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#1481958 - 21/12/2018 09:48 Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
From Sunday, a strong a High will move over Victoria and stall in the Tasman sea by mid week, extending a strong high pressure ridge over Victoria.

Things will start to heat up from Monday with Mid 30's in the north and temperatures around the high 20s in the South, with clear skys.
A very weak low dipping to the south on Christmas day and boxing day will deliver light southerly winds in the south keeping things around 30C, while the north reaches the high 30s.

Once this clears by late boxing day things will really heat up with current models indicating widespread significant heat on Thursday, Friday before a weak mostly dry change sometime late Friday or Saturday depending on the model you look at. Beyond this model support at the moment is for this heat to build back up as another high moves across the bight right behind the change but model consensus at this range is very low. Due to this I have just extended this thread through to the New Year.





Anyway Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to everyone, enjoy the near perfect Summer Weather over Christmas and Boxing day and may 2019 bring Victoria some of those wonderful Sydney Storms!





Edited by logansi (21/12/2018 09:49)
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#1481982 - 21/12/2018 12:18 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1529
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Cheers logansi for the thread 👍
Yep, going to be potentially a long period of heat
Which will set us up to be a lot drier a lot
Earlier than normal around here

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#1482213 - 22/12/2018 11:27 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1529
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Attention now turns to this thread and the looming
Heat coming our way!
Big dry out period coming up!

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#1482222 - 22/12/2018 12:12 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1529
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Weather app on my phone has 8 days in a row
30c or above

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#1482227 - 22/12/2018 13:01 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2859
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like heat last until hot New year eve then cool down late 1st Jan depends on charts might change.


Edited by chasers addict (22/12/2018 13:06)

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#1482283 - 22/12/2018 15:45 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1482364 - 22/12/2018 18:59 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8025
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Logansi, that'll dry the bush out, hope the periodic rain events keep coming as they have of late. .....if they do, it'll be after a 7-10 day lull!

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#1482370 - 22/12/2018 19:24 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1529
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Accessg showing some signs of possibility
Of shower or storm activity Friday night through
To Sunday?
Its not a widespread rain event, but could be
Isolated falls.
Actually looking at it, probably more cause trouble
Starting fires, might change mind on those type 🤔

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#1482377 - 22/12/2018 20:02 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Still a lot of uncertainty beyond Thursday, here's a look at ACCESSG run for tonight, it been all over the place as to how far south the heat spreads next weekend which is depended on where a very weak trough in the south sits



This will bring the risk of storms from Friday onwards IMO but doesn't look like the falls will be very high, even the change now due Monday looks like mostly falls from 1-5mm with isolated up to 10mm with another ridge pushing in quickly.


Edited by logansi (22/12/2018 20:03)
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#1482455 - 23/12/2018 16:44 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 468
Loc: Hobart
Mildura forecast 46 for Sunday 30th! Very close to a Victora record for December ( 46.6c Robinvale, 1976 ).

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#1482468 - 23/12/2018 18:30 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Just having a quick look at the models and early indications is that even after a stronger change Sunday week the heat could continue well into the new year with Mildura back into the 40s by Wednesday the 2nd.


Stunning, Stunning day here today, top of 21, no wind and no cloud!
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#1482469 - 23/12/2018 18:38 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1529
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yup, looking like a long hot period, looks
Thats the models have up the anti regard
Heat, with temps gone from 35c now up to
38c for Friday and Sunday is now saying 39c
And bugger all strong change on the horizon!

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#1482471 - 23/12/2018 18:45 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1529
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah, it looks like a week change Monday week,
But it fails to really push that hot air away. So
It wont take much for it to spread back down to
Southern vic

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#1482476 - 23/12/2018 19:20 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1529
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Accessg still trying to keep some moisture in the
Picture, with Friday arvo though to Monday offering
1-5mm through southern vic each day. Possibly
5-10mm isolated around rangers.

Very interesting to see what wins out by the
End of week?

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#1482485 - 23/12/2018 20:53 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Accessg still trying to keep some moisture in the
Picture, with Friday arvo though to Monday offering
1-5mm through southern vic each day. Possibly
5-10mm isolated around rangers.

Very interesting to see what wins out by the
End of week?


Yeah, i'm assuming it will be from isolated high based showers/storms?

Mildura forecast sure is something
Tommorrow: 35
Christmas: 39
Boxing day: 41
27th: 44
28th: 42
29th: 43
30th: 46

Pretty much the whole north of the divide is looking at 7 days above 35C, with a couple over 40.

As you can see still likely more to come beyond New Years day. Massive area of heat over 90% of the mainland





Edited by logansi (23/12/2018 20:57)
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#1482506 - 24/12/2018 05:58 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
Gabby Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2868
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
Thanks for the info Logansi and Doogasno. The worry with with this continuous heat predicted for this week is the drying off of undergrowth and the consequent risk of bushfires and the welfare of the very elderly, some of whom may not have air conditioning. Does anyone have any statistics of the longest heatwave Victoria has had?

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#1482520 - 24/12/2018 09:38 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3974
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Victorian record for consecutive 40+ days is 12, at Mildura during the 2009 Black Saturday heatwave. Haven't looked at December records yet.

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#1482522 - 24/12/2018 09:47 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Was going to say pretty much every stations heatwave record should be the week and a half leading into Black Saturday
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1482528 - 24/12/2018 10:14 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: Blair Trewin]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8025
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Victorian record for consecutive 40+ days is 12, at Mildura during the 2009 Black Saturday heatwave. Haven't looked at December records yet.


Well done Blair, love reading your statistics posts smile

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#1482537 - 24/12/2018 11:18 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: Blair Trewin]
Gabby Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2868
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Victorian record for consecutive 40+ days is 12, at Mildura during the 2009 Black Saturday heatwave. Haven't looked at December records yet.

Thanks Blair. 12 consecutive days above 40, at Mildura!! Lets hope the present run of above 40c days doesn't equal that record.

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