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#1488368 - 01/02/2019 12:26 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18892
Loc: The Beach.
Apparently they are evacuating 90 homes so they can release water from Ross Dam. Breaking story on ABC news
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1488372 - 01/02/2019 12:52 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
bartholomu Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2011
Posts: 90
QLD dam management had a review after the 2011 Brisbane floods, a commission investigated the releases from Wivenhoe, Somerset and north pine dams, it revealed and resolved that in a repeat rain and future forecast event equal to the 2011 flood event that a release should occur when forecasts of that magnitude repeat, a release to lower dam levels to 75% are required, so I do not know what is going on with Ross dam with 170% full and forecasts of nearly 1000mm in the next 5 or so days. That seems comparable in nature thus implementing an override of the automated management plan and act in due haste. I only say this so it is on the record that some of public is watching this dam management as events unfold in real time. Not to cause panic, hindsight is too late in regards to a lack of interventions to act prior to a undesirable outcomes in dam storage release management.

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#1488374 - 01/02/2019 12:56 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Oriolus Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 25/12/2010
Posts: 39
Loc: Mundingburra
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Apparently they are evacuating 90 homes so they can release water from Ross Dam. Breaking story on ABC news
Article here:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-01/t...issing/10768656

Sounds like its some(but not all?) of the black zone, as detailed on page 95 of the EAP, is being evacuated. Article says they're going to open the gates more than scheduled.

http://data.dnrm.qld.gov.au/eap/ross-river-eap.pdf

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#1488376 - 01/02/2019 13:06 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: bartholomu]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 722
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: bartholomu
QLD dam management had a review after the 2011 Brisbane floods, a commission investigated the releases from Wivenhoe, Somerset and north pine dams, it revealed and resolved that in a repeat rain and future forecast event equal to the 2011 flood event that a release should occur when forecasts of that magnitude repeat, a release to lower dam levels to 75% are required, ...


Bartholomu, that is not a proper reading of the Commission of Inquiry recommendations. The recommendation was if there is a similar seasonal outlook to the 2010-11 season, then consideration should be given to lowering the dam to 75% at the start of the season. That is very different to a short term forecast. Releasing water just before the flood is potentially quite dangerous as I mentioned in an earlier post because the releases could combine with downstream flows and make flooding worse.
Releasing water at the start of the season is safer, but a very difficult judgement to make. Who would have thought the seasonal outlook in say December 2018 would have foreseen what your region is going through now.
Worth watching this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_4acsP7dGo

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#1488381 - 01/02/2019 13:18 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
bartholomu Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2011
Posts: 90
Dam failure is a far worse scenario than any controlled release ie evacuations can be carried out prior to release, I just read the report an hour ago, No one wants any persons to be harmed by floods, The difficult part is saving the integrity of the entire dam, a failure would cost many lives as a tsunami of storage water escapes in a uncontrolled fashion. You will find short term forecasting is to be considered with dam management in record flood type events.

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#1488382 - 01/02/2019 13:21 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
bartholomu Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2011
Posts: 90
Thank god they are releasing, 175% with the future forecasts, the right but very hard choice has been made. My empathy and sorrow for those who will be effected by this water storage release.

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#1488383 - 01/02/2019 13:25 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1217
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
Media: Transmitters serving the Ross, Bohle and Black Rivers are REQUESTED TO USE THE STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL BEFORE BROADCASTING THIS MESSAGE.

TOP PRIORITY: The Bureau and Emergency Services would appreciate this message being broadcast regularly.
Major Flood Warning for the Ross and Bohle Rivers and Flood Warning for the Black River and Bluewater Creek
Issued at 12:15 pm EST on Friday 1 February 2019

Flood Warning Number: 17

Property flooding is expected in the Ross River early Friday afternoon. Major flood levels are possible in the Ross River at Aplin Weir over the weekend with forecast heavy rainfall.

Important information from Townsville City Council:

It is really important that residents listen to emergency services or Council employees during this flood event.

The increase in flow from Ross River Dam may result in flooding of properties and the public are advised to move personal items to a higher level.

Authorities will further open the Ross River Dam spillway gates to try and prevent more significant flooding for downstream suburbs if this major rain event continues.

The spillway gates will be opened to a higher level, allowing more water to flow out now in order to reduce the potential for significant downstream flooding given the forecast for heavy rain to continue for the next few days.

Ross River:
Ross River Dam continues to spill. River levels at Black Weir are rising and currently below the minor flood level.

The Ross River at Aplin Weir is currently at 1.91 metres and rising. The river level at Aplin Weir is currently above the record flood level, exceeding the previous record of 1.77 metres from 1998. The Ross River at Aplin Weir will exceed 2.00 metres early Friday afternoon and may reach the major flood level (2.90 m) during the weekend.

Bohle River:
Major flooding is being recorded along the Bohle River during Friday afternoon.

No observations are currently available for the Bohle River at Mt Bohle, but moderate flood levels and renewed rises are expected to be occurring. The river level at Mt Bohle may exceed the major level (7.0 m) during Friday afternoon.

Black River and Bluewater Creek:
Stream levels along the Black River and Bluewater Creek are continuing to fall and are currently below the minor flood level.


Edited by ol mate (01/02/2019 13:26)
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1488384 - 01/02/2019 13:25 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
exodus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/12/2007
Posts: 629
Loc: Mount Louisa, Townsville
Date:
01/02/2019 11:00:00
Percent Full:
178%
Volume:
414431 ML

3% in last hour recorded.

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#1488388 - 01/02/2019 14:04 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: bartholomu]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 722
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: bartholomu
Risk must be alleviated to ensure the 43m level is not reached, as dam failure in the Emergency Plan states 43m level is the level where dam failure is likely to occur.


The above post from a few pages back in this thread needs a correction so as to avoid this unnecessary fixation on dam failure.
The Emergency Plan DOES NOT SAY 43m level is where dam failure is likely to occur.
The only relevance of the 43m level is that is the level that the operating rules would have gates fully open.
The top of the dam embankments (crest level) is 47.5m level.
And if there is any chance of dam failure the authorities will advise. Best not to speculate on this subject anymore.

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#1488390 - 01/02/2019 14:15 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
bundybear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2307
Loc: Between Bundy and Gladstone
Hope everyone up there stays safe. I hope everyone had their grab and go bags ready with important documents and family treasures.

Just a heads up. Now that the Premier has declared a state of emergency you have no rights.

Hopefully your homes will not be broken into by police with no warrants as happened in the Deepwater fires. (after they had escorted home owners off the property). Not hearsay. I know of 2 people who had surveillance cameras that caught them. Many residents here believe they were refused entry to their properties long enough for the police to be able to finish their search of the entire area.

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#1488396 - 01/02/2019 15:07 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1217
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
When the Ross rises to levels like we are seeing / going to see, does it overflow into Ross Creek at all?
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1488397 - 01/02/2019 15:09 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
exodus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/12/2007
Posts: 629
Loc: Mount Louisa, Townsville
Sitting out front of Ross creek now, itís actually very low, surprised they havenít been letting as much water out of the lakes as they can.

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#1488419 - 01/02/2019 16:50 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18892
Loc: The Beach.
Looks like Townsville is going to get a repeat tonight with that lot coming off the coast at Cairns at the moment.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1488433 - 01/02/2019 17:43 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: ColdFront]
Pacman Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 14/11/2001
Posts: 5330
Loc: Cairns - Upper Bentley Park
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Looks like Townsville is going to get a repeat tonight with that lot coming off the coast at Cairns at the moment.


Spot on CF, just love watching them build as they head south down the coast. you must miss it up this time of year?

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#1488434 - 01/02/2019 17:51 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
bartholomu Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2011
Posts: 90
You will note no other heights are mention after 43.60 meters on all Emergency action plans for the ross dam. No speculation here the risk from this level up is the high risk height, I have lived beside this dam for 30 years and have studied the entire EAP and other Qld dam operating procedures and policies, note the gate opening percentages are being not shared to the public, The volume is gaining beyond the outflow at this moment, a full opening is required with forecasts at present. as for fixation on dam failure, where are you located from this dam. you soon become fixated when you live right next to it and its at 180% plus volume with massive rain forecasts. Sorry I just can not ignore it.

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#1488437 - 01/02/2019 18:08 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: bartholomu]
Salty Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/12/2018
Posts: 37
Loc: Belgian Gardens
This might interest you.

http://www.northernwatermanagement.com.a...munity_2012.pdf

They should be, according to this, transitioning to fully open gates in about 10 minutes, ie middle gate fully open.


Edited by Salty (01/02/2019 18:14)
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Weather Sceptic

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#1488445 - 01/02/2019 18:42 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: bartholomu]
hickory Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/01/2006
Posts: 1575
Loc: Holloways Beach QLD
Originally Posted By: bartholomu
Thank god they are releasing, 175% with the future forecasts, the right but very hard choice has been made. My empathy and sorrow for those who will be effected by this water storage release.

What's with your paranoia ??

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#1488447 - 01/02/2019 18:43 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: hickory]
Salty Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/12/2018
Posts: 37
Loc: Belgian Gardens
Why attack him?
_________________________
Weather Sceptic

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#1488448 - 01/02/2019 18:51 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
bartholomu Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2011
Posts: 90
Thanks salty good read, flood levels that are present when discharge occurs is the elephant in the room along with tides. It is near impossible to get totally accurate effects with 100 year plus events. But a dam good estimate can be made pardon the pun. We need the rainfall to hold off for a good 24hrs at least to help reduce the future discharge rates required for the rest of the week if the forecast eventuates. Far better would be that friggin Townsville dome to do its stuff for a full week.

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#1488449 - 01/02/2019 19:09 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: bartholomu]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 500
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: bartholomu
Thanks salty good read, flood levels that are present when discharge occurs is the elephant in the room along with tides. It is near impossible to get totally accurate effects with 100 year plus events. But a dam good estimate can be made pardon the pun. We need the rainfall to hold off for a good 24hrs at least to help reduce the future discharge rates required for the rest of the week if the forecast eventuates. Far better would be that friggin Townsville dome to do its stuff for a full week.

I think the dome got washed away, might need to build a new one. Jokes aside between 90 and 100 homes downstream from the dam were evacuated today is a concern for some people in our community especially if we get more heavy rain in the area.

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