Does this mean more high pressure overall? Could not the same trend be achieved if there is the same amount of high pressure, but just broken up into smaller individual cells?

A lot of the influence on the high pressure belt is where the jetstream splits or buckles. The jetstream can be straight around a tight polar vortext and everything moves west to east quickly. It can get bendy with lots of buckles and everything slows down. Buckles can break of loops creating cut off lows that are near stationary. The jetstream can split with an upper level high sitting in the split.

Rossby waves also transmit instability from Tropics to the higher lattitudes. When the IOD and ENSO are favourable tropical activity increases to Australia's northwest, and Rossby waves transmit this instability to the SE and there is more instability over the rest of Australia. When IOD/ENSO not favourable more tendency you get more stability and maybe more high pressure, but I think this is more an upper level thing than lower levels. And favourable ENSO/IOD over north Australia will also expand low pressure from the north pushing the high pressure further south.

The highs have to meet certain a intensity/pressure gradient to contribute to the count on those maps:

” The intensity of anticyclones in terms of gradients of pressure is required to be at least 0.075 hPa per degree of latitude squared, as averaged within a 5 degree (~550 km) radius of the centre of the anticyclone. “

Happy New Year 2019 everyone!
I just heard on 9’s Today Show that 2019 is forecast to be overall hot and dry for eastern Australia. Does anyone know where they could be getting this information? Thanks.

Same place all long range forecasts come from , out of their ar$e. Pays not to ignore bom though, forecast chance of a shower this morning, I thought gee that’s a long shot, left work boots and campchair out on lawn overnight. And sure enough , 2mm in gauge and in work boots.

Long range forecasts come from various places. Of course from Bom and their excellent climatologists. Also from other sources like A climatologist based at the USQ(University Of southern QLD). Here is an article from a USQ Newsletter from last year.
"Professor Stone was recently elected President of the WMO’s Commission for Agricultural Meteorology and is the first Australian to be selected for this role.

The four-year position will see Professor Stone lead the Commission, which will prioritise the need for better services for farmers and agribusiness (ranging from localised weather forecasts to seasonal climate outlooks) and better weather and climate risk management.

“There is a greater need than ever for the knowledge and expertise of agrometeorologists to assist farmers and the wider agricultural community and for more research and technology development in agrometeorology,” Professor Stone said.

“Now more than ever, we need to better prepare farmers for extremes of climate but also enable them to become more resilient.”

The Commission’s key areas of focus for 2018 to 2022 will include drought research and management, issues related to global food security, weather and climate services for agriculture and risk management associated with extreme weather and climate patterns.

Professor Stone currently leads USQ’s Fundamental Climate Science Research program and is Director of the University’s Centre for Applied Climate Sciences.

He is recognised as a global leader in climate science research and is also an expert team leader within the UN Commission for Climatology."

I read an interview with him in a northern QLD regional paper before it went behind a paywall. His forecast was rather grim for rain prospects. Anyway, everybody can make up their own minds about seasonal forecasts.
Cheers

I heard a rumble of thunder when leaving Mount Gravatt earlier. I am now at the RBH at Herston and stuck in my car due to a heavy shower...good problem to have though

well that explains the 0.7mm I saw in the gauge this morning. I was wondering when that fell, thought I hadn't reset the gauge maybe...lol.

3.8mm at Wynnum North since 0900.

We could well break the ridge record at this rate.

Some lovely overcast and drizzly weather this morning at the Tweed.Could of had a couple of mm. So happy that rain could water my seedlings as you can smell the chlorine in the water.
Are the dams / water storage low/
--
I have been disappointed with ACCESS precipitation forecast in both position and intensity at times. It handles the bigger more obvious scenarios like troughing but has difficulty with weaker scenarios.
I noticed l was using the tab .. 7 day at 6hr intervals.
I have now selected 3 day at 3 hr intervals. I notice the precipitation map shows different results and in fact was more accurate today than the 7 day option.
I suppose the 3 day tab is a higher resolution?
Anyway .. I will try this 3 day option for awhile and see how she fairs.
and you need to zoom in to the state.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

Yeah, first 3 days are the higher resolution ACCESS-R model and the remainder is the lower resolution ACCESS-G.

3 mm of
rain here at Sunnybank Hills today. Our first rainfall of the month and year.

Very intense rain in this onshore cell and some good lightning and thunder. Anyone else getting this?

Still going strong! Very powerful slow-moving storm here.

Stretton and Calamvale got 47 and 46 mm from this. I think there will be heavier falls recorded in Corinda, Pullenvale and Jindalee when the gauges update.

I was surprised when I checked my rain gauge this morning I vaguely remember it teeming in the early hours of this morning 41mm all up from yesterday and early this morning. North east of Beenleigh No official BOM rain gauges near me. Logan Central would be the closest but readings there are always different to the rainfall here Pleased to hear others south of Brisbane received good falls also.

Very surprised to find we had 10.3mm fall here overnight as I didn't hear a thing (actually looked at the raingauge several times through half asleep eyes I was that surprised...lol), nice to read of some of those higher 40 - 50mm amounts falling elsewhere nearby.

Not a drop out here. Looks grim for any drops for the near future.

Official gauge here has 34 mm, nice unexpected drop. Started around 10.30 and went to sleep listening to it, noice.
DD

And on another note, kids got me a weather station for xmas, nothin super flash, its a Digitech. It was affordable for them, now to work it out and set it up. Woohoo
DD