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#1483660 - 02/01/2019 09:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090



Tomorrow (Thursday) might still see some thunder starting to develop from somewhat early on (mainly favouring northern and possibly inland parts of SE QLD) with some of the beefier showers moving in from the NE.

But shear and steering winds are very weak so most of the thunder should take the form of slow erratically-moving activity that might give a reasonable drop to a lucky few rather than a tradition organised severe thunderstorm setup. Slightly cooler midlevels inland and a bit of extra moisture should help a bit with the modest instability.

Multiweek EC ensemble has been suggesting slightly elevated risk of wetter than normal conditions developing over parts of eastern Australia within the next few weeks but the higher probabilities currently favour areas like NSW.

Above is the percentage of models including the members of the EC ensemble dropping more than 1 and 5mm of rainfall between 10pm tonight and 10pm Thursday night via WATL - it clearly shows the northern parts have the better chances of seeing something.

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#1483664 - 02/01/2019 10:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Managed several showers this morning, but I don't think any would be heavy enough to register with the heaviest just enough to make the concrete a patchy damp.

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#1483735 - 02/01/2019 17:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Just checked in to see how Access r was fairing with its precipitation signal and north/south line out west of divide. Bit disappointed really. Only one storm evident near Glen Innes.
5pm .. wondering if its getting too late for anything else to develop. . Maybe l will check later.
However capturing that Nw/Se line nicely and oh my is she firing. Dangerous storms near Sydney and blue mountains l believe.

Grafton 512km radar
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR281.loop.shtml


Edited by crikey (02/01/2019 17:18)
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#1483745 - 02/01/2019 18:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC +240 hrs - no sign of ridge breaking.

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#1483751 - 02/01/2019 18:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 19046
Loc: The Beach.
Yes looking like a dry January unless something dramatic happens.
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#1483756 - 02/01/2019 19:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
I'm wondering if there are any statistics on long term Tasman dwelling High Pressure systems ie is there any record for the longest serving High to park it's backside in the Tasman sea.This current high might be shaping up as a worthwhile contestant.

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#1483758 - 02/01/2019 19:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I've often wondered the same thing TS and I've also often wondered if they were always this regular and long-lasting.

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#1483759 - 02/01/2019 19:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090





Originally Posted By: Mega
I've often wondered the same thing TS and I've also often wondered if they were always this regular and long-lasting.

I'm not personally aware of any stats about record-breaking highs but there is data on the long term changes in the density and central pressures of highs and lows such as the examples above via the Bureau.

The 1st map shows the change in the frequency of highs in summer since 1970 while the 2nd map shows the change averaged across all seasons. The frequency values are calculated from the number of highs per degree of latitude squared per time block. The caveat is that it won't indicate how suddenly or slowly the change has happened unless you look at the time series graphs (but they do generally show the change has been gradual and fairly sustained).

Still looking like the chance of any thunder with the shower activity on Thursday will probably be mainly confined to northern parts of SE QLD with erratic slow-moving activity that has a general tendency to track further inland and little severity.

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#1483761 - 02/01/2019 19:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090




Originally Posted By: Ken Kato





Originally Posted By: Mega
I've often wondered the same thing TS and I've also often wondered if they were always this regular and long-lasting.

I'm not personally aware of any stats about record-breaking highs but there is data on the long term changes in the density and central pressures of highs and lows such as the examples above via the Bureau.

The 1st map shows the change in the frequency of highs in summer since 1970 while the 2nd map shows the change averaged across all seasons. The frequency values are calculated from the number of highs per degree of latitude squared per time block. The caveat is that it won't indicate how suddenly or slowly the change has happened unless you look at the time series graphs (but they do generally show the change has been gradual and fairly sustained).

Still looking like the chance of any thunder with the shower activity on Thursday will probably be mainly confined to northern parts of SE QLD with erratic slow-moving activity that has a general tendency to track further inland and little severity.


Have added a couple of graphs above re my previous post. The link to the long term changes is here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=trend-maps

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#1483775 - 02/01/2019 20:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Looking at ACCESS southern hemisphere (7 day}
You can see that ALL the high pressure cells are stationary and and appear to be bobbing up and down on top of the contracted westerly belt. O think these are referred to as standing wave pattern.
In fact l will say there are no waves the sub polar belt appears to be in a state of no waves. Very flat. Zero amplitude
What is the name of the anomaly for the westerly belt ? Forgotten
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-thick&tz=UTC&area=G&model=G
One link to research here.
https://research.monash.edu/en/publicati...ad-up-to-summer


Edited by crikey (02/01/2019 20:44)
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#1483776 - 02/01/2019 21:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
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#1483777 - 02/01/2019 21:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I sort of disagree re all of the high pressure cells in the SH being stationary especially compared with ours. Looping GFS or EC MSLP charts from the last week or even from this week until next, you'll see all of the other highs around the SH moving from west to east as they should be while ours has remained weak and just sat there. There does appear to be a block off South America but I'm not sure if it's related. From a model run last Thursday:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...2018122700&fh=0

Could have something to do with the Hadley Cell as mentioned in another thread as well.

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#1483778 - 02/01/2019 21:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
I am not sure MEGA. I have not been following for awhile.
That is just what l saw on ACCESS 7 day forecast for the SH.
BOM have a few special climate reports from similar circumstances. Blocking Highs in the Tasman. cause heatwaves in VIC and Tasmania no 63 or 64?
I believe the meteorologists use the term teleconnections
In this case, how does whats going on in higher latitudes affect the high pressure belt.
OR? what else
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#1483779 - 02/01/2019 21:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10670
Loc: SWR
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
1532.4mm fell here during 2018, which is 41.6mm above our yearly average.
March was the wettest month (475.0mm), and May was the driest (12.4mm).

-----

Thunderdays & Thunderstorm hits yearly totals over the past six calendar years here at South West Rocks:

2018 - 58 thunderdays & 45 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: December)
2017 - 56 thunderdays & 44 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: December)
2016 - 45 thunderdays & 31 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: November)
2015 - 64 thunderdays & 47 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: January)
2014 - 50 thunderdays & 40 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: December)
2013 - 43 thunderdays & 30 thunderstorm hits - (Stormiest month: November)


Counted 14 thunderday around here since the start of the storm season pretty pathetic really.They might have toreadjust their assessment of titles and name the mid North coast the storm capital 2nd to Darwin
Yikes, I didn't realise it had been that poor at Tweed Heads.

There's been 30 thunderdays (and 28 thunderstorm hits) here at South West Rocks since the start of this storm season. It's been a good season so far.
Has been quiet since the ridge began its authoritarian regime at Christmas, but it's fairly normal to get a "lull" in storm activity at some point during the summer (with this usually happening in either January or February). Almost like a mid-season break between the 'primary' and 'secondary' parts of the storm season.

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#1483789 - 03/01/2019 06:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1373
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Ohh lovely rain
4mm in last hour
What a pleasant suprise
BOM have up chances of rain
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1483790 - 03/01/2019 06:52 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato



Tomorrow (Thursday) might still see some thunder starting to develop from somewhat early on (mainly favouring northern and possibly inland parts of SE QLD) with some of the beefier showers moving in from the NE.

But shear and steering winds are very weak so most of the thunder should take the form of slow erratically-moving activity that might give a reasonable drop to a lucky few rather than a tradition organised severe thunderstorm setup. Slightly cooler midlevels inland and a bit of extra moisture should help a bit with the modest instability.

Multiweek EC ensemble has been suggesting slightly elevated risk of wetter than normal conditions developing over parts of eastern Australia within the next few weeks but the higher probabilities currently favour areas like NSW.

Above is the percentage of models including the members of the EC ensemble dropping more than 1 and 5mm of rainfall between 10pm tonight and 10pm Thursday night via WATL - it clearly shows the northern parts have the better chances of seeing something.


Not really a surprise IMO poke Weve had some decent but brief downpours here so far this morning, one of which woke me up.

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#1483791 - 03/01/2019 07:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
I was looking at upper charts yesterday I think to see what was happening with TC Penny and was surprised to see an upper level low overhead. Very weak though.

Nice to have an upgrade to 5-20mm expected today for SS coast.

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#1483798 - 03/01/2019 08:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1268
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Will all these cyclones sitting up north draw the moisture away as in past cyclones or are they not a big enough system to do that?
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2019 - 182mm Jan - .5 Feb - 1.5, Mar - 143, Apr - 0, May - 8, June - 29

2018 - 508.2
2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1483799 - 03/01/2019 08:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..3 JAN 2019 TIME..0705

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......21.7C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........88%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 20C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...WSW 4Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1014.2HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........7/8 cloud, nearby showers.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.8mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......30.7C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....21.0C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...20.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1012.8Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NE 34kph at 1309
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Overnight and early morning showers.

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#1483800 - 03/01/2019 08:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Interesting thanks for your research on High Pressure systems Ken and Mega, that graph re the strength of highs showing a gradual but strengthening of them is a concern.

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