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#1484812 - 09/01/2019 11:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Some good solid showers here this morning.
Makes a change.

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#1484875 - 09/01/2019 19:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC - ridge continues till the end of its run (19th)
GFS - trying to introduce a trough from the south around the 18th but largely favouring inland parts at this stage.

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#1484878 - 09/01/2019 19:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 571
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Some good solid showers here this morning.
Makes a change.
can you send it this way next time please.....some dark skies today to get my hopes up is as good as it's gotten here of late, but not a drop has fallen sadly....gauge still been reading 0.0mm for a while now.

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#1484913 - 10/01/2019 08:51 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..10 JAN 2019 TIME..0745

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........76%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...ENE 8Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1015.0HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........25KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........7/8 cloud, slight rain.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........Trace.

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......29.9C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....24.5C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...22.4C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1013.7Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 30kph at 1106
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Slight overnight and early morning rain, not enough to register

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#1485013 - 10/01/2019 20:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1254
Loc: Warwick, QLD
1mm here last night. Another warm day at 32C, but nothing too extreme so far this month. Most of the heat remains out west, where it belongs.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1485015 - 10/01/2019 20:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Recent runs of the EC ensemble for Brisbane have been suggesting a general increase in max temps later next week as winds turn more northeasterly.

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#1485019 - 10/01/2019 20:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC - ridge right through till the 19th. Another high that winds up taking a northerly path into the northern Tasman / southern Coral Sea. Bad.
GFS - still trying to introduce a trough on the 19th but only before being quickly being cleared away by a new ridge. Apart from said trough, other dynamics look very similar to EC.

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#1485025 - 10/01/2019 21:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Adam Ant Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/10/2003
Posts: 1075
Loc: West Toowoomba
8 years since the Toowoomba and Lockyer Valley floods. I'm still haunted by the post I made on here during the storm. I knew what the creeks were like that morning in the upper Lockyer and I knew that there would be a wall of water coming down the range after the storm. I wish I rang the Grantham pub to warn them, hindsight is a wonderful thing though.


Edited by Adam Ant (10/01/2019 21:59)

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#1485030 - 11/01/2019 01:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Adam Ant]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Adam Ant
8 years since the Toowoomba and Lockyer Valley floods. I'm still haunted by the post I made on here during the storm. I knew what the creeks were like that morning in the upper Lockyer and I knew that there would be a wall of water coming down the range after the storm. I wish I rang the Grantham pub to warn them, hindsight is a wonderful thing though.


That was a week I'll never forget, especially the lead-up to and flooding of Brisbane. Also following these forums on the day of the Toowoomba/Lockyer Valley storm and flash flooding was one of the most eerie experiences I've ever had. I think this forum was probably the best and most important news source in any media that day. The posts on here were just miles ahead in predicting and reporting on the unfolding event, with reference to all the available weather data as well.

With our overall warm and dry weather of recent years it just seems almost impossible to imagine another extended spell of cool, overcast and very rainy weather like we had in the back-end of 2010 and Jan 2011. Brisbane didn't hit 30 that spring/summer until the second week of December. The ground was so wet in the months before Jan that your shoes would literally sink into the soil with water spurting out.

Interestingly, we've had a significant '1 in 100 year' rain event in SEQ every 2 years this decade:

Jan 2011 floods
Oswald 2013
May 2015 ECL (and also a visit from ex-TC Marcia)
Debbie 2017
2019?

Despite the many dry spells we've had more frequent visits from tropical systems and major rain events this decade than in the 80s, 90s and 00s.


Edited by Nature's Fury (11/01/2019 01:31)

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#1485031 - 11/01/2019 01:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR663-brisbane/2011-01-08-15/2011-01-12-15

Here's the entire rain event as it unfolded. A few moments of note:

10/1/11 - 10am to 2:30 am (Brisbane Valley/Toowoomba storm)

Really interesting to see how this developed. This was actually a slow-moving storm, not convergence, rain trains or any other kind of usual rain event pattern. There had been a clearing in the morning allowing the sun to poke through and fire up two storms (1 over north Brisbane and 1 over the southern SC that converged over the Brisbane Valley). It spent 2 hours crawling through the Valley into the Ranges, which was unusual considering how much faster the rest of the rain in the event moved.

11/1/11 - 4 am - 2pm (rain train over the dams)

This was what really buggered Wivenhoe and ensured Brisbane would flood. An extra 200-300+ mm.

I remember that event that there were 3 times when some posters on here per-emptively called the event over. One was on 9/1 when the rain was focused entirely over SC and Caboolture, 10/1 when the clearing happened in the morning (before the storm developed) and then that night when all activity seemed to diminish to showers.

I never thought we'd see a 1974 flood again. Following the event, then spending hours walking around the local area which was under 13 metres of water and then the days of cleaning up houses was a surreal event.

I wonder if we will see anything like it again? The climatic patterns that caused the La Nina/IOD/high SSTs, massive moisture infeed to Australia, set-up rain events and then finally the culminating event in Jan 2011 were exceptional. We hadn't had anything even remotely like that in decades since the 70s. With the changing climate it seems more likely that we'll have more long warm, dry spells like we're seeing these days with occasional violent rain events. Those violent rain events probably wouldn't be enough to flood the Brisbane River to a major level, especially as dam management would be very careful now?


Edited by Nature's Fury (11/01/2019 02:05)

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#1485040 - 11/01/2019 08:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1266
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
It will happen again , and again , we just donít know when.

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#1485042 - 11/01/2019 08:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..11 JAN 2019 TIME..0720

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.4C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........73%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...SE 12Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1018.3HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........2/8 cloud.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........Trace.

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.9C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....21.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...20.7C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1016.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NE 34kph at 1530
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Slight early morning shower, not enough to register.

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#1485043 - 11/01/2019 08:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Adam Ant Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/10/2003
Posts: 1075
Loc: West Toowoomba
Great post NF. Yep totally agree with you about this forum on that day. AC was 100% spot on with his forecast that morning, that post along with a few others on here featured in the royal commission.

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#1485051 - 11/01/2019 09:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Those violent rain events probably wouldn't be enough to flood the Brisbane River to a major level, especially as dam management would be very careful now?


If the 2017 Ex TC Debbie 400 to 500 mm widespread rainfall that fell over the area of Nerang River, Logan-Albert River, and Northern NSW river basins had instead fallen 150 km NNW over the Brisbane River catchment, or 80 km NW over the Bremer and Lockyer catchments Brisbane River would have easily got over major flood level. The Brisbane River catchment flood study publicly released in early 2017 showed much bigger floods than 2011 are possible but have low probability.

As for dam management, it has not actually been proven yet the dams were mismanaged in 2011, that still remains speculation stirred up by the media through 2011. The flood commission of inquiry found that the dams achieved close to the best possible flood mitigation. The class action litigation underway since 2014 is due to have judgement handed down this year.

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#1485059 - 11/01/2019 11:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1883
Loc: Kingaroy
If it's happened before, it will happen again. I wonder how SEQ would cope with a flood of 1890s or 1840s size?

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#1485060 - 11/01/2019 11:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
According to the latest Drought Statement by The BOM apart from certain areas of Australia, the rainfall deficiencies have increased during December especially, over Southern QLD and Northern NSW. What story will the statement issued in Feb tell? Interesting reading the posts about that terrible time. I have learned since moving here how people up here are still affected by it.

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#1485061 - 11/01/2019 11:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090




Incidentally, there was also remarkable flooding in parts of VIC in January (with 2 deaths) at almost exactly the same time as the Jan 2011 QLD floods but were overshadowed in the headlines by the latter.

One of my friends who lives in NW VIC didn't have power for over a week.

Anyway, above is the latest forecast probabilities of above/below normal precip averaged across next month from several models (calibrated to past comparisons between forecasts and observed outcomes). These are split into terciles (not in two lots of 50% for above and below normal).

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#1485062 - 11/01/2019 12:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
I provided a 90 minute presentation during a 2011 ASWA meeting on the events surrounding the 2011 Brisbane Floods and the how dam operators responded to an incredibly dynamic set of conditions.

This covered the initial conditions leading up, where most of SE QLD had become supersaturated leading to 100% runoff and even small amounts of rainfall pushing rivers and creeks into major flood.

It went into the original forecasts for the higher rainfall to occur to the South of the catchments, and then the actual 1 in 2000 year rainfall rates for a period of 6 hours directly over the Wivenhoe catchment on 11th January.

Finally, the modeling that shows in the absence of the dams the 2011 flood levels at the city gauge would have been 7m instead of the 4.5m that they eventually peaked at.

We got very lucky in 2011. If that 6 hour rainfall rate on 11th January 2011 had extended for 2-3 more hours it would have added 1-2m to the peak at the city gauge and many more meters to the flood levels upstream.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1485070 - 11/01/2019 14:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
According to the latest Drought Statement by The BOM apart from certain areas of Australia, the rainfall deficiencies have increased during December especially, over Southern QLD and Northern NSW. What story will the statement issued in Feb tell? Interesting reading the posts about that terrible time. I have learned since moving here how people up here are still affected by it.


GFS - trough pretty much gone. Ridge right through until the 25th.
EC - Ridge right through till the end of its outlook 20th.

Funny how the next high yet again slows to a crawl once hitting the western Tasman Sea. Is it just me, or is this pattern becoming more common and more prolonged over recent years' summers?

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#1485072 - 11/01/2019 14:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Edit time expired...

But to the older and more wiser users of this forum who grew up in QLD, can you remember extended dry periods like this occurring so frequently as they have over the last few years? I know it will break....eventually...but it seems like these periods are becoming, as I said, more common and more prolonged during our summers. I grew up in the '90s which was considered a dry period but I don't remember it being this bad.

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