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#1483637 - 02/01/2019 00:16 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 86
Loc: Tasmania, Hobart
Yes hopefully no wind BrightonBreeze!
Especially as Hobart has a revised forecast of 35 degrees now for Friday.

Autumn/Winter feels like so long ago.

Here's hoping for some months in 2019 where we have below average or even equal to the long term average for once!

These constant record breaking warm months/years are worrisome.

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#1483638 - 02/01/2019 01:00 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 749
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Maybe 2019 will finally be the turning point when people start to come to realization that something is very broken with our environment and weather patterns.
Very sad to see more records fall not only down here in Tas but other states as well.
Once again looking data from the BOM now seven of the warmest annual combined average monthly temps records ( Hobart ) have been broken since 2007.
It's been an insane 11 year period and it's not reversing it's increasing , Temps just keep going up. The evidence is there for all to see , about time we were able to openly discuss these changes.
BTW some sites have Hobart at 36 degrees depending when the front comes though . 14 degrees over average not funny.


Edited by MOUNTAIN h2o (02/01/2019 01:02)

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#1483640 - 02/01/2019 01:28 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 86
Loc: Tasmania, Hobart
The odd 30-35 degree day here and there isn't my major concern.
(Don't enjoy them though)
I mean these have always happened even when you look back at the 1880's and 1890's.

The thing I've noticed is how winter seems to be getting milder and minimum temps in summer are getting consistently higher.

I mean December 2017 is the hottest on record 13.4 degrees mean (Hobart) for min temps and December 2018 was right on it's heels in second place with 13.3 degrees mean.


Edited by Winter_lover (02/01/2019 01:29)

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#1483783 - 02/01/2019 22:42 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2186
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Happy New Years to all.
Looks a bit hot Friday with 39 degrees for Brighton.
Fire dangers are also forecast up in the high Severe category.
Not good after a week of being called out to Bruny Island fire.

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#1483801 - 03/01/2019 08:50 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 440
Loc: Hobart
I am thinking a weak seabreeze before the trough line is going to give areas just inland of Hobart a 3 degree (dis)advantage over the city tomorrow?

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#1483970 - 04/01/2019 11:23 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 203
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Hi all,

Max temp yesterday of 31.3 C out here at Brighton.

Currently a hot 34.5 C and rising very quickly now,

Also concerning amounts of smoke from the fire up at Cluny Dam, with a pyrocumulus!! frown

Stay safe all this afternaoon and keep an eye on the TFS website, hopefully we get through today all good!

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#1483973 - 04/01/2019 11:41 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 203
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
My Mistake, it looks like a fire NW of Maydena, currently under a Watch and Act. Smoke warning for the Hobart area now.

http://www.fire.tas.gov.au/Show?pageId=articleItem&viewIncidentUpdateID=60753

Very HOT out here at Brighton, a lot like many other places atm,
Currently 36.2 C, 21.0 % Humidity, WNW averaging 34 km/h, gusting 56 km/h.

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#1483995 - 04/01/2019 13:29 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 440
Loc: Hobart
High level smoke in Hobart so it's not too bad really, filtered sunshine. Cool change has gone through the south-east, an 11 degree drop in the city 34.0 max to 23 presently...

Wind change may be very close to reaching Campania, 39.4 max so far, wonder if it can push 40 before it's too late. Another outside chance of a 40 would be Ouse.

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#1484005 - 04/01/2019 14:23 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 203
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Yes quite a lot cooler down in the City and further South Yep.

Campania has maxed out at 39.7 C, with the change blowing in about 1.50pm.

Brighton topped out at 39.4 C, it held over 39C for around an hour, with a WNW averaging 45 km/h and gusting 71 km/h for the majority of the time. The wind dropped out suddenly about 2.05 and started to swing around to the South. The temps been on the decline since and now its a more comfortable 31.3 C! grin

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#1484021 - 04/01/2019 16:26 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 151
Loc: Andergrove QLD
I see you have a forest fire. Shows up well as a blue plume on this Himawaricast image from Jcsat2B. Received by me at 0300UT.


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#1484753 - 08/01/2019 22:18 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 749
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Looks like another week or so of constant Townsville like temps for Hobart.Early days however Jan 2019 already well on the way to yet another extreme heat beating data record perhaps ?
Sick of seeing that blasting sun and UV everyday already , feel like I'm living in a incubator. God help us , Summer anywhere in Australia is becoming unbearable to insane.
mad

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#1484769 - 09/01/2019 06:50 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 151
Loc: Andergrove QLD
The difference is, you guys get relief at night time. Up here in the tropics it never drops below the high 20's in summer, even at night. There's no relief, ever.

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#1484774 - 09/01/2019 07:44 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: Learjet]
boxingkoala Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/06/2011
Posts: 60
lol. having lived in the tropics and Brisbane, i hardly relate that heat to our recent weather. Night time and lower humidity make the weather much more bearable. Certainly above average for Tassie averages agreed.
_________________________
Cradoc 110m asl

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#1484790 - 09/01/2019 09:10 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2031
Loc: Westbury
Yes, warm by Tasmanian standards, but not by Qld standards. Hobart averaged a max temp of 22.3 in December and the first 7 days of Jan the average is way above at 26.4 which if sustained would be the highest average max for any month on record by a long way, highest so far is ~25.

The current forecast suggests Hobart after a couple of cooler days, will have at least 6 days in the mid to high 20's. Parts of the north will have 5 consec days at close to or above 30 commencing Sat. So I would expect the BOM to have some sort of heatwave alert out.

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#1484894 - 09/01/2019 21:33 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 440
Loc: Hobart
What a warm start to the year. I hadn't taken a look at the averages up until now. Hobart will be at 25.4 on the 16th almost half a degree clear of the January 2003 record. January 2003 was 24.3 at the half way mark but warmer still in the second half. What is the January record for the first half of the month( 1st-16th ) in Hobart? I'm not an expert at the long-term forecast charts but it seems the second half of the month will turn cooler. There is also a hint of a reasonable trough down the eastern side of country which normally blocks heat situations down here.

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#1485242 - 12/01/2019 19:09 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 749
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Hobart reached 30 plus on Friday after 5pm , looks like a minefield of heat Monday through to Friday. The average over Monday to Friday will be around 27.5c , Hobart already averaged 25.7c so far this month. Major heat set to return Monday week. mad

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#1485389 - 14/01/2019 14:46 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: yep]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2031
Loc: Westbury
Originally Posted By: yep
What a warm start to the year. I hadn't taken a look at the averages up until now. Hobart will be at 25.4 on the 16th almost half a degree clear of the January 2003 record. January 2003 was 24.3 at the half way mark but warmer still in the second half. What is the January record for the first half of the month( 1st-16th ) in Hobart? I'm not an expert at the long-term forecast charts but it seems the second half of the month will turn cooler. There is also a hint of a reasonable trough down the eastern side of country which normally blocks heat situations down here.



Using averages the first 7 days of 2018 were the 3rd warmest first 7 days (averaged 26.4). 2013 averaged 28.7 and 1940 averaged 26.9. 2013 had the record temp of 41.8 in it. Table below has the year, average and standard dev of the 7 days. 1996 was the coldest.

2013 28.7 6.9
1940 26.9 5.2
2008 25.5 6.1
2015 25.5 4.9
2001 25.2 4.9
1976 25.2 7.3
2007 25.2 3.1
2003 25.1 5.3

Expanding that to the first half of the month 1st-16th inclusive, 1960 was the warmest, it averaged 26.1. 2008 was 2nd averaging 25.7 and 2013 dropped back to 3rd place with 25.2. 2003 was 'only' the 8th warmed first half of Jan.

The first half of 1960 below, 4 days over 30, 3 over 35 and 2 days of 28. The first 4 days were quite mild to cool.

23.9
20.4
20.1
17.8
22.1
23.9
35.4
35.6
24.9
30.6
23.2
20.2
24
28.2
28.6
38.9

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#1485417 - 14/01/2019 19:47 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 440
Loc: Hobart
Good work Snowies. So it seems highly likely the first half of this January will end up being the third warmest on record, which follows on from the third warmest start to January for the first 7 days... I wonder how the rest of the month will go, too many probabilities open up to be too sure about anything really...

Odd to see a forecast temperature of 29 for Hobart tomorrow with the words "very hot" in the forecast. That's stretching the heat language just a little bit! Even Glenorchy's 34 is a couple of degrees too cool for that tag. Maybe humidity will elevate the apparent temperature, but still..!


Edited by yep (14/01/2019 19:50)

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#1485463 - 15/01/2019 09:16 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2031
Loc: Westbury
There is a reasonably strong correlation (R2 of 0.65) between the first half of Jan and the final average for the month. Months that start warmer than normal generally finish with a higher than normal average. But the correlation isn't sufficient to make any predictions.

Of all the months to average more than 24 at the halfway mark (9), only the 2003 value went up from the mid month average, the others declined by an average of 1.2 degrees.

So given our current position it's quite likely that Jan will have an average max >24. It's whether it can maintain the rage and challenge the record...

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#1485540 - 15/01/2019 19:45 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 86
Loc: Tasmania, Hobart
Getting headaches from the constant sunshine in balmy Hobart!

My family think i'm unusual for not being happy about the sunny days.

Could do with some rain as everything is yellow and brown.

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