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#1485195 - 12/01/2019 09:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3816
Loc: Buderim
How much of the long term trend is Somerset finished in the 50s, and Wivenhoe in the 70s? Although I don't think Somerset would have done much against the major floods prior to 1900.


Edited by Mike Hauber (12/01/2019 09:50)

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#1485204 - 12/01/2019 11:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
I might add also that that BoM river height graph was published in 2009 before the 2011 flood.

Mike - the 1893 flood was mostly in the Stanley which is where the Somerset Dam is. 100 inches in 4 days upstream. The 1974 flood saw a lot of heavy rain in the Lockyer Valley, Warrill Creek and Bremer River catchments which would have bypassed Wivenhoe.

The other half of the graph I put up showed the Bremer River floods at Ipswich which are more consistent over time than major floods in the Brisbane/Stanley system, but the impact of the Bremer ALONE on the Port Office gauge in Brisbane is not that great.


Edited by retired weather man (12/01/2019 11:34)
Edit Reason: addition

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#1485226 - 12/01/2019 16:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: retired weather man]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7897
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Mega,

In regard to your question about dry periods. I grew up in Brisbane in the 50's and 60's. 1957-1962 and 1964-5 were very dry too in SEQ. Prayers were said in State Parliament in 1962 and 1964 to help break the drought.

There were a couple of short wet periods during those years, just like we see today, but overall very dry.


Thanks RWM, your insight on all things weather is always very much appreciated.

Originally Posted By: crikey
The tweed river flooded about 12 months ago and equalled the second highest flood event from 1974. The big floods here seem to be ex tropical cyclone remnants coupled with King tides.

The average mslp maps all show ridging in summer as a standard synoptic pattern.
select Dec, Jan ,Feb
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/climate_averages/mean-sealevel-pressure/index.jsp?period=jun

Maybe the unusual thing is the lack of breaks from low pressure fronts with a very zonal mid latitude.
-----
Great time lapse MEGA. Great find!! Love to see more of those. A picture says a thousand words
-------
Not everyone is getting dry weather from this stalled synoptic pattern.
The trough and stall line from the NW to the SE has just been incredible. Storms day after day


Thanks crikey. Yeah, it's true that southern/central NSW have had plenty of storms recently but it's not as if it's been a traditional widespread drought-breaking event. Areas who managed to find themselves under a storm I'm sure were very happy with the rain but they'll be needing a lot more. Outlook charts for the next week at least look very dry through those areas too so it's hard to see the monthly rainfall anomaly chart look any better than it does now.



Thankfully, it's not too bad around here locally as we had a reasonably wet December but I know that away from this area it's very dry. Hopefully this dry pattern breaks with a vengeance like it so often does!

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#1485237 - 12/01/2019 18:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Yes MEGA the forecast for rain looks dismal this week for us and many many others
Here is WATL

----

When is then next La Nina due. what year was the last one we had.
Surely we are due for another , possibly commencing this autumn?
or is it going to be another neutral?

I do recall that before the La Nina commences... the season before has always been very dry and hot.
-----
Interesting to note the lowest rainfall anomaly is up the northern quadrant of OZ. The monsson hasn't been around much so far this season


Edited by crikey (12/01/2019 18:33)
_________________________
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#1485238 - 12/01/2019 18:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Ken Kato]
buster Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/09/2006
Posts: 439
Loc: Kalbar (near Boonah) SEQ
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: LDRcycles
I found these forums that day, as anyone looking at the radar could see what was about to happen (though I couldn't have guessed just how awful it turned out to be) yet there were no warnings being issued.

If I recall correctly, I think there was a warning in place at the time that mentioned the risk of flash flooding, but it didn't reflect the exceptional and historic nature of the flooding that was to evolve.


Hey Ken,

You raise an interesting point and one that I've wondered about myself in recent years. It brings me to a question but I'll get to that in a minute. Bear with me as I preamble (my wife says I should preamble far less). You may or may not know that I was part of the discussion on the forum as the day unfolded on 10.01.2011. My 15 minutes of fame after the flood was a time I could have done without. I, along with a few other folk in the weather community wrote a fair bit in the event thread that day and in the days that followed as well as in "the Washup" forum that followed (also worth tracking down for those interested). To be honest, much of what I wrote after the event was poorly informed and came from a situation of my own grief at not being able to change what happened and also because later on, my house at Rocklea where my kids lived was dunked. It was just bloody traumatic. I came to know the folk of Grantham pretty well after the event. My trauma was but a dot on the page compared to their black canvas.

Anyway,as you would be aware, one of the major criticisms directed at the BOM in the aftermath of the flood was that it was a warnable event but was not warned for. As you have rightly pointed out, after posting a general Severe weather warning for SEQ that included the risk of flash flooding earlier in the day, the BOM was silent about the event as it unfolded (except for a call to Emergency services in Toowoomba @ lunchtime as I recall). The Bureau boss at the time said, basically, that there was no template to issue a specific Flash Flood warning for the Lockyer Valley (or any other specific valley). No such thing existed. Eventually, under the pump because the disaster was all over our TV screens, the BOM created a template and did put out a specific warning about events in the Lockyer, but sadly it was too late to change anything. I often wonder what would be different if a similar set of circumstances arose again. So, my question is, does the Bureau now have the capacity in similar circumstances to easily issue a warning for flash flooding in a specific catchment?

I long ago came to terms with the fact that the tragedy at Grantham wasn't any one person or organisation's fault. It was just a truly exceptional, horrible weather event. The point you raise in a later post about the key to the unfolding of this event being how absolutely saturated the catchment was at the start of that fateful day is right on the money. But the folks of Grantham, justifiably I think, believe that there was a collective failure to warn and protect them by a lot of organisations. There was an awful lot of time between when that rain fell and when Grantham got washed away. Even us amateurs have had to come to terms with our own inaction on the day. I could have driven to Grantham myself and warned the whole town with an hour to spare if I'd trusted my gut. So please don't think that I'm trying to mount a BOM bashing campaign. Not at all. I remain an avid fan of the work of the folks at the BOM. Just hoping for better if we ever face similar again. And we will. I hope you can find my question in the middle of this blurb. For the moderators, today it is fine and dry here. Like most folks in most places in South Qld and only few in the NE Queensland, I'm hoping for good rain, but not too much. It's still only January.

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#1485257 - 12/01/2019 23:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: buster]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I read somewhere that a similar inland flash flood in the Brisbane Valley occurred with the 1893 floods. That's almost 100+ years between events. I'm not surprised that BOM didn't really have a detailed system for that type of extreme event.

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#1485265 - 13/01/2019 08:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Sillybanter Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2017
Posts: 58
Loc: Toowoomba
I was in Toowoomba the day before the flood on our way to holidays at the coast. As I drove down the range and saw the level of flash flooding that had already occurred in Withcot in the days prior I said to my wife " I would not like to be here with what they have forecast to come". So there were some ominous signs on the ground at that time to anybody who had a knowledge of weather but to think anybody could every predict the scale of what was about to happen is the problem. Then if the warnings had been so dire would anybody have listened? We know they would now but thats with the benefit of hindsight.
I remember a story from South Australia's north east in maybe 97' some tropical moisture had lingered for days causing massive storms. After one of these storms a neighbour who live up the creek from another rang his neighbour and told him to get out of his house as there was a wall of water coming that was unprecedented. The house had never been in danger from the creek but on this particular event it was and the only thing that saved him was warning that it was coming from somebody who had seen it with his own eyes. My point being, storm warnings were in place, very high rainfall totals had been observed, but that was the one person that could have warned the guy that he would have listened to. Sometimes things just have to be seen to be believed.

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#1485266 - 13/01/2019 08:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1266
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Current forecast must be sponsored by Bunnings. Should’ve seen the punters there yday buying hoses and sprinklers. Outlook is Groundhog Day.

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#1485268 - 13/01/2019 08:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..13 JAN 2019 TIME..0750

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......27.2C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........67%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 20C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...SSE 4Kph
CURRENT MSL PRESSURE......1017.2HpA
CURRENT VISIBILITY........30KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........3/8 cloud, increasing.
RAIN SINCE 0900...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.4C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....19.5C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...17.9C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....18C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1016.8Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 32kph at 1430
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Early morning fog to the west.

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#1485269 - 13/01/2019 08:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Goin to be a red hot dry week ahead.Thank God for AirCon.Should be some scary power bills for many of us.At least we don't have to use the hot water for our showers.

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#1485271 - 13/01/2019 09:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
Don't have air con here. We pensioners can't afford to run it. Fans do very nicely.

Tank dry ( 90 mm rain needed to fill it ), lawn brown, possums being hand fed daily as their food sources drying out.

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#1485272 - 13/01/2019 09:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ahab Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 251
Loc: Brisbane, Indooroopilly
Temperature is also not too bad. Mornings feel almost coolish due to clear sky. Just bone dry.

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#1485274 - 13/01/2019 09:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Yes make the most of the early morning pleasantness. It would be a sweatfest in these caravan Parks I notice some cranky looking individuals of a morning driving past a few of em in this area haha

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#1485276 - 13/01/2019 09:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6086
This is yet another good reminder that while we still typically have a distinct summer max in rainfall, it's not always the case and the notion that we have a wet season as distinct as the tropics is not a realistic one.
We have a fair bit more variability in rainfall distribution throughout the year in comparison.

buster: Interesting account, thanks for sharing. Rainfall rates that are likely to cause extreme flash flooding like that are specifically meant to be covered by the SEWS in severe weather warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings (technically at least, rainfall rates have to meet an average recurrence interval whose threshold depends on where the area is but saturation of catchment areas should also be considered).

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#1485277 - 13/01/2019 10:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1868
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Goin to be a red hot dry week ahead.Thank God for AirCon.Should be some scary power bills for many of us.At least we don't have to use the hot water for our showers.


My air con packed it in a few days ago, getting someone out to have a look at it tomorrow {Monday ) Hate to think how much the repair bill will be let alone my next electricity bill. Been able to survive without it so far, have fans and I don't live far from the coast so get a nice breeze, and I have a pool. Don't think I could handle living in a house without air con west of the great divide though.

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#1485287 - 13/01/2019 14:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
One thing I don't understand with this gridlocked groundhog scenario is why high pressure dominates out there in our East coast waters when the central pressure of these highs is quite low ( hovering around 1017hp). Shouldn't take much of a frontal system to move it on surely

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#1485296 - 13/01/2019 15:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
gberg Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2015
Posts: 91
Loc: noosaville
For anyone looking for a temporary storm fix this is well worth a watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oagszCmJLpU

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#1485304 - 13/01/2019 17:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: gberg]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Originally Posted By: gberg
For anyone looking for a temporary storm fix this is well worth a watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oagszCmJLpU


Good one gberg beautiful Time lapse photography.I quite often watch a storm clip on YouTube in times like this.Last one I saw was worth a look too if you can put up with this hayseed's sniffing you'll get a laugh I'm sure over his commentary.Check out "dangerous thunderstorms with extreme lightning" by Frankie Arnold

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#1485314 - 13/01/2019 18:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
TWEEDSTORM must of seen me the other day

quote: " I notice some cranky looking individuals of a morning driving past a few of em in this area haha"

its not so much the hot annexe TWEEDSTORM , its when you run out of coffee in the morning. argh!!
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1485327 - 13/01/2019 20:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Maybe they're Storm chasers cranky about the lack of storms haha but yeah I'm with you Crikey . . Like a dead duck without a strong morning Coffee

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