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#1483770 - 02/01/2019 20:30 Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc)
ColdFront Offline
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A new year. Let's see what it brings .
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"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1483780 - 02/01/2019 21:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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Warm neutral til May and then we see where things are at.

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#1483782 - 02/01/2019 22:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mega Offline
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Originally Posted By: Kino
Warm neutral til May and then we see where things are at.


What he said.

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#1483784 - 02/01/2019 22:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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Yep. Hopefully a wetter year but you'd be brave to back it.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1483820 - 03/01/2019 10:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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WWB anomaly is evident at the Kelvin wave generation zone atm, supported by a couple of tropical storm systems below the zone and the MJO now departing Aus region.

SST today, not much to report except my perceived coastal warming off NW WA.

US models hold the MJO at in the Pacific, European varieties favour a return to the Indian.

I think, in the short term (week or two), Aus will have a persistent heat low/easterly dip situation that will allow QLD moisture to advect into the country's south east.,

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#1483821 - 03/01/2019 10:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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Generally it does look stormier for the next few weeks, but we shall see. If Penny can get her [censored] together and barrel sw like models thinks then we could see a very wet Jan.

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#1483825 - 03/01/2019 11:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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I don't see much change from the status quo in the next 10 days (for Sth East Qld region) unless EC's last run on Penny verifies. If it pushes back north like GFS and CMC have then it's back to more ridging and dry conditions.

Also ironically starting to see some hint of a more traditional ElNino surface pattern on NOAA's charts with the characteristic cooling across Torres Strait and the Coral Sea trying to emerge . A little late?
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1483829 - 03/01/2019 11:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Penny's moisture supply onto the continent and resulting rainfall is probably going to be a lot less than it could be. I have provided the EC forecast for crossing, combined with some crayon drawings of the ideal moisture flows, as would occur more often in a La Nina set up.



Stronger trade winds along the equator in the east would be diverted as NEs and feed into the low on the southern flank. The monsoon westerlies would be bent around the north side of the low to join this stream.

However with much warmer water out in the central Pacific we see a significant low pressure system out past New Caledonia. This is totally blocking the NE flow, and diverting a substantial portion of the NW flow into a Westerly wind burst and away from TC Penny.

The eastern flow further south, supported by the Tasman Sea High is still quite healthy.

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#1483844 - 03/01/2019 14:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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As I suspected, SSTs have continued to soar through the high pressure blocking region, no different to last year. That's two years in a row despite the Pacific being cold last year and warm this year. Something much closer to home in play here?


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#1483850 - 03/01/2019 14:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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Well they would given that high has been there for 4 months. Wish that warmer water was along the coast, itís damn frigid here - only 17c yest thanks to upwelling.

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#1483853 - 03/01/2019 15:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Online   content
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Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Penny's moisture supply onto the continent and resulting rainfall is probably going to be a lot less than it could be. I have provided the EC forecast for crossing, combined with some crayon drawings of the ideal moisture flows, as would occur more often in a La Nina set up.



Stronger trade winds along the equator in the east would be diverted as NEs and feed into the low on the southern flank. The monsoon westerlies would be bent around the north side of the low to join this stream.

However with much warmer water out in the central Pacific we see a significant low pressure system out past New Caledonia. This is totally blocking the NE flow, and diverting a substantial portion of the NW flow into a Westerly wind burst and away from TC Penny.

The eastern flow further south, supported by the Tasman Sea High is still quite healthy.


Looks fine....healthy NE indeed.


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#1483855 - 03/01/2019 15:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
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Totally blocking the NE flow? Don't think so, plenty of fuel should be dragged into that system despite the other low.

It may seem a bit cut off for now, but the supply will become healthier the longer Penny stays out there https://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shwvgms.html

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#1483856 - 03/01/2019 15:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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Yeah Iím not sure why anyone would use an 850hpa wind model chart to show moisture movement into a TC...when itís all surface based. 🙄🙄 TCís rely on surface moisture not mid level moisture.


Edited by Kino (03/01/2019 15:21)

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#1483857 - 03/01/2019 15:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
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Technically they do need moisture in all levels, otherwise if too much dry air enters at 850hp it can deprive the system. However, the moisture source from the NW (at that particular level) should be sufficient and act as a fuel source as it moves back toward the coast. To say there's a total block of the NE flow is a bit silly.

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#1483859 - 03/01/2019 15:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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Despite the lack of equatorial easterlies wrapping into the system like you'd sometimes see during a La-Nina, the strength of the current monsoonal flow is more than enough to wrap around and fuel these lows. So, I think it looks fine tbh.

Originally Posted By: Kino
Yeah Iím not sure why anyone would use an 850hpa wind model chart to show moisture movement into a TC...when itís all surface based. 🙄🙄 TCís rely on surface moisture not mid level moisture.


Nah, it's not all surface. You sometimes see cyclones struggle with dry air intrusion when there's a significant upper level trough just downstream from the TC. Sometimes, dry air in the mid-levels gets brought up from the south behind these troughs which affects convection around the LLCC.

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#1483862 - 03/01/2019 15:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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Well perhaps post an 850hpa moisture chart not a wind chart?

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#1483866 - 03/01/2019 15:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Totally blocks of the long distance NE flow, as marked by the heavy black line I added to the chart. This is the flow that transfers large amounts of moisture from the equatorial easterlies onto the Australian Continent when Walker circulation is active and local patterns are favourable.

Yes there is still a local NE flow, and yes there is plenty enough moisture for a cyclone and rain. But not nearly as much moisture as there could be if ENSO was more favourable. Rainfall totals near the center of the cyclone will be as high, but the rainfall totals will drop off a lot quicker as you move away from the cyclone, and as the cyclone moves inland than they would with a strong long range NE flow.

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#1483872 - 03/01/2019 16:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
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Mike you are definitely correct that the equatorial moisture is not as great as it would be with a La Nina or Neutral.
With Easterlies basically not existent at the edge of the nino 4 region. Although what your drawing misses is other monsoonal low drawing a meridonal wind flow which combines a high sitting south below it to drive long fetch easterlies from more central areas of the pacific. Hence providing adequate fuel which will see inland areas pick up decent rain.




Edited by ashestoashes (03/01/2019 16:33)

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#1483880 - 03/01/2019 17:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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/sigh. More huge pictures requiring sideways scrolling.

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#1483884 - 03/01/2019 17:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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No such problem for me with 125% zoom on a 22" monitor .
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1483905 - 03/01/2019 18:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Very informative posts today all smile

Didnt like to see GFS's latest "stealing Penny from us" just now.

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#1483906 - 03/01/2019 18:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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GFS would be good for us in Sth East Qld but I cannot see it verifying. There would need to be a dramatic change in the uppers before it came our way.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1483963 - 04/01/2019 09:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Trades look to be weaker in Nino3.4 this morning, sky clear above it acc. to the satellite images, yet SST there seems to be backing off?:



Nino1.2 has cooled, yet Nino.3 remains static at circa +0.6C as it has been for several weeks.

I would have thought these conditions would hold Nino3.4 anomalously warm?

I note that most MJO models have it dashing across phase 6 over next couple of days, after that, very little consensus, so likely to go null imo.


Edited by Petros (04/01/2019 09:58)

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#1483975 - 04/01/2019 11:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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I'm somewhat suspiscious of that daily series. I doubt nino 3.4 really went from 0.5 to 1.5 and then back again within the space of 2 weeks in late Oct, early Nov.

There may be a cool Kelvin wave from the trade wind surge recently in about the nino 3.4 region. The current WWB would not have impacted nino 3.4 but should be starting to impact 4 about now.

Waiting for US to sort out their govt shutdown so TAO comes back online......

Petros, By most MJO models are your referring to this set or roughly similar?

EC seems to be winning out with its much faster passage through zones 6, but GFS hasn't totally given up on a stall in the Pacific. All models show some weakening of the MJO signal following passage through the Pacific, with GFS showing slight weakening but backtrack through Pacific and most other models showing a fair bit of weakening as it progresses towards Indian.

While GFS is falling into line on MJO, it is maintaining the strength and duration of the forecast WWB, with EC having upgraded partway to meet GFS, but still somewhat weaker, and stronger signs of ending at the 10 day point than GFS even at the 14 day point.

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#1483985 - 04/01/2019 12:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Yep Mike, that MJO model set. I guess the MJO passage into the western/central Pacific will dictate winds along the equator over next 5 days. Will be interesting to watch.

Re rapid SST spikes/troughs, yep same, ...seems very rapid in the absence of a significant tropical storm system.

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#1484009 - 04/01/2019 14:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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I bet if it was the other way around, ie warming, it would go unquestioned 🙄 anyway NiŮo 3.4 has majorly cooled. 0.7c in a few weeks is a huge turnaround and removes any doubt re Modiki or a late NiŮo.

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#1484072 - 04/01/2019 19:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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I have always preferred to rely on the BOM stats for nino 3.4 during more than 10 years of posting on this forum. I ignored the daily stats when it warmed well into moderate el nino status at 1.5. Your claims that if it was the other way around I wouldn't question it is nonsense and insulting.



Nino indexes will be back close to their previous peaks, and possibly higher fairly quickly with the currently occurring WWB.

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#1484094 - 04/01/2019 21:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Noted both. Agree with both points, ......but tempered by my refusal to acknowledge that a 30 year period 1980 on, is in any way representative of a dataset to create a (eg. 0.5C warm((or cool)) sea surface (esp. below the sea surface) anomaly.

....just my perspective, learning, but definitely a tiro on this subject.

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#1484341 - 06/01/2019 12:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Looks like dry, dry, dry to continue. High still located off New Zealand.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...12month&area=qd

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#1484360 - 06/01/2019 14:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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Not dry for everyone, 70mm or almost the whole months average, here yest with more storms forecast this week smile


Edited by Kino (06/01/2019 14:34)

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#1484387 - 06/01/2019 19:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Westerly actuals, and lighter easterly anomaly evident on the south edge of the Kelvin Wave generation zone (Pacific Ocean +/- 3 deg of equator from New Guinea to date line) at the moment - due to the cyclones out that way.

If this wind zone was a few degrees higher, might have seen the development of a kelvin wave?


Edited by Petros (06/01/2019 19:25)

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#1484428 - 07/01/2019 07:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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What happens following the WWB if the Pacific trades pick straight back up again? I ask because models are showing a healthy burst of trades again later this week through the central and eastern Pacific.

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#1484431 - 07/01/2019 07:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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$64m question Mega BUT the current SST anomalies in the South Pacific are fascinating tbh - you look at South America and youíd swear a La NiŮa is breeding, you look at central and eastpac and El NiŮo.

The other thing is the coldness of the Southern Ocean - canít recall ever seeing it so below average for the whole ocean from about 50s and below.

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#1484439 - 07/01/2019 09:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Originally Posted By: Mega
What happens following the WWB if the Pacific trades pick straight back up again? I ask because models are showing a healthy burst of trades again later this week through the central and eastern Pacific.


A continuation of the pattern so far. Each WWB has been followed by a return to a near normal trades which has slowed down but not reversed the upward trend. Although we are now in the season when ENSO events typically decay. It does remain to be seen whether the last trade surge caused enough cooling that the current WWB won't reach a new peak.

One thing I note with the MJO recently active through Indian and Australian regions has left relatively cool water near Australia and Coral Sea. This seems to be why the current MJO forecast suggest a rapid and weak passage through Indian and Australian regions which may allow a quicker follow up with the next WWB.

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#1484444 - 07/01/2019 10:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Yep, the MJO zapped across the Pacific Ocean zones in only 5 days! I shouldnt be surprised, as the majority of models forecast this. The warm water in Nino3.4 refuses to snare a tropical convection period, remaining uncoupled as all here have noted.

Pacific EQ SST's are falling slightly across the Nino.4 zone, leaving the hottest water again in AUS GOC and around Darwin. SST from Onslow up to Broome is clearly warming when you compare todays SST actual values with those of the past couple of months.

My guess, more of the same for AUS over next 2 weeks with the X factor being "will the next cyclone be one off Darwin?".

That, along with looking for a resumption of strong trades along the EQ Pacific will be what Petros will be monitoring this week (also another closer study of many of the oceaninc climate report links that several of you folk have kindly provided me over the past 6 weeks).

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#1484445 - 07/01/2019 10:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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If the trades kick back into gear, with that colder water welling near Sth America, I wouldn't be surprised if we head back to Neutral territory, and rapidly. The MJO, as noted, did not persist long enough to cause any major warming IMO.

The next BoM outlook is due tomorrow so we will hear their thoughts for the weeks ahead.

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#1484536 - 07/01/2019 21:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Could all that cold water help trigger a La Nina?

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#1484571 - 07/01/2019 23:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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Need to see what the subsurface is doing.

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#1484658 - 08/01/2019 15:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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We are still ENSO neutral according to BoM.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1484663 - 08/01/2019 15:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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Originally Posted By: BoM
Tropical Pacific Ocean surface waters have returned to ENSO-neutral temperatures after exceeding El NiŮo levels in November and early December. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El NiŮo ALERT.
While waters at and beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific have been warmer than average since mid-2018, atmospheric indicators of ENSO such as cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have not responded and have mostly remained neutral. For an El NiŮo to become established, the atmosphere needs to reinforce and respond to the warmer waters at the ocean's surface. This reinforcement is what allows the widespread global effects on weather and climate to occur.
The recent cooling of tropical Pacific waters may partly reflect the movement of the MaddenĖJulian Oscillation (MJO), which has recently encouraged stronger trade winds over the tropical Pacific. However, the MJO is moving east, weakening the trade winds once again, which may allow the ocean surface to warm again.
Most models indicate sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to remain near El NiŮo levels at least until early autumn 2019. Models typically have less skill when forecasting through autumn compared with other seasons. If sea surface temperatures do maintain their anomalous warmth through summer, it increases the chance of El NiŮo emerging in 2019.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April.


Interesting subsurface!







Edited by Kino (08/01/2019 15:57)

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#1484712 - 08/01/2019 19:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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The current subsurface data wipes out the developing cool pool in the west. If true this would make el nino much more likely the rest of the year. I think this is unlikely, and note that the current data is the output of a model, and is only partly based on observations. Waiting to see when govt shutdown finishes and we can see what TAO shows.

GFS shows a short burst of above average trades in the center later in the week and early next week, flanked by westerlies anomalies both west and east. It only lasts a few days before westerlies return. EC agrees over its forecast period but the return of the westerlies in GFS is beyond the 10 day EC period. EC does set up a large area of low pressure in central Pac which typically leads to westerlies by day 10, even more so than GFS, and current MJO forecasts suggest MJO back in the Pacific fairly quickly.

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#1484722 - 08/01/2019 19:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
RC Offline
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Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


GFS shows a short burst of above average trades in the center later in the week and early next week, flanked by westerlies anomalies both west and east.


But are they westerlies.

I have been watching and it has been rare to see real westerlies.

A lot of the time recently it has been south westerlies. They have been blowing at an angle to the equator.

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#1484757 - 08/01/2019 23:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
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Looks like westerlies to me.

Sub-surface cooling mightn't do a lot for present status if processes like entrainment are stymied.

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#1484791 - 09/01/2019 09:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
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Outflow from Asia has weakened waiting for the next intense Siberian high, so has the westerly flow, not helped by slow moving westward moving low now near India.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan8.8.(158)YTD8.8(158)

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#1484798 - 09/01/2019 09:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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After a decent lull the SSL anomaly chart has been updated to Jan 3rd, shows no low level anomaly at Nino.4 (or any area across EQ Pacific atm).

I see SST cooling through Nino.3 into Nino3.4, no tropical cloud W of the dateline and the MJO strong at the moment in phase 8 near dateline - set to go null quickly over the next 4-5 days acc. to all MJO models.

The WWB zone above New Guinea into Nino.4 zone looks to be reducing back to a more normal trade wind regime (anomaly evident over past 5 days or so has weakened significantly imo.

Hottest new equatorial SST on earth is in the GOC atm, waters off Broome continuing to creep up warmer.

So I reckon a tropical storm mooted to form near Darwin during the weekend, per several models, looks a high chance. That would stir things up rainwise for Aus should it develop.

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#1484799 - 09/01/2019 10:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7671
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Kino
[quote=BoM]


The state of the present is typically based on the anomaly, yet to me, there is no consensus on the anomaly base line time frame, see above, yet for example, CDAS uses 1981-2010.

I bet you could change the SST anomaly by up to a degree by simply selecting either of the two datasets outlined on this post!

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#1484800 - 09/01/2019 10:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7671
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Oops re: "no tropical cloud W of the dateline" in my post #1484798 above that should read E of the dateline, not W.

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#1484841 - 09/01/2019 15:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2444
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Petros
That would stir things up rainwise for Aus should it develop.


Seems to me the highs are still stagnant off New Zealand stopping the ridge along inland queenland to move.

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#1484923 - 10/01/2019 10:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7671
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep RC, the hated Quidge. Kills rain in SE Vic too.

Nino3.4 seems to be trending cooler rather than warmer?:



Their is a tongue of cooler actual SST along EQ Pacific into Nino.3 becoming evident in the daily actual SST chart on Tropical Tidbits - right where Windy shows the trades blowing healthily.

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#1484950 - 10/01/2019 15:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
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Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 558
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Next few weeks looks to be torrid throughout the continent. SAM looks to be shifting into a negative phase. Highs will be sitting north enough for ridging through inland AUS. Definitely locking a dry and hot period.

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#1484958 - 10/01/2019 16:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 781
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Donít like the look of that Ash. Not good for bush fires. If it does go south I feel the affects have a lag of one or 2 weeks.

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#1484961 - 10/01/2019 16:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18831
Loc: The Beach.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1484970 - 10/01/2019 17:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
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Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8702
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
The models have the highs about their average position for the forseeable future, seems to be a bit of a shift in patterns toward the end of the latest EC run. One thing I'm watching is the possible TC off WA and how much interaction it will have with the upcoming heat fronts. From experience, the end of Jan/early Feb are potent when it comes to tropical systems interacting with the southern ones. Next few weeks will tell a story.

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#1485058 - 11/01/2019 11:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
MJO set to go null over the weekend, going by todays SatIR .....looks like it's already null imo.

So we now wait to see if a tropical system develops near Darwin next week?

Good rain in FNQ from Penny still occurring, nice to see.

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#1485093 - 11/01/2019 16:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 781
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Looks like the AAO has backed off. Only neg for a few days . Letís hope this trend continues.

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#1485118 - 11/01/2019 18:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
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Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
GFS latest run has now "seen" a tropical low to develop off Darwin early next week as per CMC/EC/AccG have been mooting for several days.

For my 2 bob's - would have bet that ex TC Penny's remnants would have stirred up a storm in the GOC before then. Probably explains why Petros never made the Aus rich list.

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#1485159 - 11/01/2019 20:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 781
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
You should probably post less. Petros .

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#1485231 - 12/01/2019 16:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5334
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Rude much?

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#1485233 - 12/01/2019 17:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7671
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Tiss OK, I'm sure that most regular posters on here know that I'm only a weather tiro.

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#1485241 - 12/01/2019 19:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
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Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 781
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Is it a weather thread or climate? What happened to the widespread rain and cyclone off Darwin? Does 30 years of data insufficient to 3 months of screenshots of sstís? If you want people to believe you. Post less. Oh IMO!

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#1485246 - 12/01/2019 19:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3087
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Youíre a rude troll and contribute nothing to this tread other than bile, sod off.

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#1485248 - 12/01/2019 20:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18831
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Petros
Tiss OK, I'm sure that most regular posters on here know that I'm only a weather tiro.


I enjoy your input Petros . Don't stop posting .
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1485255 - 12/01/2019 22:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2444
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Looks like dry weather set to continue for the foreseeable future.

Still no widespread rain events to happen. That being a large vigorous trough system.

No two ways about it that we are still stuck in a multi year dry event.

I am not entirely convinced yet we will see an El Nino officially form, probably stay as a la nada with devastating consequences for the country.

On another US based forum they are all but convinced a big El Nino will form based on the current wind event near PNG. Unfortunately the US government shutdown is restricting data availability to see what the subsurface anomalies are currently doing.

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#1485256 - 12/01/2019 23:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 781
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Originally Posted By: Kino
Youíre a rude troll and contribute nothing to this tread other than bile, sod off.
rude troll? Iíve seen your twitter feed.

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#1485258 - 13/01/2019 01:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
marakai Offline
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Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2063
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Is it a weather thread or climate? What happened to the widespread rain and cyclone off Darwin? Does 30 years of data insufficient to 3 months of screenshots of sstís? If you want people to believe you. Post less. Oh IMO!

And your efforts are so much more important ? Pull your head in you dweeb.

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#1485261 - 13/01/2019 06:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7494
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
She's one dry, scorched country atm. Might as well throw away the SAM since it hasn't been representative of Australia's recent climate pattern - in fact, far from it.. ENSO? Nope. Almost identical pattern occurred during weak Nina / cool-neutral. IOD? Nope. Same happened when IOD was previously negative in 2016.

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#1485280 - 13/01/2019 11:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1857
Loc: Kingaroy
This drought will break eventually and when it does it will be dramatic.

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#1485284 - 13/01/2019 12:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3087
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
It gets said, ad nauseum, but Dorothea MacKellar nailed it back in the late 1800ís ď...of drought and flooding rains...Ē. If she can recognise that, not being a climate scientist and not homogenising data, why do we still struggle? We will have drier times and wetter times. It will reset and we will go back to flooding rains. It seems our continent isnít about fairly stable climates but extremes.


Edited by Kino (13/01/2019 12:58)

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#1485286 - 13/01/2019 14:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1731
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
One of the model outputs on CFS 3.4 anomalies have it tanking pretty much from Feb on down to -2.5. I would like to see a few more runs show up like that!
I have never been convinced of an El nino this time round. Looks like westerlies back right off again after this latest round....and there is a heap of cold water south of the equator that could move north and be quite erosive to any subsurface warmth in the far east Pac. Quick switch to big La nina please...
Of course there is more runs pushing for a result the other way and warming to 2.5 but something just doesnt feel right with that side of the ledger for some reason.

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#1485288 - 13/01/2019 14:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 558
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: Kino
It gets said, ad nauseum, but Dorothea MacKellar nailed it back in the late 1800ís ď...of drought and flooding rains...Ē. If she can recognise that, not being a climate scientist and not homogenising data, why do we still struggle? We will have drier times and wetter times. It will reset and we will go back to flooding rains. It seems our continent isnít about fairly stable climates but extremes.


That's a quite well understood idea by climate scientists. Although the problem is that we are a land of extremes becoming more extreme. Anyone can understand that higher temperatures will lead to more evaporation, exacerbating a drought. While per 1 degree of warming that's 7% more global precipitable.

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#1485293 - 13/01/2019 15:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1731
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
And Yet look at the record cold and huge snow depths across the NH. I wish I could find the article that talked about NH getting very cold and SH warming up in Grand Solar minimum. Certainly could get a sense something like that starting to happen as it approaches.... Because we have been having very hot summers and they have been having very cold winters. Whatever is happening its not just Australia being a land of extremes there is extreme ends of the spectrum happening simultaneously on either side of the earth.

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#1485294 - 13/01/2019 15:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
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Registered: 22/10/2017
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I wonder if there were some very unconventional investors who followed things like the Grand Solar minimum. Put money into things such as wheat futures they would have made an amazing amount of money.

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#1485295 - 13/01/2019 15:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ashestoashes]
GringosRain Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1731
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
I wonder if there were some very unconventional investors who followed things like the Grand Solar minimum. Put money into things such as wheat futures they would have made an amazing amount of money.


Hell yes...some very smart money on this stuff...

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#1485297 - 13/01/2019 15:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3569
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
And Yet look at the record cold and huge snow depths across the NH.



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#1485298 - 13/01/2019 15:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1731
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
https://www.sott.net/article/404782-From...TCqeRXng_VLityU

Its January MH. November isnt Winter. Cherry picking professional you are.

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#1485300 - 13/01/2019 16:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7494
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Yeah, I'm not sure why Mike posted a chart of November?

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#1485306 - 13/01/2019 17:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
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Loc: Buderim
Because global data sets for Dec aren't available.

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#1485316 - 13/01/2019 18:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
pete28 Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1144
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
And Yet look at the record cold and huge snow depths across the NH. I wish I could find the article that talked about NH getting very cold and SH warming up in Grand Solar minimum. Certainly could get a sense something like that starting to happen as it approaches.... Because we have been having very hot summers and they have been having very cold winters. Whatever is happening its not just Australia being a land of extremes there is extreme ends of the spectrum happening simultaneously on either side of the earth.


Has it actually been a colder then average December and half of January though for Europe? Or just a few big snow events which most certainly doesnít always translate into colder then normal temps?

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#1485321 - 13/01/2019 18:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3087
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Because global data sets for Dec aren't available.


So, again, why bother posting it? It wasnít relevant, it isnít recent and it was nothing but a cherry pick. Fancy putting up an autumn chart when they were talking about winter. Disingenuous at the very least.

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#1485322 - 13/01/2019 19:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7671
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
https://www.sott.net/article/404782-From...TCqeRXng_VLityU

Its January MH. November isnt Winter. Cherry picking professional you are.


What did Mike provide on this?

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#1485324 - 13/01/2019 19:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3569
Loc: Buderim
I provided some facts. Some people don't like them.

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#1485326 - 13/01/2019 19:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7494
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I provided some facts. Some people don't like them.


They weren't referring to November though.

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#1485329 - 13/01/2019 20:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3087
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
I provided some facts. Some people don't like them.


With regards to the context, no you didnít. No one talked about November, because, you see, thatís actually autumn in the Northern Hemisphere.

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#1485334 - 13/01/2019 21:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1857
Loc: Kingaroy
A strong La Nina combined with a negative IOD would be a lifesaver for the agricultural sector.

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#1485348 - 13/01/2019 23:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: pete28]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1731
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: pete28
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
And Yet look at the record cold and huge snow depths across the NH. I wish I could find the article that talked about NH getting very cold and SH warming up in Grand Solar minimum. Certainly could get a sense something like that starting to happen as it approaches.... Because we have been having very hot summers and they have been having very cold winters. Whatever is happening its not just Australia being a land of extremes there is extreme ends of the spectrum happening simultaneously on either side of the earth.


Has it actually been a colder then average December and half of January though for Europe? Or just a few big snow events which most certainly doesnít always translate into colder then normal temps?


Honestly I havent checked charts Pete. Im sure MH will be itching to have his say, so I guess if December figures become available and Mike posts it, then they are warmer than average and if he doesnt they were colder than average.

I watch things other than charts and read a broad spectrum of stuff and the best dots to join are commentary of people on the ground who can give context to the level of cold and snow they are seeing. Figures sometimes just arent the same as human experience. Its like Obs hill being a fair representation of temperatures in Sydney. Most peoples experience would be quite different to what the "figures" suggest. Something as simple as the 9am reset can also skew things so as not to fit the human experience of how a particular day might have been for them. So figures and charts are important, but they are just one tool amongst many for joining dots.
Markets are good place to watch also....because even though they can be manipulated, ultimately they wont lie. So yes, wheat, corn, beef etc can be good indicators of global extremes of all sorts.

That same page has other recent articles on cold such as:
https://www.sott.net/article/404716-Heav...parts-of-Serbia
https://www.sott.net/article/404700-Worl...he-US-and-Japan
https://www.sott.net/article/404603-Ice-...d-Solar-Minimum

Seems the current cold may be related to a SSW and the displacement of the polar vortex. The result is extremes side by side. The video in the last link which i just watched (and have no particular attachment to) makes comments on that about half way through, but the back end of the video is a bit loaded for this thread so I would encourage people not to watch all of it.

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#1485352 - 14/01/2019 03:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2063
Loc: Maryfarms NQ

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#1485363 - 14/01/2019 08:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3569
Loc: Buderim
So is the so called grand solar minimum only supposed to have an impact since the current winter? I remember when temps temporarily dropped in 2008, this was blamed on this so called grand solar minimum. There were confident predictions that there would be further cooling due to the so called grand solar minimum, yet every year since then has been warmer. Every year since then whenever there has been cold weather somewhere its blamed on this so called grand solar minimum.

Temp pattern since 2008 for winter only, and against a more recent baseline to get rid of most of the long term trend.


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#1485365 - 14/01/2019 09:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7671
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Surely there is a significant lag between solar cycles and resultant impact on the earths climate?

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#1485368 - 14/01/2019 10:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1731
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
yes there will be a lag. GSM isnt even starting till 2022...so whilst we may be seeing some early effects the bulk of it will be in front of us. The grand solar cycles arent just some theory...they happen. And this one will happen too, but who knows if anthropogenic activities will offset its effects. Its certainly possible they could accentuate the extremes you would expect in GSM. I think thats what we are seeing more and more a world of extremes both side by side and in either hemisphere.

I suppose if by 2030 the warming trends are continuing over the whole earth, then I guess we are all doomed come 2055 when the GSM is supposed to finish and the slow return to normal solar activity begins. Most of us will be dead or decrepit by then anyway.

From what I can understand. Grand solar minimums are not really pleasant, and a cold world isnt a very productive world, so personally, I actually dont really want to see its massive disruptive potential to a planet of 7.5 billion people who all need to eat. Maybe if we can get Carbon to level or peak in the next 30-50 years, generations might look back and say lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse...or maybe it wont make an iota of difference how warm or cold it is now, or how much carbon there is or isnt in the atmosphere.

A world with this many people, and this much technology and this much reliance on the "system" rather than self sufficiency has never lived through an event like this, so I think none of us really has a damn clue whats going to happen.

Some really clever people think this is a good idea on the doorstep of GSM. Nucking Futs. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/geoengineer...HF-3W8mYG8FCsUA
Finally normalising the elephant.

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#1485408 - 14/01/2019 19:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5334
Loc: Not tellin!
Mike solar cycles last on average 11 years. How long ago was 2008......

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#1485437 - 14/01/2019 23:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 88
Loc: Peachester
"we may be seeing some early effects"

Really? What (global) effects are these? No effect where I live, in fact the opposite. Oops sorry, thats a local weather isn't it.


"so I think none of us really has a damn clue whats going to happen"

I do - sweet fa.The sun has been heading towards a minimum for decades ... effect - sweet fa.


"I suppose if by 2030 the warming trends are continuing over the whole earth, then I guess we are all doomed."
" lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse"

So lets do nothing, after all doomed is so much easier.

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#1485439 - 14/01/2019 23:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3087
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Meanwhile, after that diatribe, most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave (seems there isnít the hyperbolic version for a cold outbreak as there is a warm one...) with temps expected to drop up to 28 BELOW average. Thatís freaking cold.

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#1485449 - 15/01/2019 07:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 88
Loc: Peachester
Originally Posted By: Kino
28 BELOW average


Wheres that?

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#1485450 - 15/01/2019 07:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1731
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
"we may be seeing some early effects"

Really? What (global) effects are these? No effect where I live, in fact the opposite. Oops sorry, thats a local weather isn't it.


"so I think none of us really has a damn clue whats going to happen"

I do - sweet fa.The sun has been heading towards a minimum for decades ... effect - sweet fa.


"I suppose if by 2030 the warming trends are continuing over the whole earth, then I guess we are all doomed."
" lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse"

So lets do nothing, after all doomed is so much easier.



Maybe in Peachester there are no extremes happening, but a whole lot of places on the globe are experiencing extreme conditions. Volcanic eruptions increasing, earthquakes increasing. The effects I described are the extremes, happening side by side and across the globe. Suck your blue bill and turn Sunrise back on....maybe make a donation to the scientists who are about to "officially" start spraying substances in the sky to dim the sun.

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#1485451 - 15/01/2019 08:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
CeeBee Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2012
Posts: 2643
Originally Posted By: Kino
Meanwhile, after that diatribe, most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave (seems there isnít the hyperbolic version for a cold outbreak as there is a warm one...) with temps expected to drop up to 28 BELOW average. Thatís freaking cold.


The current US Forecast destroys the claim that "most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave"



The US is not the whole planet...

_________________________

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#1485452 - 15/01/2019 08:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1731
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
strangely enough....looks like extremes side by side. Hmmm

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#1485454 - 15/01/2019 08:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: CeeBee]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7494
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: CeeBee
Originally Posted By: Kino
Meanwhile, after that diatribe, most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave (seems there isnít the hyperbolic version for a cold outbreak as there is a warm one...) with temps expected to drop up to 28 BELOW average. Thatís freaking cold.


The current US Forecast destroys the claim that "most of the US is looking at a savage cold wave"


If you look further ahead, it does look bloody cold through most of the US into the weekend and early next week though.

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#1485455 - 15/01/2019 08:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1731
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Forecasts only apply to the current day Mega. That claim was"destroyed" remember.

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#1485473 - 15/01/2019 10:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3569
Loc: Buderim
Global Forecast

Cold in US, but more relevant to us is warm in east Asia, and warm throughout the forecast period, implying less push from the north for the monsoon which has been very poor so far this season.

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#1485474 - 15/01/2019 10:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1857
Loc: Kingaroy
A failed monsoon usually results in big heatwaves down south as heat that is normally moderated by the monsoon filters down into the southern states.

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#1485482 - 15/01/2019 11:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7671
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Temps appear to have topped out in Nino.4, not as many 30C spots on the daily SST chart.



Will be interesting to see where the SOI ends up in a fortnights time as the new cycle commences - not much pressure difference Darwin-Tahiti atm with the MJO null.

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#1485483 - 15/01/2019 11:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 17
It's actually a high hpa hadley cell moving over the
continent that brings heatwaves and is also is a key driver
for the incoming monsoon troughs.

@Chris Stumer


Edited by vorts (15/01/2019 11:22)

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#1485489 - 15/01/2019 12:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7671
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hi Vorts - do you have a diagram to assist in your explanation above?

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#1485523 - 15/01/2019 16:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
vorts Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 17
The Hadley cell is formed when warm air rises near the equator and comes back down around 30į south latitude. It then flows back northward towards the equator along the surface.

https://imgur.com/Vyon8fi

https://imgur.com/np5DQcq

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#1485533 - 15/01/2019 18:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7671
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks for that Vorts.

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#1485544 - 15/01/2019 20:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7494
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Looking at Europe and Asia, both look very warm (particularly Asia) in comparison to the upcoming cold-snap across the US.

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#1485550 - 15/01/2019 21:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3087
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Europe looks frigid? Dunno what charts youíre looking at, and indeed Russia and Asia look warm, which is not unsurprising given the extreme cold in the US and Western Europe.

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#1485551 - 15/01/2019 21:59 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3087
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
And Ceebee for the lol of the week - posting a one day chart to attack, as usual. 🙄🙄🙄🙄

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#1485553 - 15/01/2019 22:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7494
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I still don't see anything 'extreme' about the cold in Western Europe though. I am looping https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...019011506&fh=0. Correct me if I'm wrong. And I did say, "In comparison to the upcoming cold-snap in the US."

I'm seeing a few news articles out there, "Snow expected to cover Scotland this week as temperatures reach below freezing point." Well, doesn't that happen every year?

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#1485554 - 15/01/2019 22:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 558
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
There were some extreme lows across Europe recorded with a record low of -23C in northern Greece. Although nitpicking data is not the best representation, so here is an image of the temperature predictions posted in a Bloomberg Article on the 8th of Jan. Note there was a severe dip recorded , which was what people were referring to although the warming cycles around it were also quite notable though.


Disclaimer I know there is no El Nino occuring though, but how similar do the temperature anomalies in Cebee's chart look to the CONUS temperature anomaly for a moderate-strong El Nino.

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#1485555 - 15/01/2019 22:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7494
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Thanks ashes.

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#1485558 - 15/01/2019 22:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3087
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...19011418&fh=144

This shows plenty of anomalies up to -12 before warming next week.

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#1485584 - Yesterday at 09:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 88
Loc: Peachester
Ahh, now I see where the -28 came from.

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#1485592 - Yesterday at 10:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7671
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
EQ cloud seems to be building around Indonesia again, as you'd expect with most MJO models forecasting a return to the Aus region in coming days. Still mooted to create a tropical storm SW of Indonesia this time around by some models, .....but not close to Aus.

Pacific EQ trades pumping freshly all the way into central Nino.4, interestingly Nino1.2 is trending warmer over the past week.

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#1485600 - Yesterday at 10:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3569
Loc: Buderim
Passage of MJO into Indian Ocean zones 2/3 seems to correspond quite closely to a renewed surge of trade winds, even though MJO strength is pretty much at minimum. Passage back to West Pacific looks to be very quick, compared to last passage through the La Nina friendly zones which saw a short stall.

Not sure why the warming in the east - would have thought last trade surge would have a cool Kelvin wave in that location.



Still waiting for TAO to come back online to see what exactly happened with the WWB finishing just now, and the subsurface. I noticed from BOM that other ocean temp data seems to have gone missing as well. Compare current analysis with December. The top panel is totally blank for January, but filled with crosses for December marking observation locations. Maybe these charts are always like this for the current month? I don't check them often, but do check from time to time and don't recall noticing this before.

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#1485644 - Yesterday at 15:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 88
Loc: Peachester
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
"we may be seeing some early effects"

Really? What (global) effects are these? No effect where I live, in fact the opposite. Oops sorry, thats a local weather isn't it.


"so I think none of us really has a damn clue whats going to happen"

I do - sweet fa.The sun has been heading towards a minimum for decades ... effect - sweet fa.


"I suppose if by 2030 the warming trends are continuing over the whole earth, then I guess we are all doomed."
" lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse"

So lets do nothing, after all doomed is so much easier.



Maybe in Peachester there are no extremes happening, but a whole lot of places on the globe are experiencing extreme conditions. Volcanic eruptions increasing, earthquakes increasing. The effects I described are the extremes, happening side by side and across the globe. Suck your blue bill and turn Sunrise back on....maybe make a donation to the scientists who are about to "officially" start spraying substances in the sky to dim the sun.



Whoa there Gringo...

First, you were talking about the so-called GSM and how cold it could get. You didn't mention extremes, volcanoes or earthquakes. In fact you said: "...lucky we went into that GSM", which presumably means you think things might not get too extreme.

I point out to you that although, yes, the insolation we receive from the sun is reducing, that has been happening for decades. At the same time as global temperatures climb more steeply. Corelation? Zero. Sweet fa.

There's your elephant. And what on earth does: "Suck your blue bill and turn Sunrise back on" mean?

Btw Peachester has been extremely hot and extremely dry (compared to the 120 year records at Crohamhurst a few ks away) for the past 4 or 5 years.

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#1485656 - Yesterday at 15:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1731
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Sorry Delta-T we are talking a totally different language.

You have misquoted what I actually wrote, so your context is all wrong.

Volcanos and earthquakes are linked to solar minimum periods so relevant.

Solar insolation is relevant but is not my elephant. I have been dropping breadcrumbs for a while. Some might join the dots. Doesnt matter if not.

Should be blue pill. Sorry if you dont get it. Im only speaking to those that do.

Its extremely hot and dry here for 4 years also. I'm experiencing what is happening just as much as anyone else. My farm is running out of water. I have my eyes wide open. I drink from many cups and not just the coolaid fountain though. All is not what it seems.

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#1485668 - Yesterday at 18:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7494
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: GringosRain


Its extremely hot and dry here for 4 years also. I'm experiencing what is happening just as much as anyone else. My farm is running out of water. I have my eyes wide open.


So what measures do you think we need to take in an effort to reduce the effects of drought since...I'm just going to say it...so many farmers out there still refuse to believe that climate change is actually a thing? Do we all just sit back, let the prolonged dry periods take over and not even try to do anything about it? Many of these farmers complain about how dry it is but don't seem to want to push for any solution.

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#1485670 - Yesterday at 18:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2444
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
There is no solution while the majority urban people look for a scapegoat to make sure their extremely affluent lifestyle remains unchanged.

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#1485676 - Yesterday at 19:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 88
Loc: Peachester
Let he who has not been a beneficiary of decades of cheap fossil fuel cast the first stone.

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#1485678 - Yesterday at 19:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 88
Loc: Peachester
Can those with a better memory of the last warm Tasman blob explain what is causing it. Seems to be coupled with the high or is that my imagination?

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#1485679 - Yesterday at 19:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7494
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Can those with a better memory of the last warm Tasman blob explain what is causing it. Seems to be coupled with the high or is that my imagination?


Definitely coupled with a continuous blocking high. Why, is anyone's guess.

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#1485680 - Yesterday at 19:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 781
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Letís just wait and see what happens. 🙃

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#1485682 - Yesterday at 19:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5334
Loc: Not tellin!
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: GringosRain


Its extremely hot and dry here for 4 years also. I'm experiencing what is happening just as much as anyone else. My farm is running out of water. I have my eyes wide open.


So what measures do you think we need to take in an effort to reduce the effects of drought since...I'm just going to say it...so many farmers out there still refuse to believe that climate change is actually a thing? Do we all just sit back, let the prolonged dry periods take over and not even try to do anything about it? Many of these farmers complain about how dry it is but don't seem to want to push for any solution.
The most effective and attainable goal for farmers to do it to adopt regenerative farming techniques which build organic matter, reduce input costs and deliver more resilient soils and therefor better ability to handle extremes. Whether it be extreme dry,
Wet, hot or cold. This will work far better than any tax, solar panel or windmill

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#1485687 - Yesterday at 19:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 88
Loc: Peachester
Its certainly been driving my climate for the past month.

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#1485691 - Yesterday at 20:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1731
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Mega- People need to have a deep understanding of the dark underbelly of global geopolitics before the forbidden topic can begin to be discussed in full context, and I think nearly everyone doesnt have a broad enough frame of reference in that department.
On that basis, we can never join the dots properly on climate drivers or anything else with the relatively (restricted) primitive tools we have at our disposal and the controlled mainstream narratives constantly fired at us.

This thread is informative and useful on some level, but of course can be frustratingly contained because of what cant be shared. There are obvious factions, but there shouldnít be.

Its all an illusion, both sides are being played.

Divide and conquer...the world is run on it and the playbook works beautifully for all sorts of things and us dummies fall for it time and time again.

We the people arent the issue. The banks, corporations and fake (corporate) governments are. We need to wake the hell up quick smart and go all yellow vest, because all the solutions to fix our "problems" are available and have been for a long time. They could be deployed tomorrow.

Think MDB fish die-offs, think Adani mine. Are the people really in control here? No. So dont fall for the controlled msm narrative on anything. The corporate governments do what they want...because we arent their true masters. The Australian government are truly one of the worst too, the true bum lickers of the world. Have our land, have our water, have our mineral resources. What a joke.

The climate is changing, in fact many things are changing, but its not necessarily for the reasons the general populace believes.

The world is slowly waking up to these truths though. Aussies are lagging a bit more, but we can wake up and take action too. Its not action against someone for being an AGW believer or non believer or liberal or labour, or democrat or republican, or catholic or muslim. Mere titles used to distract and control. We all need to turn our attention to the puppet masters of the world who sit in shadows; and show them what a revolution really looks like. Not by sharing a meme on facebook, but by rolling the governments and central banks around the world like dominos.

We need a new system.
We need free energy released immediately.
We need true rule of law, not the law of the sea, the law of the land.
We need to demand our civil liberties remain in tact with a right to privacy and not let the totalitarian tiptoe based on false flag events to continue to fool us into cedeing our rights away through silence (silence is assent).
We need to have access to alternative medicines and maintain our rights over our bodies.
We need to maintain our sovereignty and not relinquish our rights to foreign entities, corporations and agreements such as the UN and the TPP.
We need real currency backed by gold, not this fake fiat [censored] we have now....I could go on with pages.
In short we need real foundations for a new system, not this faÁade of freedom that the sheeple continue to accept. Until people truly wake up, these crust deep debates are a yawn. The whole system is about control of the people. Nothing will change for the better while we are perceived as the enemy by our own governments and whilst we perceive our fellow man that way.
Control of the people requires control of the financial system and the current financial system requires "growth" and profit and growth and profit are pretty much mutually exclusive with true reparations of our environment. Not just carbon, but deforestation, plastic pollution, riparian systems, habitat destruction, ending fake wars, exposing (ending) geoengineering, species extinction...etc etc.

Its not that people and farmers dont want to take action, but they know something is not quite right about the mainstream narrative and they are right. There is more much more going on, we are being blamed for it, but intuitively people know somethings up. It doesnt mean we shouldnt be doing proactive things as communities, we should....just ask more questions, Go deeper and get more answers. The trick is that enough people need to go digging and join the dots at that deeper level. Then they might get truly angry and start to take real action to implement a proper new system. Not an easy road Im sure, but worth it.

I think it needs a revolution Mega, and it might be coming....

Love to the haters in advance. Back to my rock. May the ENSO discussions be blessed with clarity!! lol

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#1485695 - Yesterday at 20:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 88
Loc: Peachester
Originally Posted By: GringosRain

You have misquoted what I actually wrote


No I cut and pasted it.
And Btw volcanoes and earthquakes are not increasing.


Edited by Delta-T (Yesterday at 20:30)

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#1485699 - Yesterday at 21:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1731
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Originally Posted By: GringosRain

You have misquoted what I actually wrote


No I cut and pasted it.
And Btw volcanoes and earthquakes are not increasing.


I did not say "lucky we went into that GSM" I said;

"lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse"

You cant cut a statement in half and say its the same thing.

As for earthquakes and volcanos, I read that mag 6.5+ earthquake were on the up in last couple years and the number of current active volcanos was at around 40 which was high. Off top of my head...reasoning is that as solar output decreases more cosmic rays hit the earths magnetosphere and are directed towards the poles exciting seismic activity. I dont have time to chase down the sources. So I will accept that I was incorrect and that it is not relevant.

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#1485718 - Today at 08:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3569
Loc: Buderim
Modoki influence is late but intense monsoon. Activity so far has been weak, but GFS 14 days is starting to pick up on strong activity at the end of its forecast.

With the MJO timed to the end of January, and modoki typically enhancing rain through Jan and Feb, but supressing it in Dec/March it might be the one big monsoon burst for the season.

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