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#1485518 - 15/01/2019 15:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
Re my earlier post about nearby Manly Railway Station rain. Last year was the lowest ever on 1.2mm, so far this month they have had 4.8mm. Average is 139mm. Never before have there been 2 consecutive years below 10mm ( back to 1898 ). But half the month to go so we might get lucky..

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#1485578 - 16/01/2019 08:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5161
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..16 JAN 2019 TIME..0715

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......26.4C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........64%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 19C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED...NNE 5kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1014.7Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........35KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........0.0mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......31.9C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....21.1C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...18.7C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....19C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1015.0Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..NE 33kph at 1412
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... No signficant weather.

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#1485618 - 16/01/2019 12:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Golden State Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 220
Loc: Buderim

Are these bom 'seasonal outlooks' just a rehash of an area's average for time period listed or is it a genuine snapshot of what is likely to occur factoring in the current climate influences ect ?

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/total/75/seasonal/0
_________________________
Just rain FFS

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#1485619 - 16/01/2019 12:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Golden State]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Golden State

Are these bom 'seasonal outlooks' just a rehash of an area's average for time period listed or is it a genuine snapshot of what is likely to occur factoring in the current climate influences ect ?

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/total/75/seasonal/0

They use the Bureau's latest seasonal outlook for rainfall (which in turn is the output from the new'ish ACCESS-S seasonal forecast model).

But before looking at the seasonal outlook maps, I'd strongly encourage people to look at the past accuracy of each outlook because it varies depending on area and time of year - the link is here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/skill/seasonal/0

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#1485663 - 16/01/2019 18:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 606
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Looks to be some interesting times not too far away ? ? ?
I know it is a week away, but to have the following week of instability is interesting enough for this duck - & 7 days in a row surely accounts for something. One could quite likely assume some change about to happen ?
Maybe worth a dig around for those of you guru's -or- just wait till time passes for more accuracy, but on the same token, where ever and how ever it may eventuate, it would be quite nice for many... Touch wood blush

_________________________
Weather or not ?

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#1485669 - 16/01/2019 18:32 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC - ridge right through till 26th.
GFS - ridge right through till 30th.

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#1485672 - 16/01/2019 18:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Give us something for Australia day please..

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#1485681 - 16/01/2019 19:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Looking very grim, soil bone dry, soon need to buy water to keep fruit trees & plants alive. This constant heat & no precip really stressing out plants. Looks like a 2mm January.

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#1485683 - 16/01/2019 19:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Mega]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
One thing I don't understand with this gridlocked groundhog scenario is why high pressure dominates out there in our East coast waters when the central pressure of these highs is quite low ( hovering around 1017hp). Shouldn't take much of a frontal system to move it on surely


It's a good question that I don't know the answer to either. I'm not sure if it requires a major trough to erode the ridge or whether the ridge would have to move on first for a trough to be able to dig in in the first place.

Anyway, the latest EC run looks absolutely dismal with a continuation of much the same. GFS is trying to break ridge down after the 24th but I wouldn't hold my breath considering it keeps putting it off and was originally trying to break it down around the 19th.


A lot of Australia lies under the subtropical high pressure belt that circles these latitudes (due to the sinking air on the polar side of the Hadley Cell) around each hemisphere which predisposes high pressure systems to form more easily and persist for longer in much of these types of latitudes. It also occurs in the northern hemisphere to some extent but the huge landmasses and big mountain barriers tend to disrupt this pattern to a greater extent.

But I suspect that the lower pressures (compared to say those over Tasman Sea waters) over much of inland Australia caused by the intense summer landmass heating have also been helping these highs to be more persistent to their east, despite the Tasman Sea waters being warmer than normal.

I also suspect the jetstream and hemispheric longwave patterns have been another major contributor in encouraging the persistent high pressure in the Tasman Sea.
Of course all these are interconnected to at least some degree one way or the other.

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#1485685 - 16/01/2019 19:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Bordering on the ridiculous this weather pattern.Just have to grit our teeth, keep a stiff upper lip and carry on regardless. Gives us an insight into what it's like living in the Sahara desert

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#1485686 - 16/01/2019 19:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Thanks also for your perspectives on that previous question of mine Mega an Ken. Interesting posts.

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#1485688 - 16/01/2019 19:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
While we sit under the relentless ridge. Many parts of Australia have been sitting under a relentless tropical dip in isobars.
Here is a snap of 16th jan (today) and the usual diurnal max uprising.
Noticing the storm band west of the divide once again as ACCESSr suggested

source weatherzone
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1485689 - 16/01/2019 20:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3494
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
So far this summer heat wise to me it hasn't seemed to bad apart from a few days obviously further west away from a seabreeze tells another story. I know everyone's definition of hot or cold is different. Its most certainly very stable conditions with not much going on upstairs in our region but inland NSW would be getting something atleast but not sure about widespread rain. The light NE'ly winds have been not too bad imo even the himidity has not been there, its warm but it's not unbearable even the odd cumulas onshore winds, but clearly there's no triggers no upper level support just ridge. I'm not too surprised by the boringness seems to happen through January pretty regularly with the odd exception but really its not a big window. Think it will be awhilw for precip but it's hard to really give any sort of hope as it just seems like this is the pattern for now. Some places will get rain while others places stay relentlessly dry.


Edited by Steve O (16/01/2019 20:10)

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#1485702 - 16/01/2019 21:51 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Steve O]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 571
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: Steve O
So far this summer heat wise to me it hasn't seemed to bad apart from a few days obviously further west away from a seabreeze tells another story. I know everyone's definition of hot or cold is different. Its most certainly very stable conditions with not much going on upstairs in our region but inland NSW would be getting something atleast but not sure about widespread rain. The light NE'ly winds have been not too bad imo even the himidity has not been there, its warm but it's not unbearable even the odd cumulas onshore winds, but clearly there's no triggers no upper level support just ridge. I'm not too surprised by the boringness seems to happen through January pretty regularly with the odd exception but really its not a big window. Think it will be awhilw for precip but it's hard to really give any sort of hope as it just seems like this is the pattern for now. Some places will get rain while others places stay relentlessly dry.
as someone that works outdoors in the sun each day, the Thursday and Friday before Xmas was pretty hot,... this week hasnít been a lot of fun to work in either, whilst not overly hot heat wise, my shirt has been saturated from sweating so much most days. I havenít looked to see what humidity levels have been, but itís definitely not that enjoyable to work in. Gotta say though, night time temps this Summer havenít been that bad though.

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#1485703 - 16/01/2019 21:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1373
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
After moving from nz. I rated the shift 5.0c differece from nz to brisbane.
I then moved to townsville and rate that as the same. Another 5.0c from bris to townsville. It is hot there. Deference is it does not cool off here at night like brisbane does. Yes its hot here but there is still some coolness in the air
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1485704 - 16/01/2019 22:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1373
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
It's warm but go north for a bit then brisbane is not that bad
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1485707 - 16/01/2019 22:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: tsunami]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2545
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
The weather has been boring, but boringly beautiful. Without that ridge we'd have been suffering a lot more heat with the rest of Australia.

Meanwhile 06z GFS is going for the mother of all scenarios to break this dry spell. Cyclone forms in the GOC mid next week. Drops the monsoon trough across all of eastern QLD and then does an Oswald exiting right out through SEQ as a sub-990 low. It doesn't get far before the ridge sends it back toward the coast causing a huge convergence dump over NE NSW. Stupid GFS teasing us with stupid scenarios. Have to laugh at its attempt to make the ridge useful for something haha.

Still looks like we're going to get some sort of weather next week though.


Edited by Nature's Fury (16/01/2019 22:58)

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#1485708 - 16/01/2019 23:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: tsunami]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 571
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: tsunami
It's warm but go north for a bit then brisbane is not that bad
bayside Brisbane is usually about 3 or 4 degrees cooler and feels better with the seabreeze over living in the Western suburbs of Brisbane....I always enjoy the bayside jobs we do purely due to the noticeable difference in the temps and seabreeze there.

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#1485709 - 16/01/2019 23:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1268
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
I get 5 weeks holidays every Dec and Jan. Usually, at least 2 of those weeks are so hot day and night you canít sleep and you canít work outside. We hit over 49 here one day last year. The last two days are our first 2 days over 40 these holidays yet there is still a nice cool breeze at night. Iíve havenít known a summer this mild since Iíve lived out this way (Dalby-Jimbour), at least 14 years. Yes, we had some hot days in Nov but that was the warmest weíve had so far. In saying that, weíve also had a lot less rain and storms. Guess it goes hand in hand.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2019 - 182mm Jan - .5 Feb - 1.5, Mar - 143, Apr - 0, May - 8, June - 29

2018 - 508.2
2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1485720 - 17/01/2019 08:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - January to July 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
GFS continues to play with a strong monsoon surge late in its two week forecast period. Latest run has a big monsoon low over the middle of Qld potentially giving SEQ a moist and unstable NE flow. Modoki typically results in the monsoon starting late and ending early, but being stronger than normal. Whether that would produce anything for SEQ is questionable, but the GFS extended runs suggest the situation is worth keeping an eye on.

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