12:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 104
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
Like your work here Ken. Great summary and guidance. Always appreciated and always interesting. Cheers.

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#1481994 - 21/12/2018 13:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 953
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Yes thanks again Ken.Hoping for anything with a bit of thunder in it.That seabreeze down here is almost Gale force.The Nannasin the main Street of Cooly are bracing themselves against it Wigs flyin ooff the works😂

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#1482000 - 21/12/2018 13:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 104
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
First bit of colour associated with today's offering has just popped up to the north of Goondiwindi.

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#1482001 - 21/12/2018 13:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
wilyms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 163
Loc: Roma, Qld

On the road between Dalby and Roma and can see the towers to the south and west. Have built up significantly in the last half hour

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#1482005 - 21/12/2018 14:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: wilyms]
Nature's Fury Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2490
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Looks like the seabreeze is starting to push in and temperatures are stabilising. Bris has dropped from 34 to 33 and Archerfield 35 to 34. The boundary seems to be around the western suburbs.

Some impressive temp/dewpoints though: Brisbane (33/23), Archerfield (34/24). Inland not so good as to be expected: Amberley (36/20), Gatton (39/18), Toowoomba (35/13).

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#1482006 - 21/12/2018 14:05 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Nature's Fury Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2490
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Higgins building up a storm of his own:

** HEADS UP SOUTH-EAST QLD **

Tomorrow (Saturday) could be the biggest storm day of the season. The atmosphere is expected to be EXTREMELY volatile, with widespread severe storms highly likely and very dangerous supercells possible.

We only see maybe 1 or 2 of these setups every year at the most and Saturday appears to be the day for that to happen!

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#1482015 - 21/12/2018 14:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3650
Loc: Buderim
I'd say thats one of the more sensible assessments I've heard from Higgins. I'd only object to 'highly likely' as opposed to 'could' from the first sentence, and the fact he hasn't said a bust due to early morning activity is also possible.

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#1482016 - 21/12/2018 14:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2869
Loc: Tweed Heads
Storm line emerging at diurnal max. From NW of ROMA to crowdy head in NSW. This is another line in front of the trough line behind it in the west
Weatherzone synoptic showing an embedded low in the trough centred west of NE NSW and it appears this storm line is the outer periphery boundary of this embedded low ( the eastern flank)
512km MOREE radar
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR531.loop.shtml#skip
If you zoom in to see the cells they look like the ones that Sydney have been having.
Looks ok for you storm chasers/ watchers
More storms approaching Sydney current.. probably from the tropical dip in isobars in that region?
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR033.loop.shtml#skip


Edited by crikey (21/12/2018 14:39)
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#1482017 - 21/12/2018 14:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4967
Loc: Wynnum
Thick haze, bordering on sea fog across Moreton Bay. Vis from Wynnum 8km.
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#1482019 - 21/12/2018 14:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3723
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Building nicely, 38.5C atm, plenty of yummy heat.

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#1482020 - 21/12/2018 14:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 648
Loc: Bardon 4065
Nice crisp looking anvils on those storms near Inglewood. Visible on the Toowoomba Airport weather cam.

https://weathercams.airservicesaustralia.com/?airport=toowoomba-airport
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#1482021 - 21/12/2018 14:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Robbie Shenton Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/12/2018
Posts: 11
Loc: Forest Lake, QLD
Hi all, been following the forums for a while now. Just wanted to say hi and introduce myself.
Love the weather discussions amongst you all and especially Ken, Who i follow through SBS Facebook.

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#1482027 - 21/12/2018 15:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 766
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Welcome Robbie

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#1482028 - 21/12/2018 15:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 766
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Satellite lightning images are building nicely.
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1482031 - 21/12/2018 15:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Stormwalker]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2869
Loc: Tweed Heads
Hi stormwalker
Best way to see the progress of precipitation activity where storms may be inbedded is here

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

or have a look at BOM met eye.. Just google that

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5pm ACCESS definitely showing an intensification in precipitation activity on the divide between 28 s ( nth Brisbane to the border.> Tweed
Suggesting the divide will ramp things up in this area 5pm today
Click on the link above
That continues toward midnight
500 hpa westerly
200hpa westerly with border of Jetstream

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
I think l have read Ken say westerly can assist cells over on to the coast..
Looks great weather watch from Brisbane latitude to the border tea time and into midnight at least

------
Welcome Robbie . What a good day to join. Should be some good chatter in the next 30 hrs grin
----
Also ACCESS has an intense precipitation signal from 5pm to at least midnight from 32 s( port stephens to the border(tweed)Tropical dip in isobars and this is likely the region of the east flank of that N/S trough


Edited by crikey (21/12/2018 15:20)
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#1482033 - 21/12/2018 15:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Foehn Correspondent]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7686
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Foehn Correspondent
Nice crisp looking anvils on those storms near Inglewood. Visible on the Toowoomba Airport weather cam.

https://weathercams.airservicesaustralia.com/?airport=toowoomba-airport



Link not working for me for some reason. Says request rejected.

edit: Looks like I can only access it through the main site.

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#1482036 - 21/12/2018 15:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Mega]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 648
Loc: Bardon 4065
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Foehn Correspondent
Nice crisp looking anvils on those storms near Inglewood. Visible on the Toowoomba Airport weather cam.

https://weathercams.airservicesaustralia.com/?airport=toowoomba-airport



Link not working for me for some reason. Says request rejected.

edit: Looks like I can only access it through the main site.


Try it from here Mega Link on the right hand side of the page new live weather camera site

http://www.airservicesaustralia.com/
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My Flickr Page

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#1482038 - 21/12/2018 15:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 439
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
38 at the moment, 44 Apparent temp.

Welcome to the forum Robbie, hope you enjoy the ride grin
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#1482039 - 21/12/2018 15:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Hot with Thunderstorms - 20-22 December 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2869
Loc: Tweed Heads
The centre of an embedded low/ eddy right over the tweed to sth Brisbane 11pm tonight (21/12/2018)
It has strong coral sea northern flank and a strong western flank from southerlies pushing northward.
A tad passed my 'beddy bye' time but some might like to check that out around 11pm
Although LOL . It might keep me awake?

I suggest this could arrive a bit earlier or later as the Sydney trough did and that might be daylight savings or just a faster or slower movement of the trough
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View




Edited by crikey (21/12/2018 15:35)
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