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#1484712 - 08/01/2019 19:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
The current subsurface data wipes out the developing cool pool in the west. If true this would make el nino much more likely the rest of the year. I think this is unlikely, and note that the current data is the output of a model, and is only partly based on observations. Waiting to see when govt shutdown finishes and we can see what TAO shows.

GFS shows a short burst of above average trades in the center later in the week and early next week, flanked by westerlies anomalies both west and east. It only lasts a few days before westerlies return. EC agrees over its forecast period but the return of the westerlies in GFS is beyond the 10 day EC period. EC does set up a large area of low pressure in central Pac which typically leads to westerlies by day 10, even more so than GFS, and current MJO forecasts suggest MJO back in the Pacific fairly quickly.

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#1484722 - 08/01/2019 19:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2601
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


GFS shows a short burst of above average trades in the center later in the week and early next week, flanked by westerlies anomalies both west and east.


But are they westerlies.

I have been watching and it has been rare to see real westerlies.

A lot of the time recently it has been south westerlies. They have been blowing at an angle to the equator.

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#1484757 - 08/01/2019 23:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 275
Looks like westerlies to me.

Sub-surface cooling mightn't do a lot for present status if processes like entrainment are stymied.

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#1484791 - 09/01/2019 09:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
Outflow from Asia has weakened waiting for the next intense Siberian high, so has the westerly flow, not helped by slow moving westward moving low now near India.

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#1484798 - 09/01/2019 09:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
After a decent lull the SSL anomaly chart has been updated to Jan 3rd, shows no low level anomaly at Nino.4 (or any area across EQ Pacific atm).

I see SST cooling through Nino.3 into Nino3.4, no tropical cloud W of the dateline and the MJO strong at the moment in phase 8 near dateline - set to go null quickly over the next 4-5 days acc. to all MJO models.

The WWB zone above New Guinea into Nino.4 zone looks to be reducing back to a more normal trade wind regime (anomaly evident over past 5 days or so has weakened significantly imo.

Hottest new equatorial SST on earth is in the GOC atm, waters off Broome continuing to creep up warmer.

So I reckon a tropical storm mooted to form near Darwin during the weekend, per several models, looks a high chance. That would stir things up rainwise for Aus should it develop.

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#1484799 - 09/01/2019 10:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Kino
[quote=BoM]


The state of the present is typically based on the anomaly, yet to me, there is no consensus on the anomaly base line time frame, see above, yet for example, CDAS uses 1981-2010.

I bet you could change the SST anomaly by up to a degree by simply selecting either of the two datasets outlined on this post!

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#1484800 - 09/01/2019 10:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Oops re: "no tropical cloud W of the dateline" in my post #1484798 above that should read E of the dateline, not W.

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#1484841 - 09/01/2019 15:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2601
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: Petros
That would stir things up rainwise for Aus should it develop.


Seems to me the highs are still stagnant off New Zealand stopping the ridge along inland queenland to move.

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#1484923 - 10/01/2019 10:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep RC, the hated Quidge. Kills rain in SE Vic too.

Nino3.4 seems to be trending cooler rather than warmer?:



Their is a tongue of cooler actual SST along EQ Pacific into Nino.3 becoming evident in the daily actual SST chart on Tropical Tidbits - right where Windy shows the trades blowing healthily.

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#1484950 - 10/01/2019 15:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 739
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Next few weeks looks to be torrid throughout the continent. SAM looks to be shifting into a negative phase. Highs will be sitting north enough for ridging through inland AUS. Definitely locking a dry and hot period.

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#1484958 - 10/01/2019 16:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Donít like the look of that Ash. Not good for bush fires. If it does go south I feel the affects have a lag of one or 2 weeks.

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#1484961 - 10/01/2019 16:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
_________________________


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#1484970 - 10/01/2019 17:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8802
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
The models have the highs about their average position for the forseeable future, seems to be a bit of a shift in patterns toward the end of the latest EC run. One thing I'm watching is the possible TC off WA and how much interaction it will have with the upcoming heat fronts. From experience, the end of Jan/early Feb are potent when it comes to tropical systems interacting with the southern ones. Next few weeks will tell a story.

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#1485058 - 11/01/2019 11:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
MJO set to go null over the weekend, going by todays SatIR .....looks like it's already null imo.

So we now wait to see if a tropical system develops near Darwin next week?

Good rain in FNQ from Penny still occurring, nice to see.

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#1485093 - 11/01/2019 16:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Looks like the AAO has backed off. Only neg for a few days . Letís hope this trend continues.

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#1485118 - 11/01/2019 18:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
GFS latest run has now "seen" a tropical low to develop off Darwin early next week as per CMC/EC/AccG have been mooting for several days.

For my 2 bob's - would have bet that ex TC Penny's remnants would have stirred up a storm in the GOC before then. Probably explains why Petros never made the Aus rich list.

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#1485159 - 11/01/2019 20:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
You should probably post less. Petros .

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#1485231 - 12/01/2019 16:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5339
Loc: Not tellin!
Rude much?

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#1485233 - 12/01/2019 17:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Tiss OK, I'm sure that most regular posters on here know that I'm only a weather tiro.

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#1485241 - 12/01/2019 19:09 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Is it a weather thread or climate? What happened to the widespread rain and cyclone off Darwin? Does 30 years of data insufficient to 3 months of screenshots of sstís? If you want people to believe you. Post less. Oh IMO!

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