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#1489503 - 07/02/2019 17:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
MJO 6/7 is West Pacific and there is currently plenty of cloud in West Pacific.



Cloudiness and westerly anomalies in West Pacific continue to be at similar levels to the 06/07 weak el nino event, and more extensive than previous warm neutral events such as 14/15.

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#1489565 - 08/02/2019 09:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Ta Mike. I did think that phase 8 was at the E boundary of Nino.3 (have now marked the zones on my globe).

The present cloudiness at 6/7 has been persistent for many weeks there, despite the MJO location. Cloud there, imo, is typical of neutral enso.

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#1489696 - 09/02/2019 03:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
That WWB on CFS looks like a whopper if it comes to fruition.


Still on the cards, and it's huge! Puts the others from the last few months to shame:


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#1489697 - 09/02/2019 04:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
For comparison, 2016, 2017 & 2018:


..................................................

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#1489714 - 09/02/2019 08:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The far east side of Nino3.4 (130-120W) looks to be cooling on todays readings. The below SST profile has also cooled out that way over past week.

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#1489726 - 09/02/2019 10:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7770
Loc: Adelaide Hills
what are the perils we face???

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#1489727 - 09/02/2019 10:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7770
Loc: Adelaide Hills
post 1489503 -- the numbers end with 10! Make them end with 10, not one smile !!!!! it's not the MJO!


Edited by Sein (09/02/2019 10:51)

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#1489781 - 09/02/2019 16:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Whatís going on here?

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#1489783 - 09/02/2019 16:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Gfs extended has onshore surface winds but 700hpa will be SW.

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#1489797 - 09/02/2019 18:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
At Lake Mac?

Looking at latest GFS run this arvo, .....looks dry in the 8 day outlook for most in Aus. Perhaps opportunity will be mopped up by the large prognosed tropical storm in the Coral Sea (but far offshore) set to move slowly E?

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#1489814 - 09/02/2019 20:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Referring to SAM effects on east coast.

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#1489820 - 09/02/2019 21:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Umm yeah thatís why itís dry.


Edited by Funkyseefunkydo (09/02/2019 21:06)

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#1489826 - 09/02/2019 21:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 739
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
UH OH!
The SAM is literally dropping off a cliff, also worst possible time for it when we rely on the Monsoonal moisture dropping South with highs sitting south of the continent.

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#1489877 - 10/02/2019 14:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Forecast WWB according to GFS next week is pretty extreme. Wait and see if it happens, and if it does we should be well on the way to a strong el nino.

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#1489900 - 10/02/2019 18:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Forecast WWB according to GFS next week is pretty extreme. Wait and see if it happens, and if it does we should be well on the way to a strong el nino.


Got that "its about to swing one way, ....or another" feeling in my gut as well Mike.

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#1489918 - 10/02/2019 20:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Knife edge alright. If we were in June I'd be getting on a Nino, but we barely into February so I know better.
_________________________


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#1489940 - 11/02/2019 10:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This morning:

* Pacific trades are lacklustre (Westerly anomaly within the W side of Nino.4)
* MJO signal relatively strong at 6/7 - but no tropical cloud evident at that region
* SST profile continues to be holding same over past 7 days, except cooling a bit over E side of Nino.3 and Nino1.2 (dont expect that trend to continue with the trades as weak as they are, and are prognosed to continue to be)
* Below SST profile out E side of Nino.3 is "thin" - the surface water temp cools off rapidly at 25M below the surface (but as above - may not mean much with weaker than normal trades out that way)
* models see nothing in the outlook to trigger moist air inflow from the Indian over NW WA - nor do they allow for flow in from the Coral Sea, for the next week

Perfect conditions for that hated Quidge.

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#1490006 - 11/02/2019 23:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
So what is driving the short term climate response now?
ENSO appears atypical. Different labels put on ENSO scenarios, and status, but we're in the season where ENSO is commonly uncertain.
MJO a measure that is probably more a response indicator than driving indicator. IOD and SAM other indicators not alone but potentially also related in the bigger picture. Seems that a lot is still estimating or guess without much sound basis. So much we don't yet know.

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#1490064 - 12/02/2019 14:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Flowin]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Flowin
So what is driving the short term climate response now?.........


I'd call it climatic indecision.

With ENSO neutral, for the southern hemisphere (only), it seems that Huey is happy with the heat balance between the equator and the south pole (probably influenced by the massive tongue of warm water extending SE'ward all the way to 100W/30S in the southern Pacific).

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#1490082 - 12/02/2019 16:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
SAM going neg = strong westerly winds.

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