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#1483905 - 03/01/2019 18:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8058
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Very informative posts today all smile

Didnt like to see GFS's latest "stealing Penny from us" just now.

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#1483906 - 03/01/2019 18:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19040
Loc: The Beach.
GFS would be good for us in Sth East Qld but I cannot see it verifying. There would need to be a dramatic change in the uppers before it came our way.
_________________________


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#1483963 - 04/01/2019 09:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8058
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Trades look to be weaker in Nino3.4 this morning, sky clear above it acc. to the satellite images, yet SST there seems to be backing off?:



Nino1.2 has cooled, yet Nino.3 remains static at circa +0.6C as it has been for several weeks.

I would have thought these conditions would hold Nino3.4 anomalously warm?

I note that most MJO models have it dashing across phase 6 over next couple of days, after that, very little consensus, so likely to go null imo.


Edited by Petros (04/01/2019 09:58)

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#1483975 - 04/01/2019 11:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3816
Loc: Buderim
I'm somewhat suspiscious of that daily series. I doubt nino 3.4 really went from 0.5 to 1.5 and then back again within the space of 2 weeks in late Oct, early Nov.

There may be a cool Kelvin wave from the trade wind surge recently in about the nino 3.4 region. The current WWB would not have impacted nino 3.4 but should be starting to impact 4 about now.

Waiting for US to sort out their govt shutdown so TAO comes back online......

Petros, By most MJO models are your referring to this set or roughly similar?

EC seems to be winning out with its much faster passage through zones 6, but GFS hasn't totally given up on a stall in the Pacific. All models show some weakening of the MJO signal following passage through the Pacific, with GFS showing slight weakening but backtrack through Pacific and most other models showing a fair bit of weakening as it progresses towards Indian.

While GFS is falling into line on MJO, it is maintaining the strength and duration of the forecast WWB, with EC having upgraded partway to meet GFS, but still somewhat weaker, and stronger signs of ending at the 10 day point than GFS even at the 14 day point.

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#1483985 - 04/01/2019 12:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8058
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep Mike, that MJO model set. I guess the MJO passage into the western/central Pacific will dictate winds along the equator over next 5 days. Will be interesting to watch.

Re rapid SST spikes/troughs, yep same, ...seems very rapid in the absence of a significant tropical storm system.

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#1484009 - 04/01/2019 14:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
I bet if it was the other way around, ie warming, it would go unquestioned 🙄 anyway Niño 3.4 has majorly cooled. 0.7c in a few weeks is a huge turnaround and removes any doubt re Modiki or a late Niño.

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#1484072 - 04/01/2019 19:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3816
Loc: Buderim
I have always preferred to rely on the BOM stats for nino 3.4 during more than 10 years of posting on this forum. I ignored the daily stats when it warmed well into moderate el nino status at 1.5. Your claims that if it was the other way around I wouldn't question it is nonsense and insulting.



Nino indexes will be back close to their previous peaks, and possibly higher fairly quickly with the currently occurring WWB.

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#1484094 - 04/01/2019 21:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8058
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Noted both. Agree with both points, ......but tempered by my refusal to acknowledge that a 30 year period 1980 on, is in any way representative of a dataset to create a (eg. 0.5C warm((or cool)) sea surface (esp. below the sea surface) anomaly.

....just my perspective, learning, but definitely a tiro on this subject.

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#1484341 - 06/01/2019 12:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
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Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2597
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Looks like dry, dry, dry to continue. High still located off New Zealand.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...12month&area=qd

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#1484360 - 06/01/2019 14:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Not dry for everyone, 70mm or almost the whole months average, here yest with more storms forecast this week smile


Edited by Kino (06/01/2019 14:34)

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#1484387 - 06/01/2019 19:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8058
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Westerly actuals, and lighter easterly anomaly evident on the south edge of the Kelvin Wave generation zone (Pacific Ocean +/- 3 deg of equator from New Guinea to date line) at the moment - due to the cyclones out that way.

If this wind zone was a few degrees higher, might have seen the development of a kelvin wave?


Edited by Petros (06/01/2019 19:25)

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#1484428 - 07/01/2019 07:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
What happens following the WWB if the Pacific trades pick straight back up again? I ask because models are showing a healthy burst of trades again later this week through the central and eastern Pacific.

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#1484431 - 07/01/2019 07:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
$64m question Mega BUT the current SST anomalies in the South Pacific are fascinating tbh - you look at South America and you’d swear a La Niña is breeding, you look at central and eastpac and El Niño.

The other thing is the coldness of the Southern Ocean - can’t recall ever seeing it so below average for the whole ocean from about 50s and below.

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#1484439 - 07/01/2019 09:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3816
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Mega
What happens following the WWB if the Pacific trades pick straight back up again? I ask because models are showing a healthy burst of trades again later this week through the central and eastern Pacific.


A continuation of the pattern so far. Each WWB has been followed by a return to a near normal trades which has slowed down but not reversed the upward trend. Although we are now in the season when ENSO events typically decay. It does remain to be seen whether the last trade surge caused enough cooling that the current WWB won't reach a new peak.

One thing I note with the MJO recently active through Indian and Australian regions has left relatively cool water near Australia and Coral Sea. This seems to be why the current MJO forecast suggest a rapid and weak passage through Indian and Australian regions which may allow a quicker follow up with the next WWB.

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#1484444 - 07/01/2019 10:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8058
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep, the MJO zapped across the Pacific Ocean zones in only 5 days! I shouldnt be surprised, as the majority of models forecast this. The warm water in Nino3.4 refuses to snare a tropical convection period, remaining uncoupled as all here have noted.

Pacific EQ SST's are falling slightly across the Nino.4 zone, leaving the hottest water again in AUS GOC and around Darwin. SST from Onslow up to Broome is clearly warming when you compare todays SST actual values with those of the past couple of months.

My guess, more of the same for AUS over next 2 weeks with the X factor being "will the next cyclone be one off Darwin?".

That, along with looking for a resumption of strong trades along the EQ Pacific will be what Petros will be monitoring this week (also another closer study of many of the oceaninc climate report links that several of you folk have kindly provided me over the past 6 weeks).

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#1484445 - 07/01/2019 10:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
If the trades kick back into gear, with that colder water welling near Sth America, I wouldn't be surprised if we head back to Neutral territory, and rapidly. The MJO, as noted, did not persist long enough to cause any major warming IMO.

The next BoM outlook is due tomorrow so we will hear their thoughts for the weeks ahead.

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#1484536 - 07/01/2019 21:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1880
Loc: Kingaroy
Could all that cold water help trigger a La Nina?

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#1484571 - 07/01/2019 23:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Need to see what the subsurface is doing.

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#1484658 - 08/01/2019 15:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19040
Loc: The Beach.
We are still ENSO neutral according to BoM.
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#1484663 - 08/01/2019 15:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: BoM
Tropical Pacific Ocean surface waters have returned to ENSO-neutral temperatures after exceeding El Niño levels in November and early December. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT.
While waters at and beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific have been warmer than average since mid-2018, atmospheric indicators of ENSO such as cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have not responded and have mostly remained neutral. For an El Niño to become established, the atmosphere needs to reinforce and respond to the warmer waters at the ocean's surface. This reinforcement is what allows the widespread global effects on weather and climate to occur.
The recent cooling of tropical Pacific waters may partly reflect the movement of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has recently encouraged stronger trade winds over the tropical Pacific. However, the MJO is moving east, weakening the trade winds once again, which may allow the ocean surface to warm again.
Most models indicate sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to remain near El Niño levels at least until early autumn 2019. Models typically have less skill when forecasting through autumn compared with other seasons. If sea surface temperatures do maintain their anomalous warmth through summer, it increases the chance of El Niño emerging in 2019.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate from December to April.


Interesting subsurface!







Edited by Kino (08/01/2019 15:57)

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