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#1493575 - 08/03/2019 20:56 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: DDstorm]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5506
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: DDstorm
Crikey. that is an awesome explanation of the up coming synoptic's. Will be following with baited breath. Thx heaps
DD


I will second that and not to mention I like Crikey's website too!!
_________________________
Rainfall
2018 - 1145.9mm
2019 MTD - 302.7mm
2019 YTD - 631.8mm

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#1493576 - 08/03/2019 20:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1669
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
OMG models don't agree on anything so DRY DRY DRY to continue i think. And Bom can you please get rid of your percent chances of rain in the forecast. Just say, a slight chance of a shower, that means more to people
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If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1493582 - 08/03/2019 21:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thanks for posting your detailed take on current & future weather patterns. Good job Crikey!
Maybe the wheel IS slowly turning the tap on. Noticed BOM ext forecast for us is optimistic for some precipitation.
Giving people hope only likely to be dashed.
I agree Paul, never been a fan of percentages. Plenty times its been 90% chance in favour of precip but its the 10% that keeps the dry, butt it is what it is so we need to put up with it.
Nothing is 100% in life except, you know how it ends.
Just off topic, damn amazing the number of full cattle trucks rumbling past in the last couple weeks. The drought is biting, either relocating to feed lots or knackery!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (08/03/2019 21:36)

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#1493585 - 08/03/2019 22:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10670
Loc: SWR
14.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am here from drizzle/showers.

An isolated storm this afternoon on the Northern Tablelands dumped 44mm at Glen Innes Airport. Localised stuff though, judging by the radar, the town itself (less than 10kms away) would have probably only got a millimetre or two.

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#1493586 - 08/03/2019 22:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 388
Loc: Tallai, QLD
MadElf, don't forget taxes, always a certainty.
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Just here for the weather

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#1493588 - 09/03/2019 00:52 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
planet x Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/02/2015
Posts: 70
Loc: Brisbane
Wow Crikey!!

Please don't apologise for the length. The info in your post is awesome.

I will need to read it several times to try to work it out.

So....how do you think this will all pan out?

Have you ever seen anything like this before.

Thanks for the awesome post and info.

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#1493589 - 09/03/2019 08:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
The weather pattern does seem very busy for the coming week, but looking at BoM's outlook for the week, just very high temps and not much rain. Whatever is really average now, March is supposed to be a wet and cooler month for eastern Australia. If one leaves out those areas that have had good rain so far this month, we need a lot more than hot weather and isolated storms. Hopefully, a couple of weeks down the track will bring us something big for rain, that is. Just looked at updated WATL. The second 4-day period showing something at least.

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#1493590 - 09/03/2019 08:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
The weather pattern does seem very busy for the coming week, but looking at BoM's outlook for the week, just very high temps and not much rain. Whatever is really average now, March is supposed to be a wet and cooler month for eastern Australia. If one leaves out those areas that have had good rain so far this month, we need a lot more than hot weather and isolated storms. Hopefully, a couple of weeks down the track will bring us something big for rain, that is. Just looked at updated WATL. The second 4-day period showing something at least.

I think a proportion of that signal is due to convective rainfall in the form of showers and storms in which case, any heavier falls might be pretty hit and miss.

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#1493592 - 09/03/2019 08:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Thanks for posting your detailed take on current & future weather patterns. Good job Crikey!
Maybe the wheel IS slowly turning the tap on. Noticed BOM ext forecast for us is optimistic for some precipitation.
Giving people hope only likely to be dashed.
I agree Paul, never been a fan of percentages. Plenty times its been 90% chance in favour of precip but its the 10% that keeps the dry, butt it is what it is so we need to put up with it.
Nothing is 100% in life except, you know how it ends.
Just off topic, damn amazing the number of full cattle trucks rumbling past in the last couple weeks. The drought is biting, either relocating to feed lots or knackery!

The forecasts already have the words “Slight”, etc in the text with the percentages in brackets. e.g. “Slight (20%) chance of a shower”.

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#1493593 - 09/03/2019 08:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
The weather pattern does seem very busy for the coming week, but looking at BoM's outlook for the week, just very high temps and not much rain. Whatever is really average now, March is supposed to be a wet and cooler month for eastern Australia. If one leaves out those areas that have had good rain so far this month, we need a lot more than hot weather and isolated storms. Hopefully, a couple of weeks down the track will bring us something big for rain, that is. Just looked at updated WATL. The second 4-day period showing something at least.


Would much rather a solid rain producer as well than just hot with possible thunderstorms.

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#1493594 - 09/03/2019 09:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE...9 MAR 2019 TIME..0750

CURRENT TEMPERATURE....24.8C
CURRENT HUMIDITY.........81%
CURRENT DEW POINT........21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...SSE 4Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1020.6hPA
CURRENT VISIBILITY......20KM
CURRENT WEATHER.........5/8 cloud, haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900 FRIDAY..0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....22.1C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....21C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1020.3Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 33kph at 1456
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Haze developed.

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#1493598 - 09/03/2019 10:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Ken Kato]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1669
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Correct Ken, but get rid of the percentages
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1493599 - 09/03/2019 10:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: paulcirrus]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
Correct Ken, but get rid of the percentages

Just ignore them then smile Easy.

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#1493600 - 09/03/2019 10:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warloq01 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/11/2018
Posts: 28
Is there an explanation why this warm/humid pattern has come back to terrorise?

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#1493606 - 09/03/2019 11:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2601
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Another day, another high in the Tasman sea.

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#1493608 - 09/03/2019 12:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 216
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
'Say it ain't so Joe': 33-35Cs coming round again this week.

I would have thought reducing day lengths would have contributed to reducing temp maximums?

For Brisbane how much of a daytime temp is due to already heated air arriving from the interior and warming further from compression as it drops over the range?

How does proximity to Moreton Bay/ocean moderate temperature - is it from sea-breezes and/or radiative cooling with water acting as a heat sink?
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Science is the only answer

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#1493610 - 09/03/2019 12:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Thanks, everybody for their posts.

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#1493617 - 09/03/2019 15:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: RC]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: RC
Another day, another high in the Tasman sea.


Clearly a troll post but I'll bite, can you please tell me what you are looking for on a synoptic chart other than no 'H' in the Tasman Sea as a sign of rain? Would you prefer westerlies blowing across the Tasman Sea instead?

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#1493620 - 09/03/2019 15:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: RC
Another day, another high in the Tasman sea.


Clearly a troll post but I'll bite, can you please tell me what you are looking for on a synoptic chart other than no 'H' in the Tasman Sea as a sign of rain? Would you prefer westerlies blowing across the Tasman Sea instead?


Edit time expired but I was going to say, no 'H' in Tasman Sea from Sunday till Wednesday due to a longwave trough but instead, hot, and for the most part, dry NW winds.

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#1493622 - 09/03/2019 15:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Rocky 2008 flood:



Rocky Jan 2010 flood:



Rocky Dec 2010 - Jan 2011 flood:



All have 'H' somewhere in the Tasman Sea. Case in point, there's more to it than just looking for a 'H' in the Tasman Sea to blame for a dry weather pattern. I think the question should be, why do these highs have nothing to interact with?

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