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#1483218 - 30/12/2018 18:01 Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6829
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (01-18-19_ 05:56 pm) Yr 21.6mm / Weekly rain 4.5mm month 60.0mm / 0.6mm

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#1483219 - 30/12/2018 18:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6829
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
There is now a Tropical cyclone watch for the GOC waters.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml





Edited by Mathew (30/12/2018 18:12)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (01-18-19_ 05:56 pm) Yr 21.6mm / Weekly rain 4.5mm month 60.0mm / 0.6mm

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#1483237 - 30/12/2018 19:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5156
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
yep. Probable future Penny might wind up being as interesting to watch as Owen was. Lots of doubt as to what she will become and where she will go.

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#1483238 - 30/12/2018 19:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Brett Guy]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6829
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
I am with you there.

It's is going to be very interesting to see where these go over the next few days.

I am with you there.

_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > 2018 tl 903.0mm - Decem month 223.2mm - 275.82mm
> 01/01/2019 1:46pm (01-18-19_ 05:56 pm) Yr 21.6mm / Weekly rain 4.5mm month 60.0mm / 0.6mm

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#1483240 - 30/12/2018 19:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13242
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 4:32 pm EST on Sunday 30 December 2018

Headline:
Cyclone Watch has been issued for the west coast of the Peninsula.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Kowanyama to the Torres Strait Islands.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm AEST [3:30 pm ACST]:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 75 kilometres of 13.2 degrees South 142.9 degrees East, estimated to be 130 kilometres east southeast of Weipa and 130 kilometres east of Aurukun.

Movement: west at 13 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is forecast to deepen today while moving in a westwards direction across Cape York Peninsula. The tropical low is expected to intensify as it moves over Gulf of Carpentaria waters on Monday and at this stage it is rated a high chance of forming into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday.

Hazards:
GALES, with peak gusts in excess of 90km/h, are expected to become more likely across far north Queensland into Monday, particularly about Torres Strait and Cape York. Depending on the movement and development of the tropical low it is possible that these GALES may extend southwards to Kowanyama on Tuesday.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely across far north Queensland over the next few days.

TIDES are expected to become higher than predicted through Torres Strait over the next couple of days and it is possible that some islands may see water levels that approach the Highest Astronomical Tide on the high tide on Monday and Tuesday.

A Flood Watch remains current for coastal catchments north of Cardwell, including catchments across the Cape York Peninsula. A separate Severe Weather Warning is also current for far north Queensland.

Recommended Action:
People between Kowanyama and the Torres Strait Islands should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Sunday 30 December [10:30 pm ACST Sunday 30 December].

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1483254 - 30/12/2018 21:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3093
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Really starting to get organised in the uppers - poleward outllow channels starting to organise which is very helpful for the system to deepen as it sucks away the drier dead air from the LLCC. You can see them on the satpic as that high streaky cloud to the south of the system spreading polewards.

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#1483261 - 30/12/2018 22:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 898
Loc: North Point
A story of two models.

EC has the cyclone crossing the coast between Bowen and Airlie Beach on Sunday January 6th, a low-end Category 2 (989 hPa)

At the same time, GFS sticks the system right out near the edge of the Eastern Region at virtually the same intensity.

GFS has the cyclone a little further to the north once it reaches the Coral Sea.
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1483275 - 31/12/2018 00:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25383
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 10:41 pm EST on Sunday 30 December 2018

Headline:
Tropical low is approaching the west coast of Cape York Peninsula. Cyclone Watch remains current.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Kowanyama to Saibai Island, extending to adjacent inland areas.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 10:00 pm AEST [9:30 pm ACST]:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 75 kilometres of 13.0 degrees South 142.0 degrees East, estimated to be 45 kilometres south southeast of Weipa and 50 kilometres northeast of Aurukun.

Movement: west northwest at 17 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is approaching the west coast of Cape York Peninsula. It is expected to intensify as it moves over Gulf of Carpentaria waters on Monday and is rated a high chance of forming into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday.

Hazards:
GALES, with peak gusts in excess of 90km/h, will become more likely across far north Queensland on Monday, particularly about Torres Strait and Cape York. Depending on the movement and development of the tropical low it is possible that these GALES may extend southwards to Kowanyama on Tuesday.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely across far north Queensland over the next few days.

TIDES are expected to become higher than predicted through Torres Strait over the next couple of days and some islands may see water levels that exceed the Highest Astronomical Tide on the high tides on Monday and Tuesday.

A Flood Watch remains current for coastal catchments north of Cardwell, including catchments across the Cape York Peninsula. A separate Severe Weather Warning is also current for far north Queensland.

Recommended Action:
People between Kowanyama and the Torres Strait Islands should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Monday 31 December [4:30 am ACST Monday 31 December].
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
November 2018 total - 25.0mm (58mm)
December 2018 total - 107.4mm (125mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 984.8mm (1107mm)

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#1483286 - 31/12/2018 08:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1964
Loc: Mareeba
She was keen as to get into those soupy Gulf waters. She shot across the cape.
_________________________
YTD 52.4mm

Daily Obs

Averages

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#1483296 - 31/12/2018 09:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5156
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Still messy but should intensify pretty rapidly now you would think. Question now is how long does it get over gulf waters and how far south will it move

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#1483299 - 31/12/2018 09:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Brett Guy]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 973
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 7:27 am EST on Monday 31 December 2018
Headline:
Tropical low continues to develop over the Gulf. Cyclone warning declared between Cape York and Cape Keerweer.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Cape Keerweer to Cape York.
Watch Zone
Remaining areas between Kowanyama and Saibai Island, including adjacent inland areas.
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Tropical Low at 7:00 am AEST [6:30 am ACST]:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 12.9 degrees South 140.3 degrees East, estimated to be 175 kilometres west of Weipa and 160 kilometres west northwest of Aurukun.
Movement: west at 20 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is continuing to move west over the Gulf of Carpentaria while developing further. There is a high chance that it will develop into a tropical cyclone early on Tuesday. The system is then expected to turn back towards the Cape York Peninsula coast on Tuesday.
Hazards:
GALES, with peak gusts in excess of 90km/h, may develop on Tuesday in coastal and adjacent inland areas between Torres Strait and Kowanyama if the system develops into a tropical cyclone. Isolated damaging wind gusts may occur otherwise with thunderstorms over Cape York Peninsula today, and a separate Severe Weather Warning is current for these conditions.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely across far north Queensland over the next few days.

TIDES will be higher than predicted through Torres Strait and the northwest Cape over the next couple of days. Some Torres Strait islands may see water levels that exceed the Highest Astronomical Tide on the high tides on Monday and Tuesday.

A Flood Watch remains current for coastal catchments north of Cardwell, including catchments across the Cape York Peninsula. A separate Severe Weather Warning is also current for far north Queensland.

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#1483300 - 31/12/2018 09:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 151
Loc: Andergrove QLD
The gulf this morning at 7:30am. Himawaricast image from Jcsat 2B. Received directly via satellite by me. Full resolution crop.


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#1483303 - 31/12/2018 10:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18833
Loc: The Beach.
The models are starting to line up regarding future track with EC, GFS and CMC currently modelling a track back east out into the Coral Sea and a coastal crossing somewhere between Ingham and Bowen . Early days but it's nice to see some consensus as they were all over the shop a couple of days back.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1483305 - 31/12/2018 10:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7681
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Great image Learjet

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#1483332 - 31/12/2018 13:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 151
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Thanks Petros. Looking forward to receiving some nice fully developed cyclones image from it.

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#1483336 - 31/12/2018 13:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Learjet]
Unsettled Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/03/2010
Posts: 220
Loc: Trinity Beach
That's awesome Learjet!
How much do they sting you for that?
(Or do you have to be a Stonemason?) wink
_________________________
Please don't feed the troll. Unless it's me.
Then feed it rum, and sit back to enjoy the show.

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#1483368 - 31/12/2018 14:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 318
Loc: Mackay, QLD
JTWC track map

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#1483370 - 31/12/2018 15:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3374
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
That JTWC track is spot on to most current forecasts at the moment. Just on the western side of CYP and develops further in the GOC before weakening as moves back east over land and short trip into the CS..again?

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#1483374 - 31/12/2018 15:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Unsettled]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 151
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Originally Posted By: Unsettled
That's awesome Learjet!
How much do they sting you for that?
(Or do you have to be a Stonemason?) wink


Hi Unsettled. The setup cost me nothing as I already had most of the gear for my job as Evil Mad Scientist. wink But if you start from scratch it might cost around the $1000 - $2000 mark for Himawaricast. For the hardware side you need a 2.3m+ dish, C band LNBF and DVB-S2 data receiver. Himawaricast is a rebroadcast of Himawari 8 on Jcsat2B, transponder freq 4148H. You get 14 different wavelength filters to play with at your choosing from visible light to far infrared, for water vapor to different cloud height etc.

For software I use Kencast, Sataid for animations and Xrit2pic for full res images to decode the HRIT files. Full disc images are transmitted every 10 minutes. More often for Japan area.

C band is relatively impervious to cloud cover so as long as the wind doesn't blow the dish away I should still have signal.


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#1483380 - 31/12/2018 16:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Penny - GOC/Coral Sea - Dec 18/Jan 19 [Re: Mathew]
Tailwind Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 50
Loc: Mackay
Hi Learjet,

Which part of the Grove are you at?

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