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#1484946 - 10/01/2019 14:43 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
They're hitting the denser more stable marine layer and dying. Seems the BM's & west is the place to be atm.

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#1484959 - 10/01/2019 16:22 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Kino]
Funkyseefunkydo Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 904
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Doesn’t look to be any shear at all.

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#1484964 - 10/01/2019 16:58 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8802
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Things really firing over the center now, Dunedoo spent some time under a red core, now Mudgee's turn. Shear picking up, things moving along.

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#1484966 - 10/01/2019 17:10 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Kino]
DVC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/11/2011
Posts: 415
Loc: Goulburn NSW
nice black core travelling nnw/sse to the west of here approaching gunning.
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#1484967 - 10/01/2019 17:35 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7364
Looked like DaveM would have got a good storm.
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#1484968 - 10/01/2019 17:45 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 758
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
This might be a stupid question but in weather like this if a powerful supercell forms would it have enough strength to reach the coast despite the strong south easterlies.

edit: 85km/hr gust at bathurst


Edited by Sidney (10/01/2019 17:46)

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#1484969 - 10/01/2019 17:49 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8802
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Shear isn't strong enough to maintain a supercell all the way to the coast, that's the thing. Tomorrow may be different however with some decent turning in the lowers as well.

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#1484971 - 10/01/2019 17:54 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Kino]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2982
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Shear not looking like anything special on GFS for tomorrow.
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#1484972 - 10/01/2019 18:00 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8802
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
True it's looking stronger over the Illawarra, so perhaps one or two potential left-mover supercells over the W/SW Syd suburbs.

The jet-stream running just to our north will make things interesting.

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#1484974 - 10/01/2019 18:01 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 758
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Shear aint the best for tomorrow. But at least the winds will be coming from the NE. And the sun should be out as well so we will get more daytime heating. Looks prime for the Illawarra.

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#1484975 - 10/01/2019 18:04 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 758
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
That storm in Bathurst looks insane. 41.6mm so far with temps down to 15.4c from a top of 31.8c earlier today.

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#1484977 - 10/01/2019 18:06 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 737
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Looks like a nice line forming on the Tablelands from Bathurst Northwards, hopefully it maintains, and provides a good drink.

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#1484978 - 10/01/2019 18:11 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5024
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Heres how the storms appear on Weatherzone layers:



Bathurst had 41.6 mm in an hour.

You can aes also see on the map the edge of the marine crap near Newcastle and the boundary between warm and cold waters out to sea.

Even if the storms can't reach here, the anvils have. It's been very gloomy, you can hardly believe it's two hours to sunset.

EDIT: if you take away the lightning, there are a few red patches - i.e. cloud tops at about -75 degrees C. Taking 6 degrees per 1,000 m and assuming 20 at sea level, that would correspond to cloud tops at about 16,000 metres. The radar shows a few bright magneta (i.e. black) cores, one South of Bathurst, one North of Oberon, one near Kandos.


Edited by Steve777 (10/01/2019 18:18)

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#1484979 - 10/01/2019 18:13 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8802
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Up to 47mm at Bathurst AP, they got hammered out there. Good top-up for them, not sure how dry it is out that way though.

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#1484980 - 10/01/2019 18:23 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7364
The forecast tomorrow looks pretty conservative in terms of thunderstorms with the forecast description saying "the chance of a thunderstorm" for the Illawarra.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1484982 - 10/01/2019 18:31 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Kino]
Quagmelson Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 1009
Loc: Glenorie NSW
Constant deep thunder here from kandos line. Its not usual to hear thunder from that far away here. Completely overcast and almost mizzly. Maybe theres some anvil creepers going on.

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#1484986 - 10/01/2019 18:50 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Kino]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2188
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
Amazing that so much activity on the imagery should produce not one drop of rain.
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#1484989 - 10/01/2019 19:11 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Long Road Home]
DMK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/07/2003
Posts: 99
Loc: Bathurst
Very dry up here, we're on water restrictions.

The storm was pretty intense, although it really skimmed to the north of the town, then got followed up by a cell to the south. Think I may have got just a few mm in total. BOM is showing 5mm for Stanley St in town, 47mm for the airport AWS!

Looks like the usual airport webcam didn't last after 5:50pm. The Pipers Airfield cams are still operating and showing the remnants of the storm. Would have been good to view around 5pm! It looked amazing live, heaps of chunky lightning strikes and turquoise clouds.

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#1484990 - 10/01/2019 19:11 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 758
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Anvil rain starting to creep into the outer western suburbs. Not expecting anything more than anvil rain tbh.

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#1484994 - 10/01/2019 19:43 Re: NSW Severe Storm Outbreak - Tues 8/1 - Fri 11/1/2019 [Re: Sidney]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6390
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Sidney
Anvil rain starting to creep into the outer western suburbs. Not expecting anything more than anvil rain tbh.

It's better than nothing Sidney, particularly when Bom's forecast pretty much only had light drizzle.
We're getting some big drops here now and I have heard some thunder. Wonder how long before they update?

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