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#1483770 - 02/01/2019 20:30 Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc)
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
A new year. Let's see what it brings .
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#1483780 - 02/01/2019 21:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Warm neutral til May and then we see where things are at.

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#1483782 - 02/01/2019 22:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Kino
Warm neutral til May and then we see where things are at.


What he said.

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#1483784 - 02/01/2019 22:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Yep. Hopefully a wetter year but you'd be brave to back it.
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#1483820 - 03/01/2019 10:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
WWB anomaly is evident at the Kelvin wave generation zone atm, supported by a couple of tropical storm systems below the zone and the MJO now departing Aus region.

SST today, not much to report except my perceived coastal warming off NW WA.

US models hold the MJO at in the Pacific, European varieties favour a return to the Indian.

I think, in the short term (week or two), Aus will have a persistent heat low/easterly dip situation that will allow QLD moisture to advect into the country's south east.,

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#1483821 - 03/01/2019 10:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Generally it does look stormier for the next few weeks, but we shall see. If Penny can get her [censored] together and barrel sw like models thinks then we could see a very wet Jan.

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#1483825 - 03/01/2019 11:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
I don't see much change from the status quo in the next 10 days (for Sth East Qld region) unless EC's last run on Penny verifies. If it pushes back north like GFS and CMC have then it's back to more ridging and dry conditions.

Also ironically starting to see some hint of a more traditional ElNino surface pattern on NOAA's charts with the characteristic cooling across Torres Strait and the Coral Sea trying to emerge . A little late?
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#1483829 - 03/01/2019 11:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Penny's moisture supply onto the continent and resulting rainfall is probably going to be a lot less than it could be. I have provided the EC forecast for crossing, combined with some crayon drawings of the ideal moisture flows, as would occur more often in a La Nina set up.



Stronger trade winds along the equator in the east would be diverted as NEs and feed into the low on the southern flank. The monsoon westerlies would be bent around the north side of the low to join this stream.

However with much warmer water out in the central Pacific we see a significant low pressure system out past New Caledonia. This is totally blocking the NE flow, and diverting a substantial portion of the NW flow into a Westerly wind burst and away from TC Penny.

The eastern flow further south, supported by the Tasman Sea High is still quite healthy.

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#1483844 - 03/01/2019 14:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
As I suspected, SSTs have continued to soar through the high pressure blocking region, no different to last year. That's two years in a row despite the Pacific being cold last year and warm this year. Something much closer to home in play here?


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#1483850 - 03/01/2019 14:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Well they would given that high has been there for 4 months. Wish that warmer water was along the coast, itís damn frigid here - only 17c yest thanks to upwelling.

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#1483853 - 03/01/2019 15:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Penny's moisture supply onto the continent and resulting rainfall is probably going to be a lot less than it could be. I have provided the EC forecast for crossing, combined with some crayon drawings of the ideal moisture flows, as would occur more often in a La Nina set up.



Stronger trade winds along the equator in the east would be diverted as NEs and feed into the low on the southern flank. The monsoon westerlies would be bent around the north side of the low to join this stream.

However with much warmer water out in the central Pacific we see a significant low pressure system out past New Caledonia. This is totally blocking the NE flow, and diverting a substantial portion of the NW flow into a Westerly wind burst and away from TC Penny.

The eastern flow further south, supported by the Tasman Sea High is still quite healthy.


Looks fine....healthy NE indeed.


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#1483855 - 03/01/2019 15:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8802
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Totally blocking the NE flow? Don't think so, plenty of fuel should be dragged into that system despite the other low.

It may seem a bit cut off for now, but the supply will become healthier the longer Penny stays out there https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shwvgms.html

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#1483856 - 03/01/2019 15:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Yeah Iím not sure why anyone would use an 850hpa wind model chart to show moisture movement into a TC...when itís all surface based. 🙄🙄 TCís rely on surface moisture not mid level moisture.


Edited by Kino (03/01/2019 15:21)

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#1483857 - 03/01/2019 15:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8802
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Technically they do need moisture in all levels, otherwise if too much dry air enters at 850hp it can deprive the system. However, the moisture source from the NW (at that particular level) should be sufficient and act as a fuel source as it moves back toward the coast. To say there's a total block of the NE flow is a bit silly.

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#1483859 - 03/01/2019 15:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Despite the lack of equatorial easterlies wrapping into the system like you'd sometimes see during a La-Nina, the strength of the current monsoonal flow is more than enough to wrap around and fuel these lows. So, I think it looks fine tbh.

Originally Posted By: Kino
Yeah Iím not sure why anyone would use an 850hpa wind model chart to show moisture movement into a TC...when itís all surface based. 🙄🙄 TCís rely on surface moisture not mid level moisture.


Nah, it's not all surface. You sometimes see cyclones struggle with dry air intrusion when there's a significant upper level trough just downstream from the TC. Sometimes, dry air in the mid-levels gets brought up from the south behind these troughs which affects convection around the LLCC.

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#1483862 - 03/01/2019 15:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Well perhaps post an 850hpa moisture chart not a wind chart?

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#1483866 - 03/01/2019 15:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Totally blocks of the long distance NE flow, as marked by the heavy black line I added to the chart. This is the flow that transfers large amounts of moisture from the equatorial easterlies onto the Australian Continent when Walker circulation is active and local patterns are favourable.

Yes there is still a local NE flow, and yes there is plenty enough moisture for a cyclone and rain. But not nearly as much moisture as there could be if ENSO was more favourable. Rainfall totals near the center of the cyclone will be as high, but the rainfall totals will drop off a lot quicker as you move away from the cyclone, and as the cyclone moves inland than they would with a strong long range NE flow.

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#1483872 - 03/01/2019 16:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 739
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Mike you are definitely correct that the equatorial moisture is not as great as it would be with a La Nina or Neutral.
With Easterlies basically not existent at the edge of the nino 4 region. Although what your drawing misses is other monsoonal low drawing a meridonal wind flow which combines a high sitting south below it to drive long fetch easterlies from more central areas of the pacific. Hence providing adequate fuel which will see inland areas pick up decent rain.




Edited by ashestoashes (03/01/2019 16:33)

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#1483880 - 03/01/2019 17:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2601
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
/sigh. More huge pictures requiring sideways scrolling.

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#1483884 - 03/01/2019 17:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
No such problem for me with 125% zoom on a 22" monitor .
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