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#1482458 - 23/12/2018 17:24 NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4656
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The models are lining up for a significant heatwave commencing Christmas Day and extending into the New Year. I don't expect any records to be at risk, with 850 temps peaking at maybe 23-24 over the Sydney area (higher in the Southern inland). Further, the Westerly component in surface winds is not that strong, so conditions on the coast will be moderated by sea breezes on most or all days. I think Sydney OH maxima are overcooked in the first few days, but the inland ones seem right.

From tomorrow 24th, a high will establish itself in the Tasman Sea and sit there for a while, directing a hot N-NW air stream over NSW. The heat looks to be quite dry, with what looks to be fairly clear skies, so showers and storms seem to be off the menu for a while.

BOM Forecasts around Sydney (Dec 25 - Jan 1) are:

Sydney OH: 29 29 30 32 32 34
Parramatta: 32 32 33 36 36 38
Penrith: 35 36 38 40 39 41

As might be expected, the Hunter is similar but a degree or so warmer, the Illawarra similar but a bit cooler. Canberra is expecting seven consecutive 30+ days from tomorrow, five consecutive 35+ from Boxing Day. Former poster "Canberra's Weather" will not be happy. The forecast for Bathurst is similar to that for Canberra but slightly cooler.

As for the end of the heatwave, GFS currently shows a cooldown after New Year's Day, with the heat coming back with a vengeance a couple of days later. It shows the pattern finally breaking down on the 7th. However it's too soon to make any predictions that far out.

We'll see what the other models say, but this morning's seem to be consistent with the above.


Edited by Seabreeze (06/01/2019 20:58)
Edit Reason: shortened thread by a day

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#1482462 - 23/12/2018 17:36 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1223
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Will be interesting to see if any December records are indeed at risk. The Sydney Basin December record is quite a weak one (broken last year), in fact still less than the November record.
Can't see any December records in danger in the Hunter though, just a very hot week between Xmas and New Year.

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#1482472 - 23/12/2018 18:47 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Ben K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2012
Posts: 108
Loc: Central Coast, NSW
Maybe the warmest New Year's Day since 2006?

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#1482486 - 23/12/2018 20:56 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3087
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
ACCESS R at this stage not at all interested, keeps heat well inland. This will be an interesting battle of the models.

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#1482493 - 23/12/2018 22:03 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Kino]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6109
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Kino
ACCESS R at this stage not at all interested, keeps heat well inland. This will be an interesting battle of the models.


And as Steve stated in his very informative original post, it could very well be a battle of the winds.
We've seen time and time again the models not taking into account the Seabreeze affect.

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#1482494 - 23/12/2018 22:07 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3087
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Its not so much that; ACCESS R keeps the 576 line on the NSW Border on Wed which means heat is well inland. Be interesting to see what it does overnight. Originally ACCESS kept the heat in Vic and not for eastern NSW.

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#1482496 - 23/12/2018 22:43 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 1034
Loc: Cammeray
Looks like a fairly constant tailwind for the Sydney to Hobart - maybe that record will go (again)

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#1482500 - 23/12/2018 23:31 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Kino]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6109
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Kino
Its not so much that; ACCESS R keeps the 576 line on the NSW Border on Wed which means heat is well inland. Be interesting to see what it does overnight. Originally ACCESS kept the heat in Vic and not for eastern NSW.


Yep, agree with that. Current models certainly differ.
My point was even the models predicting the heat don't always get the sea breeze account right.

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#1482521 - 24/12/2018 09:42 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4656
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The models are still all agreeing on a significant heat event, mostly moderated on the coast by sea breezes.

The red line (576) - the 'heatwave line' - doesn't reach the central part of the NSW Coast until the 28th, then moves well out into the Tasman. Models vary in the detail.

I'm not expecting any temperatures much out of the ordinary at Sydney OH or other coastal sites - a longish run of sunny high 20s - low 30s. However, the models are showing 40 in Sydney's West and other locations near the coast for the 28th to the 31st.

It will be a potentially record breaking event West of the ranges, with 850 temps in the far West over 28 and surface temperatures over 46 in places.

Again, there looks to be a cooldown for the coast now on New Year's Eve, with the pattern breaking up a few days into the New Year (in time for the traditional rain dance on the SCG).

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#1482523 - 24/12/2018 09:52 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Steve777]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3231
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
From a storm chaser perspective, this may be the first Christmas /New Year period without a storm chase that I can recall. Lots of beach methinks.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1482574 - 24/12/2018 15:34 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3859
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
The most (relatively) extreme heat looks like being along the Murray (on both sides of the border). Some December records may be set on the 30th and both Rutherglen and Wagga look to have decent chances to at least equal their record (at any time of year) of 5 consecutive days over 40.

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#1482606 - 24/12/2018 20:06 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Ben K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2012
Posts: 108
Loc: Central Coast, NSW
Another fairly cool day here. Looking forward to the warmth later in the week!

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#1482610 - 24/12/2018 21:21 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6109
Loc: Dural
Thanks for the facts Blair. Always very interesting.

As for the upcoming heatwave, I'm just happy that I'm heading to the south coast for a week from the 29th. Hoping that the sea breeze will moderate things somewhat. If not, there'll always be the beach to adjourn to so I can cool off.
In saying that, it'll be a true summer holiday. Lot's of heat and humidity, blue bottle stings, salty evenings, morning beach walks, dealing with cranky kids, a bit of very amateur fishing, bike riding, bush walks, morning coffees at the local shops while picking up the daily papers, and the obligatory visit to the local country RSL Bistro for an evening meal.
I just wish there was more in the weather cycle that is forecast than heat.

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#1482612 - 24/12/2018 22:05 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Steve777]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 558
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
BOM heatwave service indicates that the worst of the heat so far looks to be starting on Friday. If you look at the area of severe heatwave. It almost forms a perfect Trough line. Although the severity seems to exist on the lack of cool nights due to the heatwave.

Anyways, WISHING EVERYONE A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS





Edited by ashestoashes (24/12/2018 22:09)

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#1482639 - 25/12/2018 09:56 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4656
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Just thought I'd capture this for posterity. ACCESS 5:00PM 3/1/2019 from this morning's run. Probably won't happen and most won't want it to, but interesting:

850 temps of 30 over much of NSW including Sydney:



40 isotherm reaches coast near Sydney, 44 in some suburbs:



A significant cool change arrives later that day.

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#1482641 - 25/12/2018 10:04 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Ben K]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1223
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Ben K
Maybe the warmest New Year's Day since 2006?


Looks like the peak will be New Years Eve now.
Singleton still has it's Jan record from New Years Day 2006, 45.9C, which was an all time record until 47.2C last year, Feb 2017.
It was the 2nd hottest day at Sydney OH at the time, now 3rd hottest.
New Year's Eve looking like around 42-43C in the Hunter, not sure if we will approach records for those with long term records, Tocal's record is 44.2C from 1990. (which was a very hot December generally)

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#1482645 - 25/12/2018 10:53 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Sidney Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 617
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Don't think many people would want to be camping to see the new years fireworks this year.

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#1482649 - 25/12/2018 12:06 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Ben K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2012
Posts: 108
Loc: Central Coast, NSW
Going to be hot, that's for sure.

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#1482656 - 25/12/2018 16:35 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3087
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I see WxZone has really ramped down temps for the coast - Wollongongs forecast is only 30 now and early 30s for Albion Park.

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#1482662 - 25/12/2018 18:16 Re: NSW Christmas / New Year Heatwave & Storms - December 25 2018 to January 5 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Ben K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2012
Posts: 108
Loc: Central Coast, NSW
Hope everyone had a nice Christmas Day. Great weather. Interesting little fact: today is the last Christmas Day to fall on Tuesday until 2029. In 2023, Christmas Day will be on Monday and then in 2024 on Wednesday due to the leap year.

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