Page 44 of 53 < 1 2 ... 42 43 44 45 46 ... 52 53 >
Topic Options
#1500720 - 16/06/2019 18:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8056
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Mego - not plausible given the huge energy input to drive those changes.

Top
#1500721 - 16/06/2019 18:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
My guess is data error?

Top
#1500723 - 16/06/2019 18:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8056
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
MJO progs are interesting atm. Lots of variance for where it heads from "here near Aus" at present. ...Perhaps doesn't mean much for us in Aus at winter solstice?

Pacific trades regime looks locked in for a continuation of as is for the next week or so?

.....I'm still expecting cooling into Nino.3

Top
#1500759 - 17/06/2019 10:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2597
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
To my inexperienced eyes, this image looks to me like the subsurface warming from the last WWB has peaked. Of course though what happens under the water is totally irrelevant in the short term as all the action is on the surface.

The image will change so this image is only relevant to this time period when this post was made.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/tlon_heat.gif

I think we will need a continuation of WWB's to keep the subsurface warm.

Top
#1500781 - 17/06/2019 17:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 737
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: Petros
MJO progs are interesting atm. Lots of variance for where it heads from "here near Aus" at present. ...Perhaps doesn't mean much for us in Aus at winter solstice?
Pacific trades regime looks locked in for a continuation of as is for the next week or so?
.....I'm still expecting cooling into Nino.3

Looks like confusion over MJO as usually a move into Phase 5 causes rainfall over WA, although it wants a u-turn. Which conflicts with the forecast.


Top
#1500788 - 17/06/2019 18:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8056
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks AtoA (I think) .....means more early season frosts and continuation of drought for my stomping ground frown

I reckon the Indian Ocean needs an eye kept on it. BOM says continuation of +ve IOD/neutral. .....but looks at the temps near the Faulklands over recent days!


Edited by Petros (17/06/2019 18:59)

Top
#1500789 - 17/06/2019 18:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8056
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
oops


Edited by Petros (17/06/2019 18:59)

Top
#1500806 - 18/06/2019 00:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Cutofflow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2009
Posts: 106
Loc: North Central. VIC
Pretty solid +IOD feedback going now, highlighted in the chart below. DMI Index now bouncing off above +1c. Won't match the IOD event in '94 but could give '06 a shake.

Fortunately rainfall anomalies this year are a big contrast to those previous years mentioned. Frontal activity and moisture from the Pacific have saved us through inland Vic so far, so fingers crossed we can get through the winter growing season unscathed - I'm tipping a hard finish in spring through inland VIC, SA & NSW.


Top
#1500811 - 18/06/2019 08:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3816
Loc: Buderim
WWB during May in the Pacific occurred at the same time as enhanced easterlies in east Indian Ocean, which pushed IOD from -0.16 in first week of May to +0.77 in the last week.

Enhanced convection driven by warm water over the Pacific pulls convection away from Australia and East Indian, resulting in westerlies in West Pacific, and easterlies in the east Indian.



For the first part of June trade winds have surged in West Pacific. Easterly anomalies in east Indian have weakened, but still occur as the IOD event hovers near self-sustainability - IOD has droppped a little in the first couple weeks of June without the Pacific support.


Top
#1500816 - 18/06/2019 12:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Cutofflow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8056
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Cutofflow
Pretty solid +IOD feedback going now, highlighted in the chart below. DMI Index now bouncing off above +1c. Won't match the IOD event in '94 but could give '06 a shake.

Fortunately rainfall anomalies this year are a big contrast to those previous years mentioned. Frontal activity and moisture from the Pacific have saved us through inland Vic so far, so fingers crossed we can get through the winter growing season unscathed - I'm tipping a hard finish in spring through inland VIC, SA & NSW.




....but which way is this tending?:


Top
#1500903 - 20/06/2019 14:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2597
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
The ENSO uncertainty period is lasting for a lot longer this year.

I think it would be a brave person to confidently predict what ENSO will be like in December.

Does not look like there will be a WWB this MJO cycle and while the shallow waters are warmer there is still a fair bit of cooler water underneath.

If anything for the time being it looks like the warm subsurface has peaked again and will need something to happen for it to re strengthen. The last WWB did not have that big of an effect as one would expect.

Top
#1500913 - 20/06/2019 17:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
amphetamarine Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2004
Posts: 363
Loc: Cairns
Do underwater volcanoes create temperature differences in the ocean depths

Top
#1500921 - 20/06/2019 19:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
One would assume so, to what degree is unclear

Top
#1500933 - 21/06/2019 07:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3816
Loc: Buderim
Next WWB is now underway. Forecast is a bit tricky with the MJO forecast to backtrack and fade, and trade wind forecasts suggesting a fairly mediocre WWB in the short term. However if the MJO still progresses into the Pacific beyond the short term forecast period it could build further.



The subsurface warming has been surprisingly lacklustre. One possible idea is that there is something happening with Rossby Waves and reflected subsurface cooling from the western boundary - which is stated as a theory of el nino decay, but I've never been able to clearly identify in the data.

Another thing I've been thinking about is whether contrast between easterlies and westerlies can push water together through convergence, or push up a bigger wave due to a high rate of change in trade winds. The previous WWB extended a long way east with a weak wind gradient on the eastern boundary, so it might make sense then that it has a higher impact on currents and surface warming, but lower impact on subsurface wave generation.

The current event has some strong easterly anomalies preceeding the WWB, so it will be interesting to see if that helps build a bigger wave. Or maybe the current stumble in MJO progress will result in a slow build up and make for another weaker wave. The transition from enhanced trade winds in far west to the current westerlies there is quite sharp though.




Top
#1500948 - 21/06/2019 10:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3816
Loc: Buderim
Is the blob on the way back? It first emerged in late 2013 and really got going in 2014. Comparing current with Same date 2013 shows warm water emerging in a very similar spot in NE Pacific. Also cool anomalies east and west both time, although the cool areas are much stronger this time. And so some unusual temperature gradients. I suspect something signficant is happening up that way, and maybe those cooler areas this time around will make for a different outcome.

Top
#1500950 - 21/06/2019 11:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Can't see anything but neutral neutral neutral for the foreseeable future - perhaps even a downgrade by the BoM to 'Inactive' next outlook.

Top
#1500968 - 21/06/2019 15:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
To me, that WWB looks much weaker than any of the ones we had last year. Everything seems very neutral to me too...maybe just a tad warm-neutral.

Top
#1500981 - 22/06/2019 00:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
amphetamarine Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2004
Posts: 363
Loc: Cairns
Is unclear clean energy?

Top
#1500984 - 22/06/2019 06:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3816
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Mega
To me, that WWB looks much weaker than any of the ones we had last year.


MJO is only just barely getting into WWB generating sectors within the short range forecast period. Too early to make much conclusions on how strong this WWB may or may not be.

Top
#1501001 - 22/06/2019 14:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 737
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Was just having a trawl through the rainfall anomalies, was absolutely shocked at the stats that have been put up. Just the sheer breadth of the deficits and the level of rainfall deficits in some very dry regions and wet regions is insane. Would take years of floods to alleviate the dryness. The Very wet Regions of Suggest some strong monsoon activity with a large amount of ridging to direct strong trades over Eastern NT and the North Tropical Coast.


Top
Page 44 of 53 < 1 2 ... 42 43 44 45 46 ... 52 53 >


Who's Online
1 registered (Homer), 52 Guests and 2 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Ree, tiz
Forum Stats
29947 Members
32 Forums
24189 Topics
1528929 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image