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#1490071 - 12/02/2019 15:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
shanebat Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/10/2012
Posts: 8
Loc: Tamborine Village, QLD
I think I will also use the ignore function. I was of the opinion we had all moved on from this weather event in terms of arguing about how truly exceptional it has indeed been, with an estimated 500,000 head of cattle lost I think the facts speak for themselves!

Other than that quick post, I am staying out of it. What I am not staying out of is wishing this storm season would stop sucking so badly.


Edited by shanebat (12/02/2019 15:49)

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#1490090 - 12/02/2019 17:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090



Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Nothing ignorant, or trolling to point out that the flood event, while exceptional in some locations, particularly Townsville, was not exceptional on a large scale, and did not reflect a particularly strong monsoon. Rainfall for January for North Australia was driest in 25 years. February doesn't look a whole lot better.

As for agendas, I forecast an above average monsoon due to modoki influence, so if I had an agenda it would be to talk up the amount of rain from this event, not talk it down.


All the rain from the recent big monsoonal burst didn't occur until very late January and was split between late Jan/early Feb so using calendar months to analyse the significance of a single event that overlaps two months isn't going to be truly representative of the intensity and areal extent of the event itself, especially if the areas concerned shifted a bit during the event, or if rainfall before or after it was low. You have to compare apples with apples i.e. compare the event's rainfall with what's typical for that same time period.

It wasn't just "some" locations either - if you looked at the maps for daily rainfall percentiles and average recurrence intervals posted around a week ago, you'll see the areal extent of the 99th percentile or greater rainfall day after day which included a large chunk of NW QLD and the northern interior.
For example, the Flinders River is a big river which runs through NW QLD and its catchment area lies outside the Townsville region... yet, it's been experiencing its most significant flood in at least half a century to the point that record floodwaters have also been breaking out into surrounding catchments.
As is often the case, the bigger population centres such as Townsville usually tend to get the most media attention because of the impacts and also partly due to the heavier concentration of social media footage from there while more sparsely populated areas get less, even when there is a significant event there as well.

Also, there's more to the strength of a monsoon than just how much rain it drops although naturally a strong monsoon will typically cause heavy rain - the crux of a monsoon is a seasonal reversal in winds. In the case of the most recent monsoonal event (and I'm referring to it as an event in this example to differentiate it from the rest of the season before and after it), the monsoonal west to northwesterlies feeding into the northern side of the monsoon trough and low were strong (bordering on gales at times) which is classic of a very vigorous monsoonal event and hence the repeated severe weather warnings for abnormally high tides along the windward facing coastline of the Gulf - wind anomalies from the 26th Jan to 9th Feb above. It's something that's often forgotten about in all the talk about the rain. While the low was the main talking point of the event, it wasn't the only aspect of it.
Another thing that's easily overlooked is the fact that rainfall anomalies associated with strong monsoonal events aren't just restricted to land where people live. Satellite precipitation monitoring indicates greater than normal rainfall overall over waters surrounding far northern Australia over the last 30 days, a proportion of which was likely to have been from the recent burst.

I think the sticking point all along has been what criteria you use to judge whether a monsoon is strong or not, and whether you're referring to the monsoon as in the context of the most recent event itself. If it's the latter, then it was remarkable not just in terms of Townsville rain but also other large parts of QLD's northwest and northern interior as well as for the strength of the monsoonal flow to its north.

On a more relevant note to this thread, I think this serves as another good reminder that while monsoon lows and trough sometimes do make it down here, a large proportion of the time they don't, even when they're strong.

Re the Coral Sea system that the deterministic version of EC's trying to bring in towards the end of its forecast period - currently 10% of its ensemble's members are producing any decent wind and rain from it for Brisbane while 90% aren't.

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#1490099 - 12/02/2019 18:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Ken - certainly was an exceptional monsoon event.

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#1490120 - 12/02/2019 20:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Petros]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
If Townsville had been the only area affected than one could argue that the event was only exceptional in that it stalled allowing one locality to get a huge dump of rain. But as has become clear vast areas of north-west Queensland received significant rain and wind. This didn't become apparent in the media until toward the very end of the event. The monsoon event was exceptional because it stalled, focused huge falls on a small area, but still also delivered significant falls to a wider region as well. As Ken mentioned there were other impacts too that suggest a powerful monsoonal event.

I think it would be incredible if that same monsoon low came back onto SEQ as a TC or ex-TC. That would instantly make up for this terrible season. EC still has it lurking off SEQ, GFS now has it striking SEQ as a smaller low flung onto the coast by the Fujiwara effect, GFS FV3 has a major cyclone impact on Rockhampton and Access-G has it rotting out near New Cal.


Edited by Nature's Fury (12/02/2019 20:23)

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#1490122 - 12/02/2019 20:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Re: Townsville. Not only was the prolonged stall exceptional, but also the conditions just before the peak on the Sunday 3 Feb around late morning to early afternoon.
In a separate post here: http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1489232/Atmospheric_Rivers#Post1489232
I posted a link to the precipitable water analysis product for 10am on the Sunday, that concentration of preciptitable water particularly off-shore and near coast on the Sunday was extraordinary IMO. God only knows what sort of rainfall totals may have landed on the ocean.


Edited by Flowin (12/02/2019 20:32)

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#1490141 - 12/02/2019 23:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Looks like a nice cool change comes through here after tomorrow with temps below 30 degrees for a few days. Nice breeze expected too. Lows will dip a bit below average also. Hope everyone enjoys the cool break!
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1490143 - 12/02/2019 23:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Not to mention the hundreds of thousands of cattle (some estimates now put it close to half a million) killed in the floods, many of which were in northwestern and northern interior of QLD such as near Cloncurry: https://www.facebook.com/jacqueline.curley.969/albums/2304320376259409/

Not something that happens routinely in these numbers even after taking into account any changes in their distribution and numbers over time and prior drought stress.

“ The chief executive officer of AgForce, the peak body for the Queensland cattle industry, Michael Guerin, said farmers could take decades to recover.
“There is no doubt that this is a disaster of unprecedented proportion,” Guerin said. “

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#1490145 - 12/02/2019 23:43 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
planet x Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/02/2015
Posts: 70
Loc: Brisbane
Soooo good to see you back Ken!!

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#1490157 - 13/02/2019 07:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Ken Kato]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Not to mention the hundreds of thousands of cattle (some estimates now put it close to half a million) killed in the floods, many of which were in northwestern and northern interior of QLD such as near Cloncurry: https://www.facebook.com/jacqueline.curley.969/albums/2304320376259409/

Not something that happens routinely in these numbers even after taking into account any changes in their distribution and numbers over time and prior drought stress.

“ The chief executive officer of AgForce, the peak body for the Queensland cattle industry, Michael Guerin, said farmers could take decades to recover.
“There is no doubt that this is a disaster of unprecedented proportion,” Guerin said. “


Some will never come back from it, it’s crippled the northern cattle industry, the ppl are tough up there but there’s only so much human nature can tolerate
_________________________
I hate winter

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#1490159 - 13/02/2019 07:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
wilyms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 191
Loc: Roma, Qld
Ken has already posted something similar but here’s another view of the North West Qld flood extent. This one has scale bar and the property boundaries shown. Mind blowing really.

https://www.cibolabs.com.au/blog/devastating-western-qld-floods

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#1490162 - 13/02/2019 08:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
I am waiting for someone to rage against my harping on the drought that is slowly but surely chocking northern NSW and Southern QLD. Apart from the fortunate SE QLD coast probably record rain deficiencies are developing for the last 4 months even right to the coast now in NE NSW. It seems to have been forgotten at the moment, but it will become stark reality when this month ends. Of course, I am hoping some big rain event happens soon. If not, someone may think, "that whinging jerk NSPete was right. But I hope I am totally wrong.
Cheers everyone.


Edited by NotsohopefulPete (13/02/2019 08:01)

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#1490171 - 13/02/2019 08:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato


All the rain from the recent big monsoonal burst didn't occur until very late January and was split between late Jan/early Feb so using calendar months to analyse the significance of a single event that overlaps two months isn't going to be truly representative of the intensity and areal extent of the event itself, especially if the areas concerned shifted a bit during the event, or if rainfall before or after it was low. You have to compare apples with apples i.e. compare the event's rainfall with what's typical for that same time period.


Well it would be nice to have a better time period to show maps for, but I don't so the monthly will have to do. I think it still gives a pretty good indication of where the very heavy falls were.

Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

It wasn't just "some" locations either - if you looked at the maps for daily rainfall percentiles and average recurrence intervals posted around a week ago, you'll see the areal extent of the 99th percentile or greater rainfall day after day which included a large chunk of NW QLD and the northern interior.


No idea where this map is and couldn't find it.


Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Also, there's more to the strength of a monsoon than just how much rain it drops although naturally a strong monsoon will typically cause heavy rain - the crux of a monsoon is a seasonal reversal in winds. In the case of the most recent monsoonal event (and I'm referring to it as an event in this example to differentiate it from the rest of the season before and after it), the monsoonal west to northwesterlies feeding into the northern side of the monsoon trough and low were strong (bordering on gales at times) which is classic of a very vigorous monsoonal event and hence the repeated severe weather warnings for abnormally high tides along the windward facing coastline of the Gulf - wind anomalies from the 26th Jan to 9th Feb above. It's something that's often forgotten about in all the talk about the rain. While the low was the main talking point of the event, it wasn't the only aspect of it.


So how do the winds stack up to other monsoon events. Many other monsoon events include cyclones and this one didn't, so I'd be pretty sure the peak wind speed at a location in this event was low to average. Of course the average over a wide area would be more relevant. My perception is that this was probably stronger than the average burst, but not truly exceptional. In particular the area and intensity of strong wind seems to have grown significantly as the monsoon burst has moved on into the western Pacific. I don't remember there being any area of red on the map while the monsoon was north of Australia? Does anyone happen to have an equivalent map lieing around in case my memory is faulty?



Also look at the precipitable water as posted by flowin. See how there is more precipitable water well out in the Pacific near the dateline than over NE Australia. This reflects a modoki/el nino like state with more water out near the dateline, in contrast to true neutral/La Nina which would have more water over Australia, and trades pushing all that Pacific moisture towards the continent. I just can't see how the monsoon on a large scale can be exceptional when such a large proportion of the available energy is diverted well out in the Pacific.


Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

I think the sticking point all along has been what criteria you use to judge whether a monsoon is strong or not, and whether you're referring to the monsoon as in the context of the most recent event itself.


I am thinking of the monsoon in terms of general amount of uplift, convergence and moisture over North Australia. This relates to ENSO and MJO status and other climate drivers, and large amounts of such activity over Northern Australia are more likely to generate flow on effects to the southern parts through Rosby waves (not sure how it works, but thats what the research claims), being a key aspect of how ENSO/IOD status impact southern Australia rainfall.

A final method of measuring the monsoon is through the strength of the MJO. Not ideal, but at least it is relatively objective. This suggests a solid monsoon event, but far from exceptional.


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#1490174 - 13/02/2019 09:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Mike, please drop it, or go to the climate thread. I do like most of your posts but like many, I have seen enough about this topic. Also, you have distracted from my brilliant post.
Cheers.

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#1490175 - 13/02/2019 09:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1673
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Does it really matter if one calls it exceptional or not exceptional? It provided above average rain for a lot of areas and lots or records were broken. Let the people in the middle of north western Queensland tell you what they think about this latest monsoon. I can guarantee they won’t consider it a normal run of the mill monsoon, that’s for sure.
_________________________
S.Kunze

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#1490176 - 13/02/2019 09:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Geez, Mike you need to let it go. Strength of MJO as a method of measuring Monsoon really?.
Anyway the percentile maps you can't find are here:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/ex...3&colour=colour
There were many consecutive days of large areas of rain above 97th percentile and significant areas above 99th percentile.

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#1490177 - 13/02/2019 09:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Also, you have distracted from my brilliant post.
Cheers.

Yes your post was good and very pertinent topic for our region right now and into the immediate future.

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#1490180 - 13/02/2019 09:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Thanks, flowin. I put that in because I have seen It happen(though rare) to others.

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#1490184 - 13/02/2019 09:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Stephen]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Stephen
Does it really matter if one calls it exceptional or not exceptional? It provided above average rain for a lot of areas and lots or records were broken. Let the people in the middle of north western Queensland tell you what they think about this latest monsoon. I can guarantee they won’t consider it a normal run of the mill monsoon, that’s for sure.


I'm sure it doesn't matter to a lot of people.

I don't think that stop those who think it is interesting from discussing it, as long as the discussions are polite and fact based.

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#1490186 - 13/02/2019 09:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2705
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
I am waiting for someone to rage against my harping on the drought that is slowly but surely chocking northern NSW and Southern QLD. Apart from the fortunate SE QLD coast probably record rain deficiencies are developing for the last 4 months even right to the coast now in NE NSW. It seems to have been forgotten at the moment, but it will become stark reality when this month ends. Of course, I am hoping some big rain event happens soon. If not, someone may think, "that whinging jerk NSPete was right. But I hope I am totally wrong.
Cheers everyone.


No Pete they may seem to be forgotten SEQ and Northern NSW due all the attention centered on what has happened up North but the SEQ is under a severe fire watch. You would have seen a big difference in just the 2 years or more that you have moved to Toowoomba. The dams up Toowoomba way must be getting low again. They really need to build another dam but I am not sure where they could. Toowoomba has gone from a country town to a city. It is a very big place now.

The warning states

Fire Weather Warning
for the Central Highlands and Coalfields, Maranoa and Warrego and Darling Downs and Granite Belt forecast districts
Issued at 4:58 am EST on Wednesday 13 February 2019.
Weather Situation
Hot and dry conditions combined with freshening west to southwesterly winds will lead to severe to locally extreme fire dangers across forested areas of the Maranoa, Darling Downs & Granite Belt, southeastern Central West and southwestern Central Highlands and Coalfields districts today.

For the rest of Wednesday 13 February:
Extreme Fire Danger is forecast for the following forecast district:
Darling Downs and Granite Belt

Severe Fire Danger is forecast for the following forecast districts:
Central Highlands and Coalfields and Maranoa and Warrego

The Rural Fire Service Queensland advises you to:
Action your Bushfire Survival Plan now.
Monitor the fire and weather situation through your local radio station, www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au and www.bom.gov.au.
Call 000 (Triple Zero) in an emergency.
For information on preparing for bushfires go to www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au.

No further warnings will be issued for this event, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings issued if necessary.
Warnings Information
About fire weather warnings.

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#1490187 - 13/02/2019 09:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
LDRcycles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 108
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
I am waiting for someone to rage against my harping on the drought that is slowly but surely chocking northern NSW and Southern QLD. Apart from the fortunate SE QLD coast probably record rain deficiencies are developing for the last 4 months even right to the coast now in NE NSW. It seems to have been forgotten at the moment, but it will become stark reality when this month ends. Of course, I am hoping some big rain event happens soon. If not, someone may think, "that whinging jerk NSPete was right. But I hope I am totally wrong.
Cheers everyone.


I'm right with you there, we've had 4 inches over the last week which is very welcome indeed, but there is not much moisture past the surface. I've got my fingers crossed that the end of this month/March will bring some more rain but I'm also prepared for another sub par start to a dry winter. The rain here has been getting increasingly unreliable and sporadic over the last few years.

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