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#1499238 - 22/05/2019 09:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: tsunami]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: tsunami
I see in the victoria thread there is talk of a ECL next week. Going by isobars we wont get rain from it but may get some very cold Sw Winds

Maybe not a proper ECL but yes, those colder SW winds next week are the same ones mentioned in the previous posts in recent days on here.

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#1499240 - 22/05/2019 09:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1373
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Thanks Ken
Be nice to light the fire hopefully
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1499241 - 22/05/2019 09:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
US weather, 26 Tornados, but still considered a bust.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/What-H...ven=cat6-widget

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#1499246 - 22/05/2019 10:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090


If the above flickr link doesn't work due to upcoming maintenance, try: https://photos.app.goo.gl/9gibdChq3x5axP4f6


Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
US weather, 26 Tornados, but still considered a bust.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/What-H...ven=cat6-widget


Even just one tornado here would be called epic lol

But yeah, I consider it a case of "yes and no" with a degree of subjective interpretation involved. While there weren't anywhere near as many violent tornadoes as what a lot of people were expecting, I also think a lot of people tend to assume that the SPC risk categories only apply to tornadoes and no other severe wx phenomena such as large hail and damaging winds which isn't the case.

Above is a map where I've overlaid the SPC severe storm reports (red crosses) on top of the first convective outlook that was issued which contained the High risk area. In terms of the overall positions of the severe weather in general corresponding to the higher risk areas, it definitely wasn't a total bust. A total of 147 severe storm reports after temporal and spatial filtering. The SPC are real topguns of the meteorological community when it comes to severe weather forecasting and most of their forecasts end up verifying remarkably well.

And yeah tsunami, even just some of those colder southwesterlies would be better than this groundhog day pattern. Still an issue of "we'll probably get some of that colder air next week but exactly how much colder is it going to be" at this stage.
A solid bank of very dark looking clouds are just about over me now with a solid burst of rainfall but hardly anything on Marburg radar not surprisingly.

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#1499252 - 22/05/2019 13:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 216
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Anybody interested in science and the stratosphere might want to have a look at the following:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/04/...eat-ozone-layer

if for nothing else than the accompanying image.

cheers
_________________________
Science is the only answer

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#1499253 - 22/05/2019 14:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 216
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Actually the video within that article is prescient in light of KK post re: severe storms/tornado outbreaks in the US/overshooting tops.
_________________________
Science is the only answer

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#1499268 - 22/05/2019 17:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Some obs re:200hpa jetstream pattern
sub polar jet only making it to about sydney latitude currently
With the sub tropical jet keeping the sub polar jet well constrained south, despite a decent neg dip in the AAO
..
my notes
...
Late May2019
the AAO has just had a strong dip in the negative direction. Past obs’ have shown the sub polar jet meanders with a strong negative trend.
and the sub polar belt expands to the north.
I have been surprised that the polar belt hasn’t contracted as far nth as l would have expected.
Looking for a possible reason why.
Here is a snap of the 200hpa , stratosphere jets.
It is a 124hr forecast but shows a 4 nodal wave pattern for the sub polar jet.in a few days time, becoming ordered here.
Nice and wavy as you would expect from the strong neg ‘ direction of the AAO
but look at the sub tropical jet…… Very zonal (straight) and contracted south.
I suspect the sub tropical jet is inhibiting the northern expansion of the sub polar jet
This keeps the cold well south and prevents cut off lows upper troughs breaking off and migrating north

Note this is a jetstream forecast for 5days time



Edited by crikey (22/05/2019 17:59)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1499269 - 22/05/2019 18:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 477
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
It would have been a scary time in Moore, Oklahoma.

The high risk forecast on the 20th marked the anniversary of the devastating EF5 tornado that struck the area 6 years prior.

Can only imagine how it feels to live in those areas in times like that.

I'd love to go there and experience the extreme weather, but it is a different matter entirely when your own home and loved ones are potentially at risk.
_________________________
Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1499293 - 23/05/2019 07:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE...23 MAY 2019 TIME..0745

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...14.8C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........86%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......13C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..W 2kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1026.5Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY......30KM
CURRENT WEATHER.........4/8 cloud, increasing.
RAIN SINCE 0900 WEDNESDAY..0.0mm.

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP........24.1C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP.....12.9C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN....12.7C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT.....14C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1026.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOURS MAX WIND GUST..SE 29 kph at 1031
LAST 24 HOURS WHR SUMMARY...No significant weather.

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#1499294 - 23/05/2019 08:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Noticing in papers a gradual increase in stories about the drought. Not surprising as it is relentlessly grinding on, getting worse each day. If you think it is a way "out- back" problem like so many journalists fall into the trap of writing, the massive, jaw-dropping rain deficiencies are right up to the Brisbane River and Scenic Rim in QLD and over onto the eastern side of the great divide in NSW. I see that EC(the simpler one for simple minds like mine)keeps putting something interesting at the end of it's run. See how it goes.
Cheers everyone.

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#1499297 - 23/05/2019 08:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
LDRcycles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2017
Posts: 108
Loc: Kin Kin, Qld
I wish we could send our rain your way Pete, I'm thoroughly sick of the constant on off showers, everything is turning to mush here.

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#1499298 - 23/05/2019 09:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Yes, LDRcycles, it's been one of those typical onshore shower type setups that can go on for weeks in Autumn. As Ken and others have said it looks like a more winter type pattern is setting in.

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#1499301 - 23/05/2019 09:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6821
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
Cold spell next week? GFS think 16 deg max up my way this time next week.

Sick of endless SE winds ..
_________________________

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#1499302 - 23/05/2019 10:56 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes Pete, quite frustrating when you look at places like the USA which just had its wettest 12 month period on record from April 2018 - April 2019. There farmland is flooded and ours is parched!
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1499303 - 23/05/2019 11:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Frustrating is the word, Michael. But I think severe drought in the US was the case not long ago and as we know there can be massive turnarounds in Australia, but it is a matter of waiting.

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#1499305 - 23/05/2019 11:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
They've even just had a violent large tornado go through areas near the northern and western outskirts of Joplin with extensive damage... on the same day 8 years ago of the infamous Joplin tornado.

I don't wish for such a devastating tornado right here but haven't even been able to manage anything other than isolated coastal showers here for the last gazillion weeks, let alone any significant weather.

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#1499307 - 23/05/2019 14:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Oh wow Ken, I have watched many videos about the Joplin tornado 8 years ago. There are some really good ones out there. What a disaster that was! Let’s hope it was not as bad this time around. After 2 years of “tornado drought”, out in the plains, the action is back in a big way!

We look forward to a totally new and refreshing airmass in about a weeks time. Time to bring in the firewood me thinks. Haven’t had the chance to use the fire place yet this year.

Yes Pete, let us hope for a change. It will happen sooner or later.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1499309 - 23/05/2019 15:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
Oh wow Ken, I have watched many videos about the Joplin tornado 8 years ago. There are some really good ones out there. What a disaster that was! Let’s hope it was not as bad this time around. After 2 years of “tornado drought”, out in the plains, the action is back in a big way!

The town itself dodged a bullet with the tornado going on to cause significant damage just to the west and north of town. But there's been a stack of other tornadoes that have affected parts of MO and OK with some looking nasty on doppler with impressive couplets and debris balls (radar analyses indicated some of the debris may have been lofted right up to 22,000ft - see this radar cross section: https://photos.app.goo.gl/8JQhV9FmRPiDLLgP6
as well as the dreaded night time tornadoes only being momentarily revealed by lightning.

As for the upcoming possible colder air, I haven't been paying too much attention to the finer details still being a number of days away but one thing I often find a useful proxy as to how much a model/s has upgraded or downgraded the coldness of the airmass is to compare the northernmost extent of the forecast snowfalls from run to run. A contraction much further southwards often correlates with a downgrade of the coldness and vice versa (of course other factors like moisture, etc play a part as well) but it's handy as an instant glance.

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#1499310 - 23/05/2019 15:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Yeah that's the big Time stuff alright over there, the stuff we can only dream about.Pretty pathetic when all we have to look forward to is a burst of cold air.

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#1499315 - 23/05/2019 17:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
And then again most people would say how lucky we are to live here in such stable weather and not be exposed to the constant fear of storms like those over in the U.S.

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