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#1485305 - 13/01/2019 17:14 NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4908
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's been in the models for a while. A severe heatwave will grip much of NSW from January 15 to 19.

The air mass is quite hot, with 850 temps peaking at 30 over parts of NSW Thursday Friday and 28 over Sydney. Temperatures may hit 46+ in parts of the State.

Forecast maxima:
* Sydney : 5 days 31+, peaking at 36
* Parramatta: 6 days 32+, 4 days 37+, peaking at 39
* Penrith: 6 days 35+ starting 14th, including a run of 5 days 40+, peaking at 43 on Friday.
* Hunter : similar but even hotter,
* Illawarra: similar to Eastern Sydney but slightly cooler.
* Canberra is expecting a run of 6 days 35+, including unusual back to back 40's Wednesday and Thursday.
* Bathurst's forecast is similar to Canberra's, including the back to back 40s.

The general circulation looks to be a weak N-NW on most days, so sea breezes will moderate coastal temperatures, except possibly on Saturday 19th. The air mass will be fairly humid, especially near the coast, but storm chances don't look good until possibly right at the end as a cool change arrives.

A significant cool change arrives on Saturday 19th. Its timing will determine how hot it gets on that day and possibly also storm and rain chances.


Edited by Steve777 (13/01/2019 17:14)

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#1485330 - 13/01/2019 20:46 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Jac0b Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/12/2018
Posts: 103
I wonder how this heatwave will compare to Jan 1939. It won't be as long as the 1939 heatwave but the actual temps may be as high. There's data for Canberra (Acton - closed now) and Bathurst Agricultural Station (which is still open). 14th Jan 1939 was 47.8 at Richmond but there are no official BOM records for Western Sydney for Jan 1939, only the observatory hill which is not representative of the West.

Jan 1939 ... Bathurst .... Canberra
6th......... 33.0 ........ 36.2
7th......... 36.6 ........ 38.7
8th......... 37.8 ........ 39.3
9th......... 39.3 ........ 39.2
10th........ 39.5 ........ 41.1
11th........ 40.6 ........ 42.8
12th........ 39.8 ........ 39.8
13th........ 40.6 ........ 41.9
14th........ 40.5 ........ 40.8
15th........ 39.0 ........ 24.4

Canberra had 2 sets of back to back 40's during this heatwave. Bathurst had 7 days in a row above 39 and Canberra also had 7 days in a row above 39.

Given that these two locations are elevated above 600 - 700 meters, I would be very interested to see what kind of temps Western Sydney experienced that week, possibly a whole week of 45+?

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#1485331 - 13/01/2019 21:02 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: Steve777]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2165
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
My impression from 'official'* contributions to this forum are that those records exist. They just have not been digitised yet.

*BT

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#1485332 - 13/01/2019 21:09 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Duane Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/11/2005
Posts: 1424
Loc: Lake Albert, Wagga Wagga, NSW.
A whole week of 40's for us with a 45 on Wednesday!

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#1485333 - 13/01/2019 21:10 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: Steve777]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 664
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
That heatwave actually holds the basin record for maximum temperatures.
The Richmond RAAF Weather station recorded 47.8 degrees(Jan 14 1939) which is pretty amazing that the record has held up.

This SMH article is an archive, the human cost was also jaw dropping.
SMH article.

This heatwave is bang on time I must say these mid Jan heatwaves arrive like clockwork.


Edited by ashestoashes (13/01/2019 21:12)

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#1485336 - 13/01/2019 21:23 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: ashestoashes]
Jac0b Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/12/2018
Posts: 103
According to that article, the temp was already 42.5 degrees at 09:30am, yet the previous day's (13th Jan) temp at Sydney Obs is only 31.8.

With the 09:00am reset shouldn't it have been reported as what the temp reached by 09:00? Which would have been maybe high 30's .

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#1485337 - 13/01/2019 21:34 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3266
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Again, no heatwave here. Temps don’t even hit 30 at this stage thanks to the seabreeze. Albion Park only gets early 30’s which isn’t unusual or extraordinary. Seems it’s inland again.

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#1485338 - 13/01/2019 21:48 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: Kino]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 223
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Originally Posted By: Kino
Again, no heatwave here. Temps don’t even hit 30 at this stage thanks to the seabreeze. Albion Park only gets early 30’s which isn’t unusual or extraordinary. Seems it’s inland again.

And a good thing, too wink

_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1485339 - 13/01/2019 21:51 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: Steve777]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5428
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Regarding that 1939 heatwave, it must have been a significant cool change to come through afterwards.
Canberra had temps on 16th - 18.3c, 17th - 16.5c and 18th - 16.9c and
Sydney had temps on 16th - 19.3c and 17th - 19.5c.

Hopefully we won't see those type of temps till August!! poke
_________________________
Rainfall
2018 - 1145.9mm
2019 MTD - 32.0mm
2019 YTD - 233.6mm
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#1485340 - 13/01/2019 21:52 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Nick Sykes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2001
Posts: 684
Loc: Franklin, ACT
Hi All

In Canberra if it reaches the forecast maximums this week it will be 11 days of 35+ by the 19th, just one shy of the record 12 days 35+ in Jan 2017, which was also the warmest month on record at 32.8C av max (this month averaging 31.7C). Looks like more hot weather next week as well. Canberra's recent January's have been very warm.

Nick

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#1485341 - 13/01/2019 21:55 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3266
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
And 1939?

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#1485342 - 13/01/2019 22:00 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: EddyG]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 223
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Regarding that 1939 heatwave, it must have been a significant cool change to come through afterwards.
Canberra had temps on 16th - 18.3c, 17th - 16.5c and 18th - 16.9c and
Sydney had temps on 16th - 19.3c and 17th - 19.5c.

Hopefully we won't see those type of temps till August!! poke

Not any lower than 16.5° C for Canberra in bloody August?! crazy

That'd be one boring "Winter" for certain whistle
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1485343 - 13/01/2019 22:04 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: Adaminaby Angler]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5428
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Regarding that 1939 heatwave, it must have been a significant cool change to come through afterwards.
Canberra had temps on 16th - 18.3c, 17th - 16.5c and 18th - 16.9c and
Sydney had temps on 16th - 19.3c and 17th - 19.5c.

Hopefully we won't see those type of temps till August!! poke

Not any lower than 16.5° C for Canberra in bloody August?! crazy

That'd be one boring "Winter" for certain whistle


Lol. I was only thinking of us coastal dwellers.
Too many Iron Jacks tonight.
_________________________
Rainfall
2018 - 1145.9mm
2019 MTD - 32.0mm
2019 YTD - 233.6mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1485345 - 13/01/2019 22:09 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: Jac0b]
lab276 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 02/11/2018
Posts: 14
Originally Posted By: Jac0b
According to that article, the temp was already 42.5 degrees at 09:30am, yet the previous day's (13th Jan) temp at Sydney Obs is only 31.8.

With the 09:00am reset shouldn't it have been reported as what the temp reached by 09:00? Which would have been maybe high 30's .


Was it not midnight to midnight at the time? I think I remember reading that in another thread a while ago. Switched to 9am to 9am from the 60s?

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#1485346 - 13/01/2019 22:30 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: Kino]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 773
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
Originally Posted By: Kino
And 1939?


Mean max in 1939 at the Acton station was 30.8 - less than 2017 and 2018 at Canberra Airport, which were 32.8 and 31.6 respectively.

January 1932 was even warmer than 1939, with 32.5 - but still less than 2017.
I think this January is likely to trump 2017, as the mean max is already running way over average at 31.9.

Around here 36 is forecast on Thursday. While there isn't much of a record in the local area to compare against, I'd say such a high temperature has never been seen in this area in over 100 years.

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#1485347 - 13/01/2019 22:40 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Jac0b Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/12/2018
Posts: 103
An interesting note about Canberra's Jan record of 32.8, this is based on a period of 1st - 31st, which is 31 days long.

If any 31-day period is taken into consideration (ie. can overlap 2 months) then the overlapping 31 days of 15th Dec 1938 - 14th Jan 1939 averaged 34.4 degrees in Canberra (Acton). This 31-day period had 15 days > 35°C, 8 days > 39°C and 4 days > 40°C, with a peak of 42.8°C.


The 34.4 31-day average is considerably higher than the Jan record of 32.8, but there may be other 31-day periods overlapping between two months that had a warmer average as well.

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#1485349 - 13/01/2019 23:12 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 223
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
According to BOM & Meteye, 34° C is the highest I'll get during the week.

According to Weatherzone (Rhine Falls, NSW), 32° C is the highest.

Google forecasts also agree with 32° C.

Looks like I'd have to make a little trip down to the Riverina...there be Summer laugh



_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1485350 - 13/01/2019 23:46 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: ashestoashes]
Morham Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 140
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Quote:

This SMH article is an archive, the human cost was also jaw dropping.
SMH article.

This heatwave is bang on time I must say these mid Jan heatwaves arrive like clockwork.

Great article and good find. There wouldnt be too many split system air conditioners around...

Quote:
Late on Friday the barrier collapsed when the sea breeze fell to a dead calm. As soon as the buffer was removed, the wall of heat advanced unchecked, and on Friday night the phenomenon of temperature rising by leaps and bounds, long after sundown, astonished Sydney residents, many of whom went to theatres at 8 p.m.. when the temperature was just over 80 (26.7) degrees, and came out to faceblasts of scorching wind, which had caused it to rise to over 90 (32.2) degrees.

The night that followed was probably the most remarkable ever experienced in Sydney. Sleep was practically impossible, as the hot, dry air permeated through the coolest houses, and made furniture, floors, and bedding hot to the touch. It was oppressive indoors, but far worse out of doors

Sounds so dramatic smile

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#1485351 - 14/01/2019 02:41 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: Steve777]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8783
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Geewiz, so they were as dramatic back then as they are now laugh

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#1485355 - 14/01/2019 06:57 Re: NSW / ACT - Severe Mid Summer Heatwave - January 15-19 2019 [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1257
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Interesting stats about the Jan 1939 heatwave, still the benchmark of all heatwaves, and the old Richmond RAAF record still stands.
This Richmond record from Jan 1939 is the big one that has withstood all challenges, including Penrith last year, and even Feb 2017 at the new Richmond site.
Most Hunter sites were not around in Jan 1939, even Williamtown did not come into being as full operational until 1951.
I vaguely recall reading somewhere that Jerrys Plains got to 49C that day in Jan 1939, but cannot verify that, from a discontinued station.
Locally going for 39C on Tuesday then 4 days in a row over 40C, peaking at 43C on Friday , with Tocal going for 44C that day -and a possible crack at the Jan record from 2013.
Singleton and Scone going for 3 days in a row of 43C, and 5 in a row over 40C at Scone. (Singleton could well crack that as well)
Not often that happens, can't think of the last time, but these heatwaves are now increasing in both their intensity and duration.


Edited by DerekHV (14/01/2019 07:05)

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