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#1475813 - 14/11/2018 18:06 WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
Early season action?

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 14 November 2018
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 17 November 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

At 1pm WST Wednesday Ex Tropical Cyclone Bouchra lies near 6S 91E, about 940 kilometres northwest of Cocos Island and is currently outside the Western region. There is a slight chance the system may reintensify and move into the far northwestern parts of the region for a period late this week as it moves southwest towards the central Indian Ocean.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:Low
Friday:Moderate
Saturday:Moderate

Thunderstorm activity in continuing to increase over the tropical Indian Ocean associated with a trough. At 1pm WST a weak tropical low was located within the trough west of Java near 9S 102E, about 450 kilometres northwest of Christmas Island. This low is expected to move into the Western region [south of 10S] on Thursday morning and may develop into a tropical cyclone as it tracks southwestward over the coming days.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:Moderate
Friday:Moderate
Saturday:Moderate

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/nwcyclone.shtml
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1475826 - 14/11/2018 19:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3749
Loc: Broome


Yes saw this one start spinning off to the North West YS.

The Broome coast was forecast for strong North easterlies but we have come under the influence of this system giving us the onshore winds being drawn up from further south.

Be interesting to see what happens in the next few days as it
manoeuvres around off the coast of Java.

Will keep an eye on it for sure.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1475838 - 15/11/2018 01:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3749
Loc: Broome


Got a bit of circulation with lots of moisture to feed on especially to the north which should help with intensification.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1475856 - 15/11/2018 11:44 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3749
Loc: Broome
Short lived was TC Bouchra unfortunately got ripped apart by strong wind shear which invariably let to its demise .

This info below from NASA.

Tropical Cyclone Bouchra formed on Nov. 10 in the Southern Indian Ocean and was already on its way to dissipation when NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite passed overhead on Nov. 13.

Bouchra formed on Nov. 10 around 4 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC) about 220 miles northwest of Cocos Island, near 5.5 degrees south latitude and 90.7 east longitude. It was the fourth tropical cyclone of the Southern Indian Ocean cyclone season.

On Nov. 13, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite analyzed Tropical Depression Bouchra showed a disorganized storm. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted the storm appeared to have "shallow disorganized central convection sheared eastward, partly exposing a weak and ragged low level circulation."

Wind shear was stretching the storm out from west to east. In general, wind shear is a measure of how the speed and direction of winds change with altitude. Winds at different levels of the atmosphere pushed against the cylindrical circulation center and skewed it, weakening the rotation.

On Nov., 13 at 4 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC) Bouchra's maximum sustained winds had dropped to 34.5 mph (30 knots/55.5 kph). It was located approximately 495 nautical miles northwest of Cocos Island near 7.2 degrees south latitude and 90.3 degrees east longitude. Bouchra was moving southeastward, and will dissipate later in the day.


_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1475932 - 16/11/2018 16:33 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3749
Loc: Broome
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 12:40 pm WST on Thursday 15 November 2018
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 18 November 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


Ex Tropical Cyclone Bouchra lies near 7S 91E, about 850 kilometres northwest of Cocos Island and is currently outside the Western region. There is a slight chance the system may reintensify and move into the far northwestern parts of the region for a period during Friday or Saturday. If the system does enter the region, it will be for a short period of time and quickly move out of the region in a southwesterly direction.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Friday:
Low

Saturday:
Low

Sunday:
Very Low

Another tropical low lies near 10S 103E, about 240 kilometres west of Christmas Island. This low is expected to move in a southwesterly direction over the next few days, away from Christmas Island. There is a moderate chance that the system may reach Tropical Cyclone strength during Friday, with a low chance on Saturday. If the system becomes a Tropical Cyclone, it is likely to pass well to the south of Cocos Island, over open waters.



There are no other lows in the Western region and none are expected to develop in the next seven days.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Friday:
Moderate

Saturday:
Low

Sunday:
Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.


Very Low:
less than 5%

Low:
5% to 20%

Moderate:
20 to 50%

High:
Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and south of 10S.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1476080 - 18/11/2018 19:33 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3749
Loc: Broome
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:31 pm WST on Sunday 18 November 2018
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 21 November 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak tropical low lies near 15S 98E, about 380 kilometres south of Cocos Island and is moving towards the west over open waters. This system is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone.
Tropical Cyclone Bouchra reintensified to tropical cyclone intensity early on Sunday and lies west of 90E, outside the Western Region. The system will continue to steer in a west to southwesterly direction away from the region.

There are no other lows in the Western region and none are expected to develop in the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region on:

Monday:
Very Low
Tuesday:
Very Low
Wednesday:
Very Low
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1480384 - 14/12/2018 14:57 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 225
Loc: Cable Beach
So Christmas day/boxing day.....any takers?

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#1480388 - 14/12/2018 15:02 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7909
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
There are little hints at something forming but then next model run its gone. I fly out on the 27th so I reckon about then.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1480391 - 14/12/2018 15:05 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3749
Loc: Broome
Yes Pops everytime you leave we have some good action the next day ..... wink

I suppose we got to let the QLDers have a bit of fun first though....
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1480622 - 14/12/2018 23:21 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 225
Loc: Cable Beach
Hi guys thought I would just chuck out a line and see what, who was biting. Can't wait for our first one....whenever that might be.

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#1481464 - 17/12/2018 21:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7909
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
GFS has a few LOWS floating around the Nwest Xmas to New Years. Hope something eventuates from them. It is so often the case we get one in that week. Be nice to cop a flogging crappy stormy day for Xmas and then fly out on the 27th. Cat 1-2 be nice.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1481477 - 17/12/2018 23:56 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 225
Loc: Cable Beach
Sure would be good. Ec does not seem to interested. But here is hoping

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#1481557 - 19/12/2018 00:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 253
Loc: Karratha, WA
So monsoonal low developing around NT around Xmas and moving westwards, here’s hoping this will be the start of our rain ☔️

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#1482746 - 26/12/2018 18:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: Weathergrrl]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4202
Loc: El Arish
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 26 December 2018
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 29 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no tropical lows in the Western Region at present.

A weak tropical low could form over the western Arafura Sea or eastern Timor Sea and track westwards into the Western Region over the weekend. The tropical low is only a slight risk of reaching tropical cyclone intensity, and could move into the region from Saturday.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:Very Low
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Low

There are no other tropical systems expected to develop in the Western Region for the next three days.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:Very Low
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Very Low

http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/nwcyclone.shtml
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1484816 - 09/01/2019 12:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 253
Loc: Karratha, WA
What is everyone’s thoughts our first touch of the action next week? Are we thinking the TL will sail past with just some rain for us?

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#1484822 - 09/01/2019 12:21 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 218
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Be interesting to see what happens, going by Access G. Long way out though.

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#1484985 - 10/01/2019 18:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2953
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G has been going off a decent TC near the top end and NW WA this week.
There is one low , one possible cyclone ( 140 e 5 N) forecast to form in about 6 days time... over the equator in the Northern Hemisphere.

These lows appear to be stealing some of our NW infeed into the monsoon trough, which consequently is weakening our monsoon trough in places.
The coral sea in particular.

A weak low , possibly ex penny is tracking west into south GOC area on Friday 11th jan and
over the top end on Saturday
Very weak over NW WA and top end on sunday and monday( elongated low)
Small rotation Pops out to sea on Monday 14th Jan

Tuesday the 15th the low and troughing there finally connect to the monsoon trough.. 122e 12 s
Then there could possibly be something to look at..

I have hot wired this ACCESS gradient wind map ( greater Australia region) It will update each day



source
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1485270 - 13/01/2019 09:02 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2953
Loc: Tweed Heads
Nice blob of convection west of Darwin.



ACCESS r says it is positioned on western flank of an elongated low up there this morning. That blob has a nice symmetrical look like it could form into a TC. ACCESS G say that will be the case .
Current forecast is for TC status Friday the 18th JAN. The forecast TC is well of shore on Friday ( 110e 14s )and ACCESS has it currently tracking west.
Certainly worth the watch. These things are like boomerangs sometimes.
Before this possible INVEST forms, an area of elongated troughing forms off shore of the NW coast on Tuesday 1th Jan.
Maybe some rain for the coast here which will be on the southern flank of this long elongated low.

The low could be called an INVEST on Wednesday 16th Jan
with the NW coast on his eastern flank

ACCESS G is showing a precipitation signal for the NW quadrant of WA from Tuesday onwards with what appears to be a build up of moisture with this low in the area
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (13/01/2019 09:06)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1485319 - 13/01/2019 18:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3749
Loc: Broome

Outlook From BOM .

IDW10800
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Sunday 13 January 2019
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 16 January 2019.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

There are no tropical lows in the Western Region at present.

A tropical low (11U) is likely to develop within a deepening trough over the western Top End of the Northern Territory or adjacent Timor Sea later today or Monday morning (outside the Western Region). The tropical low is forecast to track west over the Timor Sea on Monday and Tuesday and gradually begin tracking west to southwest over the Browse Basin later on Tuesday with a slight possibility of reaching tropical cyclone intensity later in the day. By Wednesday there is a greater risk of the system reaching tropical cyclone intensity, though by this time the system is expected to be over the Indian Ocean, well to the northwest of the Kimberley with minimal risk of affecting the West Australian mainland. In the longer term, the system will continue to track to the west-southwest throughout next week, well to the north of WA over the the Indian Ocean.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:
Very Low
Tuesday:
Low
Wednesday:
Moderate
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1485344 - 13/01/2019 22:05 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2018/2019 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
vorts Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2019
Posts: 127
Very much looks like this invest is the left overs of once x-tropicallow penny bein reinvigorated within the trades.
https://imgur.com/k0CUAD7


https://imgur.com/MvfEEa8
GFS almost had the tracking spot on

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