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#1484876 - 09/01/2019 19:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
Definitely worth the $6 a month. All those lovely goodies.
Nice present for someone.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/join/


That cloud picture you have posted RainDammit' looks like the centre of the low is inland and l suppose from the mid layers or uppers, it may be.
Underneath at surface things are quite weak currently

Here is a snap of radar with wind profile highlighted and best bet marked for the centre of rotation on the coast Lucinda point 1002.5 hpa.
I would think that in a weak transitioning system it would not be unusual to have the vertical stack somewhat skewed

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#1484877 - 09/01/2019 19:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25412
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
certainly a chance of big rainfall totals with storms Ilurain, but i dont think its going to be as widespread as its being shown. problem is catchments up there are already full as you probably well aware.
personally i would let the weather get in the way of my plans but having said that if you get stuck, could be in worse places!
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2019 total - 539.8mm (269mm)
February 2019 total - 1111.8mm (297mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 1651.6mm (1129mm)

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#1484879 - 09/01/2019 19:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2847
Loc: Chillagoe
Like Mick10 said, don't let the rain stop you. I love it up here in the wet season, just beautiful, and it's usually cooler if it's raining. Rain up here is much more fun than down south. :))

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#1484881 - 09/01/2019 19:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: iluvrain]
Salty Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/12/2018
Posts: 38
Loc: Belgian Gardens
Go for it. This system is as likely to go to Canberra as anywhere else. I have held off going to Dingo Beach for nigh on 10 days because of Penny. Truth be told, I am tired of her.
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Weather Sceptic

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#1484883 - 09/01/2019 19:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2847
Loc: Chillagoe
If we're really really lucky she'll come out past us, and maybe well get another 13mm of vertical rain for half an hour, like we did with Owen on his way back again. frown

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#1484887 - 09/01/2019 20:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: iluvrain]
KBO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2015
Posts: 111
Loc: Cairns
Yes, iluvrain I would still go for Cairns, Take a lot of rain to close the Hwy with the new upgrades at Cattle Creek, Frosty Mango is still a low spot... But the forecast tomorrow around the Ingham area looks to be maybe 60/80mm Ex Owen dropped 300/600mm of rain. I know the catchments a somewhat full But it would have to dump 250mm + in the next 12 hrs to give any problems and I don't see that happing...


Edited by KBO (09/01/2019 20:09)

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#1484888 - 09/01/2019 20:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2854
Loc: Tweed Heads
The Daily mail is at it again. Street Drama. Spot the mistakes in this news flash.
http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/penny%e2%80%99s-revenge-cyclone-to-dump-over-one-months-worth-of-rain-on-australia%e2%80%99s-east-coast-as-it-swings-back-towards-the-country-bringing-devastating-storms/ar-BBS066z?li=AAgfIYZ&OCID=HPDHP
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#1484889 - 09/01/2019 20:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: crikey]
KBO Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2015
Posts: 111
Loc: Cairns
O dear, Don't you love this stuff... Quick I must pop out to Coles... laugh

A treacherous cyclone is set to wreak havoc across Queensland over the next few days, as it nears closer to the coast.

Experts have warned Cyclone Penny could cause over one monthís worth of rain, 200mm,

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#1484891 - 09/01/2019 20:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: iluvrain]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2474
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Originally Posted By: iluvrain
Any sage advice

I have followed Penny Up and Down and around for days now ..

Sorry this post is not Technical!

Have to make a decision now.

Its my BirthdayThursday

Months ago I booked an expensive night in Cairns for Thursday y night

So do I leave Forrest Beach tomorrow for Cairns ..or is Met eye 👁 Correct and Ingham may get. 200mls + over next two days ..and if they do could I potentially be cut off .
The answer probably is if I go we will flood with Torrential rain and if I give up my night we will get zippo.
Anyone have a better answer??


If it was me, I would be going to Cairns, worse that can happen is road might cut for a few hrs at Ingham. I made this same mistake just a few weeks ago, wont fall for it again, next time I will go - takes a LOT of rain to make a problem up here
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#1484893 - 09/01/2019 21:31 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
iluvrain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 425
Loc: Forrest Beach/Allingham
Thanks for all the replies, I havenít canceled so I guess I am going.

To be honest it wasnt just the thought of getting cut off, its also the fear of missing another Rain/Storm event. I have a Incredible/Rotten Luck track record of being out of town for any Major event ..be it Cyclone, Flood Or Torrential Rain and Storm.

If I could guarantee it was going to Rain and Storm all night/day I would give up the five starMotel for the bliss of laying in bed listening to it pour all night.

Question - is Penny moving a lot slower than this morning? Wondering why the last Severe Weather Warning took Ingham out and now only goes Nth as far as Rollingstone
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#1484899 - 09/01/2019 22:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2847
Loc: Chillagoe
cry
Fizzled
There's more left of Nora than there is of Penny

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#1484901 - 09/01/2019 22:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: cold@28]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7678
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: cold@28
cry
Fizzled
There's more left of Nora than there is of Penny


lol

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#1484916 - 10/01/2019 09:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Rainrunner Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 1362
Loc: Whitsundays
Ex. Penny is becoming more active this morning. She looks better today than the last couple of days looking at the IR Sat loop, as well as on the Bowen Radar.

https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR243.loop.shtml
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Cyclone Chasee: Debbie 2017, Ului 2010, Dylan & Ita 2014

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#1484919 - 10/01/2019 09:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25412
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
convergence zone with penny and the trough system created some massive falls overnight

Weather Situation: At 4am AEST Thursday, ex-tropical cyclone Penny was located inland, over the southern Herbert and Lower Burdekin. A trough associated with ex-tropical cyclone Penny is expected to move northwards along the tropical east coast during the next 24 hours and may produce areas of heavy rainfall.
Locally heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to occur this morning in coastal and adjacent inland areas between Proserpine and Townsville, particularly with thunderstorms.
Isolated six hourly rainfall totals between 150mm and 200mm are possible.
Locations which may be affected include Bowen, Ayr, Charters Towers, Collinsville, and Clare.
Strathbogie, south of Ayr recorded 130mm in 3hr to 3am and 266mm since 9am Wednesday.
Groper Creek recorded 108mm rainfall in 3 hr to 3am and 111mm since 9am Wednesday.
Ridgelands Alert, west of Mackay, recorded 145mm since 9am Wednesday.

since this warning was put out, Strathbogie now over 400mm mark.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
January 2019 total - 539.8mm (269mm)
February 2019 total - 1111.8mm (297mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 1651.6mm (1129mm)

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#1484928 - 10/01/2019 11:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Rainrunner]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2847
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Rainrunner
Ex. Penny is becoming more active this morning. She looks better today than the last couple of days looking at the IR Sat loop, as well as on the Bowen Radar.

https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR243.loop.shtml

I thought so too, I would have sworn she was dead last night.

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#1484938 - 10/01/2019 13:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mick10]
cycloid Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 28/12/2018
Posts: 2
Whilst good to see for the farmers, the totals aren't massive by Qld standards. Marcia dumped 250mm in 3 hrs, Debbie 600+ in 24 hrs, both over substantial areas. Penny system has been borderline in meeting BoM severe weather thresholds.

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#1484955 - 10/01/2019 16:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: crikey]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 189
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Originally Posted By: crikey
The Daily mail is at it again....


OMG that is funny. Total hogwash, but funny. Bad Daily Mail.

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#1484999 - 10/01/2019 19:59 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 189
Loc: Andergrove QLD
The remains of Ex Penny. 5:20pm image from Himawaricast on Jcsat2B.


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#1485005 - 10/01/2019 20:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
vorts Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 30
EPS ens think there's a reasonable chance penny may have another go in the NW.
Likely based on a returning mjo signal within the indo in ten days.
https://imgur.com/o6vyid2

https://imgur.com/vq0V3FB



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#1485011 - 10/01/2019 20:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2847
Loc: Chillagoe
Will there be enough of her left to still call her Penny?

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