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#1483574 - 01/01/2019 15:31 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: scott12]
Pacman Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 14/11/2001
Posts: 5292
Loc: Cairns - Upper Bentley Park
Originally Posted By: scott12
Originally Posted By: Pacman
Cooktown 300mm and Cairns 80mm forecast rainfall have all been quashed which was feared would happen as this setup has shown before with any GOC cyclones feeder bands being blocked when another low pressure system forms close by in the coral sea.

With this setup we need TC Penny back in the Coral sea to witness anything noteworthy or to drag the monsoon down over us.



You haven't had enough rain for the moment Pacman...?....I'm certainly not fearing a week or 2 of dryish weather...


Haha yeah what can i say.... not that i don't mind the break from the rain, however I do love the opportunity for a good rain lashing or cyclonic event while the season is on as we know it won't last forever wink

Lets hope the remaining months of the wet season are as generous to what's been had thus far.... Bring on a very wet 2019.

Happy New Year all.

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#1483591 - 01/01/2019 17:49 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
Birdie Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/10/2018
Posts: 26
Loc: Newell Beach
Im with you Pacman, I want more! I'm getting bored of all these severe weather warnings that come to a weezy puff of wind and some heavy showers.

Happy New Year everyone smile

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#1483607 - 01/01/2019 19:16 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 2118
Loc: Smithfield, Cairns
Agreed. MORE MORE MORE. This is the wet season and I wait all year for it!! No such thing as too much - we are built for this.

And agree to all the SWW... people become complacent...
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#1483614 - 01/01/2019 20:22 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
dormant Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 690
Loc: near ferry, FNQ
I presume everyone wanting more and dramatic weather don't intend evacuating when a cyclone threatens. After all, houses these days are built for the severest conditions, right? Right...

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#1483623 - 01/01/2019 21:31 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1532
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
I turned the SWW notifications off a day or so ago.

Just too many meaningless SMS's & emails. Logged in and un-ticked 4 boxes and save changes. That's it.
And it's not about becoming complacent. These warnings were maybe a 5% chance of coming off.
I couldn't see any way to only receive the red & black, (2nd top & top) priority ones only.

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#1483626 - 01/01/2019 22:00 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: hickory]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4184
Loc: El Arish
It is when complacency sets in...I saw this a few weeks back.



As for weather, last year was a year of records.
Highest March rainfall (2064mm)
Highest Dec rainfall (1013)
Lowest rainfall of 0mm for Aug.
Longest dry spell since we have been here (12 years)
First time over 40,41,42deg.
longest stretch of consecutive days over 35 deg.

I am sure there is a few more, but can't think of them right now.

2018 was my 3rd wettest and the first time i have cracked the 5mtr mark since 2011 and only the second time nudging over 4mtrs since 2011.

2018 was a strange year for weather,Even some of the citrus did not know what is going on, i have one plant that has flowered on 5 separate occasions last year and is in full bloom again.
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#1483627 - 01/01/2019 22:10 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: dormant]
Birdie Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/10/2018
Posts: 26
Loc: Newell Beach
Originally Posted By: dormant
I presume everyone wanting more and dramatic weather don't intend evacuating when a cyclone threatens. After all, houses these days are built for the severest conditions, right? Right...



We would have no where to go, my mum's house is more unsafe than ours (she's the only close person I have here) and there's no way I'm leaving my pets behind and going to the shelter. Take our chances here.

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#1483631 - 01/01/2019 22:54 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: Birdie]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1149
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: Birdie
Originally Posted By: dormant
I presume everyone wanting more and dramatic weather don't intend evacuating when a cyclone threatens. After all, houses these days are built for the severest conditions, right? Right...



We would have no where to go, my mum's house is more unsafe than ours (she's the only close person I have here) and there's no way I'm leaving my pets behind and going to the shelter. Take our chances here.


If you are anywhere near the beachfront it would be wise to check out where your nearest Cyclone shelter is birdie....during cyclone Yasi all the beachside areas were wisely evacuated ..all the homes near the beach at Hull heads and Tully heads had the ocean surge through them and furniture,household goods and house components were strewn up to several hundred metres inland..

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#1483639 - 02/01/2019 01:19 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: scott12]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1532
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
Originally Posted By: scott12
....during cyclone Yasi all the beachside areas were wisely evacuated ..all the homes near the beach at Hull heads and Tully heads had the ocean surge through them and furniture,household goods and house components were strewn up to several hundred metres inland..

That evacuation from Holloways cost me $80 for a motel room way up the hill at Stratford.
A huge big room with rake ceilings. All was good 'til midnight when the power went off. Candles and more wine, but no aircon or fans. smirk

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#1483643 - 02/01/2019 06:54 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
darknstormy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 26/12/2018
Posts: 1
Why is it that they say yo go to the smallest room in the house as that is the safest, then if you get told to go to a shelter you are in a big stadium with louvre windows??
We are at the beaches in a yellow zone but weren't evacuated for Yasi. I felt safer at home with our dog anyway, we would never leave her.

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#1483648 - 02/01/2019 08:24 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1962
Loc: Mareeba
Doubtful but wonder if that area of convergence will make it this far south. It has been moving steadily south overnight. Looks good on the 512km Cairns radar for 12 hours on the faster settings
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#1483654 - 02/01/2019 09:12 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: darknstormy]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5156
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: darknstormy
Why is it that they say yo go to the smallest room in the house as that is the safest, then if you get told to go to a shelter you are in a big stadium with louvre windows??
We are at the beaches in a yellow zone but weren't evacuated for Yasi. I felt safer at home with our dog anyway, we would never leave her.


Yasi went south of cairns so there was no chance of storm surge and it was so far south in the end that cairns got nothing anyway. As for sheltering. The smallest room in the house will be the strongest therefore less likely to collapse. Evacuation centres are built to stronger standards even though they are big.

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#1483656 - 02/01/2019 09:25 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: Simmo FNQ]
Pacman Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 14/11/2001
Posts: 5292
Loc: Cairns - Upper Bentley Park
Originally Posted By: Simmo FNQ
Doubtful but wonder if that area of convergence will make it this far south. It has been moving steadily south overnight. Looks good on the 512km Cairns radar for 12 hours on the faster settings


Have been watching this also Simmo, seems the smaller low that was near Bougainville reef sabotaging our rainfall has now moved East and appearing over Willis Island on radar. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR412.loop.shtml#skip

Also of interest is this little number making an appearance in the northern hemisphere moving into the Gulf of Thailand and may cross into the Indian Ocean; not sure if this has been seen before?? http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp3618.gif

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#1483670 - 02/01/2019 11:26 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: dormant]
FNQ Bunyip Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2004
Posts: 1477
Loc: North bank river Daintree
Originally Posted By: dormant
I presume everyone wanting more and dramatic weather don't intend evacuating when a cyclone threatens. After all, houses these days are built for the severest conditions, right? Right...



Nothing new about my old shed.
As the others have said , it's the wet season , bring it on.
Up to Cat 3 nothing much to worry about , 4 & 5 bring more danger and require a bit more in the preparation , but won't be going anywhere.

If I was beach front or even a few streets back totally different situation and I'd have plans for any event.
We live in the tropics , Tropical cyclones are apart of life here as is huge rain events and good blows, it's all part of the mix that makes this area such a great place to live.

I love watching how these systems have behaved this year , the chriss crossing of the peninsular as other levels influence their travel has been very interesting.

Only 9mm here this morning


Cheers
_________________________
2015 4060mm
2016 3112mm
2017 3892mm
2018 Rainfall


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#1483674 - 02/01/2019 12:45 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 2118
Loc: Smithfield, Cairns
Wow, she is moving at the rate of knots... what do we think about the recurve back to the coast? She's going so quick...


Edited by drivenunder (02/01/2019 12:45)
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Bring on the rain!!!

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#1483676 - 02/01/2019 13:23 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13241
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
She'll recurve, it's just a matter of when and where. Latest GFS has her crossing at Cape Flattery.
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#1483682 - 02/01/2019 14:04 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2449
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Zero forecast of rain, in my mind I think that's going to change suddenly at some point, rain on radar is slowly south moving at this stage.
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#1483695 - 02/01/2019 14:56 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
slipperyfish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 1430
Loc: South Mission Beach QLD
GFS has been up and down the coast like a Jetstar flight for the last 24hrs. EC has been a little more stable but has also moved further north with each run.

The key will be how far out into the Coral See she moves and whether or not it is a continuous large recurve or a small stall and about face. This will determine region for landfall. The bigger the recurve, the further south the landfall.

Who really knows! If Owen taught us anything it is that we are merely guessing in the end. Playing with probabilities. I am cyclone ready, just a few pot plants to move.

Again a lovely day, not too hot and a gentle breeze.

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#1483762 - 02/01/2019 19:54 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
drivenunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2010
Posts: 2118
Loc: Smithfield, Cairns
Its pretty unusual for cyclones to travel poleward right? So can we assume that that counts out the far north if and when a recurve occurs? Surely it will continue in a south direction (even if it was WSW?)
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Bring on the rain!!!

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#1483771 - 02/01/2019 20:31 Re: Far North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell Northwards - January 2019 [Re: drivenunder]
Weary Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2014
Posts: 1098
Loc: Edge Hill, Cairns
Originally Posted By: drivenunder
Its pretty unusual for cyclones to travel poleward right? So can we assume that that counts out the far north if and when a recurve occurs? Surely it will continue in a south direction (even if it was WSW?)

Thatís the thing, they usually donít go poleward BUT sometimes they do....
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