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#1485246 - 12/01/2019 19:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3093
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Youíre a rude troll and contribute nothing to this tread other than bile, sod off.

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#1485248 - 12/01/2019 20:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18833
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Petros
Tiss OK, I'm sure that most regular posters on here know that I'm only a weather tiro.


I enjoy your input Petros . Don't stop posting .
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1485255 - 12/01/2019 22:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2444
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Looks like dry weather set to continue for the foreseeable future.

Still no widespread rain events to happen. That being a large vigorous trough system.

No two ways about it that we are still stuck in a multi year dry event.

I am not entirely convinced yet we will see an El Nino officially form, probably stay as a la nada with devastating consequences for the country.

On another US based forum they are all but convinced a big El Nino will form based on the current wind event near PNG. Unfortunately the US government shutdown is restricting data availability to see what the subsurface anomalies are currently doing.

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#1485256 - 12/01/2019 23:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 786
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Originally Posted By: Kino
Youíre a rude troll and contribute nothing to this tread other than bile, sod off.
rude troll? Iíve seen your twitter feed.

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#1485258 - 13/01/2019 01:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 2063
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Is it a weather thread or climate? What happened to the widespread rain and cyclone off Darwin? Does 30 years of data insufficient to 3 months of screenshots of sstís? If you want people to believe you. Post less. Oh IMO!

And your efforts are so much more important ? Pull your head in you dweeb.

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#1485261 - 13/01/2019 06:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7502
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
She's one dry, scorched country atm. Might as well throw away the SAM since it hasn't been representative of Australia's recent climate pattern - in fact, far from it.. ENSO? Nope. Almost identical pattern occurred during weak Nina / cool-neutral. IOD? Nope. Same happened when IOD was previously negative in 2016.

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#1485280 - 13/01/2019 11:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1857
Loc: Kingaroy
This drought will break eventually and when it does it will be dramatic.

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#1485284 - 13/01/2019 12:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3093
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
It gets said, ad nauseum, but Dorothea MacKellar nailed it back in the late 1800ís ď...of drought and flooding rains...Ē. If she can recognise that, not being a climate scientist and not homogenising data, why do we still struggle? We will have drier times and wetter times. It will reset and we will go back to flooding rains. It seems our continent isnít about fairly stable climates but extremes.


Edited by Kino (13/01/2019 12:58)

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#1485286 - 13/01/2019 14:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1734
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
One of the model outputs on CFS 3.4 anomalies have it tanking pretty much from Feb on down to -2.5. I would like to see a few more runs show up like that!
I have never been convinced of an El nino this time round. Looks like westerlies back right off again after this latest round....and there is a heap of cold water south of the equator that could move north and be quite erosive to any subsurface warmth in the far east Pac. Quick switch to big La nina please...
Of course there is more runs pushing for a result the other way and warming to 2.5 but something just doesnt feel right with that side of the ledger for some reason.

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#1485288 - 13/01/2019 14:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 565
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: Kino
It gets said, ad nauseum, but Dorothea MacKellar nailed it back in the late 1800ís ď...of drought and flooding rains...Ē. If she can recognise that, not being a climate scientist and not homogenising data, why do we still struggle? We will have drier times and wetter times. It will reset and we will go back to flooding rains. It seems our continent isnít about fairly stable climates but extremes.


That's a quite well understood idea by climate scientists. Although the problem is that we are a land of extremes becoming more extreme. Anyone can understand that higher temperatures will lead to more evaporation, exacerbating a drought. While per 1 degree of warming that's 7% more global precipitable.

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#1485293 - 13/01/2019 15:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1734
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
And Yet look at the record cold and huge snow depths across the NH. I wish I could find the article that talked about NH getting very cold and SH warming up in Grand Solar minimum. Certainly could get a sense something like that starting to happen as it approaches.... Because we have been having very hot summers and they have been having very cold winters. Whatever is happening its not just Australia being a land of extremes there is extreme ends of the spectrum happening simultaneously on either side of the earth.

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#1485294 - 13/01/2019 15:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 565
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
I wonder if there were some very unconventional investors who followed things like the Grand Solar minimum. Put money into things such as wheat futures they would have made an amazing amount of money.

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#1485295 - 13/01/2019 15:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ashestoashes]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1734
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
I wonder if there were some very unconventional investors who followed things like the Grand Solar minimum. Put money into things such as wheat futures they would have made an amazing amount of money.


Hell yes...some very smart money on this stuff...

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#1485297 - 13/01/2019 15:30 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3579
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
And Yet look at the record cold and huge snow depths across the NH.



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#1485298 - 13/01/2019 15:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1734
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
https://www.sott.net/article/404782-From...TCqeRXng_VLityU

Its January MH. November isnt Winter. Cherry picking professional you are.

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#1485300 - 13/01/2019 16:12 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7502
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Yeah, I'm not sure why Mike posted a chart of November?

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#1485306 - 13/01/2019 17:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3579
Loc: Buderim
Because global data sets for Dec aren't available.

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#1485316 - 13/01/2019 18:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
pete28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1145
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
And Yet look at the record cold and huge snow depths across the NH. I wish I could find the article that talked about NH getting very cold and SH warming up in Grand Solar minimum. Certainly could get a sense something like that starting to happen as it approaches.... Because we have been having very hot summers and they have been having very cold winters. Whatever is happening its not just Australia being a land of extremes there is extreme ends of the spectrum happening simultaneously on either side of the earth.


Has it actually been a colder then average December and half of January though for Europe? Or just a few big snow events which most certainly doesnít always translate into colder then normal temps?

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#1485321 - 13/01/2019 18:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3093
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Because global data sets for Dec aren't available.


So, again, why bother posting it? It wasnít relevant, it isnít recent and it was nothing but a cherry pick. Fancy putting up an autumn chart when they were talking about winter. Disingenuous at the very least.

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#1485322 - 13/01/2019 19:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7681
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
https://www.sott.net/article/404782-From...TCqeRXng_VLityU

Its January MH. November isnt Winter. Cherry picking professional you are.


What did Mike provide on this?

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