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#1500883 - 20/06/2019 08:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 216
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
How cool is the Himawari sat pic from about 7am this morning - the NW/SE cloud band cutting just south of Bris. resemble giant muscle fibres with cross-ways bands - but that may be taking pareidolia a bit too far.

Is that wave cloud formation on the leeside (SE) of Stradbroke and Moreton Is? Surface winds are southerly but winds at 700hPa are NW? Maybe not?
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#1500887 - 20/06/2019 10:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1868
Loc: Australia
I don't know but the clouds are all over the place. A Big blob formed overnight off the coast, I thought I heard on the ABC that a weak trough was developing so unless the BOM have special charts to pick up these weak troughs, I certainly cant find any evidence.

We still seem to be stuck in a summer pattern with onshore winds all the time. The synoptic pattern does not seem to be different compared to 6 months ago, with the exception of that SW burst a few weeks back giving a dusting of snow

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#1500888 - 20/06/2019 10:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1925
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Hi all,Bit cool out here today 12deg at the moment and dropping lol . Forecast -2 tomorrow so probably be -3 . Got the fire wood ready for the wife she knows how to keep the wood fire going lol. Have a great day everyone.
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#1500889 - 20/06/2019 10:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: gleno71]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I don't know but the clouds are all over the place. A Big blob formed overnight off the coast, I thought I heard on the ABC that a weak trough was developing so unless the BOM have special charts to pick up these weak troughs, I certainly cant find any evidence.


I've been watching this trough on the models for a few days. It's only very weak but actually quite easily identifiable.

Originally Posted By: gleno71
We still seem to be stuck in a summer pattern with onshore winds all the time. The synoptic pattern does not seem to be different compared to 6 months ago, with the exception of that SW burst a few weeks back giving a dusting of snow


Hmm, I don't know if I agree with this one. Sure we've still have bouts of onshore winds but I don't think it's been as regular as you make out. I'm not sure if QLD's winters were ever consistently cold with westerlies dominating most of the season as opposed to just shorter bursts as we seem to get these days.

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#1500891 - 20/06/2019 11:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
I've given up trying to figure out what normal is any more. One thing I have a tiny bit of confidence in predicting is this. When the rainfall figures(deciles %'s deficits etc are worked out in July, it may show lots of very much below normal, to record rainfall deficits for the last 3 months for many areas from the Brisbane River, Scenic Rim right out to Moree and right down to the upper Hunter Valley. Of course, an unexpected rain event could change that but it is not looking promising. On that cheery note. have a great day everybody.

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#1500894 - 20/06/2019 12:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: ozone doug]
redbucket Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 324
Loc: Regency Downs, Lockyer Valley
Originally Posted By: ozone doug
Hi all,Bit cool out here today 12deg at the moment and dropping lol . Forecast -2 tomorrow so probably be -3 . Got the fire wood ready for the wife she knows how to keep the wood fire going lol. Have a great day everyone.


Hey Doug, I just spent the past couple of days out there, and went for a jog at sunrise yesterday. It was chilly to say the least. -0.8 according to BOM with an app temp of -4.5. The gloves and beannie were a must. Beautiful crisp day after that cold start, though!

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#1500900 - 20/06/2019 13:43 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 216
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Am I right in saying there's a surface low just to NE of Sandy Cape? I presume the cloud/showers offshore is related to this Forecast chart for Friday has a trough to east of Fraser - what's the cause of this?
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#1500907 - 20/06/2019 16:32 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Latest GFS has that massive High around 1040 hpa at times sitting around Gabo Is for days after Monday. Be showery conditions on the coast if that really happened.

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#1500908 - 20/06/2019 16:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Dipole Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2013
Posts: 361
Loc: Hervey Bay 48m,Tuross Head
8.2mm today in Hervey Bay, starting at 9:30am, steady light rain,surprising as we mostly get the odd shower, cool and quite overcast.

Doug,I am not allowed to set my wood fire either, my skill level is not high enough apparently.

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#1500911 - 20/06/2019 17:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 216
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
NSHP - 1040hPa thats a pretty beefy high and not I am guessing a 'fairly weak bubble highs of that kind of central pressure (1023) over land in inland eastern Australia during the winter months" that KK mentioned a couple of weeks ago.
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#1500915 - 20/06/2019 17:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Yes, it is large and strong systemn.

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#1500917 - 20/06/2019 17:51 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Shame we can't get just one of these cold pools to cut off from the upper level westerlies.

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#1500919 - 20/06/2019 19:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6086





Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I don't know but the clouds are all over the place. A Big blob formed overnight off the coast, I thought I heard on the ABC that a weak trough was developing so unless the BOM have special charts to pick up these weak troughs, I certainly cant find any evidence.


I've been watching this trough on the models for a few days. It's only very weak but actually quite easily identifiable.

Originally Posted By: gleno71
We still seem to be stuck in a summer pattern with onshore winds all the time. The synoptic pattern does not seem to be different compared to 6 months ago, with the exception of that SW burst a few weeks back giving a dusting of snow


Hmm, I don't know if I agree with this one. Sure we've still have bouts of onshore winds but I don't think it's been as regular as you make out. I'm not sure if QLD's winters were ever consistently cold with westerlies dominating most of the season as opposed to just shorter bursts as we seem to get these days.


That weak surface trough near Fraser Island is easily identifiable in the low level wind fields today gleno - see 1st image above for 4pm this afternoon. It's not as clearly defined in the MSLP fields though because it's weak.

As for the recent wind directions vs what's more typical, take Brisbane Airport's daily 3pm wind obs so far this month as an example (I prefer 3pm obs since the 9am obs can still be affected by the reinforcement of synoptic scale winds by the remnants of local scale landbreeze/katabatic wind effects from the ranges... and seabreeze effects are less common at this time of year even at the airport... as well as the airport having far less tall buildings near the anemometer).

5 out of the past 20 days so far this month have had winds with any kind of westerly component which equates to 25%.
Compare that to the old Brisbane Airport site whose June wind obs were recorded from 1950 to 1999 where approx 20% of June wind obs at 3pm were westerlies and 14% were southwesterlies.... giving a total of 34% of obs where winds had any kind of westerly component.
Of course, there are some uncertainties such as the categorisation of wind directions using an 8 point compass rose vs a 16 point one, the single fixed times of the obs, etc (you'd also have to factor in the relative wind strengths) but I think it does give a bit of an idea.

The fact that winter westerlies and southwesterlies were also likely colder back in the day would also make them more noticed by people. And from a subjective perspective, I do remember winter synoptic systems seemed to also be generally more progressive/mobile back then with weak bubble highs with variable winds (or winds from directions other than NW/W/SW) moving across our latitudes followed by a front and cold west/southwesterlies followed by another front, etc rather than stagnant patterns dominated by big slow moving highs further south. This may partly be reflected in the 2nd image above which is a trend map showing how the densities of winter highs have changed over the last almost 50 years for each given area per degree of latitude, squared as an average number.


Edited by Ken Kato (20/06/2019 19:12)

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#1500924 - 20/06/2019 20:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1868
Loc: Australia
Thanks Ken, and to Mega as well

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#1500932 - 21/06/2019 07:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH ( 27.4S 153.2E ) - WEATHER

DATE...21 JUN 2019 TIME..0735

CURRENT TEMPERATURE...15.1C
CURRENT HUMIDITY........78%
CURRENT DEW POINT.......11C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED..WSW 9Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE...1019.4Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY......30KM
CURRENT CLOUD...........7/8 Sc.
CURRENT WEATHER......No significant weather.
RAIN SINCE 0900 THURSDAY....0.0mm.

SUMMARY LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP........19.7C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP.....13.6C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN....12.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT.....11C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1020.5Hpa
MAX WIND GUST LAST 24 HOURS..W 19Kph at 2347
LAST 24 HOURS WEATHER... Overcast with offshore showers, lessening overnight.

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#1500934 - 21/06/2019 07:52 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3816
Loc: Buderim
On the subject of whether westerly winds are becoming less common I did think using Brisbane was a little problematic due to sea breeze interactions, which could also possibly change over time due to urbanisation. I did spend some time looking at Toowoomba a while back, but didn't really find anything interesting.

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#1500937 - 21/06/2019 08:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Mike Hauber]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6086
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
On the subject of whether westerly winds are becoming less common I did think using Brisbane was a little problematic due to sea breeze interactions, which could also possibly change over time due to urbanisation. I did spend some time looking at Toowoomba a while back, but didn't really find anything interesting.

Amberley would probably be better for that reason (and also considering itís one of the ACORN sites) but because itís been a continuously running site for many decades now, youíd have to isolate the wind data from earlier decades before comparing it with recent data.
While Brisbane Airport May not be as desirable as say Amberley, I think itís still potentially better than the CBD site which may suffer more interference to wind directions from nearby extensive buildings despite the anemometer mounted at a height of 10m. Sea breezes are also less common in winter compared to the warmer months even at the airport site and can also give an indication of any significant longer term changes in westerlies (e.g. weakening westerlies will allow any afternoon seabreeze effects to penetrate over the airport more frequently and be reflected in the longer term data.

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#1500939 - 21/06/2019 08:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 216
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Mike - That's an interesting concept you raise there regarding increasing urbanisation and local weather effects. Do you know of any research being done on this. I would think that this would have a big impact on air pollution/health etc.

WRT westerly winds - I get the impression that there has been a reduction in those bone-dry, gusty winter SWs with typically cloud-free skies and a red afternoon sunsets from airborne dust. However that may be an artefact of my memory as these events stood out and may have been more frequent with, maybe, ENSO events.
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#1500942 - 21/06/2019 09:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Multiversity]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3816
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Multiversity
Mike - That's an interesting concept you raise there regarding increasing urbanisation and local weather effects. Do you know of any research being done on this. I would think that this would have a big impact on air pollution/health etc.



Plenty of research has been done on the heat island effect going back for decades, quick google finds one from 1968. Some researchers have
more recently been looking into how these effects can be reduced to keep our cities cooler. I also remember something about pollution build up through the week from cars can increase rain later in the week (not sure how well supported), that increased roughness of dense urban areas (skyscrapers) increases rainfall through orthographic lifting, and a study on how the seabreeze front location impacts on storm generation in SEQ. I'd be reasonably confident that Brisbane's urbanisation would impact the seabreeze front.

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#1500947 - 21/06/2019 10:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Multiversity Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2017
Posts: 216
Loc: Brisbane Inner West
Brisbane with a severely impacted/diminished seabreeze would be not worth contemplating, but then again it may enhance it? Would be interesting what the case may be and whether any long-term forecasting has been done for Brisbane.

I haven't read this in detail other than was reported in newspapers but the annual BP global energy report apparently made this assertion: 'an increase in unusually hot and cold days is boosting US energy demand' - increased use of air-con and heaters etc.

So if an impact is made on a seabreeze and its ability to provide natural relief I guess the problem just keeps compounding.
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