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#1483802 - 03/01/2019 09:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3711
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato


The 1st map shows the change in the frequency of highs in summer since 1970 while the 2nd map shows the change averaged across all seasons. The frequency values are calculated from the number of highs per degree of latitude squared per time block. The caveat is that it won't indicate how suddenly or slowly the change has happened unless you look at the time series graphs (but they do generally show the change has been gradual and fairly sustained).



Does this mean more high pressure overall? Could not the same trend be achieved if there is the same amount of high pressure, but just broken up into smaller individual cells?

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#1483803 - 03/01/2019 09:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3711
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: crikey
I am not sure MEGA. I have not been following for awhile.
That is just what l saw on ACCESS 7 day forecast for the SH.
BOM have a few special climate reports from similar circumstances. Blocking Highs in the Tasman. cause heatwaves in VIC and Tasmania no 63 or 64?
I believe the meteorologists use the term teleconnections
In this case, how does whats going on in higher latitudes affect the high pressure belt.
OR? what else


A lot of the influence on the high pressure belt is where the jetstream splits or buckles. The jetstream can be straight around a tight polar vortext and everything moves west to east quickly. It can get bendy with lots of buckles and everything slows down. Buckles can break of loops creating cut off lows that are near stationary. The jetstream can split with an upper level high sitting in the split.

Rossby waves also transmit instability from Tropics to the higher lattitudes. When the IOD and ENSO are favourable tropical activity increases to Australia's northwest, and Rossby waves transmit this instability to the SE and there is more instability over the rest of Australia. When IOD/ENSO not favourable more tendency you get more stability and maybe more high pressure, but I think this is more an upper level thing than lower levels. And favourable ENSO/IOD over north Australia will also expand low pressure from the north pushing the high pressure further south.

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#1483804 - 03/01/2019 09:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5992
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato


The 1st map shows the change in the frequency of highs in summer since 1970 while the 2nd map shows the change averaged across all seasons. The frequency values are calculated from the number of highs per degree of latitude squared per time block. The caveat is that it won't indicate how suddenly or slowly the change has happened unless you look at the time series graphs (but they do generally show the change has been gradual and fairly sustained).



Does this mean more high pressure overall? Could not the same trend be achieved if there is the same amount of high pressure, but just broken up into smaller individual cells?

The highs have to meet certain a intensity/pressure gradient to contribute to the count on those maps:

” The intensity of anticyclones in terms of gradients of pressure is required to be at least 0.075 hPa per degree of latitude squared, as averaged within a 5 degree (~550 km) radius of the centre of the anticyclone. “

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#1483807 - 03/01/2019 09:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1209
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Happy New Year 2019 everyone!
I just heard on 9’s Today Show that 2019 is forecast to be overall hot and dry for eastern Australia. Does anyone know where they could be getting this information? Thanks.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1483810 - 03/01/2019 09:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1244
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Same place all long range forecasts come from , out of their ar$e. Pays not to ignore bom though, forecast chance of a shower this morning, I thought gee that’s a long shot, left work boots and campchair out on lawn overnight. And sure enough , 2mm in gauge and in work boots.

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#1483826 - 03/01/2019 11:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1349
Loc: Toowoomba
Long range forecasts come from various places. Of course from Bom and their excellent climatologists. Also from other sources like A climatologist based at the USQ(University Of southern QLD). Here is an article from a USQ Newsletter from last year.
"Professor Stone was recently elected President of the WMO’s Commission for Agricultural Meteorology and is the first Australian to be selected for this role.

The four-year position will see Professor Stone lead the Commission, which will prioritise the need for better services for farmers and agribusiness (ranging from localised weather forecasts to seasonal climate outlooks) and better weather and climate risk management.

“There is a greater need than ever for the knowledge and expertise of agrometeorologists to assist farmers and the wider agricultural community and for more research and technology development in agrometeorology,” Professor Stone said.

“Now more than ever, we need to better prepare farmers for extremes of climate but also enable them to become more resilient.”

The Commission’s key areas of focus for 2018 to 2022 will include drought research and management, issues related to global food security, weather and climate services for agriculture and risk management associated with extreme weather and climate patterns.

Professor Stone currently leads USQ’s Fundamental Climate Science Research program and is Director of the University’s Centre for Applied Climate Sciences.

He is recognised as a global leader in climate science research and is also an expert team leader within the UN Commission for Climatology."

I read an interview with him in a northern QLD regional paper before it went behind a paywall. His forecast was rather grim for rain prospects. Anyway, everybody can make up their own minds about seasonal forecasts.
Cheers



Edited by NotsohopefulPete (03/01/2019 11:48)

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#1483836 - 03/01/2019 13:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Nic_Bri Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/08/2016
Posts: 38
Loc: Mt Gravatt East
I heard a rumble of thunder when leaving Mount Gravatt earlier. I am now at the RBH at Herston and stuck in my car due to a heavy shower...good problem to have though smile

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#1483843 - 03/01/2019 13:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: tsunami]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 549
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Ohh lovely rain
4mm in last hour
What a pleasant suprise
BOM have up chances of rain
well that explains the 0.7mm I saw in the gauge this morning. I was wondering when that fell, thought I hadn't reset the gauge maybe...lol.

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#1483871 - 03/01/2019 16:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5055
Loc: Wynnum
3.8mm at Wynnum North since 0900.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan11.4(160),Feb47.0(146),Mar285.6(130),Apr96.8(95),YTD440.8(531),

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#1483896 - 03/01/2019 17:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7823
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
We could well break the ridge record at this rate.

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#1483929 - 03/01/2019 20:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
Some lovely overcast and drizzly weather this morning at the Tweed.Could of had a couple of mm. So happy that rain could water my seedlings as you can smell the chlorine in the water.
Are the dams / water storage low/
--
I have been disappointed with ACCESS precipitation forecast in both position and intensity at times. It handles the bigger more obvious scenarios like troughing but has difficulty with weaker scenarios.
I noticed l was using the tab .. 7 day at 6hr intervals.
I have now selected 3 day at 3 hr intervals. I notice the precipitation map shows different results and in fact was more accurate today than the 7 day option.
I suppose the 3 day tab is a higher resolution?
Anyway .. I will try this 3 day option for awhile and see how she fairs.
and you need to zoom in to the state.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1483930 - 03/01/2019 20:56 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5992
Yeah, first 3 days are the higher resolution ACCESS-R model and the remainder is the lower resolution ACCESS-G.

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#1483931 - 03/01/2019 21:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
weatherhobbiest Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/12/2018
Posts: 47
3 mm of
rain here at Sunnybank Hills today. Our first rainfall of the month and year.


Edited by weatherhobbiest (03/01/2019 21:10)

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#1483944 - 04/01/2019 01:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: weatherhobbiest]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2539
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Very intense rain in this onshore cell and some good lightning and thunder. Anyone else getting this?

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#1483945 - 04/01/2019 01:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2539
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Still going strong! Very powerful slow-moving storm here.

Stretton and Calamvale got 47 and 46 mm from this. I think there will be heavier falls recorded in Corinda, Pullenvale and Jindalee when the gauges update.

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#1483948 - 04/01/2019 06:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
whethertraveller Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2011
Posts: 120
Loc: Northern Gold Coast
I was surprised when I checked my rain gauge this morning I vaguely remember it teeming in the early hours of this morning 41mm all up from yesterday and early this morning. North east of Beenleigh No official BOM rain gauges near me. Logan Central would be the closest but readings there are always different to the rainfall here Pleased to hear others south of Brisbane received good falls also.

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#1483949 - 04/01/2019 07:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 549
Loc: Salisbury
Very surprised to find we had 10.3mm fall here overnight as I didn't hear a thing (actually looked at the raingauge several times through half asleep eyes I was that surprised...lol), nice to read of some of those higher 40 - 50mm amounts falling elsewhere nearby.

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#1483953 - 04/01/2019 08:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3847
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Not a drop out here. Looks grim for any drops for the near future.

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#1483956 - 04/01/2019 08:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 374
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Official gauge here has 34 mm, nice unexpected drop. Started around 10.30 and went to sleep listening to it, noice.
DD
_________________________
Just here for the weather

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#1483957 - 04/01/2019 08:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 374
Loc: Tallai, QLD
And on another note, kids got me a weather station for xmas, nothin super flash, its a Digitech. It was affordable for them, now to work it out and set it up. Woohoo
DD
_________________________
Just here for the weather

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