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#1485324 - 13/01/2019 19:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3816
Loc: Buderim
I provided some facts. Some people don't like them.

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#1485326 - 13/01/2019 19:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I provided some facts. Some people don't like them.


They weren't referring to November though.

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#1485329 - 13/01/2019 20:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I provided some facts. Some people don't like them.


With regards to the context, no you didnít. No one talked about November, because, you see, thatís actually autumn in the Northern Hemisphere.

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#1485334 - 13/01/2019 21:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1880
Loc: Kingaroy
A strong La Nina combined with a negative IOD would be a lifesaver for the agricultural sector.

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#1485348 - 13/01/2019 23:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: pete28]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: pete28
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
And Yet look at the record cold and huge snow depths across the NH. I wish I could find the article that talked about NH getting very cold and SH warming up in Grand Solar minimum. Certainly could get a sense something like that starting to happen as it approaches.... Because we have been having very hot summers and they have been having very cold winters. Whatever is happening its not just Australia being a land of extremes there is extreme ends of the spectrum happening simultaneously on either side of the earth.


Has it actually been a colder then average December and half of January though for Europe? Or just a few big snow events which most certainly doesnít always translate into colder then normal temps?


Honestly I havent checked charts Pete. Im sure MH will be itching to have his say, so I guess if December figures become available and Mike posts it, then they are warmer than average and if he doesnt they were colder than average.

I watch things other than charts and read a broad spectrum of stuff and the best dots to join are commentary of people on the ground who can give context to the level of cold and snow they are seeing. Figures sometimes just arent the same as human experience. Its like Obs hill being a fair representation of temperatures in Sydney. Most peoples experience would be quite different to what the "figures" suggest. Something as simple as the 9am reset can also skew things so as not to fit the human experience of how a particular day might have been for them. So figures and charts are important, but they are just one tool amongst many for joining dots.
Markets are good place to watch also....because even though they can be manipulated, ultimately they wont lie. So yes, wheat, corn, beef etc can be good indicators of global extremes of all sorts.

That same page has other recent articles on cold such as:
https://www.sott.net/article/404716-Heav...parts-of-Serbia
https://www.sott.net/article/404700-Worl...he-US-and-Japan
https://www.sott.net/article/404603-Ice-...d-Solar-Minimum

Seems the current cold may be related to a SSW and the displacement of the polar vortex. The result is extremes side by side. The video in the last link which i just watched (and have no particular attachment to) makes comments on that about half way through, but the back end of the video is a bit loaded for this thread so I would encourage people not to watch all of it.

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#1485352 - 14/01/2019 03:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2269
Loc: Maryfarms NQ

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#1485363 - 14/01/2019 08:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3816
Loc: Buderim
So is the so called grand solar minimum only supposed to have an impact since the current winter? I remember when temps temporarily dropped in 2008, this was blamed on this so called grand solar minimum. There were confident predictions that there would be further cooling due to the so called grand solar minimum, yet every year since then has been warmer. Every year since then whenever there has been cold weather somewhere its blamed on this so called grand solar minimum.

Temp pattern since 2008 for winter only, and against a more recent baseline to get rid of most of the long term trend.


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#1485365 - 14/01/2019 09:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8058
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Surely there is a significant lag between solar cycles and resultant impact on the earths climate?

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#1485368 - 14/01/2019 10:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
yes there will be a lag. GSM isnt even starting till 2022...so whilst we may be seeing some early effects the bulk of it will be in front of us. The grand solar cycles arent just some theory...they happen. And this one will happen too, but who knows if anthropogenic activities will offset its effects. Its certainly possible they could accentuate the extremes you would expect in GSM. I think thats what we are seeing more and more a world of extremes both side by side and in either hemisphere.

I suppose if by 2030 the warming trends are continuing over the whole earth, then I guess we are all doomed come 2055 when the GSM is supposed to finish and the slow return to normal solar activity begins. Most of us will be dead or decrepit by then anyway.

From what I can understand. Grand solar minimums are not really pleasant, and a cold world isnt a very productive world, so personally, I actually dont really want to see its massive disruptive potential to a planet of 7.5 billion people who all need to eat. Maybe if we can get Carbon to level or peak in the next 30-50 years, generations might look back and say lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse...or maybe it wont make an iota of difference how warm or cold it is now, or how much carbon there is or isnt in the atmosphere.

A world with this many people, and this much technology and this much reliance on the "system" rather than self sufficiency has never lived through an event like this, so I think none of us really has a damn clue whats going to happen.

Some really clever people think this is a good idea on the doorstep of GSM. Nucking Futs. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/geoengineer...HF-3W8mYG8FCsUA
Finally normalising the elephant.

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#1485408 - 14/01/2019 19:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5338
Loc: Not tellin!
Mike solar cycles last on average 11 years. How long ago was 2008......

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#1485437 - 14/01/2019 23:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 203
Loc: Peachester
"we may be seeing some early effects"

Really? What (global) effects are these? No effect where I live, in fact the opposite. Oops sorry, thats a local weather isn't it.


"so I think none of us really has a damn clue whats going to happen"

I do - sweet fa.The sun has been heading towards a minimum for decades ... effect - sweet fa.


"I suppose if by 2030 the warming trends are continuing over the whole earth, then I guess we are all doomed."
" lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse"

So lets do nothing, after all doomed is so much easier.

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#1485439 - 14/01/2019 23:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Meanwhile, after that diatribe, most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave (seems there isnít the hyperbolic version for a cold outbreak as there is a warm one...) with temps expected to drop up to 28 BELOW average. Thatís freaking cold.

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#1485449 - 15/01/2019 07:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 203
Loc: Peachester
Originally Posted By: Kino
28 BELOW average


Wheres that?

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#1485450 - 15/01/2019 07:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
"we may be seeing some early effects"

Really? What (global) effects are these? No effect where I live, in fact the opposite. Oops sorry, thats a local weather isn't it.


"so I think none of us really has a damn clue whats going to happen"

I do - sweet fa.The sun has been heading towards a minimum for decades ... effect - sweet fa.


"I suppose if by 2030 the warming trends are continuing over the whole earth, then I guess we are all doomed."
" lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse"

So lets do nothing, after all doomed is so much easier.



Maybe in Peachester there are no extremes happening, but a whole lot of places on the globe are experiencing extreme conditions. Volcanic eruptions increasing, earthquakes increasing. The effects I described are the extremes, happening side by side and across the globe. Suck your blue bill and turn Sunrise back on....maybe make a donation to the scientists who are about to "officially" start spraying substances in the sky to dim the sun.

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#1485451 - 15/01/2019 08:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2654
Originally Posted By: Kino
Meanwhile, after that diatribe, most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave (seems there isnít the hyperbolic version for a cold outbreak as there is a warm one...) with temps expected to drop up to 28 BELOW average. Thatís freaking cold.


The current US Forecast destroys the claim that "most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave"



The US is not the whole planet...

_________________________

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#1485452 - 15/01/2019 08:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
strangely enough....looks like extremes side by side. Hmmm

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#1485454 - 15/01/2019 08:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CeeBee]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
Originally Posted By: Kino
Meanwhile, after that diatribe, most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave (seems there isnít the hyperbolic version for a cold outbreak as there is a warm one...) with temps expected to drop up to 28 BELOW average. Thatís freaking cold.


The current US Forecast destroys the claim that "most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave"


If you look further ahead, it does look bloody cold through most of the US into the weekend and early next week though.

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#1485455 - 15/01/2019 08:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Forecasts only apply to the current day Mega. That claim was"destroyed" remember.

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#1485473 - 15/01/2019 10:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3816
Loc: Buderim
Global Forecast

Cold in US, but more relevant to us is warm in east Asia, and warm throughout the forecast period, implying less push from the north for the monsoon which has been very poor so far this season.

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#1485474 - 15/01/2019 10:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1880
Loc: Kingaroy
A failed monsoon usually results in big heatwaves down south as heat that is normally moderated by the monsoon filters down into the southern states.

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