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#1483249 - 30/12/2018 20:45 South Pacific Cyclone Season 2018/2019
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4207
Loc: El Arish
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 300838 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 170.3E
AT 300600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD03F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT
25 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF LLCC.
ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF
AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC 12.8S 173.0E MOV ESE AT 15 KT WITH 25
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC 14.6S 175.4E MOV ESE AT 14 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC 16.9S 177.9E MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 19.5S 179.3W MOV SE AT 16 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 300200 UTC.

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt
_________________________
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#1483924 - 03/01/2019 20:22 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
islanboi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/02/2010
Posts: 129
Loc: Suva, Fiji
Wow. It's been really quiet in here aye? I guess after the non event of last depression 2 days ago, some are still not convinced a cyclone is headed our way!

Welcome Mona!

2 current scenarios, 1 through vanua levu n onwards(favored by Fiji Met) while the 2nd scenario has it going through the 2nd main island as well... Viti Levu.

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#1483936 - 03/01/2019 21:36 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: islanboi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6012
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: islanboi
Wow. It's been really quiet in here aye? I guess after the non event of last depression 2 days ago, some are still not convinced a cyclone is headed our way!

Welcome Mona!

2 current scenarios, 1 through vanua levu n onwards(favored by Fiji Met) while the 2nd scenario has it going through the 2nd main island as well... Viti Levu.


Iím currently in Suva, Fiji (having arrived here from Melbourne via Sydney last Monday night with my wife) for a couple of weeks and this is already turning into my first-ever PROPER experience with a tropical cyclone! And by that, I mean not the remnants of a cyclone thatís made landfall.

Been humid and overcast here all day long. Had a few light showers around midday, but the first proper heavy rainbands associated with the impending cyclone arrived in the Capital after 3pm local time. At times the rain was quite persistent and heavy! And the winds have been gradually increasing, becoming quite gusty at times. Very fast-moving clouds speeding westwards.

The rain has stopped for now but itís still windy, and more rain spreading south on radar as the cyclone approaches from the north.

Current predictions by Fiji Met have Mona making landfall as a Category 2 system near Labasa on Vanua Levu on Saturday night. Iím watching this storm very, very closely...


Edited by aussiestormfreak (03/01/2019 21:43)

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#1484039 - 04/01/2019 17:29 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4207
Loc: El Arish
STORM WARNING 030 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 040117 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7
SOUTH 177.3 EAST AT 040000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 14.7S 177.3E at 040000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
55 KNOTS BY 041200 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.0S 177.2E AT 041200 UTC
AND NEAR 15.6S 177.7E AT 050000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ


THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 028.

_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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