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#1483770 - 02/01/2019 20:30 Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc)
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
A new year. Let's see what it brings .
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1483780 - 02/01/2019 21:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Warm neutral til May and then we see where things are at.

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#1483782 - 02/01/2019 22:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mega Offline
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Originally Posted By: Kino
Warm neutral til May and then we see where things are at.


What he said.

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#1483784 - 02/01/2019 22:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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Loc: The Beach.
Yep. Hopefully a wetter year but you'd be brave to back it.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1483820 - 03/01/2019 10:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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WWB anomaly is evident at the Kelvin wave generation zone atm, supported by a couple of tropical storm systems below the zone and the MJO now departing Aus region.

SST today, not much to report except my perceived coastal warming off NW WA.

US models hold the MJO at in the Pacific, European varieties favour a return to the Indian.

I think, in the short term (week or two), Aus will have a persistent heat low/easterly dip situation that will allow QLD moisture to advect into the country's south east.,

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#1483821 - 03/01/2019 10:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Generally it does look stormier for the next few weeks, but we shall see. If Penny can get her [censored] together and barrel sw like models thinks then we could see a very wet Jan.

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#1483825 - 03/01/2019 11:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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I don't see much change from the status quo in the next 10 days (for Sth East Qld region) unless EC's last run on Penny verifies. If it pushes back north like GFS and CMC have then it's back to more ridging and dry conditions.

Also ironically starting to see some hint of a more traditional ElNino surface pattern on NOAA's charts with the characteristic cooling across Torres Strait and the Coral Sea trying to emerge . A little late?
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1483829 - 03/01/2019 11:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Penny's moisture supply onto the continent and resulting rainfall is probably going to be a lot less than it could be. I have provided the EC forecast for crossing, combined with some crayon drawings of the ideal moisture flows, as would occur more often in a La Nina set up.



Stronger trade winds along the equator in the east would be diverted as NEs and feed into the low on the southern flank. The monsoon westerlies would be bent around the north side of the low to join this stream.

However with much warmer water out in the central Pacific we see a significant low pressure system out past New Caledonia. This is totally blocking the NE flow, and diverting a substantial portion of the NW flow into a Westerly wind burst and away from TC Penny.

The eastern flow further south, supported by the Tasman Sea High is still quite healthy.

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#1483844 - 03/01/2019 14:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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As I suspected, SSTs have continued to soar through the high pressure blocking region, no different to last year. That's two years in a row despite the Pacific being cold last year and warm this year. Something much closer to home in play here?


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#1483850 - 03/01/2019 14:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Well they would given that high has been there for 4 months. Wish that warmer water was along the coast, it’s damn frigid here - only 17c yest thanks to upwelling.

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#1483853 - 03/01/2019 15:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
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Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Penny's moisture supply onto the continent and resulting rainfall is probably going to be a lot less than it could be. I have provided the EC forecast for crossing, combined with some crayon drawings of the ideal moisture flows, as would occur more often in a La Nina set up.



Stronger trade winds along the equator in the east would be diverted as NEs and feed into the low on the southern flank. The monsoon westerlies would be bent around the north side of the low to join this stream.

However with much warmer water out in the central Pacific we see a significant low pressure system out past New Caledonia. This is totally blocking the NE flow, and diverting a substantial portion of the NW flow into a Westerly wind burst and away from TC Penny.

The eastern flow further south, supported by the Tasman Sea High is still quite healthy.


Looks fine....healthy NE indeed.


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#1483855 - 03/01/2019 15:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
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Totally blocking the NE flow? Don't think so, plenty of fuel should be dragged into that system despite the other low.

It may seem a bit cut off for now, but the supply will become healthier the longer Penny stays out there https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shwvgms.html

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#1483856 - 03/01/2019 15:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Yeah I’m not sure why anyone would use an 850hpa wind model chart to show moisture movement into a TC...when it’s all surface based. 🙄🙄 TC’s rely on surface moisture not mid level moisture.


Edited by Kino (03/01/2019 15:21)

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#1483857 - 03/01/2019 15:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
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Technically they do need moisture in all levels, otherwise if too much dry air enters at 850hp it can deprive the system. However, the moisture source from the NW (at that particular level) should be sufficient and act as a fuel source as it moves back toward the coast. To say there's a total block of the NE flow is a bit silly.

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#1483859 - 03/01/2019 15:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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Despite the lack of equatorial easterlies wrapping into the system like you'd sometimes see during a La-Nina, the strength of the current monsoonal flow is more than enough to wrap around and fuel these lows. So, I think it looks fine tbh.

Originally Posted By: Kino
Yeah I’m not sure why anyone would use an 850hpa wind model chart to show moisture movement into a TC...when it’s all surface based. 🙄🙄 TC’s rely on surface moisture not mid level moisture.


Nah, it's not all surface. You sometimes see cyclones struggle with dry air intrusion when there's a significant upper level trough just downstream from the TC. Sometimes, dry air in the mid-levels gets brought up from the south behind these troughs which affects convection around the LLCC.

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#1483862 - 03/01/2019 15:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Well perhaps post an 850hpa moisture chart not a wind chart?

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#1483866 - 03/01/2019 15:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Totally blocks of the long distance NE flow, as marked by the heavy black line I added to the chart. This is the flow that transfers large amounts of moisture from the equatorial easterlies onto the Australian Continent when Walker circulation is active and local patterns are favourable.

Yes there is still a local NE flow, and yes there is plenty enough moisture for a cyclone and rain. But not nearly as much moisture as there could be if ENSO was more favourable. Rainfall totals near the center of the cyclone will be as high, but the rainfall totals will drop off a lot quicker as you move away from the cyclone, and as the cyclone moves inland than they would with a strong long range NE flow.

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#1483872 - 03/01/2019 16:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
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Mike you are definitely correct that the equatorial moisture is not as great as it would be with a La Nina or Neutral.
With Easterlies basically not existent at the edge of the nino 4 region. Although what your drawing misses is other monsoonal low drawing a meridonal wind flow which combines a high sitting south below it to drive long fetch easterlies from more central areas of the pacific. Hence providing adequate fuel which will see inland areas pick up decent rain.




Edited by ashestoashes (03/01/2019 16:33)

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#1483880 - 03/01/2019 17:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
/sigh. More huge pictures requiring sideways scrolling.

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#1483884 - 03/01/2019 17:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
No such problem for me with 125% zoom on a 22" monitor .
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1483905 - 03/01/2019 18:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Very informative posts today all smile

Didnt like to see GFS's latest "stealing Penny from us" just now.

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#1483906 - 03/01/2019 18:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
GFS would be good for us in Sth East Qld but I cannot see it verifying. There would need to be a dramatic change in the uppers before it came our way.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1483963 - 04/01/2019 09:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Trades look to be weaker in Nino3.4 this morning, sky clear above it acc. to the satellite images, yet SST there seems to be backing off?:



Nino1.2 has cooled, yet Nino.3 remains static at circa +0.6C as it has been for several weeks.

I would have thought these conditions would hold Nino3.4 anomalously warm?

I note that most MJO models have it dashing across phase 6 over next couple of days, after that, very little consensus, so likely to go null imo.


Edited by Petros (04/01/2019 09:58)

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#1483975 - 04/01/2019 11:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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I'm somewhat suspiscious of that daily series. I doubt nino 3.4 really went from 0.5 to 1.5 and then back again within the space of 2 weeks in late Oct, early Nov.

There may be a cool Kelvin wave from the trade wind surge recently in about the nino 3.4 region. The current WWB would not have impacted nino 3.4 but should be starting to impact 4 about now.

Waiting for US to sort out their govt shutdown so TAO comes back online......

Petros, By most MJO models are your referring to this set or roughly similar?

EC seems to be winning out with its much faster passage through zones 6, but GFS hasn't totally given up on a stall in the Pacific. All models show some weakening of the MJO signal following passage through the Pacific, with GFS showing slight weakening but backtrack through Pacific and most other models showing a fair bit of weakening as it progresses towards Indian.

While GFS is falling into line on MJO, it is maintaining the strength and duration of the forecast WWB, with EC having upgraded partway to meet GFS, but still somewhat weaker, and stronger signs of ending at the 10 day point than GFS even at the 14 day point.

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#1483985 - 04/01/2019 12:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Yep Mike, that MJO model set. I guess the MJO passage into the western/central Pacific will dictate winds along the equator over next 5 days. Will be interesting to watch.

Re rapid SST spikes/troughs, yep same, ...seems very rapid in the absence of a significant tropical storm system.

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#1484009 - 04/01/2019 14:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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I bet if it was the other way around, ie warming, it would go unquestioned 🙄 anyway Niño 3.4 has majorly cooled. 0.7c in a few weeks is a huge turnaround and removes any doubt re Modiki or a late Niño.

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#1484072 - 04/01/2019 19:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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I have always preferred to rely on the BOM stats for nino 3.4 during more than 10 years of posting on this forum. I ignored the daily stats when it warmed well into moderate el nino status at 1.5. Your claims that if it was the other way around I wouldn't question it is nonsense and insulting.



Nino indexes will be back close to their previous peaks, and possibly higher fairly quickly with the currently occurring WWB.

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#1484094 - 04/01/2019 21:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Noted both. Agree with both points, ......but tempered by my refusal to acknowledge that a 30 year period 1980 on, is in any way representative of a dataset to create a (eg. 0.5C warm((or cool)) sea surface (esp. below the sea surface) anomaly.

....just my perspective, learning, but definitely a tiro on this subject.

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#1484341 - 06/01/2019 12:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Looks like dry, dry, dry to continue. High still located off New Zealand.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...12month&area=qd

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#1484360 - 06/01/2019 14:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Not dry for everyone, 70mm or almost the whole months average, here yest with more storms forecast this week smile


Edited by Kino (06/01/2019 14:34)

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#1484387 - 06/01/2019 19:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Westerly actuals, and lighter easterly anomaly evident on the south edge of the Kelvin Wave generation zone (Pacific Ocean +/- 3 deg of equator from New Guinea to date line) at the moment - due to the cyclones out that way.

If this wind zone was a few degrees higher, might have seen the development of a kelvin wave?


Edited by Petros (06/01/2019 19:25)

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#1484428 - 07/01/2019 07:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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What happens following the WWB if the Pacific trades pick straight back up again? I ask because models are showing a healthy burst of trades again later this week through the central and eastern Pacific.

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#1484431 - 07/01/2019 07:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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$64m question Mega BUT the current SST anomalies in the South Pacific are fascinating tbh - you look at South America and you’d swear a La Niña is breeding, you look at central and eastpac and El Niño.

The other thing is the coldness of the Southern Ocean - can’t recall ever seeing it so below average for the whole ocean from about 50s and below.

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#1484439 - 07/01/2019 09:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Originally Posted By: Mega
What happens following the WWB if the Pacific trades pick straight back up again? I ask because models are showing a healthy burst of trades again later this week through the central and eastern Pacific.


A continuation of the pattern so far. Each WWB has been followed by a return to a near normal trades which has slowed down but not reversed the upward trend. Although we are now in the season when ENSO events typically decay. It does remain to be seen whether the last trade surge caused enough cooling that the current WWB won't reach a new peak.

One thing I note with the MJO recently active through Indian and Australian regions has left relatively cool water near Australia and Coral Sea. This seems to be why the current MJO forecast suggest a rapid and weak passage through Indian and Australian regions which may allow a quicker follow up with the next WWB.

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#1484444 - 07/01/2019 10:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Yep, the MJO zapped across the Pacific Ocean zones in only 5 days! I shouldnt be surprised, as the majority of models forecast this. The warm water in Nino3.4 refuses to snare a tropical convection period, remaining uncoupled as all here have noted.

Pacific EQ SST's are falling slightly across the Nino.4 zone, leaving the hottest water again in AUS GOC and around Darwin. SST from Onslow up to Broome is clearly warming when you compare todays SST actual values with those of the past couple of months.

My guess, more of the same for AUS over next 2 weeks with the X factor being "will the next cyclone be one off Darwin?".

That, along with looking for a resumption of strong trades along the EQ Pacific will be what Petros will be monitoring this week (also another closer study of many of the oceaninc climate report links that several of you folk have kindly provided me over the past 6 weeks).

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#1484445 - 07/01/2019 10:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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If the trades kick back into gear, with that colder water welling near Sth America, I wouldn't be surprised if we head back to Neutral territory, and rapidly. The MJO, as noted, did not persist long enough to cause any major warming IMO.

The next BoM outlook is due tomorrow so we will hear their thoughts for the weeks ahead.

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#1484536 - 07/01/2019 21:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Could all that cold water help trigger a La Nina?

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#1484571 - 07/01/2019 23:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Need to see what the subsurface is doing.

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#1484658 - 08/01/2019 15:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
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We are still ENSO neutral according to BoM.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1484663 - 08/01/2019 15:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Originally Posted By: BoM
Tropical Pacific Ocean surface waters have returned to ENSO-neutral temperatures after exceeding El Niño levels in November and early December. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT.
While waters at and beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific have been warmer than average since mid-2018, atmospheric indicators of ENSO such as cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have not responded and have mostly remained neutral. For an El Niño to become established, the atmosphere needs to reinforce and respond to the warmer waters at the ocean's surface. This reinforcement is what allows the widespread global effects on weather and climate to occur.
The recent cooling of tropical Pacific waters may partly reflect the movement of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has recently encouraged stronger trade winds over the tropical Pacific. However, the MJO is moving east, weakening the trade winds once again, which may allow the ocean surface to warm again.
Most models indicate sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to remain near El Niño levels at least until early autumn 2019. Models typically have less skill when forecasting through autumn compared with other seasons. If sea surface temperatures do maintain their anomalous warmth through summer, it increases the chance of El Niño emerging in 2019.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April.


Interesting subsurface!







Edited by Kino (08/01/2019 15:57)

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#1484712 - 08/01/2019 19:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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The current subsurface data wipes out the developing cool pool in the west. If true this would make el nino much more likely the rest of the year. I think this is unlikely, and note that the current data is the output of a model, and is only partly based on observations. Waiting to see when govt shutdown finishes and we can see what TAO shows.

GFS shows a short burst of above average trades in the center later in the week and early next week, flanked by westerlies anomalies both west and east. It only lasts a few days before westerlies return. EC agrees over its forecast period but the return of the westerlies in GFS is beyond the 10 day EC period. EC does set up a large area of low pressure in central Pac which typically leads to westerlies by day 10, even more so than GFS, and current MJO forecasts suggest MJO back in the Pacific fairly quickly.

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#1484722 - 08/01/2019 19:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
RC Offline
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Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


GFS shows a short burst of above average trades in the center later in the week and early next week, flanked by westerlies anomalies both west and east.


But are they westerlies.

I have been watching and it has been rare to see real westerlies.

A lot of the time recently it has been south westerlies. They have been blowing at an angle to the equator.

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#1484757 - 08/01/2019 23:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
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Looks like westerlies to me.

Sub-surface cooling mightn't do a lot for present status if processes like entrainment are stymied.

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#1484791 - 09/01/2019 09:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
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Registered: 01/07/2007
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Outflow from Asia has weakened waiting for the next intense Siberian high, so has the westerly flow, not helped by slow moving westward moving low now near India.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan11.4(150),Feb47.0(152),Mar285.6(136),Apr97.0(92),May37.4(89),Jun63.6(77)YTD542.0(696)

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#1484798 - 09/01/2019 09:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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After a decent lull the SSL anomaly chart has been updated to Jan 3rd, shows no low level anomaly at Nino.4 (or any area across EQ Pacific atm).

I see SST cooling through Nino.3 into Nino3.4, no tropical cloud W of the dateline and the MJO strong at the moment in phase 8 near dateline - set to go null quickly over the next 4-5 days acc. to all MJO models.

The WWB zone above New Guinea into Nino.4 zone looks to be reducing back to a more normal trade wind regime (anomaly evident over past 5 days or so has weakened significantly imo.

Hottest new equatorial SST on earth is in the GOC atm, waters off Broome continuing to creep up warmer.

So I reckon a tropical storm mooted to form near Darwin during the weekend, per several models, looks a high chance. That would stir things up rainwise for Aus should it develop.

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#1484799 - 09/01/2019 10:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Kino
[quote=BoM]


The state of the present is typically based on the anomaly, yet to me, there is no consensus on the anomaly base line time frame, see above, yet for example, CDAS uses 1981-2010.

I bet you could change the SST anomaly by up to a degree by simply selecting either of the two datasets outlined on this post!

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#1484800 - 09/01/2019 10:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Oops re: "no tropical cloud W of the dateline" in my post #1484798 above that should read E of the dateline, not W.

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#1484841 - 09/01/2019 15:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2583
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Petros
That would stir things up rainwise for Aus should it develop.


Seems to me the highs are still stagnant off New Zealand stopping the ridge along inland queenland to move.

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#1484923 - 10/01/2019 10:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep RC, the hated Quidge. Kills rain in SE Vic too.

Nino3.4 seems to be trending cooler rather than warmer?:



Their is a tongue of cooler actual SST along EQ Pacific into Nino.3 becoming evident in the daily actual SST chart on Tropical Tidbits - right where Windy shows the trades blowing healthily.

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#1484950 - 10/01/2019 15:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 722
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Next few weeks looks to be torrid throughout the continent. SAM looks to be shifting into a negative phase. Highs will be sitting north enough for ridging through inland AUS. Definitely locking a dry and hot period.

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#1484958 - 10/01/2019 16:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 892
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Don’t like the look of that Ash. Not good for bush fires. If it does go south I feel the affects have a lag of one or 2 weeks.

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#1484961 - 10/01/2019 16:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1484970 - 10/01/2019 17:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8798
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
The models have the highs about their average position for the forseeable future, seems to be a bit of a shift in patterns toward the end of the latest EC run. One thing I'm watching is the possible TC off WA and how much interaction it will have with the upcoming heat fronts. From experience, the end of Jan/early Feb are potent when it comes to tropical systems interacting with the southern ones. Next few weeks will tell a story.

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#1485058 - 11/01/2019 11:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
MJO set to go null over the weekend, going by todays SatIR .....looks like it's already null imo.

So we now wait to see if a tropical system develops near Darwin next week?

Good rain in FNQ from Penny still occurring, nice to see.

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#1485093 - 11/01/2019 16:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 892
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Looks like the AAO has backed off. Only neg for a few days . Let’s hope this trend continues.

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#1485118 - 11/01/2019 18:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
GFS latest run has now "seen" a tropical low to develop off Darwin early next week as per CMC/EC/AccG have been mooting for several days.

For my 2 bob's - would have bet that ex TC Penny's remnants would have stirred up a storm in the GOC before then. Probably explains why Petros never made the Aus rich list.

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#1485159 - 11/01/2019 20:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 892
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
You should probably post less. Petros .

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#1485231 - 12/01/2019 16:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5337
Loc: Not tellin!
Rude much?

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#1485233 - 12/01/2019 17:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Tiss OK, I'm sure that most regular posters on here know that I'm only a weather tiro.

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#1485241 - 12/01/2019 19:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 892
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Is it a weather thread or climate? What happened to the widespread rain and cyclone off Darwin? Does 30 years of data insufficient to 3 months of screenshots of sst’s? If you want people to believe you. Post less. Oh IMO!

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#1485246 - 12/01/2019 19:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
You’re a rude troll and contribute nothing to this tread other than bile, sod off.

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#1485248 - 12/01/2019 20:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Petros
Tiss OK, I'm sure that most regular posters on here know that I'm only a weather tiro.


I enjoy your input Petros . Don't stop posting .
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1485255 - 12/01/2019 22:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2583
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Looks like dry weather set to continue for the foreseeable future.

Still no widespread rain events to happen. That being a large vigorous trough system.

No two ways about it that we are still stuck in a multi year dry event.

I am not entirely convinced yet we will see an El Nino officially form, probably stay as a la nada with devastating consequences for the country.

On another US based forum they are all but convinced a big El Nino will form based on the current wind event near PNG. Unfortunately the US government shutdown is restricting data availability to see what the subsurface anomalies are currently doing.

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#1485256 - 12/01/2019 23:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 892
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Originally Posted By: Kino
You’re a rude troll and contribute nothing to this tread other than bile, sod off.
rude troll? I’ve seen your twitter feed.

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#1485258 - 13/01/2019 01:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2268
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Is it a weather thread or climate? What happened to the widespread rain and cyclone off Darwin? Does 30 years of data insufficient to 3 months of screenshots of sst’s? If you want people to believe you. Post less. Oh IMO!

And your efforts are so much more important ? Pull your head in you dweeb.

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#1485261 - 13/01/2019 06:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
She's one dry, scorched country atm. Might as well throw away the SAM since it hasn't been representative of Australia's recent climate pattern - in fact, far from it.. ENSO? Nope. Almost identical pattern occurred during weak Nina / cool-neutral. IOD? Nope. Same happened when IOD was previously negative in 2016.

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#1485280 - 13/01/2019 11:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1880
Loc: Kingaroy
This drought will break eventually and when it does it will be dramatic.

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#1485284 - 13/01/2019 12:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
It gets said, ad nauseum, but Dorothea MacKellar nailed it back in the late 1800’s “...of drought and flooding rains...”. If she can recognise that, not being a climate scientist and not homogenising data, why do we still struggle? We will have drier times and wetter times. It will reset and we will go back to flooding rains. It seems our continent isn’t about fairly stable climates but extremes.


Edited by Kino (13/01/2019 12:58)

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#1485286 - 13/01/2019 14:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
One of the model outputs on CFS 3.4 anomalies have it tanking pretty much from Feb on down to -2.5. I would like to see a few more runs show up like that!
I have never been convinced of an El nino this time round. Looks like westerlies back right off again after this latest round....and there is a heap of cold water south of the equator that could move north and be quite erosive to any subsurface warmth in the far east Pac. Quick switch to big La nina please...
Of course there is more runs pushing for a result the other way and warming to 2.5 but something just doesnt feel right with that side of the ledger for some reason.

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#1485288 - 13/01/2019 14:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 722
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: Kino
It gets said, ad nauseum, but Dorothea MacKellar nailed it back in the late 1800’s “...of drought and flooding rains...”. If she can recognise that, not being a climate scientist and not homogenising data, why do we still struggle? We will have drier times and wetter times. It will reset and we will go back to flooding rains. It seems our continent isn’t about fairly stable climates but extremes.


That's a quite well understood idea by climate scientists. Although the problem is that we are a land of extremes becoming more extreme. Anyone can understand that higher temperatures will lead to more evaporation, exacerbating a drought. While per 1 degree of warming that's 7% more global precipitable.

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#1485293 - 13/01/2019 15:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
And Yet look at the record cold and huge snow depths across the NH. I wish I could find the article that talked about NH getting very cold and SH warming up in Grand Solar minimum. Certainly could get a sense something like that starting to happen as it approaches.... Because we have been having very hot summers and they have been having very cold winters. Whatever is happening its not just Australia being a land of extremes there is extreme ends of the spectrum happening simultaneously on either side of the earth.

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#1485294 - 13/01/2019 15:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 722
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
I wonder if there were some very unconventional investors who followed things like the Grand Solar minimum. Put money into things such as wheat futures they would have made an amazing amount of money.

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#1485295 - 13/01/2019 15:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ashestoashes]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
I wonder if there were some very unconventional investors who followed things like the Grand Solar minimum. Put money into things such as wheat futures they would have made an amazing amount of money.


Hell yes...some very smart money on this stuff...

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#1485297 - 13/01/2019 15:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
And Yet look at the record cold and huge snow depths across the NH.



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#1485298 - 13/01/2019 15:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
https://www.sott.net/article/404782-From...TCqeRXng_VLityU

Its January MH. November isnt Winter. Cherry picking professional you are.

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#1485300 - 13/01/2019 16:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Yeah, I'm not sure why Mike posted a chart of November?

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#1485306 - 13/01/2019 17:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Because global data sets for Dec aren't available.

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#1485316 - 13/01/2019 18:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1164
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
And Yet look at the record cold and huge snow depths across the NH. I wish I could find the article that talked about NH getting very cold and SH warming up in Grand Solar minimum. Certainly could get a sense something like that starting to happen as it approaches.... Because we have been having very hot summers and they have been having very cold winters. Whatever is happening its not just Australia being a land of extremes there is extreme ends of the spectrum happening simultaneously on either side of the earth.


Has it actually been a colder then average December and half of January though for Europe? Or just a few big snow events which most certainly doesn’t always translate into colder then normal temps?

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#1485321 - 13/01/2019 18:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Because global data sets for Dec aren't available.


So, again, why bother posting it? It wasn’t relevant, it isn’t recent and it was nothing but a cherry pick. Fancy putting up an autumn chart when they were talking about winter. Disingenuous at the very least.

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#1485322 - 13/01/2019 19:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
https://www.sott.net/article/404782-From...TCqeRXng_VLityU

Its January MH. November isnt Winter. Cherry picking professional you are.


What did Mike provide on this?

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#1485324 - 13/01/2019 19:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
I provided some facts. Some people don't like them.

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#1485326 - 13/01/2019 19:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I provided some facts. Some people don't like them.


They weren't referring to November though.

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#1485329 - 13/01/2019 20:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I provided some facts. Some people don't like them.


With regards to the context, no you didn’t. No one talked about November, because, you see, that’s actually autumn in the Northern Hemisphere.

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#1485334 - 13/01/2019 21:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1880
Loc: Kingaroy
A strong La Nina combined with a negative IOD would be a lifesaver for the agricultural sector.

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#1485348 - 13/01/2019 23:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: pete28]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: pete28
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
And Yet look at the record cold and huge snow depths across the NH. I wish I could find the article that talked about NH getting very cold and SH warming up in Grand Solar minimum. Certainly could get a sense something like that starting to happen as it approaches.... Because we have been having very hot summers and they have been having very cold winters. Whatever is happening its not just Australia being a land of extremes there is extreme ends of the spectrum happening simultaneously on either side of the earth.


Has it actually been a colder then average December and half of January though for Europe? Or just a few big snow events which most certainly doesn’t always translate into colder then normal temps?


Honestly I havent checked charts Pete. Im sure MH will be itching to have his say, so I guess if December figures become available and Mike posts it, then they are warmer than average and if he doesnt they were colder than average.

I watch things other than charts and read a broad spectrum of stuff and the best dots to join are commentary of people on the ground who can give context to the level of cold and snow they are seeing. Figures sometimes just arent the same as human experience. Its like Obs hill being a fair representation of temperatures in Sydney. Most peoples experience would be quite different to what the "figures" suggest. Something as simple as the 9am reset can also skew things so as not to fit the human experience of how a particular day might have been for them. So figures and charts are important, but they are just one tool amongst many for joining dots.
Markets are good place to watch also....because even though they can be manipulated, ultimately they wont lie. So yes, wheat, corn, beef etc can be good indicators of global extremes of all sorts.

That same page has other recent articles on cold such as:
https://www.sott.net/article/404716-Heav...parts-of-Serbia
https://www.sott.net/article/404700-Worl...he-US-and-Japan
https://www.sott.net/article/404603-Ice-...d-Solar-Minimum

Seems the current cold may be related to a SSW and the displacement of the polar vortex. The result is extremes side by side. The video in the last link which i just watched (and have no particular attachment to) makes comments on that about half way through, but the back end of the video is a bit loaded for this thread so I would encourage people not to watch all of it.

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#1485352 - 14/01/2019 03:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2268
Loc: Maryfarms NQ

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#1485363 - 14/01/2019 08:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
So is the so called grand solar minimum only supposed to have an impact since the current winter? I remember when temps temporarily dropped in 2008, this was blamed on this so called grand solar minimum. There were confident predictions that there would be further cooling due to the so called grand solar minimum, yet every year since then has been warmer. Every year since then whenever there has been cold weather somewhere its blamed on this so called grand solar minimum.

Temp pattern since 2008 for winter only, and against a more recent baseline to get rid of most of the long term trend.


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#1485365 - 14/01/2019 09:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Surely there is a significant lag between solar cycles and resultant impact on the earths climate?

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#1485368 - 14/01/2019 10:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
yes there will be a lag. GSM isnt even starting till 2022...so whilst we may be seeing some early effects the bulk of it will be in front of us. The grand solar cycles arent just some theory...they happen. And this one will happen too, but who knows if anthropogenic activities will offset its effects. Its certainly possible they could accentuate the extremes you would expect in GSM. I think thats what we are seeing more and more a world of extremes both side by side and in either hemisphere.

I suppose if by 2030 the warming trends are continuing over the whole earth, then I guess we are all doomed come 2055 when the GSM is supposed to finish and the slow return to normal solar activity begins. Most of us will be dead or decrepit by then anyway.

From what I can understand. Grand solar minimums are not really pleasant, and a cold world isnt a very productive world, so personally, I actually dont really want to see its massive disruptive potential to a planet of 7.5 billion people who all need to eat. Maybe if we can get Carbon to level or peak in the next 30-50 years, generations might look back and say lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse...or maybe it wont make an iota of difference how warm or cold it is now, or how much carbon there is or isnt in the atmosphere.

A world with this many people, and this much technology and this much reliance on the "system" rather than self sufficiency has never lived through an event like this, so I think none of us really has a damn clue whats going to happen.

Some really clever people think this is a good idea on the doorstep of GSM. Nucking Futs. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/geoengineer...HF-3W8mYG8FCsUA
Finally normalising the elephant.

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#1485408 - 14/01/2019 19:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5337
Loc: Not tellin!
Mike solar cycles last on average 11 years. How long ago was 2008......

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#1485437 - 14/01/2019 23:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
"we may be seeing some early effects"

Really? What (global) effects are these? No effect where I live, in fact the opposite. Oops sorry, thats a local weather isn't it.


"so I think none of us really has a damn clue whats going to happen"

I do - sweet fa.The sun has been heading towards a minimum for decades ... effect - sweet fa.


"I suppose if by 2030 the warming trends are continuing over the whole earth, then I guess we are all doomed."
" lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse"

So lets do nothing, after all doomed is so much easier.

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#1485439 - 14/01/2019 23:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Meanwhile, after that diatribe, most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave (seems there isn’t the hyperbolic version for a cold outbreak as there is a warm one...) with temps expected to drop up to 28 BELOW average. That’s freaking cold.

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#1485449 - 15/01/2019 07:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
Originally Posted By: Kino
28 BELOW average


Wheres that?

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#1485450 - 15/01/2019 07:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
"we may be seeing some early effects"

Really? What (global) effects are these? No effect where I live, in fact the opposite. Oops sorry, thats a local weather isn't it.


"so I think none of us really has a damn clue whats going to happen"

I do - sweet fa.The sun has been heading towards a minimum for decades ... effect - sweet fa.


"I suppose if by 2030 the warming trends are continuing over the whole earth, then I guess we are all doomed."
" lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse"

So lets do nothing, after all doomed is so much easier.



Maybe in Peachester there are no extremes happening, but a whole lot of places on the globe are experiencing extreme conditions. Volcanic eruptions increasing, earthquakes increasing. The effects I described are the extremes, happening side by side and across the globe. Suck your blue bill and turn Sunrise back on....maybe make a donation to the scientists who are about to "officially" start spraying substances in the sky to dim the sun.

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#1485451 - 15/01/2019 08:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2649
Originally Posted By: Kino
Meanwhile, after that diatribe, most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave (seems there isn’t the hyperbolic version for a cold outbreak as there is a warm one...) with temps expected to drop up to 28 BELOW average. That’s freaking cold.


The current US Forecast destroys the claim that "most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave"



The US is not the whole planet...

_________________________

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#1485452 - 15/01/2019 08:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
strangely enough....looks like extremes side by side. Hmmm

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#1485454 - 15/01/2019 08:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CeeBee]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
Originally Posted By: Kino
Meanwhile, after that diatribe, most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave (seems there isn’t the hyperbolic version for a cold outbreak as there is a warm one...) with temps expected to drop up to 28 BELOW average. That’s freaking cold.


The current US Forecast destroys the claim that "most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave"


If you look further ahead, it does look bloody cold through most of the US into the weekend and early next week though.

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#1485455 - 15/01/2019 08:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Forecasts only apply to the current day Mega. That claim was"destroyed" remember.

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#1485473 - 15/01/2019 10:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Global Forecast

Cold in US, but more relevant to us is warm in east Asia, and warm throughout the forecast period, implying less push from the north for the monsoon which has been very poor so far this season.

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#1485474 - 15/01/2019 10:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1880
Loc: Kingaroy
A failed monsoon usually results in big heatwaves down south as heat that is normally moderated by the monsoon filters down into the southern states.

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#1485482 - 15/01/2019 11:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Temps appear to have topped out in Nino.4, not as many 30C spots on the daily SST chart.



Will be interesting to see where the SOI ends up in a fortnights time as the new cycle commences - not much pressure difference Darwin-Tahiti atm with the MJO null.

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#1485483 - 15/01/2019 11:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
It's actually a high hpa hadley cell moving over the
continent that brings heatwaves and is also is a key driver
for the incoming monsoon troughs.

@Chris Stumer


Edited by vorts (15/01/2019 11:22)

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#1485489 - 15/01/2019 12:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hi Vorts - do you have a diagram to assist in your explanation above?

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#1485523 - 15/01/2019 16:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
The Hadley cell is formed when warm air rises near the equator and comes back down around 30° south latitude. It then flows back northward towards the equator along the surface.

https://imgur.com/Vyon8fi

https://imgur.com/np5DQcq

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#1485533 - 15/01/2019 18:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks for that Vorts.

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#1485544 - 15/01/2019 20:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Looking at Europe and Asia, both look very warm (particularly Asia) in comparison to the upcoming cold-snap across the US.

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#1485550 - 15/01/2019 21:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Europe looks frigid? Dunno what charts you’re looking at, and indeed Russia and Asia look warm, which is not unsurprising given the extreme cold in the US and Western Europe.

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#1485551 - 15/01/2019 21:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
And Ceebee for the lol of the week - posting a one day chart to attack, as usual. 🙄🙄🙄🙄

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#1485553 - 15/01/2019 22:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I still don't see anything 'extreme' about the cold in Western Europe though. I am looping https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...019011506&fh=0. Correct me if I'm wrong. And I did say, "In comparison to the upcoming cold-snap in the US."

I'm seeing a few news articles out there, "Snow expected to cover Scotland this week as temperatures reach below freezing point." Well, doesn't that happen every year?

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#1485554 - 15/01/2019 22:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 722
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
There were some extreme lows across Europe recorded with a record low of -23C in northern Greece. Although nitpicking data is not the best representation, so here is an image of the temperature predictions posted in a Bloomberg Article on the 8th of Jan. Note there was a severe dip recorded , which was what people were referring to although the warming cycles around it were also quite notable though.


Disclaimer I know there is no El Nino occuring though, but how similar do the temperature anomalies in Cebee's chart look to the CONUS temperature anomaly for a moderate-strong El Nino.

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#1485555 - 15/01/2019 22:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Thanks ashes.

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#1485558 - 15/01/2019 22:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...19011418&fh=144

This shows plenty of anomalies up to -12 before warming next week.

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#1485584 - 16/01/2019 09:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
Ahh, now I see where the -28 came from.

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#1485592 - 16/01/2019 10:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
EQ cloud seems to be building around Indonesia again, as you'd expect with most MJO models forecasting a return to the Aus region in coming days. Still mooted to create a tropical storm SW of Indonesia this time around by some models, .....but not close to Aus.

Pacific EQ trades pumping freshly all the way into central Nino.4, interestingly Nino1.2 is trending warmer over the past week.

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#1485600 - 16/01/2019 10:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Passage of MJO into Indian Ocean zones 2/3 seems to correspond quite closely to a renewed surge of trade winds, even though MJO strength is pretty much at minimum. Passage back to West Pacific looks to be very quick, compared to last passage through the La Nina friendly zones which saw a short stall.

Not sure why the warming in the east - would have thought last trade surge would have a cool Kelvin wave in that location.



Still waiting for TAO to come back online to see what exactly happened with the WWB finishing just now, and the subsurface. I noticed from BOM that other ocean temp data seems to have gone missing as well. Compare current analysis with December. The top panel is totally blank for January, but filled with crosses for December marking observation locations. Maybe these charts are always like this for the current month? I don't check them often, but do check from time to time and don't recall noticing this before.

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#1485644 - 16/01/2019 15:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
"we may be seeing some early effects"

Really? What (global) effects are these? No effect where I live, in fact the opposite. Oops sorry, thats a local weather isn't it.


"so I think none of us really has a damn clue whats going to happen"

I do - sweet fa.The sun has been heading towards a minimum for decades ... effect - sweet fa.


"I suppose if by 2030 the warming trends are continuing over the whole earth, then I guess we are all doomed."
" lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse"

So lets do nothing, after all doomed is so much easier.



Maybe in Peachester there are no extremes happening, but a whole lot of places on the globe are experiencing extreme conditions. Volcanic eruptions increasing, earthquakes increasing. The effects I described are the extremes, happening side by side and across the globe. Suck your blue bill and turn Sunrise back on....maybe make a donation to the scientists who are about to "officially" start spraying substances in the sky to dim the sun.



Whoa there Gringo...

First, you were talking about the so-called GSM and how cold it could get. You didn't mention extremes, volcanoes or earthquakes. In fact you said: "...lucky we went into that GSM", which presumably means you think things might not get too extreme.

I point out to you that although, yes, the insolation we receive from the sun is reducing, that has been happening for decades. At the same time as global temperatures climb more steeply. Corelation? Zero. Sweet fa.

There's your elephant. And what on earth does: "Suck your blue bill and turn Sunrise back on" mean?

Btw Peachester has been extremely hot and extremely dry (compared to the 120 year records at Crohamhurst a few ks away) for the past 4 or 5 years.

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#1485656 - 16/01/2019 15:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Sorry Delta-T we are talking a totally different language.

You have misquoted what I actually wrote, so your context is all wrong.

Volcanos and earthquakes are linked to solar minimum periods so relevant.

Solar insolation is relevant but is not my elephant. I have been dropping breadcrumbs for a while. Some might join the dots. Doesnt matter if not.

Should be blue pill. Sorry if you dont get it. Im only speaking to those that do.

Its extremely hot and dry here for 4 years also. I'm experiencing what is happening just as much as anyone else. My farm is running out of water. I have my eyes wide open. I drink from many cups and not just the coolaid fountain though. All is not what it seems.

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#1485668 - 16/01/2019 18:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: GringosRain


Its extremely hot and dry here for 4 years also. I'm experiencing what is happening just as much as anyone else. My farm is running out of water. I have my eyes wide open.


So what measures do you think we need to take in an effort to reduce the effects of drought since...I'm just going to say it...so many farmers out there still refuse to believe that climate change is actually a thing? Do we all just sit back, let the prolonged dry periods take over and not even try to do anything about it? Many of these farmers complain about how dry it is but don't seem to want to push for any solution.

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#1485670 - 16/01/2019 18:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2583
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
There is no solution while the majority urban people look for a scapegoat to make sure their extremely affluent lifestyle remains unchanged.

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#1485676 - 16/01/2019 19:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
Let he who has not been a beneficiary of decades of cheap fossil fuel cast the first stone.

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#1485678 - 16/01/2019 19:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
Can those with a better memory of the last warm Tasman blob explain what is causing it. Seems to be coupled with the high or is that my imagination?

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#1485679 - 16/01/2019 19:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Can those with a better memory of the last warm Tasman blob explain what is causing it. Seems to be coupled with the high or is that my imagination?


Definitely coupled with a continuous blocking high. Why, is anyone's guess.

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#1485680 - 16/01/2019 19:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 892
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Let’s just wait and see what happens. 🙃

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#1485682 - 16/01/2019 19:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5337
Loc: Not tellin!
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: GringosRain


Its extremely hot and dry here for 4 years also. I'm experiencing what is happening just as much as anyone else. My farm is running out of water. I have my eyes wide open.


So what measures do you think we need to take in an effort to reduce the effects of drought since...I'm just going to say it...so many farmers out there still refuse to believe that climate change is actually a thing? Do we all just sit back, let the prolonged dry periods take over and not even try to do anything about it? Many of these farmers complain about how dry it is but don't seem to want to push for any solution.
The most effective and attainable goal for farmers to do it to adopt regenerative farming techniques which build organic matter, reduce input costs and deliver more resilient soils and therefor better ability to handle extremes. Whether it be extreme dry,
Wet, hot or cold. This will work far better than any tax, solar panel or windmill

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#1485687 - 16/01/2019 19:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
Its certainly been driving my climate for the past month.

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#1485691 - 16/01/2019 20:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Mega- People need to have a deep understanding of the dark underbelly of global geopolitics before the forbidden topic can begin to be discussed in full context, and I think nearly everyone doesnt have a broad enough frame of reference in that department.
On that basis, we can never join the dots properly on climate drivers or anything else with the relatively (restricted) primitive tools we have at our disposal and the controlled mainstream narratives constantly fired at us.

This thread is informative and useful on some level, but of course can be frustratingly contained because of what cant be shared. There are obvious factions, but there shouldn’t be.

Its all an illusion, both sides are being played.

Divide and conquer...the world is run on it and the playbook works beautifully for all sorts of things and us dummies fall for it time and time again.

We the people arent the issue. The banks, corporations and fake (corporate) governments are. We need to wake the hell up quick smart and go all yellow vest, because all the solutions to fix our "problems" are available and have been for a long time. They could be deployed tomorrow.

Think MDB fish die-offs, think Adani mine. Are the people really in control here? No. So dont fall for the controlled msm narrative on anything. The corporate governments do what they want...because we arent their true masters. The Australian government are truly one of the worst too, the true bum lickers of the world. Have our land, have our water, have our mineral resources. What a joke.

The climate is changing, in fact many things are changing, but its not necessarily for the reasons the general populace believes.

The world is slowly waking up to these truths though. Aussies are lagging a bit more, but we can wake up and take action too. Its not action against someone for being an AGW believer or non believer or liberal or labour, or democrat or republican, or catholic or muslim. Mere titles used to distract and control. We all need to turn our attention to the puppet masters of the world who sit in shadows; and show them what a revolution really looks like. Not by sharing a meme on facebook, but by rolling the governments and central banks around the world like dominos.

We need a new system.
We need free energy released immediately.
We need true rule of law, not the law of the sea, the law of the land.
We need to demand our civil liberties remain in tact with a right to privacy and not let the totalitarian tiptoe based on false flag events to continue to fool us into cedeing our rights away through silence (silence is assent).
We need to have access to alternative medicines and maintain our rights over our bodies.
We need to maintain our sovereignty and not relinquish our rights to foreign entities, corporations and agreements such as the UN and the TPP.
We need real currency backed by gold, not this fake fiat [censored] we have now....I could go on with pages.
In short we need real foundations for a new system, not this façade of freedom that the sheeple continue to accept. Until people truly wake up, these crust deep debates are a yawn. The whole system is about control of the people. Nothing will change for the better while we are perceived as the enemy by our own governments and whilst we perceive our fellow man that way.
Control of the people requires control of the financial system and the current financial system requires "growth" and profit and growth and profit are pretty much mutually exclusive with true reparations of our environment. Not just carbon, but deforestation, plastic pollution, riparian systems, habitat destruction, ending fake wars, exposing (ending) geoengineering, species extinction...etc etc.

Its not that people and farmers dont want to take action, but they know something is not quite right about the mainstream narrative and they are right. There is more much more going on, we are being blamed for it, but intuitively people know somethings up. It doesnt mean we shouldnt be doing proactive things as communities, we should....just ask more questions, Go deeper and get more answers. The trick is that enough people need to go digging and join the dots at that deeper level. Then they might get truly angry and start to take real action to implement a proper new system. Not an easy road Im sure, but worth it.

I think it needs a revolution Mega, and it might be coming....

Love to the haters in advance. Back to my rock. May the ENSO discussions be blessed with clarity!! lol

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#1485695 - 16/01/2019 20:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
Originally Posted By: GringosRain

You have misquoted what I actually wrote


No I cut and pasted it.
And Btw volcanoes and earthquakes are not increasing.


Edited by Delta-T (16/01/2019 20:30)

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#1485699 - 16/01/2019 21:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Originally Posted By: GringosRain

You have misquoted what I actually wrote


No I cut and pasted it.
And Btw volcanoes and earthquakes are not increasing.


I did not say "lucky we went into that GSM" I said;

"lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse"

You cant cut a statement in half and say its the same thing.

As for earthquakes and volcanos, I read that mag 6.5+ earthquake were on the up in last couple years and the number of current active volcanos was at around 40 which was high. Off top of my head...reasoning is that as solar output decreases more cosmic rays hit the earths magnetosphere and are directed towards the poles exciting seismic activity. I dont have time to chase down the sources. So I will accept that I was incorrect and that it is not relevant.

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#1485718 - 17/01/2019 08:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Modoki influence is late but intense monsoon. Activity so far has been weak, but GFS 14 days is starting to pick up on strong activity at the end of its forecast.

With the MJO timed to the end of January, and modoki typically enhancing rain through Jan and Feb, but supressing it in Dec/March it might be the one big monsoon burst for the season.

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#1485768 - 17/01/2019 15:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
BoM have today issued a special climate statement about the widespread heatwaves in Dec 2018 and Jan 2019.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs68.pdf

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#1485792 - 17/01/2019 18:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
From link above:

• An unusual extended period of heatwaves over much of Australia began in early December 2018 and continued into January 2019
• For nationally averaged mean maximum temperature, Australia had its hottest December day on record and second-hottest for any month
• Numerous locations reported their highest daily maximum temperature on record for December or January, with some locations exceeding their previous records by large margins
• It was Australia's warmest December on record
• Every State and Territory was affected by heatwave conditions at some stage during the event
• These widespread heatwaves during December and early January followed an extreme heatwave that affected the tropical Queensland coast during late November 2018
• The current heat event is continuing and this Special Climate Statement will be updated at the end of January"

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#1485797 - 17/01/2019 18:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
mammatus meestrus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 80
Loc: lennox head
the dry signal and heat is profound now.

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#1485798 - 17/01/2019 19:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Has got extremely dry down here, with 7 weeks of the hottest part of summer to come, I hope the next MJO plays out like Mike suspects over the next 2 weeks.

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#1485836 - 18/01/2019 00:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I've just been looking through a few SST anomaly archives of previous years and one thing that stands out to me is how El/La-Nada we've been in since 2015. None since have really stuck. Last year and the year before were wannabe La-Ninas and this year is just a wannabe El-Nino. All of the signatures look very weak in comparison to real Nino/Nina years. Sort of makes you wonder when the next strong phase of Nina/Nino will actually be because maybe then the weather will get interesting again through drought stricken Australia.

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#1485867 - 18/01/2019 09:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
For me, it seems that it wont rain in Australia (monsoon areas aside), unless there is a definite La Nina, and probably more importantly, a strongly negative IOD.

Nice to see all models now predicting tropical storm systems to develop over the Nth Tropical Aus regions throughout next week.

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#1485885 - 18/01/2019 13:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
The far east has warmed somewhat recently, and the region near the dateline has cooled. Does this mean that the current event is moving away from Modoki status?

I've marked the two peak areas of warming.



Then look at the atmospheric response, with roughly the same areas marked (by eyeball).



It is clear that the western warm area is having a significant impact on the atmosphere, with large increases in convection near to this warm water. In contrast for the eastern warm spot there is little convective response. Perhaps a slight increase in convection, but somewhat west, and away from the equator. If this is a genuine atmospheric response to the far east warming it is dominated by the response further west.

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#1485891 - 18/01/2019 14:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
The far east has warmed somewhat recently, and the region near the dateline has cooled. Does this mean that the current event is moving away from Modoki status?

I've marked the two peak areas of warming.







All in the eye of the beholder Mike, you see the SST as above, I see it like it actually is:



...which shows Nino.4 warmer than Nino3.4 and the Pacific far cooler in the east. If I was a cloud trying to form over tropical (EQ) Pacific, ....I'd be looking to do it over the West side of Nino.4. Which is typical of neutral ESNO.

Not that I dont agree with you that most of Aus is in a bad drought, ....it's just why is the sticking point.

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#1485892 - 18/01/2019 14:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I'm still not convinced by it being a Modoki in the first place. Only source I can find that are calling it a Modoki is JAMSTEC and even then, they only say, "Modoki-like." The rest just seem to be calling it a weak-Nino but that's only on the US's scale. On ours, still warm-neutral.

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#1485893 - 18/01/2019 14:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Petros


...which shows Nino.4 warmer than Nino3.4 and the Pacific far cooler in the east. If I was a cloud trying to form over tropical (EQ) Pacific, ....I'd be looking to do it over the West side of Nino.4.


Which is what is happening.
Originally Posted By: Petros

Which is typical of neutral ESNO.


Typical of neutral ENSO is clouds having a preference to form over the Australian region, and not a couple thousand kilometers to the east. Clouds forming over nino 4 is typical of modoki.

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#1485925 - 18/01/2019 18:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Disagree, I think that the state of the Pacific, when viewed from SatIR shows a classic ENSO neutral state.

....meanwhile I was lucky enough to score 10mm from storms embedded in this NW'ly sourced moisture band today:



Not a drought fixer for SE Aus, but nice to see this type of atmospherics' this time of the year! ....bring on next week when the MJO is set to arrive smile

This is a classic "model shop" (just using latest model run on WZ) but GFS is seeing this in days to come:




Note that little large scale rain over Aus is evident in this run, ....but look at the "change in potential" coming up for parched Aus in coming days.


Edited by Petros (18/01/2019 18:56)

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#1485972 - 18/01/2019 22:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
How can someone put up a daily SST anomaly chart, then claim it to be something else using monthly averaged charts. Talk about cherries.... THE STONE FRUIT KING!

Mega is right, no one, literally no agency, has declared a Modoki - it is something just made up & keeps being repeating like that broken clock...

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#1485979 - 18/01/2019 22:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
I noticed Ken Kato doesn't support a modoki either. Or any form of ElNino for that matter. Also given Jamstec's original guidelines they may as well call it ElMockery or perhaps ElMuddy. The goal posts keep shifting to suit any lack of clear rationale.

.... and is the Tasman high the issue or the Indian Ocean high that also refuses to budge whilst dumping dry air over WA? There is no incentive for change if it isn't forcing systems east to move on. Those heatwaves are coming from WA (Indian ocean), not the pacific.

Warm neutral.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1485983 - 19/01/2019 00:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I noticed Ken Kato doesn't support a modoki either. Or any form of ElNino for that matter. Also given Jamstec's original guidelines they may as well call it ElMockery or perhaps ElMuddy. The goal posts keep shifting to suit any lack of clear rationale.

.... and is the Tasman high the issue or the Indian Ocean high that also refuses to budge whilst dumping dry air over WA? There is no incentive for change if it isn't forcing systems east to move on. Those heatwaves are coming from WA (Indian ocean), not the pacific.

Warm neutral.


Well that dry air wasn't there the last two or three wet seasons and the Tasman Sea high was still stuck in place.

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#1485984 - 19/01/2019 00:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 892
Loc: East Lake Macquarie

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#1485986 - 19/01/2019 01:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I noticed Ken Kato doesn't support a modoki either. Or any form of ElNino for that matter. Also given Jamstec's original guidelines they may as well call it ElMockery or perhaps ElMuddy. The goal posts keep shifting to suit any lack of clear rationale.

.... and is the Tasman high the issue or the Indian Ocean high that also refuses to budge whilst dumping dry air over WA? There is no incentive for change if it isn't forcing systems east to move on. Those heatwaves are coming from WA (Indian ocean), not the pacific.

Warm neutral.


Well that dry air wasn't there the last two or three wet seasons and the Tasman Sea high was still stuck in place.


I probably came off a bit blunt. I agree the Indian Ocean isn't helping but I don't think it's solely the reason that our highs are staying so far north for so long since it's happened in the past even with a warm Indian Ocean. Good news is GFS shows the subtropical ridge returning to more 'normal' latitudes in its extended run. Let's hope it sticks.

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#1485987 - 19/01/2019 01:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
SEAN888 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/09/2007
Posts: 1074
Loc: Mel
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Mega- People need to have a deep understanding of the dark underbelly of global geopolitics before the forbidden topic can begin to be discussed in full context, and I think nearly everyone doesnt have a broad enough frame of reference in that department.
On that basis, we can never join the dots properly on climate drivers or anything else with the relatively (restricted) primitive tools we have at our disposal and the controlled mainstream narratives constantly fired at us.

This thread is informative and useful on some level, but of course can be frustratingly contained because of what cant be shared. There are obvious factions, but there shouldn’t be.

Its all an illusion, both sides are being played.

Divide and conquer...the world is run on it and the playbook works beautifully for all sorts of things and us dummies fall for it time and time again.

We the people arent the issue. The banks, corporations and fake (corporate) governments are. We need to wake the hell up quick smart and go all yellow vest, because all the solutions to fix our "problems" are available and have been for a long time. They could be deployed tomorrow.

Think MDB fish die-offs, think Adani mine. Are the people really in control here? No. So dont fall for the controlled msm narrative on anything. The corporate governments do what they want...because we arent their true masters. The Australian government are truly one of the worst too, the true bum lickers of the world. Have our land, have our water, have our mineral resources. What a joke.

The climate is changing, in fact many things are changing, but its not necessarily for the reasons the general populace believes.

The world is slowly waking up to these truths though. Aussies are lagging a bit more, but we can wake up and take action too. Its not action against someone for being an AGW believer or non believer or liberal or labour, or democrat or republican, or catholic or muslim. Mere titles used to distract and control. We all need to turn our attention to the puppet masters of the world who sit in shadows; and show them what a revolution really looks like. Not by sharing a meme on facebook, but by rolling the governments and central banks around the world like dominos.

We need a new system.
We need free energy released immediately.
We need true rule of law, not the law of the sea, the law of the land.
We need to demand our civil liberties remain in tact with a right to privacy and not let the totalitarian tiptoe based on false flag events to continue to fool us into cedeing our rights away through silence (silence is assent).
We need to have access to alternative medicines and maintain our rights over our bodies.
We need to maintain our sovereignty and not relinquish our rights to foreign entities, corporations and agreements such as the UN and the TPP.
We need real currency backed by gold, not this fake fiat [censored] we have now....I could go on with pages.
In short we need real foundations for a new system, not this façade of freedom that the sheeple continue to accept. Until people truly wake up, these crust deep debates are a yawn. The whole system is about control of the people. Nothing will change for the better while we are perceived as the enemy by our own governments and whilst we perceive our fellow man that way.
Control of the people requires control of the financial system and the current financial system requires "growth" and profit and growth and profit are pretty much mutually exclusive with true reparations of our environment. Not just carbon, but deforestation, plastic pollution, riparian systems, habitat destruction, ending fake wars, exposing (ending) geoengineering, species extinction...etc etc.

Its not that people and farmers dont want to take action, but they know something is not quite right about the mainstream narrative and they are right. There is more much more going on, we are being blamed for it, but intuitively people know somethings up. It doesnt mean we shouldnt be doing proactive things as communities, we should....just ask more questions, Go deeper and get more answers. The trick is that enough people need to go digging and join the dots at that deeper level. Then they might get truly angry and start to take real action to implement a proper new system. Not an easy road Im sure, but worth it.

I think it needs a revolution Mega, and it might be coming....

Love to the haters in advance. Back to my rock. May the ENSO discussions be blessed with clarity!! lol


What a bunch of psychobabble.

The 'narrative' is simple: adding billions and billions of tonnes of Co2 into the atmosphere isn't inert. It increases thermal gain. There is no global conspiracy other than to assert climate change is a falsehood.

People in this thread can tout their charts and conspiracy talk all they want, but the world is getting warmer. The stats prove it beyond a doubt, from rising sea levels to retreating glaciers, to the fact above average years are clustering (trends, NOT anomalies).

Freezing cold periods in the US mean nothing when the reason behind such snaps are a break down in the polar vortex caused by above average temperatures in the arctic.

For a bunch of weather nerds, there's a very poor understanding of atmospherics in this thread. I mean, do you people even know how the atmosphere works? Why Earth's global average is 15c instead of -15c?

Sun spots, auras, xrays, volcanoes... the bs people will stoop to in order to evade any form of accountability or responsibility.

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#1485992 - 19/01/2019 07:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
What part of BANNED do you not understand? Seriously? And your first line is why it is banned.

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#1485993 - 19/01/2019 07:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
TAO has updated, despite the government shutdown. Do we owe thanks to some long suffering govt employee/scientist going in to reset the server switch or whatever despite going without pay?

Surface confirms that the recent WWB was quite significant.



It also shows a typical modoki pattern for the new year with steady cooling in the east and warmth maintained near the dateline. Westerly anomalies prevail to the west of the dateline warm pool, and easterly anomalies prevail to the east of the dateline warm pool, despite models showing substantial westerly anomalies further east. Classic modoki atmospheric response. Compare to 2002/2003



Subsurface confirms a substantial warm kelvin wave has been generated by the recent WWB.


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#1486000 - 19/01/2019 08:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
There’s no doubt whatsoever that an index is really handy in terms of removing subjectivity but as mentioned in my previous post, it’s also vital to consider the context of the bigger picture it’s used in.
For example, CAPE is handy for estimating instability but as we all know, there’s also many instances where something like high surface-based CAPE values don’t reflect the true instability of the atmosphere due to the assumption that all parcels are rising from the surface and a big cap is preventing storms from forming, high positive SOI values that may only be high because of local weather systems rather than a true La Niña phase that would otherwise produce rainy cool weather, or very warm NIÑO 3 and 3.4 SST anomalies that don’t reflect a full blown El Niño because the atmosphere isn’t coupling with the ocean.

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#1486004 - 19/01/2019 08:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
And my response to Ken

Quote:
As far as I can tell the big picture is that SSTs resemble modoki el nino, rainfall patterns in Australia resemble modoki el nino, and atmospheric impacts on cloudiness and trade winds resemble el nino modoki (perhaps weaker than a typical full blown el nino, but definitely still there).

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#1486005 - 19/01/2019 08:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
There’s no doubt whatsoever that an index is really handy in terms of removing subjectivity but as mentioned in my previous post, it’s also vital to consider the context of the bigger picture it’s used in.
For example, CAPE is handy for estimating instability but as we all know, there’s also many instances where something like high surface-based CAPE values don’t reflect the true instability of the atmosphere due to the assumption that all parcels are rising from the surface and a big cap is preventing storms from forming, high positive SOI values that may only be high because of local weather systems rather than a true La Niña phase that would otherwise produce rainy cool weather, or very warm NIÑO 3 and 3.4 SST anomalies that don’t reflect a full blown El Niño because the atmosphere isn’t coupling with the ocean.


...and he's right.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1486019 - 19/01/2019 10:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
And my response to Ken

Quote:
As far as I can tell the big picture is that SSTs resemble modoki el nino, rainfall patterns in Australia resemble modoki el nino, and atmospheric impacts on cloudiness and trade winds resemble el nino modoki (perhaps weaker than a typical full blown el nino, but definitely still there).


Which of course he said is not true, supported by the BoM and every single other credible agency.

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#1486039 - 19/01/2019 14:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Can you find one quote from any agency stating this is not an el nino modoki? Evidently Jamstec has said it is Modoki like, although I haven't confirmed that. So one agency in favour, and none against?

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#1486041 - 19/01/2019 14:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5233
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Can you find one quote from any agency stating this is not an el nino modoki? Evidently Jamstec has said it is Modoki like, although I haven't confirmed that. So one agency in favour, and none against?

This is the same as saying "Please find one quote from an agency stating that there is no la nina right now" - just because you can't find an agency stating something is not happening does not mean that it automatically is.
FWIW the latest WWB seems to have had some impact and models are now responding to it - though one WWB does make an el nino or anything similar...what I've really learnt this year is that (1) we have little clue (2) the environment does what it wants regardless (3) and regardless of whatever pattern we are in, we can get a whole heap of heat and dry across much of Aus (4) the quidge is designed to test our ability to stay sane / passionate about the weather regardless of what nature throws at us...

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#1486043 - 19/01/2019 14:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RandomGuy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2012
Posts: 83
Loc: Melbourne (Northern Suburbs)
Just to list a few

1) BOM - ENSO Neutral (next update in a few days)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

2) CPC - ENSO Neutral (updated 14 Jan)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a...s-fcsts-web.pdf

3) IRI - ENSO Neutral (updated Jan 10)
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

4) ASMC - ENSO Neutral (updated last in DEC)
http://asmc.asean.org/asmc-el-nino/

As far as I can tell the only person (not agency) pushing an El Nino of any sort is Mike Hauber.

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#1486045 - 19/01/2019 15:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: KevD]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: KevD
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Can you find one quote from any agency stating this is not an el nino modoki? Evidently Jamstec has said it is Modoki like, although I haven't confirmed that. So one agency in favour, and none against?

This is the same as saying "Please find one quote from an agency stating that there is no la nina right now" - just because you can't find an agency stating something is not happening does not mean that it automatically is.
FWIW the latest WWB seems to have had some impact and models are now responding to it - though one WWB does make an el nino or anything similar...what I've really learnt this year is that (1) we have little clue (2) the environment does what it wants regardless (3) and regardless of whatever pattern we are in, we can get a whole heap of heat and dry across much of Aus (4) the quidge is designed to test our ability to stay sane / passionate about the weather regardless of what nature throws at us...


👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

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#1486046 - 19/01/2019 15:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RandomGuy]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: RandomGuy
Just to list a few

1) BOM - ENSO Neutral (next update in a few days)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

2) CPC - ENSO Neutral (updated 14 Jan)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a...s-fcsts-web.pdf

3) IRI - ENSO Neutral (updated Jan 10)
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

4) ASMC - ENSO Neutral (updated last in DEC)
http://asmc.asean.org/asmc-el-nino/

As far as I can tell the only person (not agency) pushing an El Nino of any sort is Mike Hauber.


🌟🌟🌟

Seems a pretty strong list... bye bye El Nada Modinone


Edited by Kino (19/01/2019 15:16)

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#1486050 - 19/01/2019 15:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: KevD
This is the same as saying "Please find one quote from an agency stating that there is no la nina right now" -


Yes, it is ridiculous .
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1486054 - 19/01/2019 17:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html

Usually @ the forefront with enso pacific analysis

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#1486056 - 19/01/2019 17:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Talk about a conflicted outlook, every indicator says average except normal except some SST’s and yet they run with an El Niño?

Quote:
In December 2018, the NINO.3 SST was above normal with a deviation of +1.0°C. The 5-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation for October was +0.7°C (Table and Fig.3). SSTs in December were above normal in most of the equatorial Pacific (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface temperatures were also above normal in most of the equatorial Pacific (Fig.5 and Fig.7). Atmospheric convective activity near the date line over the equatorial Pacific and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were near normal (Fig.8, Fig.9). The trade winds over the western equatorial Pacific, however, were below normal in the second half of December (Fig.10). Taking into consideration the factors mentioned above, El Niño conditions are considered to have persisted in the equatorial Pacific.

The subsurface warm waters maintained warmer-than-normal SST conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific in December, and such condition is expected to continue. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3 SST will be above normal from boreal winter to spring (Fig.11). In conclusion, El Niño conditions are likely (80%) to continue until boreal spring (Fig.1 and Fig.2).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was below normal in December (Fig.3). The value is likely to be below normal or near normal from boreal winter to spring (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was near normal in December (Fig.3). The value is likely to be above normal or near normal from boreal winter to spring (Fig.13).

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#1486062 - 19/01/2019 18:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
In other words no agencies say it is not modoki. Unless you are someone who doesn't know that el ninos and modoki are different.

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#1486063 - 19/01/2019 19:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Surely you can’t be serious 😵😵😵

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#1486068 - 19/01/2019 19:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
In other words no agencies say it is not modoki. Unless you are someone who doesn't know that el ninos and modoki are different.


If it was a Modoki, wouldn't at least one of those agencies say it is? Why wouldn't they?

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#1486069 - 19/01/2019 20:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
BOM criteria for el nino are based on nino 3 and nino 3.4 indexes. Modoki is defined as the Principal Component 2 in an Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis, or PC2. This is a math thing and basically represents the standard SST pattern of a perfect modoki event. The correlation between PC2 and nino 3 is -0.09, and between PC2 and nino 3.4 is 0.19.

BOM criteria for an el nino are clearly not designed to take reflect modoki el nino, so when BOM say 'not el nino' this has nothing to do with whether modoki el nino exists or not.

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#1486072 - 19/01/2019 20:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Mega


If it was a Modoki, wouldn't at least one of those agencies say it is? Why wouldn't they?


I'd expect so too.

But the index, reflecting SST conditions only, clearly says Modoki, and the agencies aren't saying anything clearly against. Maybe they've considered the possibility and rejected it for some atmospheric reason, but as far as I can tell atmospheric patterns are very similar to what is expected in Modoki. Perhaps the atmospheric indicators are below some threshold, which would make the current situation a warm neutral modoki. But I haven't found any such threshold anywhere, so unless something clear emerges somewhere it seems the only reasonable conclusion is to judge the event as a full el nino modoki.

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#1486073 - 19/01/2019 20:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike
But I haven't found any such threshold anywhere, so unless something clear emerges somewhere it seems the only reasonable conclusion is to judge the event as a full el nino modoki.


So, the abscence of the something, logic usually dictates that it doesn’t exist, hence why it isn’t mentioned or referred too. But in your view, the abscence of something means it does exist? That’s simply ridiculous. Not only are you now making up an ENSO condition but you’re rewriting basic logic.

No Mike, the abscence of something doesn’t not mean that it exists.

The reason NO agency mentions it is because it doesn’t exist. Pretty simple and pretty clear.


Edited by Kino (19/01/2019 20:21)

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#1486077 - 19/01/2019 21:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
You are missing one very important part of my logic.

The modoki index clearly shows a modoki exists

The absence I refer to is simply the absence of any evidence to the contrary.

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#1486078 - 19/01/2019 21:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
The index that no agency uses in its assessment of ENSO? That one? Yeah. Not missing anything. Every agency have advised that there is no coupling. That’s what you need, not some index.

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#1486082 - 19/01/2019 21:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Jamstec is an agency and I'm sure they use the index they publish when assessing whether a modoki or not exists.

I am aware of two agencies that have described no coupling - BOM and NCEP. Are you aware of any others that have made this claim? Both of them use nino 3.4 and/or nino 3 to assess ENSO, therefore they are not assessing modoki.

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#1486088 - 19/01/2019 22:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Google News with a search for Modoki reveals what various meteologists have said about modoki state recently

Quote:
The reason may be that the Modoki El Nino is barely a Modoki and the El Nino in general has been not far from neutral and is showing signs of weakening.

Regardless of the Modoki Index, there is basin-wide anomalous warmth in most of the Pacific Ocean.

link - counted as yes

Quote:
This, in a low-solar, El Nino Modoki winter

link counted as yes

Quote:
Kirtek added that this year’s winter weather will be dominated by a Modoki El Niño.

link not counted, not clear whether modoki is currently in place or is not in place but will form by winter

Quote:
Winter wild card? El Niño “Modoki”event possible

link not counted, dated Oct 19 2018

Quote:
Winter forecast updates take chilly, stormy turns as a ‘Modoki El Niño’ comes into play

link counted as yes.

Quote:
giving us what’s called a Modoki El Niño.

Halpert says that did not happen this year, but there has been an unusual warming across the entire El Niño sector from west to east.

link counted as no

Interestingly enough this and the last statement are both from climate forecasters at the climate prediction center from NOAA and are associated with the US winter outlook.

Quote:
This this winter to spring will feature El Nino Modoki, which is similar but different than a typical El Nino.

link From August, not counted

Quote:
In this case, the warming might be more in the central Pacific, south of Hawaii, rather than in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Known as Modoki El Niños


link Counted as maybe no (We are not in el nino yet, but we may get an el nino and when it arrives it might be modoki, implying not full modoki, but closer to modoki than classical.

Quote:
The Litoral region of the country is being affected by the phenomenon of "El Niño Modoki"

google translated
link counted as yes

Quote:
It is only weak El Nino Modoki

link counted as yes


Five forecasters believe we are currently experiencing modoki conditions. One definitely doesn't, and another one that does not because we are not yet in el nino, but if el nino does arrive it will probably be modoki.

There is a possible selection bias where forecasters who believe we are in modoki may be more likely to mention that we are in modoki than those who don't.

Still the true picture is clearly quite different from the claim that all agencies are claiming we are not in modoki.

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#1486090 - 19/01/2019 22:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Again you mislead. They’re not forecasters at all. They’re scientists with an opinion.

These are the official forecasters, in case you missed:

Quote:
Just to list a few

1) BOM - ENSO Neutral (next update in a few days)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

2) CPC - ENSO Neutral (updated 14 Jan)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a...s-fcsts-web.pdf

3) IRI - ENSO Neutral (updated Jan 10)
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

4) ASMC - ENSO Neutral (updated last in DEC)
http://asmc.asean.org/asmc-el-nino/

As far as I can tell the only person (not agency) pushing an El Nino of any sort is Mike Hauber.


CASE. CLOSED. 0/2. Next!

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#1486097 - 20/01/2019 02:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2268
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Google News with a search for Modoki reveals what various meteologists have said about modoki state recently

Quote:
The reason may be that the Modoki El Nino is barely a Modoki and the El Nino in general has been not far from neutral and is showing signs of weakening.

Regardless of the Modoki Index, there is basin-wide anomalous warmth in most of the Pacific Ocean.

link - counted as yes

Quote:
This, in a low-solar, El Nino Modoki winter

link counted as yes

Quote:
Kirtek added that this year’s winter weather will be dominated by a Modoki El Niño.

link not counted, not clear whether modoki is currently in place or is not in place but will form by winter

Quote:
Winter wild card? El Niño “Modoki”event possible

link not counted, dated Oct 19 2018

Quote:
Winter forecast updates take chilly, stormy turns as a ‘Modoki El Niño’ comes into play

link counted as yes.

Quote:
giving us what’s called a Modoki El Niño.

Halpert says that did not happen this year, but there has been an unusual warming across the entire El Niño sector from west to east.

link counted as no

Interestingly enough this and the last statement are both from climate forecasters at the climate prediction center from NOAA and are associated with the US winter outlook.

Quote:
This this winter to spring will feature El Nino Modoki, which is similar but different than a typical El Nino.

link From August, not counted

Quote:
In this case, the warming might be more in the central Pacific, south of Hawaii, rather than in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Known as Modoki El Niños


link Counted as maybe no (We are not in el nino yet, but we may get an el nino and when it arrives it might be modoki, implying not full modoki, but closer to modoki than classical.

Quote:
The Litoral region of the country is being affected by the phenomenon of "El Niño Modoki"

google translated
link counted as yes

Quote:
It is only weak El Nino Modoki

link counted as yes


Five forecasters believe we are currently experiencing modoki conditions. One definitely doesn't, and another one that does not because we are not yet in el nino, but if el nino does arrive it will probably be modoki.

There is a possible selection bias where forecasters who believe we are in modoki may be more likely to mention that we are in modoki than those who don't.

Still the true picture is clearly quite different from the claim that all agencies are claiming we are not in modoki.




Geeze Mike you really are stretching things with all this and grasping at any and every thing you can to prove a point that really doesn't exist on a scientific level at all.
Opinions ain't science nor reality.

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#1486099 - 20/01/2019 07:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Again you mislead. They’re not forecasters at all. They’re scientists with an opinion.


You accuse me of misleading when you invent a claim as preposterous of this out of thin air?

For the forecasters who said it was modoki:

Quote:
Mellish is THE ONLY meteorologist in Atlanta to be certified by BOTH the AMS and the NWA, National Weather Association. Kirk has more than 30 years of experience in weather forecasting and has won dozens of awards for forecast accuracy and broadcasting excellence.

link

Quote:

With 14 years of on-air forecasting experience, Chad Evans returns as WLFI's chief meteorologist after working in the role early 2009 to mid-2015.

link


Quote:
Tony Wood has been writing about weather and the atmosphere for The Inquirer for 26 years.


Likely journalists, but he quotes:

Quote:
"We don't use that term a whole lot," Stephen Baxter, a researcher and seasonal forecaster at the government's Climate Prediction Center, said of Modoki, "but they're not rare."


Not just a weather forecaster, but a climate forecaster

Quote:
Mauricio Saldívar began working in 1986 as broadcast meteorologist in radio, Tv and newspapers after his studies in meteorology at Universidad de Buenos Aires.

He worked at Argentinean National Weather Service for 20 years (1986 to 2005).

He specialized and was in charge of teams in Aeronautical Meteorology, Antarctic Meteorology, Remote Sensing (Radar and Satellite) and Public Weather Services.


link

Fifth yes is from Chad Evens, same source as first yes, so four forecasters not 5.

Quote:

These are the official forecasters, in case you missed:

Just to list a few

1) BOM - ENSO Neutral (next update in a few days)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

2) CPC - ENSO Neutral (updated 14 Jan)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a...s-fcsts-web.pdf

3) IRI - ENSO Neutral (updated Jan 10)
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

4) ASMC - ENSO Neutral (updated last in DEC)
http://asmc.asean.org/asmc-el-nino/

As far as I can tell the only person (not agency) pushing an El Nino of any sort is Mike Hauber.


CASE. CLOSED. 0/2. Next! [/quote]

All these agencies use nino 3 or nino 3.4 to assess ENSO. The correlation of modoki and nino 3.4 is only 0.19, and nino 3 is 0.09. Therefore none of these agencies are assessing modoki. One of the forecasters who stated that we are in a modoki episode works for one of these agencies (although so does one of the forecasters who said we are not in modoki).

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#1486101 - 20/01/2019 10:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Silly me, I should have been more careful - I meant (clearly) FORECASTING AGENCIES.

Again, everything you posted are opinions of scientists. Not Forecasting Agencies who have sunk the Modoki boat quicker than Clive Palmers political career.

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#1486103 - 20/01/2019 10:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229

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#1486107 - 20/01/2019 12:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Mike, I'd be happy to label the prevailing conditions that caused this present drought event a "Hauber Nino" - all you need to do is create the metrics around this newly identified phenomena.

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#1486116 - 20/01/2019 15:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: vorts]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: vorts


Whats the source of that modoki data?

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#1486117 - 20/01/2019 15:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Silly me, I should have been more careful - I meant (clearly) FORECASTING AGENCIES.

Again, everything you posted are opinions of scientists. Not Forecasting Agencies who have sunk the Modoki boat quicker than Clive Palmers political career.


They are not scientists, they are weather forecasters. Some of whom work for forecasting agencies. And if they were scientists I'd way their opinion even higher.

The agencies you have quoted consider nino indexes with a poor correlation with modoki when assessing ENSO. They are not assessing modoki.

The only agency that specifically assesses modoki that I know of it linkJamstec, and they state clearly that modoki is happening (and that canonical is also happening).

Quote:
As predicted earlier, El Niño/El Niño Modoki-like state has actually emerged in October. This El Niño looks a mixture of Modoki-type and canonical-type and its impact may be different from that of the canonical El Niño.

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#1486119 - 20/01/2019 15:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Arguments for Modoki:

Rainfall in Australia was dry during December in the regions that are normally dry during modoki, and wet in the regions that are normally dry during canonical. Judging by month to date and current forecasts there is a high chance that rainfall will switch to above average for the Modoki impacted region, just as expected in a modoki.

Trade winds to the west of the dateline warm pool have shown consistent westerly anomalies while trade winds to the east of the dateline warm pool have shown consistent easterly anomalies, as expected in Modoki. In a classic el nino westerly anomalies usually extend to the east of the dateline.

Cloudiness anomalies have been just a bit to the west of the dateline and have not penetrated further east. In a classic el nino cloudiness anomalies will spread further east.

The modoki index published by Jamstec has been clearly above modoki threshold for several months, and Jamstec have stated that a modoki exists, although mixed with a canonical influence.

Arguments against.

Some agencies which assess ENSO conditions using indexes suited to canonical but not modoki el nino have declared no el nino exists.

Waters are warmer than average in the far east. Even though waters have been warmer than average in the majority of past modoki events.

Ken Kato (BOM forecaster) doesn't think we have modoki.

Lots of members of this thread don't think we have modoki.

SOI is in neutral range. I can't see how this favors canonical over modoki, but might imply that the current situation should be labelled 'modoki warm neutral'

There is no coupling. Stated by multiple agencies. Not sure why lack of coupling would make this more likely a canonical type event rather than a modoki. Might be an argument for 'modoki warm neutral'.

Did I miss anything?



Edited by Mike Hauber (20/01/2019 15:53)

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#1486120 - 20/01/2019 15:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
I see Mike Hauber submitting post after post full of interesting and yes, sometimes even contraversial information and opinions. I also see one or two others who, post after post, almost exclusively attack everything he posts.

My question then is: Kino (apart from being a proxy climate change tiff) why are Mike's posts sooo important to you?

If you say they aren't important, then how about ignoring him and posting something interesting yourself instead of this serial griping.

If they are important to you why have you designated yourself Mike's personal scrutinizer? Nothing better to do?

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#1486123 - 20/01/2019 16:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
Yeah because Mike should be able to post up what is simply opinion and go unchecked when it flies in the face of convention.

Why are Kino's posts so important to you? Nothing better to do?
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1486128 - 20/01/2019 17:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
Um no. "flies in the face of convention" is not even close to being accurate.
Mike's opinions about Modoki, while not held universally, seem to be held quite widely. They (Mike's opinions about Modoki) don't even seem that contraversial to me. Maybe Petros is right in that this particular species of ENSO should be called a Hauber Nino - a sub-species of Modoki.

Speaking of which,

The Japanese to English translations and meanings for modoki (もどき) include '-like,pseudo-,mock ...,imitation ...,in the style of ...'.

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#1486130 - 20/01/2019 17:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
Yeah I am well aware of the meaning. You're not the only one with access to Google. The parameters of Modoki have been hijacked and not only by Mike and indeed by jamstec when you read their own definition. When it was originally recognised there was a criteria for cooler than average ocean temps either side of the warm pool in the central pacific. Now it seems a 0.2-0.3 degs difference ( even when all areas are above average ) will suffice. Particularly if it is to save face. ElNonsense.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#1486132 - 20/01/2019 17:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
Thats fine and I respect your opinion, but the knee-jerk sneering is tiresome and unnecessary.

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#1486133 - 20/01/2019 17:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
But that goes both ways mate. You only see one side though for some reason.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#1486134 - 20/01/2019 17:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
I don't see Mike sneering.

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#1486140 - 20/01/2019 18:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Tropical Aus is setting up for an interesting period going by 1) MJO models 2) current forecast models, as next week progresses.

Forecast models disagree on tropical storm locations, but on balance, they all forecast bucketloads of (some moot multiple) tropical storm system possibilities.

Maybe this will be the anchor point for the "proper" commencement of the Aus tropical wet season?

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#1486142 - 20/01/2019 18:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Petros
Tropical Aus is setting up for an interesting period going by 1) MJO models 2) current forecast models, as next week progresses.

Forecast models disagree on tropical storm locations, but on balance, they all forecast bucketloads of (some moot multiple) tropical storm system possibilities.

Maybe this will be the anchor point for the "proper" commencement of the Aus tropical wet season?



Interesting tussle re Tropical Low either side of the Cape also. EC and CMC wanting a CS trip and GFS in the GoC.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#1486143 - 20/01/2019 18:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Petros
Mike, I'd be happy to label the prevailing conditions that caused this present drought event a "Hauber Nino" - all you need to do is create the metrics around this newly identified phenomena.



So do I write you out of the "Hauber Nino" credit roll and put this drought down to a "Canonical el nino" (parameters yet to be published)?

There is so many el nino-like weather patterns out there, ....it's a miracle that a drop of rain can ever make ground in Aus wink .

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#1486146 - 20/01/2019 18:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I'm really clutching but extended GFS and the very last day of EC's run are showing signs of a much healthier ridge setting up as the Tasman Sea high finally retreats to more 'normal' latitudes for summer. It's a long shot but worth watching since both EC and GFS are hinting at it. If it was just one model then I wouldn't have bothered mentioning it. Regardless, it doesn't look like happening before the month is out so I'd imagine that January '19 will go down as one of the driest January's on record for a big swab of QLD and northern NSW.

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#1486149 - 20/01/2019 18:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Januaries

edit time strikes again.

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#1486154 - 20/01/2019 19:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
Bundaberg has had 3.2mm for January to date. Driest on record (according to WZ) was 1.2mm in 2003 so yeah, it's pretty dry. January is also Bundy's wettest month with an average around 170mm . As ElNino loses it's grip in Summer it is obvious something much bigger is at play. Particularly as ElNino didn't emerge anyway in 2018.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#1486157 - 20/01/2019 20:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim


Decent sized short term rise in daily nino 3.4. Nino 3.4 is probably dropping and its probably just the daily being erratic yet again.


Edited by Mike Hauber (20/01/2019 20:11)

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#1486159 - 20/01/2019 20:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
LonnyDave Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 08/05/2018
Posts: 46
Just a few bits and pieces from Tassie. Hobart has set the record for most consecutive days of maxima above 20 degrees (28 days and ongoing). Launceston max temps for the next five days are 33, 33, 27, 28, 32. Jan average in Launceston is 24.5 this January so far its 27.0 and we will smash the record of 26.9 for sure. Tomorrow we will have our fifth day over 30 in Launceston for 2019 meaning we have hit the annual average already. Devonport went within a degree of its all time temperature record today with a temp of 32.2. Devonport could get three consecutive days over 30. It averages 1 30 degree every five years! Oh yeah in Launceston we have had only 3.4 mm and Hobart 0.2mm. As I look out the window there is smoke haze from the 50 fires started by hundreds of dry lightning strikes a week ago. Its nearly 30 degrees at sundown. Boy oh boy something is going on.


Edited by LonnyDave (20/01/2019 20:29)

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#1486161 - 20/01/2019 20:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: LonnyDave]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: LonnyDave
Boy oh boy something is going on.


The fact that you guys are surrounded by such warm anomalies is helping those warmer air temps no doubt.

_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#1486164 - 20/01/2019 20:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
The warm blob is no doubt a factor but your hand drawn circle doesn't quite make it to Port Augusta let alone Marble Bar, I wonder whats going on up there? Rhetorical question.

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#1486166 - 20/01/2019 21:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
The warm blob is no doubt a factor but your hand drawn circle doesn't quite make it to Port Augusta let alone Marble Bar, I wonder whats going on up there? Rhetorical question.


Seems your more then adequate at your own sneering. Given both locations reside on the periphery of a massive desert, maybe that’s where the heat comes from? Just a guess. 🙄

No monsoon as yet, heat builds and has no way of escape, gets dragged down by passing long wave troughs. The monsoon arrives and there’s a massive heat transference, cooling down the interior.

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#1486167 - 20/01/2019 21:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
LonnyDave whats going on is this and a continuation into January.



You can guess February March and April are going to look similar too. I remember a puddle in my back lane in Mowbray still being frozen at 3pm one afternoon. Ah the good ol' days.



Edited by Delta-T (20/01/2019 21:29)

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#1486168 - 20/01/2019 21:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
The warm blob is no doubt a factor but your hand drawn circle doesn't quite make it to Port Augusta let alone Marble Bar, I wonder whats going on up there? Rhetorical question.


That was discussed a few pages back. Maybe you were too busy sneering to notice the two are actually connected. Despite the fact that Marble Bar is on a much bigger island the temperatures in both locations are tempered the same way.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#1486174 - 20/01/2019 22:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
Are you referrng to the discussion between myself and Mega?

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#1486176 - 20/01/2019 23:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.


Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Are you referrng to the discussion between myself and Mega?


No.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Top
#1486178 - 20/01/2019 23:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
Yeah, you are. But thats ok if you insist on denying it. wink

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#1486215 - 21/01/2019 10:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This morning we have:

* Pacific EQ trades fully established across all Nino zones (including the Kelvin Wave zone above N.G.)
* Pacific Nino.4 SSL now showing a high anomaly
* Sky clear across the Pacific Nino zones
* MJO now arrived/active above NW Aus (and set to strengthen over next 4-5 days)
* Indian Ocean IOD now back to neutral (with plenty of 30C water off the Pilbara)
* GOC simmering at 31-32C
* Pacific Ocean remaining ENSO neutral (water temps back-loaded to the West/Nino.4 region)

Conclusion: ....if you love cyclones in the Aus region, go to the front row!

Also noticed that the warming trend out over in Nino1.2 evident over past fortnight, should quickly subside as the trades pull up more Humbloldt currents, and the sub surface water over there has cooled markedly when you compare todays sub surface temp with what it was before the USA Govt shutdown. Maybe we are headed for a trend towards Nina-like conditions in the near term?

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#1486230 - 21/01/2019 13:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim


Some notes on current sst.

A) Ningaloo Nina has weakened a lot in the last few weeks. The Ningaloo Nina causes similar circulation and rainfall anomalies as modoki.

B) Some cool water in this region, but also some warm water. Should all be cool for an ideal el nino, modoki or otherwise. Warmer water to the east allows convection to move out into the Pacific in an el nino like atmospheric state, but lack of cool waters in this region gives more opportunities for MJO/Rossby activity to push tropical convection into the Australian region, although cloudiness anomalies suggest that overall convection north of Australia is still suppressed.

C) Warm water here typical of modoki el nino. Warm pool is slightly displaced to the west of a dateline, whereas a perfect modoki would be slightly displaced to the east of the dateline. This region is critical to ENSO dynamics with WWBs rarely making it much further east than the dateline, and convection anomalies during most el ninos being strongest in this region. A very strong east based el nino such as 97/98 is required to get much atmospheric response further east than the dateline. Also note the strong pool of warm water to the south supporting strong cyclone activity in SH in this region boosting the WWB potential.

D) Waters now close to normal temps mostly here now. Can't have a canonical el nino with water this cool in this region. Waters north and south are cool, supporting enhanced high pressure that can boost trades and support La Nina transition. Is it far enough west though? Enhanced trades from this region will have limited impact further west, and will have to fight WWB activity generated from further west. Waters north had been very warm most of the year and have cooled a lot, whereas waters south were cooler earlier in the year and have generally been slowly warming.

E) More warm water again. I don't think this area has any significant influence on atmospheric patterns with convection anomalies rarely reaching this far east, and trade winds in this region mostly weak and opposite to trade wind anomalies further west. Modoki would imply cooler waters in this region, tending to -ve anomalies mid year, and getting closer to dateline temps, but not as warm near peak. Symptom rather than driver. See if it persists and/or if atmospheric changes can be pinned to this warmer water.

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#1486237 - 21/01/2019 14:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
[img]https://m.imgur.com/wznZQMC?r[/img]

Not IOD cause of A

Not La Niña cause of C

Not El Niño cause of D

Not Modoki cause of E

Net result warm neutral.

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#1486241 - 21/01/2019 15:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
E is anti-modoki, but C is pro-modoki. E has only been there a very short time, and has not impacted the atmosphere that I can tell. Previous episodes of modoki, 2004, 2002 and 2009 all featured brief periods with similar to E.

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#1486243 - 21/01/2019 16:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus


Updated - pretty clear that neutral warm persists.

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#1486244 - 21/01/2019 16:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus


Edited by Kino (21/01/2019 16:12)

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#1486265 - 21/01/2019 19:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Will the current WWB have an impact? Plenty of WWBs during neutral and la nina conditions during January have been followed closely by warming. However frequently WWBs around January during el ninos are not and seem only to temporarily hold up the cooling trend.

Here is an example from 2010



And in 2014 the January WWB was able to keep the western warmth going, but couldn't get the east half out of almost dead neutral temps. March WWB that seemed to get basin wide warming going again.


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#1486272 - 21/01/2019 19:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
mammatus meestrus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 80
Loc: lennox head
thats the absolute worst SST anom chart for east coast Aus rainfall I've ever seen.

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#1486292 - 22/01/2019 05:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2268
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
I don't see Mike sneering.


Maybe Mike need's to go open his own thread about it all then?

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#1486298 - 22/01/2019 09:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 229

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#1486300 - 22/01/2019 09:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: mammatus meestrus]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: mammatus meestrus
thats the absolute worst SST anom chart for east coast Aus rainfall I've ever seen.


MM - why is that?

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#1486321 - 22/01/2019 15:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2583
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Bom lower the Enso status to El Nino watch.

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#1486325 - 22/01/2019 16:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
mammatus meestrus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 80
Loc: lennox head
Wam anomalies in Tasman sea = weak high pressure. Warm air rising fills in high pressure.

weak high pressure = weak pressure gradients esp with cool anoms in north-east CS and near South Pacific.

Thats a double whammy. No moisture transport onshore from South Pac or CS anywhere south of Tropic of Capricorn.

With weak high pressure we get mostly NE winds, not the cooling SE winds associated with normal summer Tradewind patterns.

That means a: interior heat can migrate into coastal areas E of the divide, hotter temps, greater evaporation.
b: Greater chance of Ekman transport giving cold upwellings and feedback loops that deter moisture flows into the coast, effectively recreating desert coast moisture deficits.

That SST anom chart, to me, looks like more of the same for this summer: heatwaves with continuing severe moisture deficits.

We will need a major system to break it down. Hopefully not an other ex-Debbie flood.


Edited by mammatus meestrus (22/01/2019 16:50)

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#1486331 - 22/01/2019 17:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim


According to BOM:

Quote:
The lack of an El Niño-like wind pattern indicates the atmospheric circulation required for El Niño has been missing this summer



Now look at the trade winds in 2006.


According to BOM:

Quote:
There has been a further strengthening of the El Niño during November: Pacific Ocean temperatures have continued
to warm along the equator, the Trade Winds remain weaker than average and cloudiness is above normal in the
western to central Pacific. The 2006/07 El Niño now looks to be entering the maturing phase, which is characterised
by self-sustaining feedback between the Pacific ocean temperatures, winds and cloud patterns.


And on 11 October 2006

Quote:
A strong westerly wind burst has emerged in the western Pacific in the past fortnight.


Both years peaked with westerly wind anomalies in the 3-4 m/s range, with 2006 at the top end and this year low end of that range, but the 2006 peak WWB gets described as 'strong', and this year's westerly winds totally ignored.


Edited by Mike Hauber (22/01/2019 17:36)

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#1486340 - 22/01/2019 18:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Maybe they changed the criteria over the years. Only way to find out is to ask them really.

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#1486342 - 22/01/2019 19:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: mammatus meestrus]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: mammatus meestrus
Wam anomalies in Tasman sea = weak high pressure. Warm air rising fills in high pressure.

weak high pressure = weak pressure gradients esp with cool anoms in north-east CS and near South Pacific.

Thats a double whammy. No moisture transport onshore from South Pac or CS anywhere south of Tropic of Capricorn.

With weak high pressure we get mostly NE winds, not the cooling SE winds associated with normal summer Tradewind patterns.

That means a: interior heat can migrate into coastal areas E of the divide, hotter temps, greater evaporation.
b: Greater chance of Ekman transport giving cold upwellings and feedback loops that deter moisture flows into the coast, effectively recreating desert coast moisture deficits.

That SST anom chart, to me, looks like more of the same for this summer: heatwaves with continuing severe moisture deficits.

We will need a major system to break it down. Hopefully not an other ex-Debbie flood.


Thanks for the explanation MM smile

.....I wonder though, if you only had access to the actual "today's" SST readings, ....would your explanation be the same???

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#1486344 - 22/01/2019 19:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
mammatus meestrus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 80
Loc: lennox head
SST's or anoms?

Those anomalies seem to been locked in place all summer.


Edited by mammatus meestrus (22/01/2019 19:15)

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#1486362 - 22/01/2019 21:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
SST's are real/now.

The anom's refer now with respect to a tiny 30 year base line of data, over any (not recent) block period of time that climatologist's can pick out over the past circa 50 years to suit whatever their personal needs warrant.

10 minutes of checking anomaly charts on various climate sites (focusing on the reference anomaly date range [IF they show them]) will explain what I mean.

Why cant all climatologists agree on a standard anomaly reference data formula, (e.g. 1970 to present [or whatever reflects the newer available observations that "both camps" can agree to, updated every year??).

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#1486365 - 22/01/2019 21:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


According to BOM:

Quote:
The lack of an El Niño-like wind pattern indicates the atmospheric circulation required for El Niño has been missing this summer



Now look at the trade winds in 2006.


According to BOM:

Quote:
There has been a further strengthening of the El Niño during November: Pacific Ocean temperatures have continued
to warm along the equator, the Trade Winds remain weaker than average and cloudiness is above normal in the
western to central Pacific. The 2006/07 El Niño now looks to be entering the maturing phase, which is characterised
by self-sustaining feedback between the Pacific ocean temperatures, winds and cloud patterns.


And on 11 October 2006

Quote:
A strong westerly wind burst has emerged in the western Pacific in the past fortnight.


Both years peaked with westerly wind anomalies in the 3-4 m/s range, with 2006 at the top end and this year low end of that range, but the 2006 peak WWB gets described as 'strong', and this year's westerly winds totally ignored.


October 2006 with respect to the dynamics of January 2019, without info on IOD/SOI/SST et al for that time = clutching at straws mate?

I commend you for relentlessly seeking a cause for our 2018 drought, hope you find it. Very happy to call it the "Hauber drought index" with the appropriate climatic indicators.

The reason is out there with all the metrics available to us, no one has nailed it (well to the satisfaction of peers) yet. That's why it's been one hell of a fascinating conversation over the past year on this thread.

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#1486371 - 22/01/2019 22:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Wow at this monsoon system as it arrives:


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#1486375 - 22/01/2019 22:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


According to BOM:

Quote:
The lack of an El Niño-like wind pattern indicates the atmospheric circulation required for El Niño has been missing this summer



Now look at the trade winds in 2006.


According to BOM:

Quote:
There has been a further strengthening of the El Niño during November: Pacific Ocean temperatures have continued
to warm along the equator, the Trade Winds remain weaker than average and cloudiness is above normal in the
western to central Pacific. The 2006/07 El Niño now looks to be entering the maturing phase, which is characterised
by self-sustaining feedback between the Pacific ocean temperatures, winds and cloud patterns.


And on 11 October 2006

Quote:
A strong westerly wind burst has emerged in the western Pacific in the past fortnight.


Both years peaked with westerly wind anomalies in the 3-4 m/s range, with 2006 at the top end and this year low end of that range, but the 2006 peak WWB gets described as 'strong', and this year's westerly winds totally ignored.


They haven’t changed a thing, it’s because you refuse to acknowledge SOI or OLR. They are 2 key ingredients that they look at when they consider ENSO.

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#1486395 - 23/01/2019 07:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino


They haven’t changed a thing, it’s because you refuse to acknowledge SOI or OLR.

So you are not disputing the similarity between trades this year and trades in 2006 then?

Originally Posted By: Kino

acknowledge SOI or OLR. They are 2 key ingredients that they look at when they consider ENSO.


Lets have a look at the actual BOM criteria:

Quote:
"An El Niño has been declared and is underway."

Any three of the following criteria need to be satisfied:
Sea surface temperature: Temperatures in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific Ocean are 0.8 °C warmer than average.
Winds: Trade winds have been weaker than average in the western or central equatorial Pacific Ocean during any three of the last four months.
SOI: The three-month average SOI is –7 or lower.
Models: A majority of surveyed climate models show sustained warming to at least 0.8 °C above average in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific until the end of the year.


I don't see any OLR or cloudiness in there. SOI is there, but they also specificy that el nino should be declared if 3 of the 4 requirements are met. So SST, trades and models are enough to declare el nino according to BOM specified criteria.

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#1486403 - 23/01/2019 08:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
In all La Nina transitions I have observed in TAO there seems to be a returning subsurface warm pool. To illustrate with 2010:

Jan 21:



Most of the subsurface warm pool is moving a fair way east. There is a small area of warmer subsurface waters near 5N, 160-180E

Mar 27:



This subsurface warm pool has intensified and is showing signs of extending further west as -ve anomalies further west have weakened since January.

May 1:



The subsurface warm pool is now on the western edge of the map, and further east a strong La Nina transition is underway.

Something like this happens every La Nina transition. Other La Nina years have some type of weak returning warm pool evident by this date. Current situation:



No returning subsurface warm pool.

Not sure of the exact mechanism of this returning subsurface warmth. Rossby waves might play a role, although movement is very jerky. Might signify equatorial counter current weakening to allow more warmth to accumulate north of the equator in the west. Part of it might be rapid Kelvin wave forced extension of the equatorial cool subsurface waters leaving warm anomalies behind to the north. I can't put a definitive mechanism on what is happening here, so I can't say whether it is important for La Nina transition, but do note it is evident in other transitions by this date and missing so far. Maybe it will appear in a month or three with no significant consequence.

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#1486410 - 23/01/2019 10:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
MJO expected to go null after it sets off a pair of cyclones over Tropical Aus over next day or three. Should allow a period of tropical moisture ingress into the hotter areas of inland Aus?

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#1486455 - 23/01/2019 16:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Werner K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 585
Loc: Flinders Park, SA
"period of tropical moisture ingress into hotter areas of inland Aus" - would be nice to flush some of this disgusting heat away!.

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#1486487 - 23/01/2019 20:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
SEAN888 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/09/2007
Posts: 1074
Loc: Mel
Originally Posted By: Kino
What part of BANNED do you not understand? Seriously? And your first line is why it is banned.


Love it how the undercurrent of denial is tolerated on this forum, yet as soon as that denial is contested, the rules suddenly get screamed in the person's face.

Now THAT'S a conspiracy!

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#1486493 - 23/01/2019 20:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: SEAN888]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
Originally Posted By: SEAN888
Originally Posted By: Kino
What part of BANNED do you not understand? Seriously? And your first line is why it is banned.


Love it how the undercurrent of denial is tolerated on this forum, yet as soon as that denial is contested, the rules suddenly get screamed in the person's face.

Now THAT'S a conspiracy!


Uh huh, I have a feeling that quote is going to get a flogging.

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#1486496 - 23/01/2019 20:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: SEAN888]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 479
Originally Posted By: SEAN888
Originally Posted By: Kino
What part of BANNED do you not understand? Seriously? And your first line is why it is banned.


Love it how the undercurrent of denial is tolerated on this forum, yet as soon as that denial is contested, the rules suddenly get screamed in the person's face.

Now THAT'S a conspiracy!


Yeah man, it’s rather galling hey. A good one that often pops up is the anomalies for SST’s. Always interesting to see the creative denial that goes on there despite every major scientific organisation backing up the veracity of the figures, not to mention the marine ecosystems themselves.

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#1486503 - 23/01/2019 21:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Eigerwand]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Originally Posted By: SEAN888
Originally Posted By: Kino
What part of BANNED do you not understand? Seriously? And your first line is why it is banned.


Love it how the undercurrent of denial is tolerated on this forum, yet as soon as that denial is contested, the rules suddenly get screamed in the person's face.

Now THAT'S a conspiracy!


Yeah man, it’s rather galling hey. A good one that often pops up is the anomalies for SST’s. Always interesting to see the creative denial that goes on there despite every major scientific organisation backing up the veracity of the figures, not to mention the marine ecosystems themselves.


Thats just an indication of an even bigger conspiracy.

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#1486504 - 23/01/2019 21:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 479
Haha! Yeah, those coral reefs etc really know how to play that cloak and dagger.

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#1486551 - 24/01/2019 10:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Trades remain fresh Nino1.2 through into Nino.4. With EC & GFS both forecasting trades in this region for freshen more over coming days, it will be interesting to see how low SST drop in Nino1.2 by early next week.

.....and for Mike, do I detect a WWB to commence into W side of Nino.4 over the weekend?

MJO is very active over Aus tropics right now, with the expected tropic storm about to impact Broome with some useful rain. More interesting will be watching the rainfall accumulations in the Townsville to Pt Douglas region over the next 6-9 days, ...and what this tropical activity does to the dynamics of the WWB generation zone above New Guinea.

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#1486553 - 24/01/2019 10:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2583
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
And still the high in the tasman sea remains.

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#1486555 - 24/01/2019 11:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: RC
And still the high in the tasman sea remains.


But it is elongating more W-E more like a typical weak summer high, the Quidge impact is very weak now and shouldn't block moist air from advecting in from the Coral sea to northern Qld areas?

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#1486563 - 24/01/2019 12:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Need Riley to get to a large Cat4/5 and then barrel ESE across the Country. That'll shift things.

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#1486567 - 24/01/2019 12:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Petros
Originally Posted By: RC
And still the high in the tasman sea remains.


But it is elongating more W-E more like a typical weak summer high, the Quidge impact is very weak now and shouldn't block moist air from advecting in from the Coral sea to northern Qld areas?


But it's these weak little extensions of the southern highs that keep building northwards and dragging up dry air onto the east coast that's the problem. For example, why can't the high east of Tasmania that you see on this chart just continue moving east like the rest of the SH instead of stalling between NSW and NZ? Instead, check out to +120 hours, that high has once again stalled between NSW and NZ.


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#1486575 - 24/01/2019 13:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1880
Loc: Kingaroy
There has to be something going on in the atmosphere or ocean to be causing that.

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#1486623 - 24/01/2019 16:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Petros
Originally Posted By: RC
And still the high in the tasman sea remains.


But it is elongating more W-E more like a typical weak summer high, the Quidge impact is very weak now and shouldn't block moist air from advecting in from the Coral sea to northern Qld areas?


But it's these weak little extensions of the southern highs that keep building northwards and dragging up dry air onto the east coast that's the problem. For example, why can't the high east of Tasmania that you see on this chart just continue moving east like the rest of the SH instead of stalling between NSW and NZ? Instead, check out to +120 hours, that high has once again stalled between NSW and NZ.



Everyone has had a go at explaining this to some extent Mega, and they all have merit, but I dont think anyone has nailed why it has basically morphed into the same shape across all seasons for years now. The warm water in the Tasman has been around for a long time now, but this doesnt cover it fully does it? Same with the warm water east of PNG, a factor Im sure, but to setup such a stagnant synoptic pattern for so long?
To me the uppers have not been dynamic enough to bust through the Quidge regularly. Down here we used to get decent shear and storms would roll off the range onto the coast. Now there is no shear and storms mostly just park on the ranges; its indicative of a change in the jetstream pattern Im guessing. Maybe the antarctic vortex has tightened, leaving us in the upper doldrums?
When the uppers do activate it can setup some nice events, with black northeasters into NSW a pattern that the quidge enhances when we do get a good cold pool move in.
We need highs centred over Tasmania with long fetch easterlies onto the whole eastern seaboard with a dip of low pressure down the coast, (not just a heat trough 300ks inland) to bring decent rains (outside the tropics)
Certainly a very claustrophobic pattern. If it keeps up another 4 years it will squeeze a lot of people to breaking point.

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#1486636 - 24/01/2019 16:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 892
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Looks like Hadley cell expansion to me.


Edited by Funkyseefunkydo (24/01/2019 16:56)

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#1486657 - 24/01/2019 18:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Looks like Hadley cell expansion to me.


You're probably right, but why so frequently and prolonged these past few summers? What's going on up there in the NH?

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#1486658 - 24/01/2019 18:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
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Let’s build a wall!

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#1486668 - 24/01/2019 18:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
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Next week or 2 are critical. The low forming in the GOC expected to move south and wander over the NT interior supplying the southern passing troughs with a good deal of moisture. The current heat over the S will be acting as a big energy source which will attract the low - I'm expecting it to move further south than forecast.

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#1486681 - 24/01/2019 19:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Long Road Home]
Petros Offline
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Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
Next week or 2 are critical. The low forming in the GOC expected to move south and wander over the NT interior supplying the southern passing troughs with a good deal of moisture. The current heat over the S will be acting as a big energy source which will attract the low - I'm expecting it to move further south than forecast.


Could not agree more.

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#1486704 - 24/01/2019 20:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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MJO looks to have spawned a couple of tropical Aus storm systems atm, ...as expected by many.

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#1486756 - 24/01/2019 23:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
marakai Offline
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Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Looks like Hadley cell expansion to me.


You're probably right, but why so frequently and prolonged these past few summers? What's going on up there in the NH?


Weakening of Earths magnetic field and a squishing of the upper atmosphere in response ?

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#1486785 - 25/01/2019 08:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
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Can anyone explain why that warm water blob is not reinforcing a rising air zone as opposed to a descending air zone.

They do look 'coupled' but that seems counter-intuitive to me.

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#1486787 - 25/01/2019 08:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
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(Edit expired)
Hmm, on thinking about it more the word 'coupled' needs clarifying. I can see how a zone of persistant cloud-free high pressure could create a warm blob but it doesn't seem likely a warm blob is going to "reinforce" a high... so maybe the warm water is an effect not a cause and not a coupling as in an ENSO coupling.

Still looking for the source of the persistant high. It has vaguely coincided with three years of precipitous Antarctic sea-ice drop-off.

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#1486954 - 25/01/2019 16:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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Maybe it has to do with expansion of Hadley Cell?

http://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/hadley-cell-expansion

"As global temperatures rise, the temperature difference between the poles and the equator is likely to decrease, expanding the cell of air circulation adjacent to the equator known as the Hadley Cell. One effect this has is that mid-latitude regions like the Mediterranean and the Southwestern US are likely to see an increase in sea level pressure—which corresponds to drier weather."

But how can that possibly be since global warming does not exist? crazy

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#1486978 - 25/01/2019 18:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
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That seems a strong possibility. Didn't take much searching to find
this.

I think if there was a deeper appreciation of how exquisitely balanced some of these atmospheric systems are, there might be a little more curiosity and concern in certain quarters. Imagine the NH flipping to a single cell system for a year or three...that is where the trend is heading. Our little warm blob is nuthin'.

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#1486988 - 25/01/2019 19:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Petros Offline
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Originally Posted By: Mega
Maybe it has to do with expansion of Hadley Cell?

http://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/hadley-cell-expansion

"As global temperatures rise, the temperature difference between the poles and the equator is likely to decrease, expanding the cell of air circulation adjacent to the equator known as the Hadley Cell. One effect this has is that mid-latitude regions like the Mediterranean and the Southwestern US are likely to see an increase in sea level pressure—which corresponds to drier weather."

But how can that possibly be since global warming does not exist? crazy


Er, ...when is this effect going to happen? I hear its raining at Cairns???

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#1486992 - 25/01/2019 19:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Delta-T Offline
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Originally Posted By: Petros
Originally Posted By: Mega
Maybe it has to do with expansion of Hadley Cell?

http://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/hadley-cell-expansion

"As global temperatures rise, the temperature difference between the poles and the equator is likely to decrease, expanding the cell of air circulation adjacent to the equator known as the Hadley Cell. One effect this has is that mid-latitude regions like the Mediterranean and the Southwestern US are likely to see an increase in sea level pressure—which corresponds to drier weather."

But how can that possibly be since global warming does not exist? crazy


Er, ...when is this effect going to happen? I hear its raining at Cairns???


"an increase in sea level pressure—which corresponds to drier weather" due an expansion of the Hadley cell and a strengthening of the STR is probably going to be felt more in the south.

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#1486995 - 25/01/2019 19:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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There was a good post on reddit that I found too regarding Hadley Cell. It's interesting stuff:

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comme...n1jh/?context=3

It's cool too though if you don't want to believe it's happening and that the earth is somehow in a stagnant state of climate over billions of years.

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#1487007 - 25/01/2019 20:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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But shouldn't a Hadley Cell expansion lead to an increase in trade winds and a La Ninalike state?

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#1487016 - 25/01/2019 21:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
RC Offline
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Originally Posted By: Petros


Er, ...when is this effect going to happen? I hear its raining at Cairns???


Maybe it is. You should look further south where it is not raining.

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#1487024 - 25/01/2019 21:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Chris Stumer]
Delta-T Offline
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Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
But shouldn't a Hadley Cell expansion lead to an increase in trade winds and a La Ninalike state?


The observations and forecasts are for a widening and weakening of the Hadley circulation from here

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#1487086 - 26/01/2019 09:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Absolutely no change in the stagnant Tasman highs in the BOM four day forecast.

Longer range forecasts predict no change either well into February.

Didn't I read here someone predict it was going to break down the end of this month and there would be a widespread rain event across Australia?

It is nearly like that high is also keeping the monsoon pushed up high across Australia. Blocking the quidge from doing it's normal run back and forward across Queensland. That is, moving from western Qld to coastal Queensland bringing rain events, then retreating back to western Queensland again.

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#1487107 - 26/01/2019 11:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Yep RC, looking very Quidge-like again along the E Coast. Not good.

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#1487181 - 26/01/2019 18:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
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Haha!

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#1487184 - 26/01/2019 18:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Nice to see tropical rain setting in for NE QLD - hope it carries on for a week!

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#1487335 - 27/01/2019 12:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Delta-T Offline
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I regularly check out Seabreeze to get a rough handle on winds for the days ahead. It hasn't changed in 6 weeks.

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#1487338 - 27/01/2019 12:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Tropical rain is now pushing down as far as Mackay. Very good to see.

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#1487344 - 27/01/2019 13:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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But it’s not hitting Rockhampton Petros so doesn’t matter 🙄🙄🙄

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#1487346 - 27/01/2019 13:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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It's amazing what can happen over this side of the country when all the moisture isn't being clogged up in the Indian / WA monsoon. I know this isn't always the case however.

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#1487347 - 27/01/2019 13:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
one drop Offline
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Registered: 15/04/2014
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3000 posts and nothing much useful or interesting to add. ever.

Originally Posted By: Kino
But it’s not hitting Rockhampton Petros so doesn’t matter


its a bit like this endless weather pattern we're stuck in smile

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#1487387 - 27/01/2019 18:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Petros Offline
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Originally Posted By: RC
...
Didn't I read here someone predict it was going to break down the end of this month and there would be a widespread rain event across Australia?

It is nearly like that high is also keeping the monsoon pushed up high across Australia. Blocking the quidge from doing it's normal run back and forward across Queensland. That is, moving from western Qld to coastal Queensland bringing rain events, then retreating back to western Queensland again.


Who ever it was, ....well done to them smile . .....Must be painfull to get non-politically-correct rain when it arrives?

....looking forward to some way down here as well (but not as much please), ....the situation does look healthier for the inland/SE areas of Aus in coming weeks IMO.


There is still four days of wetness to endure before the end of the month (when it will presumably stop?) - so good luck floodwise to all those in tropical QLD.

Just teasing, Nino'ists, dont get too upset.


Edited by Petros (27/01/2019 18:24)

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#1487388 - 27/01/2019 18:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: one drop]
Petros Offline
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Originally Posted By: one drop
3000 posts and nothing much useful or interesting to add. ever.

Originally Posted By: Kino
But it’s not hitting Rockhampton Petros so doesn’t matter


its a bit like this endless weather pattern we're stuck in smile


Define what will be the end of it? - rain in Townsville like last years event, ..?

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#1487392 - 27/01/2019 18:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: one drop]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
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Originally Posted By: one drop
3000 posts and nothing much useful or interesting to add. ever.

Originally Posted By: Kino
But it’s not hitting Rockhampton Petros so doesn’t matter


its a bit like this endless weather pattern we're stuck in smile


Like your quality 46 contribution ‘eh. But you should prob change your user to ‘long drop’ cause that’s more reflective smile

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#1487393 - 27/01/2019 19:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
RC Offline
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Originally Posted By: Petros

Who ever it was, ....well done to them smile . .....Must be painfull to get non-politically-correct rain when it arrives?



It is not very widespread.

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#1487463 - 28/01/2019 02:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
one drop Offline
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Registered: 15/04/2014
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Originally Posted By: Kino


Like your quality 46 contribution ‘eh. But you should prob change your user to ‘long drop’ cause that’s more reflective smile


smile
back to the topic of climate drivers, what about the effect of the kino cell expansion....
full of hot air, extending the doldrums right across the continent i can't see this relentless pattern letting up any time soon.

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#1487467 - 28/01/2019 08:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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More likely the seas being the drivers, and good thing that one drop of mediocrity doesn’t make much difference in the outlooks.

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#1487491 - 28/01/2019 11:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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* Nino.3 seems to be cooling
* subsurface temp profile E of Nino.3 shows cooler waters rising closer to the surface (due to the strong trades over the past 10 days out that way I guess)
* no cloud over the Pacific Nino regions at the moment
* clearly westerly winds over the EQ Pacific from N.G. through into Nino3.4 - and set to stay that way for several days to come acc. to EC & GFS (Windy site)
* MJO models (well the american ones at least) show a tendency for the MJO to linger out in the Pacific

Very much like a Kelvin Wave generation setup?

To me, if the MJO returns to null over next 4-5 days, more tropical activity for AUS, but if it strengthens out mid Pacific like some MJO models suggest, we could end up pushing towards Nino conditions. This would, imo, be confirmed by tropical cloud formation over Nino3.4, and a weaker monsoon around AUS into February.

Next few days will be interesting.

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#1487508 - 28/01/2019 12:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Delta-T Offline
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Keno: a repetitive, annoying announcement every 3 minutes. wink

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#1487533 - 28/01/2019 15:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seina Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
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Hi guys smile !!!


Edited by Seina (28/01/2019 15:54)

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#1487555 - 28/01/2019 18:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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I think that its significant that NQ has had the biggest ever flood of the Daintree R ever. Just noting it here for future records.

Looks to have been very wet over the past day or so Townsville to Mackay going by the SatIR/radar loop?

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#1487556 - 28/01/2019 18:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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And much more to come if current modeling is anything to go by.

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#1487574 - 28/01/2019 19:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
RC Offline
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Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Petros
I think that its significant that NQ has had the biggest ever flood of the Daintree R ever. Just noting it here for future records.

Looks to have been very wet over the past day or so Townsville to Mackay going by the SatIR/radar loop?


Lots of rivers have big floods.

But where is the widespread trough covering a large area of Australia. All we are seeing here is a monsoon. That is not unusual.

Look at the weather map, the high is still there in the Tasman, and still forecast to stay there. Looking at long term forecasts the first couple of weeks of Feburary already look to be a write off for widespread rain events for much of Australia.

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#1487578 - 28/01/2019 20:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
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Originally Posted By: RC
Originally Posted By: Petros
I think that its significant that NQ has had the biggest ever flood of the Daintree R ever. Just noting it here for future records.

Looks to have been very wet over the past day or so Townsville to Mackay going by the SatIR/radar loop?


Lots of rivers have big floods.

But where is the widespread trough covering a large area of Australia. All we are seeing here is a monsoon. That is not unusual.

Look at the weather map, the high is still there in the Tasman, and still forecast to stay there. Looking at long term forecasts the first couple of weeks of Feburary already look to be a write off for widespread rain events for much of Australia.


You do realise some of our biggest rain events have been aided by blocking highs deep in the Tasman Sea? Oswald being one of them. There is also a difference between the rubbish ridge from the last month to the traditional ridge of Feb-Mar which looks like setting up later in the week. There is more to it than just looking at a weather map and identifying a 'H' in the Tasman Sea.

And your observation about the high still being in the Tasman and forecast to sit there is technically incorrect as well. For the first time in over a month those highs are shifting further south and they're finally moving from W to E like they should be. Some models have the monsoon trough getting down to about Mackay late in the week as the ridge weakens between those highs. There seems to be some movement in the upper levels again too which is a good sign instead of the same old upper-level ridge.

Yes, it's bad through a fair chunk of the state right now but we still have Feb & Mar to go. I think you're extremely brave to be writing the season off already.

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#1487579 - 28/01/2019 20:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
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Loc: Buderim
El Nino Modoki impact is delayed monsoon onset but once it arrives more intense than normal. Enhanced rainfall in January and especially February, then back to dry in March.

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#1487583 - 28/01/2019 20:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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So does a classic El Niño so did the La Niña of last year.

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#1487587 - 28/01/2019 21:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Petros Offline
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Originally Posted By: RC
Originally Posted By: Petros
I think that its significant that NQ has had the biggest ever flood of the Daintree R ever. Just noting it here for future records.

Looks to have been very wet over the past day or so Townsville to Mackay going by the SatIR/radar loop?


Lots of rivers have big floods.

But where is the widespread trough covering a large area of Australia. All we are seeing here is a monsoon. That is not unusual.

Look at the weather map, the high is still there in the Tasman, and still forecast to stay there. Looking at long term forecasts the first couple of weeks of Feburary already look to be a write off for widespread rain events for much of Australia.


RC ..its the lack of a monsoon that would be significant.

Hope that not too much rain falls over your house. ...to vindicate you climatic perception.

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#1487591 - 28/01/2019 21:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Originally Posted By: Kino
So does a classic El Niño


No it doesn't. A classic el nino weakens the monsoon all summer long, although the effect is not strong.

Originally Posted By: Kino
so did the La Niña of last year.


Last year was wet in Jan and Mar, dry in Dec and Feb. El Nino modoki is dry in Dec and especially Mar, and wet in Jan and especially Feb.

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#1487594 - 28/01/2019 22:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Lets all sit back for a week. MJO is so important right now. Non of us can change where it tends from this present state.

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#1487596 - 28/01/2019 22:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
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Honestly ENSO is very confusing at the moment, we've got a solid cold sub surface pool building in the East Pac.


Then meanwhile we've got a monster MJO burst predicted for the El Nino favourable regions. Along with this negative OLR readings have started to materialise.


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#1487626 - 29/01/2019 09:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
RC Offline
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Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Mega



Yes, it's bad through a fair chunk of the state right now but we still have Feb & Mar to go. I think you're extremely brave to be writing the season off already.


You can write off the season as consistent rain has not fallen, and the growing season is nearly over.

What use is 500mm falling in two days. That is not out of the ordinary, but unusual.

People need to get over total rainfall and instead concentrate on consistent rainfall.

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#1487639 - 29/01/2019 10:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
mammatus meestrus Offline
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totally agree.

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#1487644 - 29/01/2019 11:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Pacific trades are weakening imo, and are progged to weaken further over the next 6 days acc. to Windy sites pair of models. Good chance that Nino3.4 waters may warm (become warmer than the Nino.4 region) over this next week? This could tip the ENSO neutral indicators towards El Nino fairly quickly I reckon.

RC - re whats the use of 500mm. Didnt I see one of you post about low dam levels up around Rocky?

If you folk dont want rain now, .....then could you send some down here. Cant see the mountains for smoke today.


Edited by Petros (29/01/2019 11:25)

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#1487647 - 29/01/2019 11:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Check out EC's latest rainfall charts for next 10 days over QLD. Finally some decent rain for the west side of the divide around the Cloncurry-Winton regions. Hope it comes off!

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#1487667 - 29/01/2019 14:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
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Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Petros


RC - re whats the use of 500mm. Didnt I see one of you post about low dam levels up around Rocky?



Nope, but you seem to have a very urban centric view of rain events.

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#1487674 - 29/01/2019 14:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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How is wishing for rain for you and your dams urban centric 🤔🤔🤦🏻‍♂️

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#1487677 - 29/01/2019 15:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
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Loc: Toowoomba
Have you people been reading the se qld/ne nsw thread lately
especially Seabreezes and Mega's posts.? Nothing to look forward to but record or near record rain deficiencies from the coast right into the inland along the border. Rockhampton Winton and Cloncurry are worlds away

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#1487707 - 29/01/2019 17:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus


Edited by Mick10 (31/01/2019 22:46)
Edit Reason: edited link, pic too big

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#1487708 - 29/01/2019 17:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
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Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Watching this space closely, individual storms forming near the low/monsoon trough over W QLD have the potential for some significant flooding. This pattern looks to be sticking around as far as models can see.

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#1487717 - 29/01/2019 18:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Dejavu from last year. Some folk up on QLD northern regions, once convinced that "it wont rain" - seem to hate it when rain actually arrives, ....as per last year.

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#1487720 - 29/01/2019 18:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Petros Offline
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Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
Have you people been reading the se qld/ne nsw thread lately
especially Seabreezes and Mega's posts.? Nothing to look forward to but record or near record rain deficiencies from the coast right into the inland along the border. Rockhampton Winton and Cloncurry are worlds away


HSHP - hope you get some rain soon too. I hope we get rain soon - SE Vic would be worse off over the past 12 months than your location. Seems to be a theme here among some that if it "doesnt rain for me" ....it's all bad!

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#1487727 - 29/01/2019 19:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
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Thanks for the reply Petros and I can assure you that is not my attitude.

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#1487789 - 30/01/2019 08:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Warm pool on the dateline continues to drive westerly anomalies to the west. These westerly anomalies continue to maintain the warm pool on the dateline. Further east temps have cooled a fair bit, but seem to be rebounding a little in response to the recent spread of westerly anomalies further east, which is forecast to continue for much of the current short range forecast.



A new warm Kelvin wave is evident in the west, but seems unusually slow moving. Cool Kelvin wave is approaching the eastern edge and should be causing cooling in the east in the next week or two.



According to research El Nino Modoki has its strongest impact in Autumn. Looking at recent years the impact seems to be mixed. In 2010 Autumn was quite wet (lead up to 10/11 La Nina may have contributed). 2005 was quite dry, and 2003 was close to average.

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#1487844 - 30/01/2019 13:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Petros Offline
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Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
...According to research El Nino Modoki has its strongest impact in Autumn. Looking at recent years the impact seems to be mixed. In 2010 Autumn was quite wet (lead up to 10/11 La Nina may have contributed). 2005 was quite dry, and 2003 was close to average.


So for Nino Modoki, if one event was wet, another dry, and another average, ....doesn't that suggest that some other phenomenon is perturbing the the chance of rainfall during Modaki events?

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#1488002 - 30/01/2019 23:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Surprised we haven’t heard from our Townsville people who told us it’d never rain again there...meanwhile this is the fullest the Ross River Dam has been in 5 years and the earliest it’s been to 100% in a long time.

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#1488070 - 31/01/2019 11:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
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There is also some incredible rains forecast for W QLD now by BoM WATL, huge boost to the river systems with 300-400mm forecast. GFS extends the big falls further south every run with Boulia (who have been in drought for years) also expecting something decent.. All that recent intense heat is providing a massive buildup - what I predict will be a near record flood for much of QLD in weeks to come.

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#1488102 - 31/01/2019 12:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
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As long as it gets into the Warrego, Maranoa and darling downs and hopefully even further south. The whole eastern hair of the continent needs a big drink

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#1488119 - 31/01/2019 13:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Petros Offline
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Originally Posted By: RC
A

....Didn't I read here someone predict it was going to break down the end of this month and there would be a widespread rain event across Australia?

It is nearly like that high is also keeping the monsoon pushed up high across Australia. Blocking the quidge from doing it's normal run back and forward across Queensland. That is, moving from western Qld to coastal Queensland bringing rain events, then retreating back to western Queensland again.


Whoever the someone was, the end of the month has arrived. .....along with major flooding issues in Nth QLD.

The current monsoon, which has been in place for near a week now, is a ripper!:


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#1488124 - 31/01/2019 13:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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MJO models all mixed with the monsoons progression from here (strongly in Nino-like phase 6). Its been centered out there for near 4 days now, so I'd have expected some decent cloud forming over Nino.4, and also the monsoon state over Aus to be weaker than it presently is.

Will the MJO remain out in 6/7 (potentially creating a coupled atmoshpere) ....or will it go back null leaving the monsoon in play over Aus for another week or more?

The yankee models seems to voting for the former, many other models send it back null in a few days time. Interesting, esp. with the WWB evident West of Nino.4 currently in place.

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#1488141 - 31/01/2019 14:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ifishcq Offline
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Funny how things can be quite different just not to far away from all this rain. I'm near Rockhampton and it's still so dam dry here. My 2 dams are dead empty and just cracked mud. The cattle are on what bore water I can pump. No rain for this area likely at all by the looks of all the models. Yet floods just to the north. It truly is a land of drought & flooding rains.
_________________________
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#1488144 - 31/01/2019 15:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
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Raining over 5% of the country. Not really widespread.

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#1488159 - 31/01/2019 16:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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We are in drought, we all know that. I'm in severe drought down here too - with the added bonus of being surrounded by bushfire.

Whats worse than a drought? - it's a drought coupled with a failed monsoon season.

I'm sure that most of us (but starting to suspect that "most" could be substituted with "many") realize that when rains return after a drought, the moisture for it doesn't arrive as a gift from the southern ocean.

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#1488160 - 31/01/2019 16:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Sillybanter Offline
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Might be a little more than 5% me thinks. It is a fairly significant weather event even if your not part of it.
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Raining over 5% of the country. Not really widespread.

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#1488161 - 31/01/2019 16:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
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About 30% of the country is expecting decent rains, about 7-10% expecting flooding rain. Pretty significant area when you think about it

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#1488169 - 31/01/2019 16:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
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Okay 5% yeah nah. 30% yeah nah. What would constitute “widespread rain for Australia “? 50%?

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#1488197 - 31/01/2019 18:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Petros Offline
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Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Okay 5% yeah nah. 30% yeah nah. What would constitute “widespread rain for Australia “? 50%?


ergo - just a flame, no fact or opinion to add value to this discussion.

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#1488210 - 31/01/2019 18:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
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What’s an ergo?

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#1488211 - 31/01/2019 18:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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I wouldn't say it's widespread yet but surely it can't be ignored that the monsoon of old has returned to northern QLD after years of it being almost strictly confined to NT/WA.

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#1488225 - 31/01/2019 19:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Overall dry areas clearly dominate over wet areas for January.



Modoki impact has enhanced monsoon starting in January, but mostly evident in February. There were some areas of enhanced rainfall about NT, but less than for an ideal Modoki. The pattern was dominated by enhanced westerly flow over the north of the country, with strong convergence over NE Qld. Typicaly Modoki pattern is enhanced westerly flow but convergence happening more in NT and NW Qld.



From NH charts it looks like monsoon this year is getting much more push from NW Pacific, as opposed to NE Asian continent. At least compared to last year.

My eye has been caught by the area of large scale sinking air in east Indian Ocean forecast in the current MJO forecast. North Australia is still in uplift, but Descending air in east Indian tends to transmit stability towards the SE over the rest of the continent.


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#1488230 - 31/01/2019 19:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Mega Offline
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Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
From NH charts it looks like monsoon this year is getting much more push from NW Pacific, as opposed to NE Asian continent. At least compared to last year.


Completely agree with this.

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
My eye has been caught by the area of large scale sinking air in east Indian Ocean forecast in the current MJO forecast. North Australia is still in uplift, but Descending air in east Indian tends to transmit stability towards the SE over the rest of the continent.



Handy image. If that large area of descending air traverses east then we might be looking at a dryish late Feb-Mar. Only early days yet though.

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#1488231 - 31/01/2019 19:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
mammatus meestrus Offline
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those SST anoms for the Tasman and central eastern CS have produced exactly the kind of rainfall deficiencies highlighted in the above decile maps for Jan.

there's still not enough depth and strength in the E'ly flow to provide enough widespread convergence from the NQ monsoon trough and kick off moisture ingress into SEQLD and sub-tropical NSW.

ergo: dry from Mackay south.

outlook looks a little better, but the structural problem remains, unless that tropical low does the ex-Oswald that Access G keeps progging.


Edited by mammatus meestrus (31/01/2019 19:43)

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#1488273 - 31/01/2019 22:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Mm your outlook cant see through to the end of March! ...or if it can, would you share it?

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#1488422 - 01/02/2019 17:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: mammatus meestrus]
Delta-T Offline
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Originally Posted By: mammatus meestrus
those SST anoms for the Tasman and central eastern CS have produced exactly the kind of rainfall deficiencies highlighted in the above decile maps for Jan.

there's still not enough depth and strength in the E'ly flow to provide enough widespread convergence from the NQ monsoon trough and kick off moisture ingress into SEQLD and sub-tropical NSW.

ergo: dry from Mackay south.

outlook looks a little better, but the structural problem remains, unless that tropical low does the ex-Oswald that Access G keeps progging.


It's been bad enough enduring weeks of solidified blocking high. The low is forecast not to budge for two weeks now. In the history of meteorology, nevah has February weather from Mackay to Point Perpendicular been so predictable. Its preposterous.

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#1488487 - 01/02/2019 21:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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....its weather. We get so transfixed on our model predictions.

Yet we still believe predictions out 10+ years.

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#1488497 - 01/02/2019 22:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
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Registered: 30/04/2007
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Originally Posted By: Petros
....its weather. We get so transfixed on our model predictions.

Yet we still believe predictions out 10+ years.
many ten twenty thirty year predictions coming true. It’s not time to become complacent. It’s time to act . Sea ice can you see a trend ? I do.

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#1488499 - 01/02/2019 22:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
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Might add BoM spot on with their season outlook for summer temps.

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#1488716 - 03/02/2019 00:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Morham Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 147
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Originally Posted By: Petros
....its weather. We get so transfixed on our model predictions.

Yet we still believe predictions out 10+ years.

There are weather predictions from your common weatherman.

There are also predictions from people who possess a level of intelligence and knowledge that I can't fathom. Nor can the common weatherman.

Numbers being crunched, calculations, systems swirling in their brains keeping them up at night pondering what may be in store for the climate given the variables at hand. I tend to listen to those people, not disregard their conclusions and throw them in the pile of your common weatherman.

We listen to those people when engineering a building. We listen to them at the doctors micro surgery dept. We listen to them when building a satellite to orbit planet earth. We listen to the researchers editing DNA/building A.I/building quantum computers. Those gifted with the intelligence and motivation to push the boundaries of discovery.

When it comes to the climate why do we not listen to them?

The human race is probably a galactic miracle. Our civilisation exists in a delicate temperature zone, sure we would survive in a hotter world, our civilisation may not. And that would be a cosmic shame to look at earth in 5000 years and see scattered mad max style human tribes roaming the cooler regions of earth. All the cities and magnificent achievements forgotten and decaying.

And those are my thoughts for the moment, back to the weather!

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#1488893 - 03/02/2019 19:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
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#1488977 - 03/02/2019 22:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
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Registered: 08/10/2007
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Woolshed W of Townsville around 1,725mm for this event so far, Mt. Isa out west approaching half it's annual rainfall in the first few days of Feb. May not be country-wide (as is the case with a true La-nina pattern) however widespread stuff and more to come. Drought would be well and truly over now for the NW of the state. Newer model runs trying to bring the system further south through inland QLD than previous days which is a positive sign, may give areas like Boulia who have struggled for years a decent soaking.

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#1489079 - 04/02/2019 12:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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As Funkys animation shows, Nino1.2 looks to be warming over past week, imo due to weakend trades down that way. In fact the trades across the Pacific are weaker over past week (and set to remain that way for 6 days more going by EC/GFS on Windy site). Appears to be an actual WWB from N.G. through to the dateline.

Looks very Nino'ish to me.

The only counter to this is the cooler waters rising into the Nino.3 E side - but shouldnt influence the values in Nino3.4 zone imo.

The present monsoon over Aus seems to be cut-off from the general monsoon system(s) with the ITCZ located across Indonesia/N.G. by the SatIR.

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#1489080 - 04/02/2019 12:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
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Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
I do not think we will see much change until the South American coast cools down.

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#1489192 - 05/02/2019 11:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
mammatus meestrus Offline
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I don't see much change until that Tasman sea heat blob breaks down.

geez, it's gone quiet in here. Unprecedented climate records being broken everywhere and it's tumbleweeds blowing down the Main Street.

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#1489193 - 05/02/2019 11:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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I dunno, it was dry last spring/summer and the one before that and the one before that and that heat blob was not there then.

Seems to me there is a million and one reasons why it refuses to rain like it did in the past.

To get so many failed spring/summers in a row is quite unusual.

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#1489195 - 05/02/2019 11:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
mammatus meestrus Offline
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Registered: 20/11/2008
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it was wet last spring and the heat blob wasn't there.....that was during borderline La Nina conditions.
the heat blob developed early summer and rainfall failed.

It was wet this spring and the heat blob hadn't developed yet either.

I agree there are multi-factorial reasons for continuing failure of summer rainfall south of the tropics.

But it does look like an ocean heat issue in the Tasman sea is disrupting the normal flow of moisture laden E to SE winds onto sub-tropical areas.


Edited by mammatus meestrus (05/02/2019 11:52)

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#1489198 - 05/02/2019 12:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
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Registered: 30/04/2007
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Tasman look similar to this time last year. I wonder if this winter will be the same as last?
High move back over the mainland bringing cool SW winds to SE Australia.

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#1489199 - 05/02/2019 12:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
mammatus meestrus Offline
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Thats exactly what I mean.

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#1489204 - 05/02/2019 13:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
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Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Completely agree with you MM. As soon as I saw the redevelopment of that warm blob a couple of months ago I became worried.

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#1489256 - 05/02/2019 19:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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I'm skeptical that the GOC is presently shown as anomalously cool at the moment. It is 31C.

Flowin, can you post the actual SST map for the above pair of dates?


Edited by Petros (05/02/2019 19:03)

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#1489264 - 05/02/2019 19:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
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Registered: 30/04/2007
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This is what a hot northern Australia waters looks like. and today.

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#1489340 - 06/02/2019 10:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Thanks FSFD

Looks ENSO neutral atm, with a watch on water temps at Nino3.4 should they rise.

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#1489376 - 06/02/2019 13:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
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The first hint of subsurface warmth coming back west to the north of the equator has appeared in latest charts. Also the current WWB is strongest south of the equator, which is a typical el nino decline pattern.



However generally the westerlies along the equator are still substantial and have persisted for nearly a month now.



Short term forecasts suggest some weakening of westerly activity this week, and further intensification of the WWB in the second week. CFS weekly suggests a very strong WWB persisting throughout February. There would seem to be prospects of the current WWB pushing the Pacific into a moderate el nino event early in the year with potential for an extreme event if it continues building. Especially if the weekly CFS forecast verifies, although I'd say that forecast should be taken with a grain of salt. Also hard to tell exactly how this WWB will interact with factors that tend to destroy el ninos this time of year though.

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#1489396 - 06/02/2019 16:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
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Registered: 10/07/2006
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That WWB on CFS looks like a whopper if it comes to fruition.
_________________________
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#1489459 - 07/02/2019 01:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
marakai Offline
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Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2268
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
That WWB is looking like Groundhog Day just about the same time last year within a week or two ....and the year before as well.
Actually is there any year over the last few say three or four that got things right ?

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#1489463 - 07/02/2019 07:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
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Loc: Buderim
WWBs occurred this time of year (Jan-Mar) in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2018. All except 2016 resulted in significant warming in the next few months. 2016 was the tail end of an extreme el nino with most of the WWB restricted to south of the equator, and with subsurface warm anomalies stacked heavily to the east - typical el nino decline mode. 2018 was far weaker than the other WWBs and I didn't even notice it or comment on it at the time, but only afterward when it warmed in the east did I look back and consider that a weak WWB had occurred at the correct time to be a possible factor.

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#1489466 - 07/02/2019 08:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
I had commented a while ago that the Ningaloo Nina seemed to be weakening, but looking at latest SST is seems to be back. Big pile of cool SSTs further south of the region too.



Temperature gradient between cool waters to the west and warm waters to the east would be enhancing westerly activity in this region of the world.

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#1489493 - 07/02/2019 13:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
With MJO out at 6/7 atm, there is no cloud over the Pacific in that region going by latest SatIR.

Easterly (well ESE'ly) trades look to have returned to typical levels over Nino1.2 (which did warm, even over the top of cool lower layers during the lull over past 4-5 days).

Suggests to me that the uncoupled atmosphere look to continue, and that MJO will either go null in coming days, or zip along to phase 8, leaving Aus to stew in its present monsoonal conditions for at least a week or more to come.


Edited by Petros (07/02/2019 13:48)

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#1489503 - 07/02/2019 17:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
MJO 6/7 is West Pacific and there is currently plenty of cloud in West Pacific.



Cloudiness and westerly anomalies in West Pacific continue to be at similar levels to the 06/07 weak el nino event, and more extensive than previous warm neutral events such as 14/15.

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#1489565 - 08/02/2019 09:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Ta Mike. I did think that phase 8 was at the E boundary of Nino.3 (have now marked the zones on my globe).

The present cloudiness at 6/7 has been persistent for many weeks there, despite the MJO location. Cloud there, imo, is typical of neutral enso.

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#1489696 - 09/02/2019 03:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
That WWB on CFS looks like a whopper if it comes to fruition.


Still on the cards, and it's huge! Puts the others from the last few months to shame:


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#1489697 - 09/02/2019 04:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
For comparison, 2016, 2017 & 2018:


..................................................

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#1489714 - 09/02/2019 08:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The far east side of Nino3.4 (130-120W) looks to be cooling on todays readings. The below SST profile has also cooled out that way over past week.

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#1489726 - 09/02/2019 10:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7764
Loc: Adelaide Hills
what are the perils we face???

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#1489727 - 09/02/2019 10:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7764
Loc: Adelaide Hills
post 1489503 -- the numbers end with 10! Make them end with 10, not one smile !!!!! it's not the MJO!


Edited by Sein (09/02/2019 10:51)

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#1489781 - 09/02/2019 16:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 892
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
What’s going on here?

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#1489783 - 09/02/2019 16:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 892
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Gfs extended has onshore surface winds but 700hpa will be SW.

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#1489797 - 09/02/2019 18:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
At Lake Mac?

Looking at latest GFS run this arvo, .....looks dry in the 8 day outlook for most in Aus. Perhaps opportunity will be mopped up by the large prognosed tropical storm in the Coral Sea (but far offshore) set to move slowly E?

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#1489814 - 09/02/2019 20:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 892
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Referring to SAM effects on east coast.

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#1489820 - 09/02/2019 21:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 892
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Umm yeah that’s why it’s dry.


Edited by Funkyseefunkydo (09/02/2019 21:06)

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#1489826 - 09/02/2019 21:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 722
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
UH OH!
The SAM is literally dropping off a cliff, also worst possible time for it when we rely on the Monsoonal moisture dropping South with highs sitting south of the continent.

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#1489877 - 10/02/2019 14:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Forecast WWB according to GFS next week is pretty extreme. Wait and see if it happens, and if it does we should be well on the way to a strong el nino.

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#1489900 - 10/02/2019 18:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Forecast WWB according to GFS next week is pretty extreme. Wait and see if it happens, and if it does we should be well on the way to a strong el nino.


Got that "its about to swing one way, ....or another" feeling in my gut as well Mike.

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#1489918 - 10/02/2019 20:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
Knife edge alright. If we were in June I'd be getting on a Nino, but we barely into February so I know better.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1489940 - 11/02/2019 10:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This morning:

* Pacific trades are lacklustre (Westerly anomaly within the W side of Nino.4)
* MJO signal relatively strong at 6/7 - but no tropical cloud evident at that region
* SST profile continues to be holding same over past 7 days, except cooling a bit over E side of Nino.3 and Nino1.2 (dont expect that trend to continue with the trades as weak as they are, and are prognosed to continue to be)
* Below SST profile out E side of Nino.3 is "thin" - the surface water temp cools off rapidly at 25M below the surface (but as above - may not mean much with weaker than normal trades out that way)
* models see nothing in the outlook to trigger moist air inflow from the Indian over NW WA - nor do they allow for flow in from the Coral Sea, for the next week

Perfect conditions for that hated Quidge.

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#1490006 - 11/02/2019 23:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
So what is driving the short term climate response now?
ENSO appears atypical. Different labels put on ENSO scenarios, and status, but we're in the season where ENSO is commonly uncertain.
MJO a measure that is probably more a response indicator than driving indicator. IOD and SAM other indicators not alone but potentially also related in the bigger picture. Seems that a lot is still estimating or guess without much sound basis. So much we don't yet know.

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#1490064 - 12/02/2019 14:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Flowin]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Flowin
So what is driving the short term climate response now?.........


I'd call it climatic indecision.

With ENSO neutral, for the southern hemisphere (only), it seems that Huey is happy with the heat balance between the equator and the south pole (probably influenced by the massive tongue of warm water extending SE'ward all the way to 100W/30S in the southern Pacific).

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#1490082 - 12/02/2019 16:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 892
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
SAM going neg = strong westerly winds.

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#1490102 - 12/02/2019 18:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks FSFD - if it remains negative for a week or two, what's your prediction for the impact of this, given the present climatic conditions around Aus?

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#1490107 - 12/02/2019 19:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 892
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Cut off lows not making it to the mainland bringing dry and windy conditions to the southern half of Australia.

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#1490114 - 12/02/2019 19:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Petros
Originally Posted By: Flowin
So what is driving the short term climate response now?.........


I'd call it climatic indecision.

I like that response Petros. Maybe we need a new indicator named something like the "climate decisiveness indicator" LOL
Anyway away from the humour, I am enjoying reading the different perspectives on the current situation and outlook, while different parts of Australia are suffering with floods, fire, and drought, trying to understand the reasoning and trend is very interesting.

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#1490183 - 13/02/2019 09:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Trades have backed off to near neutral along the equator. Looking at current circulation charts suggests this isn't because the westerlies have backed off so much as they have moved south of the equator. Very strong westerly activity is forecast to commence in the next day or three, as the area of westerly activity moves back north a little.



What is curious is the warming in the far east. Satellite images suggest substantial warming not just near the equator, but all along the South American coast. Trade winds along the equator in the east are normal, maybe a little stronger than normal. On the larger scale the strength of the SE Pacific high is relatively normal, although it had been stronger than normal for much of the last year or three. The SE Pacific does seem to be backing away from a La Nina like mode to be pretty neutral at the moment. At the same time the NE Pacific had been backing away from el nino like towards neutrral, but seems to be surging back towards el nino like with the current westerly activity extending also towards California. Maybe its just short term and the trend away from el nino like will continue there.

Subsurface along the equator suggests a cool wave reaching the American coast making the eastern warming more puzzling.



However a look at what is happening a little south of the equator shows that there has been strong westerly activity in the Central Pacific, and possibly a warm Kelvin wave that is now impacting the east coast. Not sure if a wave can transmit effectively this far from the equator, and with low resolution of TAO the appearance of a wave could be coincidental.



The strength of the forecast WWB may push the western warm pool further east, and may also act to cool it down directly through evaporation, so it will be interesting to see if this combined with whatever is causing the eastern warming will move the current pattern away from Modoki like to a more east based warm event.

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#1490292 - 13/02/2019 22:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 272
...a bit of chatter around about the possibility of a "hybridised" nino...a mixture of canonical and modoki. Apek, Yu and Qian " Why were the 2015/16 and 1997/98 extreme El Ninos different?". I'm not making any claims that the dynamics are the same for the current situation.

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#1490296 - 13/02/2019 22:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
"enso-modokised with a tint IOD minus AAO divided by MJO" frown
what does hybridised mean when people in past have already split the ENSO indicators into different "breeds"....
I am not criticising the science like key influences in ocean heat, dynamics, and atmospheric coupling, but maybe the nino vs nina concept is flawed. After all it was a culturally transmitted concept in spanish boy / girl analogies of the weather or in other words a historical belief from several centuries ago well before much measuring, modelling, statistics, theory testing... maybe it is the nino / nina concept that is flawed... food for thought


Edited by Flowin (13/02/2019 22:54)
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1490297 - 13/02/2019 22:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 272
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber

The strength of the forecast WWB may push the western warm pool further east, and may also act to cool it down directly through evaporation, so it will be interesting to see if this combined with whatever is causing the eastern warming will move the current pattern away from Modoki like to a more east based warm event.


...only speculation as I dont have any source of evidence but wondered if the strengthening of westerly anoms not only increasing zonal advection of ssta's but also reducing upwelling (in the east) stabilising and stratifying the mixed layer which tends to shoal and is subject to increased net affect of direct solar radiation, perhaps more than offsetting the evaporative cooling affect...

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#1490321 - 14/02/2019 10:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Flowin]
one drop Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/04/2014
Posts: 112
Loc: maryborough
Originally Posted By: Flowin
"enso-modokised with a tint IOD minus AAO divided by MJO" frown
what does hybridised mean when people in past have already split the ENSO indicators into different "breeds"....
.... maybe it is the nino / nina concept that is flawed... food for thought


agreed, for my part i think too much focus is put on enso state when it is obviously driven and influenced by several of the other TLA's (iod, pdo, sam, pna, eac, etc... smile )

some of these climate cycles run for decades and even longer. nino is a short term cycle in my mind and while obviously useful some of these other influences deserve more focus and recognition, rather than diluting the enso definitions further.

my opinion as a novice anyway.

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#1490330 - 14/02/2019 10:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Flowin]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Flowin
"....... but maybe the nino vs nina concept is flawed.


I'm thinking that it is a measuring tool that works less accurately than we all thought.

At least for Australia, or maybe we should never even specify "Australia" in terms of rainfall variation, is it just too big to generalize?

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#1490331 - 14/02/2019 11:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
The monthly and seasonal climate outlook from BoM has been updated again today. I won't mention about the climate influences as others on this forum could do it better than me.

But I will pose a challenging question.
If one goes to the BoM webpage for rainfall outlook for the chances of exceeding median rainfall it brings up the usual coloured map of Australia and colour legend. This has the chance from brown very low chance to deep blue very high chance of exceeding median rainfall. All good it tells us based on historical median rainfall (1990 to 2012) for those months what is the BoM seasonal outlook model indication of chance of above or below that historical median rainfall for the relevant month or season of the year.


On the bottom left of that map there is button with different layers that can turned on and off. Click that button and you will see a layer called ocean mask. Turn that layer off and the colour shading for chance of exceeding rainfall extends out over ocean areas.
So BoM’s seasonal outlook model ACCESS S model can produce seasonal estimates of rainfall over the oceans. But how do they assess chance of exceeding median rainfall over the oceans – there are practically no gauges over vast areas of the ocean? What data set is used to define historical median rainfall over the ocean ?
I can only assume that it may be based on some climate reanalysis product. If the historical median rainfall over the ocean is based on some climate reanalysis product, then that is different to the historical median rainfall over the land that is based on the AWAP (Australian Water Availability Project). So we would expect a potential discontinuity may be possible at the coastline. It does seem to be a bit of a mystery that the seasonal outlook can show chance of exceeding median rainfall over the ocean.

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#1490336 - 14/02/2019 11:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: snowbooby]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: snowbooby


...only speculation as I dont have any source of evidence but wondered if the strengthening of westerly anoms not only increasing zonal advection of ssta's but also reducing upwelling (in the east) stabilising and stratifying the mixed layer which tends to shoal and is subject to increased net affect of direct solar radiation, perhaps more than offsetting the evaporative cooling affect...


This is exactly what happens.

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#1490338 - 14/02/2019 11:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Flowin]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Flowin
The monthly and seasonal climate outlook from BoM has been updated again today. I won't mention about the climate influences as others on this forum could do it better than me.

But I will pose a challenging question.
If one goes to the BoM webpage for rainfall outlook for the chances of exceeding median rainfall it brings up the usual coloured map of Australia and colour legend. This has the chance from brown very low chance to deep blue very high chance of exceeding median rainfall. All good it tells us based on historical median rainfall (1990 to 2012) for those months what is the BoM seasonal outlook model indication of chance of above or below that historical median rainfall for the relevant month or season of the year.


On the bottom left of that map there is button with different layers that can turned on and off. Click that button and you will see a layer called ocean mask. Turn that layer off and the colour shading for chance of exceeding rainfall extends out over ocean areas.
So BoM’s seasonal outlook model ACCESS S model can produce seasonal estimates of rainfall over the oceans. But how do they assess chance of exceeding median rainfall over the oceans – there are practically no gauges over vast areas of the ocean? What data set is used to define historical median rainfall over the ocean ?
I can only assume that it may be based on some climate reanalysis product. If the historical median rainfall over the ocean is based on some climate reanalysis product, then that is different to the historical median rainfall over the land that is based on the AWAP (Australian Water Availability Project). So we would expect a potential discontinuity may be possible at the coastline. It does seem to be a bit of a mystery that the seasonal outlook can show chance of exceeding median rainfall over the ocean.


Outlook is based on the Access C model. Used to be POAMA. They could calculate medians based on model output, or on observations. Hopefully if the model is calibrated correctly both should be pretty much the same, and for areas were observations are lacking they can use the model output. There are satellite monitoring products that measure rainfall over the ocean, not sure how accurate they are.

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#1490351 - 14/02/2019 13:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Mike I think you mean ACCESS S model.
I don't know if they could calculate medians from the model output. My understanding is that the reference period for median rainfall over land is 1990 to 2012 AWAP data.
I doubt (but do not know for sure) that the routine seasonal updates (re-runs of the ACCESS S model) would give the output for 1990 to 2012 period sufficiently calibrated (to what data could be used anyway) to use as a reference for median 1990 to 2012 rainfall over the ocean.

I have looked at Satellite rainfall estimation products for a while. They are useful to get a feel for rainfall over the ocean where there are no gauges but they do not appear to be very accurate. I looked at the recent Townsville late Jan early Feb heavy rainfall period and the 7 days totals estimated from satellite methods were much less than the actual totals. You can access the Satellite estimates of rainfall for past periods here: https://pmm.nasa.gov/precip-apps

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#1490352 - 14/02/2019 13:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2583
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Is this large burst of westerly wind going to be borderline south of the area that brings on Kelvin waves?

I was reading another forum that are going on and on about it, but a stormsurf chart seems to indicate it will barely get in the Kelvin wave generation region.

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#1490355 - 14/02/2019 14:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Forecast shows extensive westerly anomalies through Kelvin wave generation region. Some Stormsurf charts are not updating, and the forecast chart showing westerlies mostly south of Kelvin wave generation region is over one week old.

And yes Flowin I meant Access S.


Edited by Mike Hauber (14/02/2019 14:09)

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#1490367 - 14/02/2019 16:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7764
Loc: Adelaide Hills
If you do know what is happening to our society, look at your local weather station very carefully!!!!! smile


Edited by Sein (14/02/2019 16:13)

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#1490373 - 14/02/2019 16:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7764
Loc: Adelaide Hills
If the following is too long so be it smile smile !!!!!

Background Theory to Understanding the Model, Summary: Year 2001-2019
Originally created: 26th of February 2017

Adelaide weather conditions have tended to become more humid, since about the end of the 20th century. Part of this is due to effects of increasing levels of carbon dioxide [CO2] in the lower troposphere and stratosphere, and the consequences of these for variations in water-vapour.

The gas form of CO2 is a linear-shaped air molecule with four [4] covalent -- shared -- electron bonds between two [2] oxygen atoms, and a central carbon atom.
All air molecules that have or can have a permanent or temporary electric dipole moment are capable of absorbing infrared [IR] electromagnetic [EM] radiation.

As gaseous CO2 is intrinsically linearly-shaped, it does not have a permanent electric dipole moment. However, when it absorbs IR EM radiation from the Earth, CO2 experiences bending and stretching of its internal molecular bonds. This bending and stretching of bonds is known as a vibrational mode, and happens in particular IR EM radiation wavelength bands.

Both bending and stretching vibrational modes must be asymmetric for there to a change in the electric dipole moment, and subsequent absorption of IR EM radiation. Asymmetry can be achieved when bending and stretching is not centralised around the carbon atom.

Thus, IR wavelength EM radiation bands must produce asymmetry upon interacting with the CO2 gas. IR EM radiation with wavelengths peaking at about 15 [15.5 to 16.5 microns] and about 4.3 microns respectively produces the bending and stretching IR vibrational modes for CO2.

IR EM radiation is of terrestrial origin; from the Earth's surface. Therefore, it has longer wavelengths [in microns] and a less-intense wavelength integration [total EM emitted over total terrestrial IR spectrum] than radiation with a higher frequency.

Higher-frequency radiation includes sunlight, x-rays, uv-rays, gamma rays or cosmic rays. There is less energy emitted [in Watts per square metre per micron] in the IR spectrum than in the visible spectrum, between approximately 0.7 and 0.4 microns.

As the gas form of water -- water-vapour -- is an oxygen atom with two [2] covalent hydrogen bonds, the molecule has a V-shape. The hydrogen atoms are drawn closer together because the single covalent bonds lead to instability in molecular form. In nature hydrogen is stable as the H2 molecules, while helium is a noble gas.

Thus, H2O has a permanent electrostatic polarisation, the oxygen atom being the negative end; the hydrogen atoms the positive. When H2O molecules encounter other H2O molecules, they can align electro-statically. The phase -- solid, liquid or gas -- in which they align is temperature-dependent.

Two [2] other major differences between vapour forms of CO2 and H2O molecules: they have different atomic masses relative to the mean air mass, and CO2 cannot condense in the troposphere, while H2O can.

CO2 has an atomic weight (relative to the 28 units average for air at sea-level pressure), of 44 units, which means it is heavier than air. In comparison, water-vapour is about 18 units, which means it's lighter than air. Therefore, overall, H2O is more buoyant than CO2 in the troposphere.

The differences in atomic masses and abilities to condense in the troposphere -- between CO2 and H2O -- mean that CO2 can influence the surface air temperature, without condensing, which will influence the behaviour of H2O.

As the temperature increases at the surface -- due to IR EM radiation absorption by CO2, the amount of water-vapour the air can retain changes (on average, increases), which is why the surface temperature changes. This happens in a day-by-day loop. The capability of the weather layer (troposphere) to retain water-vapour is temperature-dependent. This is called the Clausius-Clapeyron Equality. This summary is an extension of that theory.

Water-vapour gets into the air (lower troposphere) by evaporation (water to steam), transpiration (photosynthesis) and sublimation (ice to steam). Latent-heat is the energy required to change a given mass of material from one state (solid, liquid or gas) to another. Water molecules absorb external heat -- sunlight -- when they become liquid (from ice), or steam (from liquid), and release it when they become liquid (from steam) or ice (from liquid).

More latent-heat is gained from the air in sublimation because ice crystals evaporate directly, and change in phase twice. When latent-heat (at the altitude clouds form) condenses on cloud-forming particles, more energy is lost to the atmosphere surrounding clouds, bringing the immediate environment (near clouds) towards a temperature equilibrium (cloud temperature falls, that of the surrounding air rises). This continues further up into the troposphere until rising thermal air currents cool to the temperature of the air surrounding them, at which point they no longer rise.

Clouds block sunlight from reaching the surface to varying degrees. The deeper clouds are (their optical depth) the more sunlight is reflected. Sunlight is the highest-intensity (frequency) radiation from the Sun to reach the Earth's surface (per micrometre, or micron). A micron is 0.000001 metres, a bandwidth in the energy spectrum. This means different parts of the energy (electric and magnetic) spectrum have different properties (which have either visible or invisible effects), which can be measured. The greater the frequency of EM radiation, the more impact it can have on air molecules behaviour.

Thus, regardless of what is beneath cloud formations, energy will be lost to space or higher-atmospheric levels (stratosphere, mesosphere, and so on), and not reach the ground or sea, if they are absent. The atmosphere (all of it, from space to the surface) is very transparent to incoming light (it travels straight through it), hence light is mostly unblemished in intensity when it reaches the surface.

Sunlight has the energy required (and available) to break water-molecule bonds (on the ground/in the sea) to help evaporation along. The energy per unit micron in sunlight is far greater than per micron in infrared radiation (different part of the energy spectrum), which comes from the Earth. Thus, evaporation is not possible without sunlight – water must first be boiled before it can leave the Earth’s surface as steam. Non-water-vapour molecules (that can also absorb heat) can absorb and emit infrared heat between each other, and with water-vapour, however the energy they emit will not be enough (per micron) to break water-molecule bonds. As water-vapour mostly resides in the troposphere, the absorbed and emitted heat must also reside here to break these bonds. All heat-absorbing gases contribute to the air (troposphere) temperature, however only water droplets (in clouds) and cloud forming particles can affect the amount of sunlight reaching the surface.

Of heat-absorbing gases in the troposphere, only water-vapour condenses under current atmospheric conditions. This means all other IR heat-absorbing gases cannot naturally change phase (from solid to liquid or gas) in the air, no matter how much the temperature changes. Thus, if the air temperature increases with more non-condensers added, this will mean more water-molecule bonds will break away, because more heat is added to the system, with the same amount of incoming sunlight. The addition of any gas that can absorb heat (from any source) to the troposphere will increase its temperature. On the other hand, as more thermals form clouds, or deeper clouds, these will lead the temperature to fall more (beneath them). Therefore, the gap between high and low day-time and night-time temperatures -- the diurnal temperature range -- will increase, because the expansion and shrinking of the atmosphere (pressure and density) is temperature-dependent, as is the water-vapour retaining ability. Cloud-cover changes thus have a major impact on ocean and atmospheric heat storage.

The atmosphere can only retain so much heat because air has a finite heat capacity and volume, so whatever is stored in the atmosphere as heat will eventually be emitted back to space.

Clouds can also prevent (more-so over open water) air from heating up a lot because they reflect the high-intensity light from the Sun away from the surface. This means there can be big differences in air temperatures (near the surface) across land areas, and the sea. Water-vapour thus can help regulate the temperature of the atmosphere through the Clausius-Clapeyron Equality.

References

Jacob. J. (1999) Introduction to Atmospheric Chemistry. Princeton University Press. pp. 119-120. [Understanding Atmospheroc Molecular Science.]

Douglas C. Giancoli. (2000) Physics for Scientists and Engineers – With Modern Physics, 3rd Edition, US Prentice Hall. [For understanding the science.]

William J. Burroughs, Bob Crowder, Ted Robertson, Eleanor Vallier-Talbot, Richard Whitaker. (1996) Weather, US Weldon Owen Inc. [For understanding fundamental weather concepts.]


Edited by Sein (14/02/2019 16:20)

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#1490443 - 15/02/2019 03:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2268
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
So basically water vapour absorbs way more IR heat than CO2 ever can right ? Also you introduce a factor that is not recognized under the current dogma and that is electro magnetism and the effects so far unrecognized under the current regime of only TSI coming into the equation of climatic effects. UV effects on Ozone and concurrent climatic effects that are so far unaccounted for under the current human only effects of climate change looked for under the IPCC regime.
People need to understand that for all the supposed Science that is quoted by the IPCC, their only mandate is to look for Human Induced climate change and NOTHING ELSE... No other Science is ever looked into as an alternate cause. IE the only cause they can possibly find is a Human Induced one...

I'm not joking, go take a look at their Mandate.

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#1490448 - 15/02/2019 07:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: marakai]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2649
marakai said "No other Science is ever looked into as an alternate cause."

That's not true. From this IPCC report it says:

More than half of the observed increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) from 1951 to 2010 is very likely due to the observed anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. The consistency of observed and modeled changes across the climate system, including warming of the atmosphere and ocean, sea level rise, ocean acidification and changes in the water cycle, the cryosphere and climate extremes points to a large-scale warming resulting primarily from anthropogenic increases in GHG concentrations.

Solar forcing is the only known natural forcing acting to warm the climate over this period but it has increased much less than GHG forcing, and the observed pattern of long-term tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling is not consistent with the expected response to solar irradiance variations.

The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) could be a confounding influence but studies that find a significant role for the AMO show that this does not project strongly onto 1951–2010 temperature trends.

There you have it, the IPPC does in fact look at natural climate drivers.

So marakai, go take a look at their Mandate.

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter10_FINAL.pdf

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
_________________________

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#1490449 - 15/02/2019 07:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2268
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
And of Solar forcing the only factor taken into account is TSI as stated above.

WMO and the United Nations Environment Programme established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The role of the IPCC is to assess, on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis, the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate-related data or other relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature.

http://www.wmo.int/pages/summary/cosponsored_summary_en.html

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#1490450 - 15/02/2019 08:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
bartholomu Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2011
Posts: 101
One very large volcanic eruption makes all the discussion mute, planet earth will dish out an extinction level event again as it has repeatedly over millions of years, we humans are a mere blip in time. Human population is the elephant in the room for all the problems our planet has, Enjoy life because unless some magical global population control is ever agreed to we are all heading to the same end period.

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#1490455 - 15/02/2019 08:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 15018
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
I'd be worried about water vapour a hell of a lot more than any CO2 when it comes to warming of this planet that is for sure, especially at the levels they are right now which is very, very small but that is for another thread....

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (15/02/2019 08:36)

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#1490465 - 15/02/2019 11:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
According to NCEP El Nino formed in January, and el nino like atmospheric conditions existed in January.

Quote:
El Niño conditions formed during January 2019

Quote:
Compared to last month, the region of enhanced equatorial convection expanded near the Date Line,
while anomalies remained weak over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Low-level wind anomalies became westerly
across the western Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the
eastern Pacific. The equatorial Southern Oscillation index was negative (-0.6 standard deviations).
Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Niño conditions


(compared to last month. That is during January compared to Dec)

NCEP uses lower thresholds than BOM, so no surprise that NCEP declares el nino when BOM doesn't. But NCEP recognise that atmospheric conditions have been weakly el nino like, implying that the atmosphere has responded pretty much as expected to the weakly el nino like SSTs that have been present.

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#1490470 - 15/02/2019 12:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: marakai]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: marakai
And of Solar forcing the only factor taken into account is TSI as stated above.

WMO and the United Nations Environment Programme established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The role of the IPCC is to assess, on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis, the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate-related data or other relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature.

http://www.wmo.int/pages/summary/cosponsored_summary_en.html


Game Set and Match to Maraki.

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#1490471 - 15/02/2019 12:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
According to NCEP El Nino formed in January, and el nino like atmospheric conditions existed in January.

Quote:
El Niño conditions formed during January 2019

Quote:
Compared to last month, the region of enhanced equatorial convection expanded near the Date Line,
while anomalies remained weak over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Low-level wind anomalies became westerly
across the western Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the
eastern Pacific. The equatorial Southern Oscillation index was negative (-0.6 standard deviations).
Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Niño conditions


(compared to last month. That is during January compared to Dec)

NCEP uses lower thresholds than BOM, so no surprise that NCEP declares el nino when BOM doesn't. But NCEP recognise that atmospheric conditions have been weakly el nino like, implying that the atmosphere has responded pretty much as expected to the weakly el nino like SSTs that have been present.


So Mike, it hasnt been a modaki event these past few months after all?

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#1490472 - 15/02/2019 12:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Despite the trades being in Doldrums around the Kelvin Wave generation zone, which I understand is a clear westerly anomaly, the Pacific remains clear of significant tropical cloud except in the Western half of Nino.4, as it has been for months now.

Trades are back to typical at Nino1.2 through to Nino.4, and are progosed to remain that way for several days more. Which I reckon will continue to hold NIno1.2 SST cool (or cool further as cool subsurface waters very close to the surface there atm), ....and retain the present temp in Nino.3

I would say El Nino watch status remains a fair call, but this ENSO neutral state will remain for at least another week before we can call either a continuation of the present state, or a drift to Nino. For me a look at the SatIR image in 7 days time should be the best hint at which way the climate is heading.

Mike - re weak El Nino right now - is it possible for the northern hemisphere to have a weak El Nino while the southern half remains neutral? (that is not a loaded question, I dont know).

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#1490474 - 15/02/2019 12:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Petros


So Mike, it hasnt been a modaki event these past few months after all?


It has been very much a modoki event.

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#1490478 - 15/02/2019 14:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
According to NCEP El Nino formed in January, and el nino like atmospheric conditions existed in January.

Quote:
El Niño conditions formed during January 2019

Quote:
Compared to last month, the region of enhanced equatorial convection expanded near the Date Line,
while anomalies remained weak over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Low-level wind anomalies became westerly
across the western Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the
eastern Pacific. The equatorial Southern Oscillation index was negative (-0.6 standard deviations).
Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Niño conditions


(compared to last month. That is during January compared to Dec)

NCEP uses lower thresholds than BOM, so no surprise that NCEP declares el nino when BOM doesn't. But NCEP recognise that atmospheric conditions have been weakly el nino like, implying that the atmosphere has responded pretty much as expected to the weakly el nino like SSTs that have been present.


Doesn't that say "El Nino like conditions" and not an El Nino has formed? Big difference I would have thought.

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#1490479 - 15/02/2019 14:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
one drop Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/04/2014
Posts: 112
Loc: maryborough
no, it says "el nino conditions".
and acknowledges "borderline, weak el nino conditions"

it's not a binary on off switch.

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#1490481 - 15/02/2019 14:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
If El nino conditions last long enough then it is recognised as an official el nino event. If they do not last long enough then no event is recognised. If the conditions last long enough for an event to be recognised, then obviously the point at which the event formed is when el nino conditions were first in place.

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#1490487 - 15/02/2019 16:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 892
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
I wonder if this track be different if SAM had stayed positive?

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#1490515 - 15/02/2019 17:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: one drop]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: one drop
no, it says "el nino conditions".
and acknowledges "borderline, weak el nino conditions"

it's not a binary on off switch.


You are referring to NCEP? - or BOM?

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#1490525 - 15/02/2019 18:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2539
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
I wonder if this track be different if SAM had stayed positive?


Really good point. I'd say yes as it's only the trough that could send it to the graveyard. Continued ridging would have almost guaranteed QLD landfall.

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#1490532 - 15/02/2019 18:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
NF - Boo for the Quidge (in this rare instance). Cards continually stacked up against rain for the larger SE of Aus for so long now.

IF - we don't tend towards El Nino-like conditions over the next week, ....then long term statistics (no reference to current climatic condition indicators at all - they have not helped any of our predictions over the past year I reckon), would tend to favor flood after drought?

Apologies to those in N central QLD who are experiencing the aftermath of a whopper.

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#1490654 - 16/02/2019 23:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Side note...interesting article in the Australian today about the BoM & it’s homogenisation activities..l

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#1490660 - 17/02/2019 06:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 892
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Hahahaha!

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#1490679 - 17/02/2019 11:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Pacific EQ trades though the Nino regions look to very weak by this time next week. MJO looking to keep away from Aus for next week or two. Looking more Nino like every day of late.

If there is to be an Autumn break for parts of Aus, .....it wont be an early one?


Edited by Petros (17/02/2019 11:57)

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#1490689 - 17/02/2019 13:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
Yeah, the BOM do an awesome job. In another life I studied meteorology and got a job there.

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#1490720 - 17/02/2019 18:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Well done Delta-T, geez the Aus tropic's is running with a near-flat battery given we are just entering the 2nd half of February!:


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#1490750 - 17/02/2019 20:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 178
Loc: Peachester
Hmm, better clarify that...
In a parallel universe that happened.

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#1490777 - 18/02/2019 00:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2268
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Hmm, better clarify that...
In a parallel universe that happened.


Wouldn't bother clarifying M8, half the population live there anyway.

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#1490789 - 18/02/2019 08:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2583
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
That WWB does not seem to be as strong as what was predicted.

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#1490797 - 18/02/2019 10:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Probably about as strong as the moderate WWB EC predicted, but weaker than extreme WWB GFS predicted.

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#1490802 - 18/02/2019 11:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
It's going to have to rain damned hard across the Northern Territory over the next 10 days to meet Modoki those requirements we were told to watch for.



_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1490803 - 18/02/2019 12:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I have to agree with others about the last WWB not really living up to its full potential. Even Mick Ventrice mentioned the same thing on his Twitter a while ago.

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#1491074 - 19/02/2019 17:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Typicaly Modoki impact in February is an intensified monsoon with heavier rains in NT and western Qld. Impact of this Modoki event for February has been an intensified monsoon with heavier rains in Western Qld and eastern Qld, with below average rainfall in Northern Territory.

The prime mechanism of Modoki impact on Australian rainfall is intensified westerly winds over the north of Australia which enhance the monsoon. Impacts are strongest in NT and western Qld due to convergence with SEs from the subtropical ridge over SW Pacific.

Typical circulation during a Modoki event:



From January through to mid February we have seen enhanced westerlies over north Australia just as expected with Modoki.



The arrow marks the characteristic circulation anomaly, which is also the same circulation anomaly driven by the Ningaloo Nina, which has also been clearly evident.

Marked by the oval is a weak area of southerly wind, and towards the north of this region is a region where the westerly flow is substantially weakened. This seems to correspond to the area in NT which failed to receive rain from the enhanced monsoon.

Perhaps this area was caused by the strong low pressure over North Qld which pushed southerlies on the western flank. Or perhaps this area pushed drier air into the NT region, delaying the development of heavy convection in the westerly flow until further east and is the reason why the low pressure/convection etc was strongest over Qld.

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#1491086 - 19/02/2019 17:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Generally the WWB is not as strong as GFS suggested it might be, however the current chart does have some impressively strong westerlies near 160E.



I am puzzled as to why the current WWB is not able to drive more of the subsurface warm anomalies from the SH to the equator.

While not exceptionally strong the current WWB looks to be quite long lived, running onto the end of the January event, and with no end in sight in current short range forecasts.



It seems that despite the signficant westerly activity the western warm pool is doing little more than holding its own. Presumably some mechanism of el nino decay typical during the early part of the year is still in play.

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#1491587 - 20/02/2019 22:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
GFS extended has now been forecasting a return to normal trade winds in the Western Pacific towards the second part of week 2. One of the runs was quite strong with potential for significant cooling, but last couple runs have backed off a bit. MJO is forecast to end a fairly long period in the el nino favourable half and start into the La Nina favourable Indian ocean phases about this time.

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#1491825 - 21/02/2019 18:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Just looked at the SatIR for Indian and Pacific oceans. Cannot believe how cloud free the equator zone is across both oceans right now.

Can only assume that MJO is null?

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#1492003 - 22/02/2019 12:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The MJO after spending a lot of time at phase 8 has kicked the SOI sharply negative. But the MJO models have a consensus that the MJO will resume strongly in the Indian Ocean in about 3 weeks time.

The cool water below Nino1.2 looks set to surface over coming days IMO. But trades being weak out that way, might mean the cool waters wont flow towards Nino.3, hence no (or minimal) impact on the El Nino-like set up that seems to have been developing over the past 2 weeks.

Closer to home TC Oma has cooled the Pacific out E of the Sunshine Coast at 160E down to 25C. You would think Oma would tend to steer northwards over warmer water if it isnt set to fizzle?

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#1492327 - 24/02/2019 11:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
EQ Pacific is cloud free except through the Nino.4 zone (ENSO neutral zone), but tropical activity is picking up in the Indian Ocean going by the latest SatIR image.

The MJO has been more dominant than the warm waters in Nino.4/Nino3.4 for Australia's tropical climate for several months now. Last 3 weeks of March will be interesting to see if any rain events can make it down into the dry regions (if the AAO joins into the game).

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#1492329 - 24/02/2019 11:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Going to need to be a strong serious MJO given it’s practically March and we’re already seeing a more zonal pattern establishing which would confine any real drivers to far northern Aus.

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#1492331 - 24/02/2019 12:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2583
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld


I am wondering is weak El Nino's/warm neutrals have a far greater impact on Queensland summer rainfall then strong El Nino's.

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#1492332 - 24/02/2019 12:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: RC]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: RC


I am wondering is weak El Nino's/warm neutrals have a far greater impact on Queensland summer rainfall then strong El Nino's.


I’d agree and I suspect it’s because there’s no dominant pattern - whereas with strong responses the swing back tends to be strong as well.


Edited by Kino (24/02/2019 12:18)

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#1492342 - 24/02/2019 13:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
82 / 83 debunks that. Though I do agree there is nothing driving things at the moment.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1492382 - 24/02/2019 18:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Agree all. Hanging out hoping the next MJO passage not only delivers rain for some, but moreso, initiates some kind of reset to this Aus rain-unfriendly climatic set up we've been exposed to for so bloody long. frown

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#1492406 - 24/02/2019 21:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2583
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Be interesting to see if there are any effects from the westerly wind burst.

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#1492408 - 24/02/2019 21:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
82 / 83 debunks that. Though I do agree there is nothing driving things at the moment.


With respect, one season doesn’t debunk it - could be an outlier etc.

Look at 96/97 mega Niño straight into the mega 98/99 Nina.

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#1492410 - 24/02/2019 21:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
The comment suggested warm neutral has a stronger impact than strong nino. 82/83 shows that's not always the case. I doubt the warm neutral is the issue but rarther how far west the warming extends. There is no troughing from WA whatsoever . I posted up an article a while back about the Indian Ocean impact on 2018. I still suspect it's the issue . I also read a paper recently that conditions in the Eastern Indian Ocean are not exclusively tied to ENSO as some have claimed (ningaloo).
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1492412 - 24/02/2019 22:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
The comment suggested warm neutral has a stronger impact than strong nino. 82/83 shows that's not always the case. I doubt the warm neutral is the issue but rarther how far west the warming extends. There is no troughing from WA whatsoever . I posted up an article a while back about the Indian Ocean impact on 2018. I still suspect it's the issue . I also read a paper recently that conditions in the Eastern Indian Ocean are not exclusively tied to ENSO as some have claimed (ningaloo).


Ahhhhh my bad, ok thanks.

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#1492419 - 25/02/2019 08:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I also read a paper recently that conditions in the Eastern Indian Ocean are not exclusively tied to ENSO as some have claimed (ningaloo).


Pretty sure no one has claimed that. There is obviously an influence, probably both directions.

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#1492427 - 25/02/2019 09:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Current WWB is clearly moving the warmest water further east. However overall surface warmth is close to steady - so we may see cooling as the MJO swings around to La Nina friendly zones. There also appears to be some westerly activity in the far east. Trade winds in this region are usually weakly opposite to the general ENSO trend, and anomalies are usually much weaker than west and central regions.



What is also noticeable is that there seems to be significant upwelling occurring along the equator. This can be seen as the subsurface warm pool is becoming largely split north and south of the equator through the central Pacific. Cool subsurface is more dominant in the far east. In the far west there seems to be some downwelling, but focused a little south of the equator and not particularly strong. I can't see any reason why there should be upwelling.



CFS has had a substantial change in its forecast and now wants a moderate el nino to build through the year. Looking at details it seems to think that westerly activity will be quite strong through March and April. Current short term forecasts and MJO suggests trades will return to near normal at the start of March. Last MJO passage through the La Nina zones was quite quick and a repeat might see the CFS forecast validate if westerlies are strong later in March.



CFS is however a noteable outlier with most models forecasting not much to happen for the rest of the year, although it was more consistent with other model forecasts before this WWB occurred. It will be interesting to see if the next updates from other models follow CFS or not.


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#1492429 - 25/02/2019 09:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
The comment suggested warm neutral has a stronger impact than strong nino. 82/83 shows that's not always the case. I doubt the warm neutral is the issue but rarther how far west the warming extends. There is no troughing from WA whatsoever . I posted up an article a while back about the Indian Ocean impact on 2018. I still suspect it's the issue . I also read a paper recently that conditions in the Eastern Indian Ocean are not exclusively tied to ENSO as some have claimed (ningaloo).


Ahhhhh my bad, ok thanks.


No worries Kino. From my observation only and nothing concrete I also believe thunderstorm activity is better during warm neutral Summers in Qld but that hasn't been the case much of this one. There is simply no moisture coming across from the west.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1492433 - 25/02/2019 10:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
MJO model consensus shows the next MJO pulse through to Indonesia to be a strong one mid next week. Still too early to make a call on how long it will linger around for.

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#1492434 - 25/02/2019 11:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
Ventrice is exited about it. I think we need a proper defined ElNino to bust this mundane climate pattern .
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1492436 - 25/02/2019 11:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep, the SST at MJO zone 3 is about the hottest in the world at the moment, ...and tending warmer than cooler last week or so.

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#1492447 - 25/02/2019 15:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2583
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Ventrice is exited about it. I think we need a proper defined ElNino to bust this mundane climate pattern .


The super El Nino we had a couple of years ago never burst anything. Never had a big La Nina follow it. In fact it has overall been dryish before the super El Nino and after it.

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#1492459 - 25/02/2019 17:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
Yes that is true. But as been discussed here numerous times, there is something bigger than ENSO at play at the moment.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1492464 - 25/02/2019 17:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8798
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
The strong la nina burst into that 'super' el nino, so unlikely you'd get another big La nina to follow after the record 2010-2012 event. The current state will most likely transition to neutral, but be a while before there's another strong La nina.

A mass of storms forming over the eastern inland atm, probably helped by extra moisture from the flood waters. SST's are still significantly high over the Tasman and increasing to the NW of the country. This is the first time in a while that strong highs have settled to the S of the country, finally sending moisture inland where needed.

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#1492491 - 25/02/2019 21:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
I'm not sure why anyone managed to get a mention of strong LaNina out of my post.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1492496 - 26/02/2019 00:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Thought I'd just leave this here. Tweet from @philklotzbach: Supertyphoon #Wutip now has max winds of 160 mph - making it the strongest February #typhoon on record (since 1950). Previous record was Higos in 2015 at 150 mph.

https://t.co/h2E7y2y1or

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#1492497 - 26/02/2019 04:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
weatherhobbiest Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/12/2018
Posts: 56
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Yes that is true. But as been discussed here numerous times, there is something bigger than ENSO at play at the moment.


Does anyone have any ideas as to what that something might be?

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#1492499 - 26/02/2019 08:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
It is notable that AAO has dropped from +2 to -2.5 in a 14 day period. Such large fluctuations within a 14 day period only happen every few years or so.

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#1492501 - 26/02/2019 08:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
GFS forecasting trades to surge over the next week. Extended GFS suggests trades will get stronger in the second week. EC is forecasting weaker trades, similar to previous passages of MJO through the La Nina side.



The forecast for Autumn is tricky. Typically Modoki impact is strongest in Autumn. However there is clearly some movement away from Modoki with western warm pool weakening and moving further east, and the far east continuing to warm despite unfavorable subsurface. Westerly anomalies moving into the central and east Pacific is more like a classic el nino, however this is clearly at least partly MJO related, and cloudiness anomalies seem to be anchored near the dateline.



A significant trade wind surge may put the pattern more into a classic el nino breakdown pattern which brings average to above average rainfall starting late summer/autumn.

I think the next couple weeks will be quite critical with an opportunity for a trade wind surge that might push things towards the cool side. If we get westerly dominance in March as monthly CFS forecasts then we are probably on the path towards a substantial el nino for the rest of the year.

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#1492517 - 26/02/2019 13:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Agree Mike, albiet a bit lukewarm on the modaki side of things.



Cant wait to see what happens with the MJO arrives at Indonesia.

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#1492519 - 26/02/2019 14:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7764
Loc: Adelaide Hills
#1490443 - 15/02/2019 03:47:

Originally Posted By: marakai
So basically water vapour absorbs way more IR heat than CO2 ever can right ?


My previous post was a hypothesis/theory (more-or-less with the loop closed)...and an extension of the Clausius-Clapeyron Theory. The mechanism mentioned is what gives water-vapour the opportunity (or ability) to form in the troposphere at a given ambient tropospheric temperature. The Clausius-Clapeyron equation, in layman's terms, states the saturation vapour-pressure increases proportionally -- indeed, exponentially -- with the ambient air temperature.

Enjoy smile ...


Edited by Seira (26/02/2019 15:06)

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#1492547 - 26/02/2019 20:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Proportionally ....indeed exponentially

Hmm

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#1492550 - 26/02/2019 21:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seina Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7764
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Proportionally because the saturation vapour-pressure is an exponential function of the air temperature, and the latent-heat of vaporisation is squared. Those details are can be found through research!

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#1492552 - 26/02/2019 21:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 722
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Given all this modoki talk this looks very consistent with an El Nino modoki as shown in the map above of OLR anomalies, NW Australia left high and dry when it should be monsoon season while West Pac is strongly in a negative anomaly. While West Coast America gets slammed by Atmospheric rivers.

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#1492567 - 27/02/2019 09:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
CPC shows a significant build of subsurface heat over the last month or so and a substantial warm Kelvin wave in progress.



TAO however seems to disagree.



TAO is obs, and CPC I believe is a mix of Obs and modelling. It would seem more likely the modelling has gone wrong. However the build up shown by CPC makes more sense given recent surface winds, presumably why the modelling shows it.

It is always possible that observations can be wrong, however it seems unlikely as this would require multiple buoys to be going wrong in the same direction at the same time.

I would assume the CPC data is used in the CFS prediction, currently predicting a moderate el nino in contrast to most other models, and that CFS may be inflating its forecast due to an overly warm estimate of the subsurface.

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#1492596 - 27/02/2019 18:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Mike its not the 200M/300M depth discrepancy?

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#1492599 - 27/02/2019 19:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
Well little is going to change in this graphic by 9.00am tomorrow so Jan and February failed to deliver a modoki response in the NT as per the green areas in the "modoki impact" map below . Where the green extends to the western Cape York coastal region it is just as dire.

The warmest anomalies in the western Pacific were further west last year (and even now) than where Jamstec located them in the central pacific in their original Modoki research so there is zero logic in suggesting the impact moved east. Partuclarly given there was little difference in the warmest ocean surface temps and much of the rest of the equator all the way to the coast of South Africa. Maybe it should be called the "modoki" modoki. It was similar to a modoki but not the same . Maybe jamstec could adopt that to avoid further confusion. But then when the cold water is missing either side of the warm pool it isn't even similar. El Mockery Modoki for sure. Perhaps BoM changed their guidelines due to how ridiculously abused the modoki definition has become?









Current ocean temps reflect the breakdown of warmer than average sea surface temps pushing west as expected in February, however it may be short lived with modelling suggesting a return to warmer than average equatorial surface temps this year. There is of course the predictability barrier to cross, but then the past few years even that has proved to be invalid.


Interesting tug of war near the thermocline.

_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1492621 - 27/02/2019 21:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Well little is going to change in this graphic by 9.00am tomorrow so Jan and February failed to deliver a modoki response in the NT as per the green areas in the "modoki impact" map below . Where the green extends to the western Cape York coastal region it is just as dire.


Modoki is not defined by its impact on NT rainfall. Note that the diagram shows substantial impact in western Qld which you chose to ignore. Also of note is that the impacts of an east based el nino this time of year are pretty much restricted to the far NE coast of Qld. So modoki half matches the rainfall patterns in Australia. East based doesn't match at all.

Atmospheric circulation anomalies for Australia where quite similar to what is expected in Modoki. Trade winds in Western Pacific were similar. Cloudiness anomalies were similar.


The warmest anomalies in the western Pacific were further west last year (and even now) than where Jamstec located them in the central pacific in their original Modoki research so there is zero logic in suggesting the impact moved east. [/quote]
Warmest anomalies are straddling the dateline and almost perfectly match the classic Modoki pattern of warmest anomalies straddling the dateline.



Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Partuclarly given there was little difference in the warmest ocean surface temps and much of the rest of the equator all the way to the coast of South Africa. Maybe it should be called the "modoki" modoki. It was similar to a modoki but not the same . Maybe jamstec could adopt that to avoid further confusion. But then when the cold water is missing either side of the warm pool it isn't even similar.


Same as every other year that has been classified as a Modoki (except for a couple months in 2004, and also a couple months earlier in this event when we had genuine cool anomalies in the west.

The only difference between current conditions and the typical modoki event is the area of warm water in the far east. So far the atmosphere shows little sign of responding to this warm water - westerly anomalies have shown some penetration into the central and east pacific which is east based el nino like over the last week or two, but cloudiness remains anchored modoki like near the dateline. Perhaps the east will continue to warm, and perhaps atmospheric indicators will show further progression towards an east based pattern. But so far modoki is clearly a much better match for current conditions than an east based el nino.

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#1492638 - 28/02/2019 08:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Rainfall during February 2005, 2004/2005 being the textbook modoki event.



During 2010 the rainfall anomalies were displaced somewhat further east similar to this year but not to the same extent.



What is interesting looking at rainfall in other Modoki years is that normally heavy rain in the tropics is accompanied by heavier rain further south, as in the 2010 case, whereas this year it was pure tropical.

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#1492641 - 28/02/2019 08:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Those rainfall maps are nothing alike. As well, the paper you posted previously relying on Modoki definition quite clearly shows above average rainfall response across the northern Tropical areas which simply hasn’t happened. Added to that the requirement for colder SST’s in Niño 1 which also didn’t happen.

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#1492642 - 28/02/2019 08:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7863
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
This has honestly turned into a d!ck measuring contest about who is right about "Modoki" more than an anything else. I've already said my piece on it and that is I personally do not think it fits the Modoki criteria. I just don't see the need to keep pushing and pushing.

Dunno why we can't just leave it at that.

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#1492647 - 28/02/2019 09:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Those rainfall maps are nothing alike.

The February rainfall pattern is clearly closer to the typical modoki pattern than 2004/2005, which was clearly a modoki year.


Quote:
Added to that the requirement for colder SST’s in Niño 1 which also didn’t happen.


Nino 1 and 2 have been +ve for the majority of past modoki events.


Edited by Mike Hauber (28/02/2019 09:14)

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#1492648 - 28/02/2019 09:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
Actually it's not Mega. I don't see his posts anymore. After his attacks on Ken Kato in the SEQ thread I decided to use the ignore option for the first time in years. What I do know is that I rate Ken Kato infinitely higher for credibility and knowledge along with BoM and NOAA. I can safely say those 3 knew BoM declared 2017 a LaNina year. None of them are trying to settle an old score either. The attacks on Ken's rainfall information smacked of envy at the level of respect held for Ken in that thread and were quite extraordinary. I suspect the people of Townsville would agree with Ken about the exceptional nature of the event. The response was embarrassing and entirely uncalled for.

It doesn't matter who the author is, when you sternly try to claim that what you are posting is fact with zero room for anyone else's differing opinion and yet your content continually contains words like " possibly , perhaps or maybe" to justify why it did happen the way you said it would then something is very much on the nose.

I do not have and never have had an agenda on climate or that for forbidden topic that goes with it and am personally sick of people trying to pass opinion as fact to bring one side or the other into the argument. I have an opinion like most people on the topic but it has never been shared here. It was banned for good reason.

My post is simply a response to the outcome of Summer and mischievous claims made last year. In December when there was some similarity on rainfall patterns over the NT it was jumped on as proof of the existence of Modoki impact with the maps above rolled out quick smart. January and February share no resemblance whatsoever . There was no " short and intense" monsoon over Darwin.

The ningaloo nina and associated blocking pattern will come under much more scrutiny from global agencies than the pacific regarding the 2018 climate outcome, coupled with its positive IOD. Even when BoM released an article regarding the Indian Ocean's impact on our climate in 2018 it was dismissed by Mike along with several periodic remarks on lack of coupling requirement to meet ENSO standard. At some point you have to say enough is enough .

Moving on, it is ironic that the rebound that typically begins to occur in Summer has seen the SOI head the wrong way. Finally something resembling an atmospheric response about 6 months out of whack. 2019 will be interesting.

_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1492649 - 28/02/2019 09:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Part of the problem here is also people looking at the data and trying to claim the season, month, or current situation with drivers fits with pre-conceived "status of climate" from past research of limited occurrences. It is all very complex. Their needs to be more open mindedness that sometimes current climate does not fit human created ideas of the climate drivers being in distinct status or labels.

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#1492650 - 28/02/2019 09:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Flowin]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Part of the problem here is also people looking at the data and trying to claim the season, month, or current situation with drivers fits with pre-conceived "status of climate" from past research of limited occurrences. It is all very complex. Their needs to be more open mindedness that sometimes current climate does not fit human created ideas of the climate drivers being in distinct status or labels.


Amen to that. This has been the position of most here I feel. Whereas one or two try to squeeze current events into existing rules where there are no set rules. It's climate and therefore it is chaos. It is entitled to NOT conform.

The lack of ElNino last year proved that it is not just about WWB's and the excuses about there not being enough were ridiculous. The warming extending along the equator all the way to Africa was ignored out of hand because it did not fit the rules. The fact that there was barely half a degree difference between the western and central pacific was never factored due to agenda yet ironically never did fit the rules regarding modoki
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1492651 - 28/02/2019 09:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3798
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
I suspect the people of Townsville would agree with Ken about the exceptional nature of the event. The response was embarrassing and entirely uncalled for.


I always agreed that the event in Townsville was exceptional. The issue was whether the event on a large scale was exceptional.

Originally Posted By: ColdFront

It doesn't matter who the author is, when you sternly try to claim that what you are posting is fact with zero room for anyone else's differing opinion and yet your content continually contains words like " possibly , perhaps or maybe" to justify why it did happen the way you said it would then something is very much on the nose.


Yes my words usually contain words like maybe or possibly. What is on the nose is your continued misrepresentation of what I post to claim certainty.

I do not have and never have had an agenda on climate or that for forbidden topic that goes with it and am personally sick of people trying to pass opinion as fact to bring one side or the other into the argument. I have an opinion like most people on the topic but it has never been shared here. It was banned for good reason.

Quote:
In December when there was some similarity on rainfall patterns over the NT it was jumped on as proof of the existence of Modoki impact with the maps above rolled out quick smart.


More like you jumped on the December rainfall pattern as proof of non-el nino, and I poinsted out there were similarities to a modoki pattern. Rainfall in Australia is not now and has never been proof of ENSO status.

Quote:
Even when BoM released an article regarding the Indian Ocean's impact on our climate in 2018 it was dismissed by Mike


When the media released a statement claiming that the BOM climate statement was that he Indian Ocean was the dominant factor I pointed out what was actually in the BOM climate statement, which said no such thing.

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#1492657 - 28/02/2019 12:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2979
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
CF, so you think there might be a link between the Ningaloo Nina and the blocking patter over the Tasman the past few summers?

I look forward to reading any studies those global agencies publish on this subject. It will be interesting to see if the same pattern emerges again next Nov/Dec, surely odds would be against it happening 4 summers on the trot!
_________________________
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#1492660 - 28/02/2019 12:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8026
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Rainfall during February 2005, 2004/2005 being the textbook modoki event.



During 2010 the rainfall anomalies were displaced somewhat further east similar to this year but not to the same extent.



What is interesting looking at rainfall in other Modoki years is that normally heavy rain in the tropics is accompanied by heavier rain further south, as in the 2010 case, whereas this year it was pure tropical.


With the record low rainfall event in Victoria still entrenched, going by those charts, we would love a text book modaki down this way!

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#1492661 - 28/02/2019 13:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CoastalStorm22]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19006
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
CF, so you think there might be a link between the Ningaloo Nina and the blocking patter over the Tasman the past few summers?

I look forward to reading any studies those global agencies publish on this subject. It will be interesting to see if the same pattern emerges again next Nov/Dec, surely odds would be against it happening 4 summers on the trot!


It would appear so CS. No push from the west. Hopefully you are right about odds.
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