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#1483504 - 01/01/2019 08:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Rawhide]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 909
Loc: North Point
Originally Posted By: Rawhide
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Still looking quite elongated. Not very sexy at all. I wonder if penny will ever really happen. This could be one of the times when the differing classification standards between organizations becomes confusing


I was just about to say the same thing. Would not surprise me at all if the cyclone warning was downgraded later this morning, on account of Penny not getting her act in gear quickly enough.


Jinxed it, haha
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#1483505 - 01/01/2019 08:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Happy Birthday Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2173
Loc: Mareeba
Welcome Penny hopefully you follow in your brother Owen's footsteps.
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#1483506 - 01/01/2019 08:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Happy Birthday Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 2173
Loc: Mareeba
Looks like she is lining up Weipa. At least we will get some obs with this one
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#1483507 - 01/01/2019 08:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13341
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Happy New Year, and Happy Birthday to Penny!

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 7:41 am EST on Tuesday 1 January 2019

Headline:
Tropical cyclone Penny has formed in the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria. Expected to cross the coast near Weipa this afternoon.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Pormpuraaw to Cape York, including adjacent inland areas.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Penny at 7:00 am AEST [6:30 am ACST]:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 12.7 degrees South 140.9 degrees East, estimated to be 110 kilometres west of Weipa and 115 kilometres northwest of Aurukun.

Movement: east southeast at 8 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Penny has formed in the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria. Penny is expected to move east towards Cape York Peninsula and cross the coast near Weipa this afternoon as a category 1 system. The cyclone may reach category 2 if it moves slower than expected and spends more time over water.

Hazards:
GALES, with peak gusts in excess of 90km/h, are occurring on the western Cape York Peninsula coast between Mapoon and Aurukun, and may extend to remaining areas between Cape York and Pormpuraaw later today. Isolated damaging wind gusts may occur otherwise with monsoonal thunderstorms over the Torres Strait Islands, and a separate Severe Weather Warning is current for these conditions.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely across Cape York Peninsula and parts of the North Tropical Coast today and Wednesday.

A Flood Watch remains current for coastal catchments north of Cardwell, including catchments across the Cape York Peninsula. A separate Severe Weather Warning is also current for rainfall on the northeast tropical coast.

TIDES will be higher than normal through Torres Strait and along the northwest Cape York Peninsula over the next couple of days.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Cape York and Cape Keerweer. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Recommended Action:
People between Cape York and Pormpuraaw should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 11am AEST.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am AEST Tuesday 01 January [10:30 am ACST Tuesday 01 January].
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Bilyana FNQ

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#1483508 - 01/01/2019 08:55 Re: Tropical low (08P) - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS r showing some east /west elongation along the trough line today.
Tracking eastward slowly today.
The central core of TC Penny the far nth east coast tomorrow morning.
Weipa 1000hpa 7.40am
some increase of wind and gusts on coconut and Thursday island .
Lockhart river > Dew point 25.1 deg c

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/observations/qldall.shtml?ref=hdr


Edited by crikey (01/01/2019 08:57)
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#1483512 - 01/01/2019 09:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Rawhide]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5158
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: Rawhide
Originally Posted By: Rawhide
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Still looking quite elongated. Not very sexy at all. I wonder if penny will ever really happen. This could be one of the times when the differing classification standards between organizations becomes confusing


I was just about to say the same thing. Would not surprise me at all if the cyclone warning was downgraded later this morning, on account of Penny not getting her act in gear quickly enough.


Jinxed it, haha
yep. She is not the most attractive girl though. Typical qld barely there system. Maybe she will blossom in the coral sea

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#1483514 - 01/01/2019 09:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5158
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
At least we will get direct observations for a change. Will be interesting to compare actual data to the satellite measurements/estimates.

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#1483521 - 01/01/2019 09:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
LonnyDave Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 08/05/2018
Posts: 44
Question from afar. Once Penny enters the Coral Sea what are the chances it will reform and cross the Queensland coast as a cyclone?

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#1483523 - 01/01/2019 10:03 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13341
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Some models at this stage indicate that it will reform, and then approach the QLD coast next week. A week is a lifetime in model runs though, so much can change.
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Bilyana FNQ

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#1483531 - 01/01/2019 10:42 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 235
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Cyclone Penny from Himawari 8 this morning at 8am. Vis, B4 and B5 channels used. Looks pretty bland at the cloud tops.


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#1483533 - 01/01/2019 10:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3264
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Bland? That is a beautiful cirrus shielding with poleward outflow channels, indicative of a system that can rapidly intensify. Even has the look of her starting to form a CDO and an eye.

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#1483535 - 01/01/2019 11:00 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 235
Loc: Andergrove QLD
I really want an eye, but I may have to wait until it gets into the Coral Sea.

The larger picture at 8am with phase and everything...


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#1483544 - 01/01/2019 11:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
batty Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 483
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge
Amazing images L jet !
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#1483547 - 01/01/2019 12:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5991
I think one of the less obvious things to also consider is any potential effects on Penny’s track from the secondary multiple small lows off the north coast along the monsoon trough. In saying that, any effect may only amount to a small wobble or deviation in Penny’s track after it gets to the other side of the Cape but the westernmost low is a bit punchy.

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#1483554 - 01/01/2019 13:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13341
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 11:00 am EST on Tuesday 1 January 2019

Headline:
Tropical cyclone Penny is moving slowly east and expected to cross the coast near Weipa this afternoon.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Pormpuraaw to Cape York, including adjacent inland areas.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Penny at 10:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 12.7 degrees South 141.1 degrees East, estimated to be 90 kilometres west of Weipa and 100 kilometres northwest of Aurukun.

Movement: east at 9 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Penny formed in the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria earlier this morning. Penny is moving eastwards towards Cape York Peninsula and is expected to cross the coast near Weipa this afternoon as a category 1 system. The cyclone may reach category 2 if it moves slower than expected and spends more time over water.

Hazards:
GALES, with gusts up to 120 km/h are occurring on the western Cape York Peninsula coast between Cape York and Aurukun. Gales are expected to extend south to Cape Keerweer and to adjacent inland areas of western Cape York Peninsula this afternoon and evening as the cyclone approaches the coast. Gales may extend further south to Pormpuraaw later today if the cyclone takes a more southerly path.

Isolated damaging wind gusts may occur otherwise with monsoonal thunderstorms over the Torres Strait Islands and northeast Cape York Peninsula, and a separate Severe Weather Warning is current for these conditions.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely across Cape York Peninsula and parts of the North Tropical Coast today and Wednesday.

A Flood Watch remains current for coastal catchments north of Cardwell, including catchments across the Cape York Peninsula. A separate Severe Weather Warning is also current for rainfall on the northeast tropical coast.

TIDES will be higher than normal through Torres Strait and along the northwest Cape York Peninsula over the next couple of days.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Cape York and Cape Keerweer. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Recommended Action:
People between Cape York and Pormpuraaw should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 2pm AEST.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm AEST Tuesday 01 January.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1483563 - 01/01/2019 13:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 229
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I think one of the less obvious things to also consider is any potential effects on Penny’s track from the secondary multiple small lows off the north coast along the monsoon trough. In saying that, any effect may only amount to a small wobble or deviation in Penny’s track after it gets to the other side of the Cape but the westernmost low is a bit punchy.



Ken, I like what you mentioned earlier about Wind Shear. I know the usual pundits may complain about the system not firing as they'd like, however the reality is when one looks at the level of Wind Shear around the System itself (in knots) - particularly to the North and North West, it appears consistent with expectations I think.

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#1483575 - 01/01/2019 15:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6860
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
The next few TC update should be very interesting for the QLD coast.
http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh0819.gif

Watch this space!


Edited by Mathew (01/01/2019 15:52)
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> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (04-17-19_ 06:23 pm) Yr 1261mm / Weekly rain 0.0mm month 5.4mm / 0.0mm

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#1483578 - 01/01/2019 16:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Westy80 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 143
Loc: Weipa
Bit confused here and need help. Can someone help with with current approx location of TC Penny? Here in Weipa it's been so quiet for a couple of hours. No rain, wind, nothing? I'm reading where people are suggesting it's making landfall? Surely this is incorrect. Any help would be appreciated

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#1483580 - 01/01/2019 16:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 235
Loc: Andergrove QLD
To me it looks like you are in kind of an eye. A calm zone. It should pick up again.

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#1483582 - 01/01/2019 16:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3711
Loc: Buderim
My impression is that the system has a large eye/center currently over Weipa. The heaviest activity is to the north of the center/eye and may move further east to impact Weipa later tonight.

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