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#1488044 - 31/01/2019 09:34 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
bartholomu Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2011
Posts: 101
The problem with epic rain fall events is they are rare and dam filling rates from these events can be unrealised and never occurred prior, a factor that heightens risk. Earthen wall saturation over longer periods of saturation exposure are also a consideration with a lake that has a 15km long earthen wall. I live very close to this water storage and am very aware of the outcome of a dam failure event. The other problem is where does one evacuate when all roads and rivers to high ground are impassable. bungs in the boat and go for a wild ride !!

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#1488045 - 31/01/2019 09:38 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13366
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in Herbert and Lower Burdekin and parts of North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders Forecast Districts.

Issued at 8:27 am Thursday, 31 January 2019.

Heavy rain expected in the northeast tropics, flooding a high risk following recent rain
Plan Image

Weather Situation: The monsoon trough is expected to remain slow-moving across north Queensland for several days. Bands of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are likely within the warning area through the remainder of today and Friday.

At 8:15am AEST Thursday, the heaviest rainfall was occurring in areas between Giru and Ravenswood, with 135mm recorded in the last 3 hours at Major Creek (southwest of Giru).

Areas of heavy rainfall, which are likely to lead to flash flooding, are forecast between about Ingham and Ayr through today. Areas of heavy rainfall are likely to extend further north towards Innisfail overnight and during Friday. Six-hourly rainfall totals between 150mm to 200mm are likely, with isolated heavier falls possible, particularly with thunderstorms.

Creek and river catchments are already saturated and will therefore respond very rapidly to any rainfall.

Locations which may be affected include Innisfail, Tully, Cardwell, Lucinda, Ingham, Palm Island, Rollingstone, Townsville and Giru.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Thursday.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1488046 - 31/01/2019 09:40 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Vinnie]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13366
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Originally Posted By: Vinnie
Didn't the dam in Townsville hit 100 percent last year after years of being low?


It got into the 90's but didn't hit 100%.

It's currently above 124% and over 1 metre above the spillway...
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1488047 - 31/01/2019 09:42 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3633
That rain band has bee sitting over you guys for hours, does anyone have up to date totals?

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#1488048 - 31/01/2019 09:44 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: bartholomu]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: bartholomu
Better not to be to greedy with water storage when massive rain forecast rates have been forecasted for the next week.
.... sometimes acting earlier is wise when epic rain events have been forecast in my opinion.

The perception of greed with water storage is at best unfounded speculation... Very simply it is not lawful to store water that exceeds the nominated water supply capacity.
And sometimes quite wise to not release water earlier if it also raining downstream of the dam as doing so has high chance of making downstream flooding worse than it needs to be. Best to follow the operating rules.

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#1488050 - 31/01/2019 09:47 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
Leesome Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/09/2010
Posts: 253
Loc: North Ward, Townsville
I hope the rain goes away soon, stuck south and want to get home. frown this rain is not of much benefit anymore, dams are filled now it is just destructive.
_________________________
“The storm starts, when the drops start dropping
When the drops stop dropping then the storm starts stopping.” - Dr. Seuss

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#1488051 - 31/01/2019 09:53 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13366
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Police have told people to move their cars out of the cutting in the city due to possible landslides.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1488052 - 31/01/2019 09:54 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
bartholomu Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2011
Posts: 101
So what percentage of over 100% capacity is the nominated lawful water supply capacity. The failure of a dam causes far worse flooding than controlled releases period, Water is a commodity that is sold, more water more revenue. ask any cane farmer. Anyway I guess they have all under control.

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#1488053 - 31/01/2019 09:58 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13366
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
There's been a landslide on Sturt Street in the city:

https://twitter.com/TCC_News/status/1090726546397003776

A few schools are closed today:

https://closures.det.qld.gov.au/emergency/schools.html

Torrential rain in the CBD at the moment!!
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1488055 - 31/01/2019 10:10 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13366
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Transmitters serving the area between Giru and Ravenswood are REQUESTED TO USE THE STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL BEFORE BROADCASTING THIS MESSAGE.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in Herbert and Lower Burdekin and parts of North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders Forecast Districts.

Issued at 9:05 am Thursday, 31 January 2019.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRING AROUND THE HAUGHTON RIVER, FLOODING A HIGH RISK


Weather Situation: The monsoon trough is expected to remain slow-moving across north Queensland for several days. Bands of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are likely within the warning area through the remainder of today and Friday.

At 8:50am AEST Thursday, the heaviest rainfall was occurring in areas between Giru and Ravenswood, with 193mm recorded in the last 6 hours at Major Creek (southwest of Giru) and 179mm in the last 6 hours at Mt Piccaninny.

Areas of heavy rainfall, which are likely to lead to flash flooding, are forecast between about Ingham and Ayr through today. Areas of heavy rainfall are likely to extend further north towards Innisfail overnight and during Friday. Six-hourly rainfall totals between 150mm to 200mm are likely, with isolated heavier falls possible, particularly with thunderstorms.

Creek and river catchments are already saturated and will therefore respond very rapidly to any rainfall.

Locations which may be affected include Innisfail, Tully, Cardwell, Lucinda, Ingham, Palm Island, Rollingstone, Townsville and Giru.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 12:15 pm AEST Thursday.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1488056 - 31/01/2019 10:11 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14286
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
The dam is in no danger of collapsing. We get these stories about how the dam is about to fail, the Army is going to blow up the weirs etc and its all just nonsense designed to make people scared. If you have a question then just ask.

Plenty of people here who can put your mind at rest about such things. If the dam was ever going to collapse it would have been either during the Night of Noah when we had 728mm in 48 hours or during Yasi. As it didn't fail on either of these much worse weather events its not likely to now.

The water pressure on the walls is well with in specifications and to ensure it doesn't collapse they actually lowered the height of the spillway about 10 years ago after the spent umpteen millions reinforcing the 7klm of earth bank walls.

203mm to 0900hrs this morning.
_________________________
785mm Jan
799mm Feb
130 March
2019 Total 1714mm
2018 Total 822mm






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#1488065 - 31/01/2019 10:53 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 119
Loc: Ayr
46mm in our gauge in Ayr 🙂

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#1488069 - 31/01/2019 11:12 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13366
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Major Flood Warning for the Herbert River

Issued at 9:28 am EST on Thursday 31 January 2019

Flood Warning Number: 2

River levels may reach the major flood level on the Herbert River at Halifax during Thursday with forecast rainfall.

Rainfall totals of 30-60 mm have been recorded over the middle and lower Herbert River catchment since 9:00 am Wednesday, with locally higher falls to around 80 mm.

Further heavy rainfall is expected during Thursday, most likely continuing into Friday and over the weekend as the monsoon trough remains active over northern Queensland. This is likely to cause moderate to major flooding across the catchment over the coming days.
Herbert River to Nash's Crossing:

River level rises are occurring in the Herbert River to Nash's Crossing.

River level information is unavailable from Gleneagle Homestead (manual station) but levels are expected to be below the minor flood level (4.50 m). The river level is likely to exceed the minor flood level overnight Thursday into Friday with continued rainfall.
Herbert River downstream of Nash's Crossing:

Major flooding may occur along the Herbert River downstream of Nash's Crossing at Halifax.

The Herbert River at Abergowrie Bridge is currently at 7.11 metres and rising. The Herbert River at Abergowrie Bridge will remain around the minor flood level (6.00 m) during Thursday.

The Herbert River at Ingham Pump Station is currently at 8.07 metres and falling. The river level is likely to exceed the minor flood level (10.00 m) Thursday afternoon with continued rainfall.

The Herbert River at Gairloch is currently at 7.89 metres and rising. The river level is likely to exceed the minor flood level (9.50 m) early Thursday afternoon with continued rainfall.

The Herbert River at Halifax is currently above the minor flood level (4.00 metres) at 4.12 metres and rising. The river level may reach the major flood level (5.00 m) Thursday afternoon with continued rainfall.
Flood Safety Advice:

Remember: If it's flooded, forget it. For flood emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500. For life threatening emergencies, call Triple Zero (000) immediately.

Current emergency information is available at www.qld.gov.au/alerts
Next Issue:

The next warning will be issued by 05:30 pm EST on Thursday 31 January 2019.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1488072 - 31/01/2019 11:23 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1232
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
The Herbert will be in at least minor levels before the catchment gets real rain. its a bit concerning, although by the looks the upper western catchment may miss the real heavy stuff.
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1488100 - 31/01/2019 12:18 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
Wezza Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2008
Posts: 770
Loc: North Ward, Townsville. Toll, ...
This rain is relentless! There's some insane amounts of water around the place.

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#1488105 - 31/01/2019 12:27 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
exodus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/12/2007
Posts: 629
Loc: Mount Louisa, Townsville
Aplins Weir

31/01/2019 10:56 1.66
31/01/2019 11:11 1.71

so 0.06 off 1998 flood levels

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#1488111 - 31/01/2019 12:47 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13366
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in Herbert and Lower Burdekin and parts of North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders and Central Coast and Whitsundays Forecast Districts.

Issued at 11:30 am Thursday, 31 January 2019.

BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TO REDEVELOP, FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A HIGH RISK

Weather Situation: The monsoon trough is expected to remain slow-moving across north Queensland for several days. Bands of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are likely within the warning area through the remainder of today and Friday. Monsoon flow is forecast to increase across Cape York Peninsula on Friday and the weekend, which is likely to maintain or strengthen the monsoon trough.

Areas of heavy rainfall, which are likely to lead to flash flooding, are forecast between about Ingham and Ayr initially, with these conditions likely to extend further east towards Bowen and Proserpine later today, and north towards Innisfail overnight and during Friday. Six-hourly rainfall totals between 150mm to 200mm are likely, with isolated heavier falls possible, particularly with bands of thunderstorms.

Creek and river catchments are already saturated and will therefore respond very rapidly to any rainfall.

Longer term, the re-strengthening of the monsoon trough over the weekend may lead to multiple areas of heavy to intense rainfall over already saturated ground between about Innisfail and Bowen, with the potential for particularly significant and dangerous flash flooding.

Locations which may be affected include Innisfail, Tully, Cardwell, Lucinda, Ingham, Palm Island, Rollingstone, Townsville, Giru, Ayr, Bowen and Proserpine.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 2:45 pm AEST Thursday.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1488117 - 31/01/2019 13:08 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: SBT]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 535
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: SBT
The dam is in no danger of collapsing. We get these stories about how the dam is about to fail, the Army is going to blow up the weirs etc and its all just nonsense designed to make people scared. If you have a question then just ask.

Plenty of people here who can put your mind at rest about such things. If the dam was ever going to collapse it would have been either during the Night of Noah when we had 728mm in 48 hours or during Yasi. As it didn't fail on either of these much worse weather events its not likely to now.

The water pressure on the walls is well with in specifications and to ensure it doesn't collapse they actually lowered the height of the spillway about 10 years ago after the spent umpteen millions reinforcing the 7klm of earth bank walls.

203mm to 0900hrs this morning.

2001 - a panel of experts in dam safety and construction undertook an investigation of the dam. Over two years, the panel conducted studies of the dam's construction with the world standards.
2003 - The report confirmed that upgrades were required and by late 2003 because the dam moved 10 centimetres (3.9 in) a year. At that rate, the dam would have burst in a 10-year period, causing the whole suburb of Kelso to be inundated. The first stage of lowering the spillway by 3.5 metres (11 ft) was underway, the lowering of the existing spillway has been done so the installing of dam gates to control the flow downstream and water storage levels can begin.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ross_River_Dam

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#1488121 - 31/01/2019 13:38 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
Wezza Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2008
Posts: 770
Loc: North Ward, Townsville. Toll, ...
Water over the road on the Flinders Highway just on the Charters Towers side of the Reid River bridge. Burdekin bridge at Macrossan will probably go under later today I think.

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#1488125 - 31/01/2019 13:51 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - January 2019 [Re: Raindammit]
bartholomu Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2011
Posts: 101
501mm for Kelso drive so far for January at 12.45pm, wow this rain is not letting up whatsoever.

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