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#1493470 - 07/03/2019 21:42 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6397
Loc: Dural
Those records at Marsfield make fascinating reading.

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#1493501 - 08/03/2019 09:37 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blair Trewin Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3983
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Looked up Marsfield. The only Bureau instrument there is the ceilometer - the other instruments are owned by Macquarie University and don't feed into the Bureau data stream.

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#1493507 - 08/03/2019 10:32 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
kizz Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2202
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Ceilometer. Not sure if that is for cloud deck heights or some gyprock tool you can get at the hardware store.

Spent many hours at the original Mac Uni weather station before it made way for the school of management building. Even though I was there a lot and majored in Climatology at the school of earth sciences, I never saw anyone take measurements and had no idea who would.
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#1493508 - 08/03/2019 10:37 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Blair Trewin]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
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Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2983
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Looked up Marsfield. The only Bureau instrument there is the ceilometer - the other instruments are owned by Macquarie University and don't feed into the Bureau data stream.


So no new AWS then? frown

MU have a link to their AWS, but unfortunately it doesn't work.

http://aws.mq.edu.au/
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#1493510 - 08/03/2019 11:00 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Sunny and partly cloudy this morning, a big improvement on yesterday's (anticyclonic?) gloom. A number of Sydney stations got a bonus addition to yesterday's maximum, including OH: 22.1 --> 23.9.

Sydney's forecast for tomorrow was updated at 9:28. Rainfall totals have been upped to 5-20 mm (4-15 at Penrith) with a possible thunderstorm. A low is expected develop off the South Coast. What happens where will depend upon its exact position.

Meanwhile, the second week of GFS is showing a 100 mm bullseye over Sydney in a fortnight's time.

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#1493512 - 08/03/2019 11:26 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Mcbobbings Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 133
The second week of GFS has been hinting at a cool down and some rain for the past two weeks. Unfortunately it is yet to deliver.

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#1493513 - 08/03/2019 12:16 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
kizz Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2202
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
That is why extended GFS is a fantasy forecast for me. A US based weather podcast had some scathing comments recently regarding the updated GFS model; not ready for release was the gist of it.

Conversely, I have noticed that over the summer, GFS extended did get the heatwave(s) correct.
Every time Steve777 mentioned it was predicting a rain and/or cool down event, it never happened. It got to the point where, as a heat lover, I thought Steve777 had some quantum observer effect on this and was cheering every time he mentioned it.
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#1493516 - 08/03/2019 12:59 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Jimi Offline
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Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 1129
Loc: Killara
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Looked up Marsfield. The only Bureau instrument there is the ceilometer - the other instruments are owned by Macquarie University and don't feed into the Bureau data stream.


So no new AWS then? frown

MU have a link to their AWS, but unfortunately it doesn't work.

http://aws.mq.edu.au/


The North Shore really needs a proper BOM AWS, either on the North Shore line/Pacific Highway or the Northern Line (Pennant Hills Rd). Maybe Hornsby would be realistic... At the moment Terrey Hills is not representative compared to the less exposed inhabited areas further inland, it's too close to the coast, is in no man's land a bit though I accept it's a great place for a radar.

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#1493524 - 08/03/2019 13:55 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: CoastalStorm22]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5491
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Looked up Marsfield. The only Bureau instrument there is the ceilometer - the other instruments are owned by Macquarie University and don't feed into the Bureau data stream.


So no new AWS then? frown

MU have a link to their AWS, but unfortunately it doesn't work.

http://aws.mq.edu.au/


To heavily populated there for a AWS, it needs to be in a homestead or small town where the population is less than 20 and also be expected to crack the 50c mark!! poke laugh
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2018 - 1145.9mm
2019 MTD - 302.7mm
2019 YTD - 631.8mm

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#1493566 - 08/03/2019 19:27 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5491
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Not much talk about tomorrows storm potential?
Worth a thread? could be some severe storm about imo.
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2018 - 1145.9mm
2019 MTD - 302.7mm
2019 YTD - 631.8mm

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#1493569 - 08/03/2019 19:48 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Well, what can I say? GFS is showing a troughy, Easterly pattern becoming established by the end of next week, with rain, possibly heavy, over much of the State, with heavy falls in the NE inland and the coast North from the Illawarra.

The GFS rainfall prediction is as follows. The 100 mm bullseye over Sydney is now gone:



Of course it might all change. GFS days 9-16 have often shown a switch to Easterlies with rain and cooler conditions during the Summer just past, but the existing pattern with a Tasman High, a weak ridge South of the continent and the Quidge would re-assert itself. Or the cooldown may be shorter and less pronounced, as for Feb 20-23.

Access looks more mixed, more or less a continuation of the current pattern. Meanwhile Weather.com seems to be consistent with GFS, with the SE quarter dominating from the end of next week, with showers, 'rain' and storms:

Weather.com Sydney (will update)

If weather were a democracy, I'd vote for Access.

We shall see.

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#1493570 - 08/03/2019 20:14 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 737
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
EC is also going for a similar pattern as well, but with less inland rain over NSW, but the Northern Coast looks like it will get hammered.

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#1493577 - 08/03/2019 20:58 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: EddyG]
lightning chaser Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/06/2007
Posts: 548
Loc: nowra NSW
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Not much talk about tomorrows storm potential?
Worth a thread? could be some severe storm about imo.


Keep the camera handy and limit beer consumption so you can drive. Wind shear and instability looking ok, but upper temps are slightly warm and there will be some cloud about.
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#1493579 - 08/03/2019 21:15 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: lightning chaser]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5491
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: lightning chaser
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Not much talk about tomorrows storm potential?
Worth a thread? could be some severe storm about imo.


Keep the camera handy and limit beer consumption so you can drive. Wind shear and instability looking ok, but upper temps are slightly warm and there will be some cloud about.


Yes, where is the like button when you need it? I will pay that one, had a good chuckle grin
Well I have no car at the moment, gear box shat itself. Beer - well I do have a cricket training run after lunch in prep for next weeks GF, no doubt there will be the odd ale consumed. Like you mentioned upper temps are a worry.
One good thing is I may have a dedicated driver tomorrow arvo, if things go to plan storm wise.
Here's hoping anyway and the camera is ready.

Cheers guys.
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Rainfall
2018 - 1145.9mm
2019 MTD - 302.7mm
2019 YTD - 631.8mm

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#1493581 - 08/03/2019 21:24 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10665
Loc: SWR
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Looked up Marsfield. The only Bureau instrument there is the ceilometer - the other instruments are owned by Macquarie University and don't feed into the Bureau data stream.


So no new AWS then? frown

MU have a link to their AWS, but unfortunately it doesn't work.

http://aws.mq.edu.au/


To heavily populated there for a AWS, it needs to be in a homestead or small town where the population is less than 20 and also be expected to crack the 50c mark!! poke laugh
On the subject of BOM's Automatic Weather Stations, a few more of them on the Mid North Coast would be nice!
There are only 4 AWSs on the Mid North Coast. Compared to other coastal forecast districts: Northern Rivers (9 AWSs), Hunter (13 AWSs), Sydney Metro (21 AWSs), Illawarra (9 AWSs), and South Coast (7 AWSs).

It makes for quite a hole in official and live weather observations between Newcastle and Grafton.
I've whited out (well "blued" out) the BOM weather stations within the coastal forecast districts which are manual stations (and not AWSs). The MNC sticks out like a sore thumb for AWS scarcity.

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#1493587 - 08/03/2019 23:12 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
DVC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/11/2011
Posts: 415
Loc: Goulburn NSW
i dont get our synoptic charts anymore - we seem to have a massive increase in trough depictions in the last year or so - very hard to read and extract information on air flows etc! is it just me? check out the latest from 5pm with four almost parallel and closely spaced. really?


Edited by DVC (08/03/2019 23:13)
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#1493605 - 09/03/2019 11:24 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5491
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze


It makes for quite a hole in official and live weather observations between Newcastle and Grafton.
I've whited out (well "blued" out) the BOM weather stations within the coastal forecast districts which are manual stations (and not AWSs). The MNC sticks out like a sore thumb for AWS scarcity.


Totally agree, one place that I would love to see an AWS would be Seal Rocks, one would be for tracking southerly, two would be for rainfall and plus its has a very small population too!! laugh
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2018 - 1145.9mm
2019 MTD - 302.7mm
2019 YTD - 631.8mm

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#1493607 - 09/03/2019 11:53 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1276
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Already hit our forecast of 34C before midday, now it is dropping back a bit.
Still as hot as buggery, and looking like it until mid next week at least.

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#1493609 - 09/03/2019 12:16 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Mostly thick overcast here, 8/8 cloud cover. The cloud rolled in just before sunrise and the temperature's been mostly stuck on 22 since then. The sun tried to break through a little while ago. There's been some rain, but not enough to register.

Not sure about storm chances. There is a massive storm way out to sea SE of Sydney, but nothing on land or near the coast. Maybe something will develop later but it doesn't look likely here. We'll see.

Just saw my first Autumn colours, a tree in Chatswood which is always first to turn, about a month before most other deciduous trees start. The other apparent sign of Autumn is NRLon the front pages, mostly scandals.

EDIT: re the Mid North coast, it does represent a transition zone between temperate (Newcastle Southwards) and subtropical (Northwards from about Port Macquarie). Southerly changes go there to die. They mostly reach Newcastle but fizzle out before Port Macquarie. An AWS or two in that area would be interesting.


Edited by Steve777 (09/03/2019 12:22)

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#1493611 - 09/03/2019 13:28 Re: NSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2202
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Need more military bases on the MNC in that case. I've seen lots of new AWSs appear around the country with the (Defence) suffix.

One of those right off days weatherwise here. Gusty southerly to ruin the water activities. Overcast and occasional light drizzle to ruin any other outdoor activities.
The rain has stopped here but everything is now wet. Nuisance wet.
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