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#1482539 - 24/12/2018 11:30 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1529
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
I reckon Mildura will give that record a nudge
To be honest and while weíre at it a lot of othe
Places in north vic might go close as well?

I did here someone say around the traps
That we could be in for a black Saturday type
Summer this year

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#1482548 - 24/12/2018 12:31 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Big thing which may stop any record is Monday week, doubt it will reach 40 in the north, more like 35 before it builds up again.

I do feel like such a large amount of heat circulating the mainland so early in the season may be a concern going forward.
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#1482553 - 24/12/2018 12:46 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8025
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The monsoon trough is hanging around the Aus tropics, and should remain for a week going by the MJO charts. Good chance this large heat build up will bring some humidity down into central Aus towards the end of the week, which may alleviate fire indexes and add a bit more rain to the fronts as they sweep through southern Aus over coming week or two?

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#1482554 - 24/12/2018 12:48 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
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Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah fair point logansi and agree I canít see any
Substantial change in the foreseeable future that
Could break down that inland heat?
And to add to that, rainfall wise nothing over
5-10mm around anywhere either in the future

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#1482566 - 24/12/2018 14:50 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Its nudging on 36C here, dead calm, and hotter than expected.

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#1482591 - 24/12/2018 17:53 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1529
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looking out to the north of where I am(Warragul/hill end/Tanjil/
Erica) the hills are very brown already! Have seen that
Whole area this dry in years

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#1482604 - 24/12/2018 19:48 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
ACCESSG finally hinting at a stronger cold front coming in at the end of the most recent run, Thursday 3rd Jan. But still a long way to go and plenty can and will change.

Merry Christmas everyone and have a fantastic day tomorrow


Edited by logansi (24/12/2018 19:49)
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#1482761 - 26/12/2018 20:40 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Heat really cranks up tomorrow with 44 in Mildura, also a TFB in Mallee and Wimmera with the wind picking up and a weak change in the south.

What happens beyond Monday next week is still all over the place, EC and GFS have the heat moving in a bit more than ACCESS and lasting longer.

ACCESSG also introducing a bit more moisture this weekend than the others. Risk of storms over the weekend hopefully they bring plenty of rain because everything is going to be very dry.

Hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and enjoyed the perfect weather.


Edited by logansi (26/12/2018 20:43)
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#1482765 - 26/12/2018 21:04 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
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Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
MERRy Xmas everyone 👍

Yep logansi, still very hot Tommoz/Friday.
Still moving around a lot regards to rainfall
Amounts and who gets it? But accessg seems
The most bullish on the heavier falls 5-10mm(not
That is heavy)
What ever we get, I think there will be lightning and
I think they will mainly be high base storms, no huge
Moisture quantity with the trough I donít think?

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#1482766 - 26/12/2018 21:15 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
MERRy Xmas everyone 👍

Yep logansi, still very hot Tommoz/Friday.
Still moving around a lot regards to rainfall
Amounts and who gets it? But accessg seems
The most bullish on the heavier falls 5-10mm(not
That is heavy)
What ever we get, I think there will be lightning and
I think they will mainly be high base storms, no huge
Moisture quantity with the trough I donít think?


That's my assumption, sometime i find ACCESS is to widespread with the heavier falls in systems like this, so I read the 5-10 falls as the far more isolated heaviest totals than the model would have you believe.


Edited by logansi (26/12/2018 21:15)
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#1482823 - 27/12/2018 11:42 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
BOM storm forecast for Friday


There is a minor chance of afternoon convection over the eastern ranges and along the sea breeze convergence. The storms on the sea breeze will be short lived and relatively stationary.

The risk in the west and central is more from elevated storms coming in the evening, and into the night. Storms will move south east at around 120km/h with very little or no precip reaching the surface. Again the risk of the storms is very low.



Really hope we don't see any storms.

Getting hot out there, already nearing 40 in Mildura, 31 here in Portland.
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#1482873 - 27/12/2018 17:59 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8025
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A stifling 40C here today before mid arvo seabreeze arrived to take us back into the low 30's.

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#1482880 - 27/12/2018 18:37 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1529
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
38c up here today! Things really staring to
Brown off real quick around here this week!

Gfs has line of precipitation rate 10-15mm
from nor west of Melb down through
Southern strezleckis and continues out through
Yarram area on Sunday, this looks to really be the
Only time in the outlook that we may see half
Decent rain.

Still more heat to get through Tommoz first

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#1482895 - 28/12/2018 03:17 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6455
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Thunder and lightening!
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1482908 - 28/12/2018 09:31 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8025
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Nice morning here, heavily overcast, even the odd drop of rain from time to time, 24C and calm. Looks like a band of rain approaching acc. to the radar.

Thunder would be a nice surprise Ruckle.

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#1482915 - 28/12/2018 10:17 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6455
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Nice enough surprise to post at 315! 36.4 here yesterday, 31.7 already today which is 5th day in a row above 30.
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1482916 - 28/12/2018 10:34 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1529
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Out at Yallourn power station and received about
3 min of big drops which probably half wet the
Ground then that was it! Now suns out and
Feels like we could make 40c lol

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#1482917 - 28/12/2018 10:44 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8025
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Petros
Nice morning here, heavily overcast, even the odd drop of rain from time to time, 24C and calm. Looks like a band of rain approaching acc. to the radar.



Maybe a band of virga would have been a better description.

Despite the cloud, it has inched up to 26.5C here, so if hot air arrives from the Nth as the models suggest, we may see a 10+degC temp rise in only 30 minutes from midday on?


Edited by Petros (28/12/2018 10:46)

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#1482918 - 28/12/2018 10:55 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2859
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Was 25c all night now on rise to 35c at 10.45am.

Looks like Heat line sits half of Victoria until late next week. The Heat too strong for Cool breeze reach Northern Country is awful warm nights.


Edited by chasers addict (28/12/2018 11:00)

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#1482937 - 28/12/2018 13:56 Re: Vic - Christmas - New Year Heatwave 23/12/18 - 01/01/19 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8025
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep CA, a couple of nights of 25C minimum (or more) certainly tires people badly..

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