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#1484596 - 08/01/2019 09:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
And yeah I agree Crikey, enjoying the overcast almost tropical sky on offer. Pleasant change

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#1484628 - 08/01/2019 13:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1868
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
The harsh reality Pete is that we are best to turn our thoughts to something else to cheer us up.I don't know what's causing that High to bury itself in that spot for so long ( maybe it's cold SSTs in the Tasman ) but I will try and be positive and foresee that with these relentless trade winds out there East of us,warmer water from the eastern Equatorial Pacific might get dragged our way changing the state of Play for us


If I'm not mistaken, the high is in the right place for this time of year ? Seems a normal summer pattern to me except maybe the sst are a bit cooler than normal further south

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#1484633 - 08/01/2019 13:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Yeah no doubting it's in the right spot Gleno just what's causing it to be shackled to the spot.

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#1484642 - 08/01/2019 14:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Possibly the axis of the ridge is in the perfect position to keep the onshore flow weak and the inland troughs and fronts away. Also maybe a stable upper pattern.

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#1484644 - 08/01/2019 14:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090





1st image above - MSLP anomalies averaged over last month where the "warmer" colours represent higher than normal pressures for this time of year while the cooler colours represent lower than normal pressures.

2nd image above - Height anomalies of the 500hpa pressure level with the same colour scheme.

You can see an area of higher than normal 500hpa heights over, and off SE Australia... coupled with higher than normal surface pressures in the same region.

BTW the 4-week EC ensemble outlook run twice a week still isn't currently showing high confidence of major prolonged changes to the overall rainfall anomalies in our region... if anything, a large proportion of its members currently suggest drier than normal conditions to spread across much of northeastern and central Australia from about mid-January but they're somewhat more undecided about our region (some are still going for continued dry anomalies here too but with more modest probabilities).

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#1484668 - 08/01/2019 16:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1405
Loc: Toowoomba
Thanks for those images, Ken. Doesn't look too promising for a change. Large, but sparse drops falling again.

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#1484677 - 08/01/2019 16:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1268
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Zero recordable rain here today even though the radar looks pretty good.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2019 - 182mm Jan - .5 Feb - 1.5, Mar - 143, Apr - 0, May - 8, June - 29

2018 - 508.2
2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1484689 - 08/01/2019 17:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
Looking at the Brisbane radar pix last few days, it looks like our famous Qridge, and its upper equivalent ( think correct spelling ) has been holding back ex Penny outflow precipitation away from the coast and in a narrow band well to the west of Brisbrown.

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#1484701 - 08/01/2019 18:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Belgarad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/02/2015
Posts: 75
I just thought I'd pop in to express my sadness of this years storm season for us in coastal SEQLD.

hehe oh well.

I'm jealous of the central coast.


Edited by Belgarad (08/01/2019 18:31)

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#1484706 - 08/01/2019 18:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Yep it's been a shocker!!!!! With a Capitol S. Enough to bring tears to a glass eye😢

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#1484758 - 08/01/2019 23:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10670
Loc: SWR
0.4mm in the 24hrs to 9am from a light morning shower. This brings an end to the dry spell here, which lasted for 16 days. For summer, that's a fairly significant period of time for no rain to fall here.

Occasions during or partly during Summer here since 1939 where there has been no rain fall for 16 days or more:

Dec 22nd 2018 to Jan 6th 2019 - 16 days
Dec 27th 2012 to Jan 12th 2013 - 17 days
Dec 24th 1993 to Jan 14th 1994 - 22 days
Jan 26th 1983 to Feb 11th 1983 - 17 days
Nov 19th 1957 to Dec 8th 1957 - 20 days
Jan 17th 1952 to Feb 11th 1952 - 26 days
Nov 28th 1951 to Dec 18th 1951 - 21 days
Feb 20th 1943 to Mar 17th 1943 - 26 days
Feb 7th 1940 to Feb 27th 1940 - 21 days

It happened twice during the summer of 1951/52!

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#1484759 - 08/01/2019 23:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: gleno71
If I'm not mistaken, the high is in the right place for this time of year ? Seems a normal summer pattern to me except maybe the sst are a bit cooler than normal further south


Unlike a typical 'elongated' ridge that you'd normally see through the Coral Sea during summer, this high sat further north between the NSW coast and NZ for two weeks up until a day or so ago. I like to call this the Tasman Sea ridge (as opposed to the Coral Sea ridge) because we are getting drier and more stable air from the SE and not warmer, more humid air from the ENE or NE. The surface pattern across the Tasman Sea does look to become more active again but the same problem remains and that is that this ridging continues to bulge northwards through the northern Tasman Sea and the pattern goes on and on and on. The other issue is there have been NO significant upper troughs to speak of across mainland AUS (not unusual for January but none?). There was a weak one which moved through last week which slightly increased showers (and helped shear Penny) but that's it. It's as if the uppers blew their load in November leaving us with a very stable upper-level pattern (more-so than usual) during summer.

Those are my thoughts anyway. Here is an image from a GFS run last week showing where our high sat for so long:


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#1484760 - 08/01/2019 23:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
And this is the SST response from the high sitting over that region for so long:


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#1484761 - 08/01/2019 23:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1883
Loc: Kingaroy
I wonder if those warm SSTs will help fuel ECLs this winter?

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#1484764 - 09/01/2019 02:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Mega]
one drop Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/04/2014
Posts: 117
Loc: maryborough
Originally Posted By: Mega
And this is the SST response from the high sitting over that region for so long:



those charts you posted and some of the other discussions on here re: why is the quidge so persistent now, got me thinking about something i read the other day....


Quote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Australian_Current

The EAC experiences seasonally variations. It tends to be strongest in the summer, with an amplitude flow around 36.3 Sv. It is its weakest during the winter months flowing at a rate around 27.4 Sv.[6] Over the past 5060 years the EAC has shifted. The south Tasman Sea has become warmer and saltier from 1944-2002. This has resulted in the current strengthening and extending southward. This shift in the EAC flow past Tasmania is controlled the Southern Hemisphere subtropical ocean circulation. This trend is thought to be caused by changes in wind patterns due to ozone depletion over Australia. There is a strong consensus with climate models that this trend will continue to intensify and accelerate over the next 100 years. The current is predicted to increase greater than 20%, thanks to the increase in South Pacific winds.


i'm just a novice, so i wouldn't have a clue. but it sounded interesting and i'm sure would impact the weather from here south.

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#1484779 - 09/01/2019 08:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1669
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I know its frustrating, but i have seen this many times with a consistent dry south east wind coming from consistent Tasman highs.
My thoughts are that we can expect this to continue til March.
In a nutshell, very very frustrating weather and Boooooooring
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1484785 - 09/01/2019 08:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
What would be frustrating after all this is a long season of bombing Tasman Sea Lows.

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#1484787 - 09/01/2019 09:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..9 JAN 2019 TIME..0755

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.6C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........72%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...NE 18Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1013.3HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........20KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........6/8 cloud, haze.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.2mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.7C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....23.9C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...21.3C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....20C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1013.1Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 30kph at 1032
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Haze, distant showers.

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#1484792 - 09/01/2019 09:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
And that cool water over the northern Coral Sea is not helping any possible TC development, along with a weakening of the monsoonal outflow from Asia.

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#1484796 - 09/01/2019 09:51 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 388
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Light drizzly showers here last night and again this morning, just enough to be a pain but at least it's cooler.
_________________________
Just here for the weather

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