NOTICE!

The Weatherzone forum has now closed and is in read-only mode until the 1st of November when it will close permanently. We would like to thank everyone who has contributed over the past 18 years.

If you would like to continue the discussion you can follow us on Facebook and Twitter or participate in discussions at AusWeather or Ski.com.au forums.

Page 7 of 53 < 1 2 ... 5 6 7 8 9 ... 52 53 >
Topic Options
#1485678 - 16/01/2019 19:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 203
Loc: Peachester
Can those with a better memory of the last warm Tasman blob explain what is causing it. Seems to be coupled with the high or is that my imagination?

Top
#1485679 - 16/01/2019 19:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Can those with a better memory of the last warm Tasman blob explain what is causing it. Seems to be coupled with the high or is that my imagination?


Definitely coupled with a continuous blocking high. Why, is anyone's guess.

Top
#1485680 - 16/01/2019 19:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Let’s just wait and see what happens. 🙃

Top
#1485682 - 16/01/2019 19:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5339
Loc: Not tellin!
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: GringosRain


Its extremely hot and dry here for 4 years also. I'm experiencing what is happening just as much as anyone else. My farm is running out of water. I have my eyes wide open.


So what measures do you think we need to take in an effort to reduce the effects of drought since...I'm just going to say it...so many farmers out there still refuse to believe that climate change is actually a thing? Do we all just sit back, let the prolonged dry periods take over and not even try to do anything about it? Many of these farmers complain about how dry it is but don't seem to want to push for any solution.
The most effective and attainable goal for farmers to do it to adopt regenerative farming techniques which build organic matter, reduce input costs and deliver more resilient soils and therefor better ability to handle extremes. Whether it be extreme dry,
Wet, hot or cold. This will work far better than any tax, solar panel or windmill

Top
#1485687 - 16/01/2019 19:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 203
Loc: Peachester
Its certainly been driving my climate for the past month.

Top
#1485691 - 16/01/2019 20:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Mega- People need to have a deep understanding of the dark underbelly of global geopolitics before the forbidden topic can begin to be discussed in full context, and I think nearly everyone doesnt have a broad enough frame of reference in that department.
On that basis, we can never join the dots properly on climate drivers or anything else with the relatively (restricted) primitive tools we have at our disposal and the controlled mainstream narratives constantly fired at us.

This thread is informative and useful on some level, but of course can be frustratingly contained because of what cant be shared. There are obvious factions, but there shouldn’t be.

Its all an illusion, both sides are being played.

Divide and conquer...the world is run on it and the playbook works beautifully for all sorts of things and us dummies fall for it time and time again.

We the people arent the issue. The banks, corporations and fake (corporate) governments are. We need to wake the hell up quick smart and go all yellow vest, because all the solutions to fix our "problems" are available and have been for a long time. They could be deployed tomorrow.

Think MDB fish die-offs, think Adani mine. Are the people really in control here? No. So dont fall for the controlled msm narrative on anything. The corporate governments do what they want...because we arent their true masters. The Australian government are truly one of the worst too, the true bum lickers of the world. Have our land, have our water, have our mineral resources. What a joke.

The climate is changing, in fact many things are changing, but its not necessarily for the reasons the general populace believes.

The world is slowly waking up to these truths though. Aussies are lagging a bit more, but we can wake up and take action too. Its not action against someone for being an AGW believer or non believer or liberal or labour, or democrat or republican, or catholic or muslim. Mere titles used to distract and control. We all need to turn our attention to the puppet masters of the world who sit in shadows; and show them what a revolution really looks like. Not by sharing a meme on facebook, but by rolling the governments and central banks around the world like dominos.

We need a new system.
We need free energy released immediately.
We need true rule of law, not the law of the sea, the law of the land.
We need to demand our civil liberties remain in tact with a right to privacy and not let the totalitarian tiptoe based on false flag events to continue to fool us into cedeing our rights away through silence (silence is assent).
We need to have access to alternative medicines and maintain our rights over our bodies.
We need to maintain our sovereignty and not relinquish our rights to foreign entities, corporations and agreements such as the UN and the TPP.
We need real currency backed by gold, not this fake fiat [censored] we have now....I could go on with pages.
In short we need real foundations for a new system, not this façade of freedom that the sheeple continue to accept. Until people truly wake up, these crust deep debates are a yawn. The whole system is about control of the people. Nothing will change for the better while we are perceived as the enemy by our own governments and whilst we perceive our fellow man that way.
Control of the people requires control of the financial system and the current financial system requires "growth" and profit and growth and profit are pretty much mutually exclusive with true reparations of our environment. Not just carbon, but deforestation, plastic pollution, riparian systems, habitat destruction, ending fake wars, exposing (ending) geoengineering, species extinction...etc etc.

Its not that people and farmers dont want to take action, but they know something is not quite right about the mainstream narrative and they are right. There is more much more going on, we are being blamed for it, but intuitively people know somethings up. It doesnt mean we shouldnt be doing proactive things as communities, we should....just ask more questions, Go deeper and get more answers. The trick is that enough people need to go digging and join the dots at that deeper level. Then they might get truly angry and start to take real action to implement a proper new system. Not an easy road Im sure, but worth it.

I think it needs a revolution Mega, and it might be coming....

Love to the haters in advance. Back to my rock. May the ENSO discussions be blessed with clarity!! lol

Top
#1485695 - 16/01/2019 20:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: GringosRain]
Delta-T Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 203
Loc: Peachester
Originally Posted By: GringosRain

You have misquoted what I actually wrote


No I cut and pasted it.
And Btw volcanoes and earthquakes are not increasing.


Edited by Delta-T (16/01/2019 20:30)

Top
#1485699 - 16/01/2019 21:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Delta-T]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: Delta-T
Originally Posted By: GringosRain

You have misquoted what I actually wrote


No I cut and pasted it.
And Btw volcanoes and earthquakes are not increasing.


I did not say "lucky we went into that GSM" I said;

"lucky we went into that GSM period a bit on the warm side otherwise it could have been a whole lot worse"

You cant cut a statement in half and say its the same thing.

As for earthquakes and volcanos, I read that mag 6.5+ earthquake were on the up in last couple years and the number of current active volcanos was at around 40 which was high. Off top of my head...reasoning is that as solar output decreases more cosmic rays hit the earths magnetosphere and are directed towards the poles exciting seismic activity. I dont have time to chase down the sources. So I will accept that I was incorrect and that it is not relevant.

Top
#1485718 - 17/01/2019 08:07 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Modoki influence is late but intense monsoon. Activity so far has been weak, but GFS 14 days is starting to pick up on strong activity at the end of its forecast.

With the MJO timed to the end of January, and modoki typically enhancing rain through Jan and Feb, but supressing it in Dec/March it might be the one big monsoon burst for the season.

Top
#1485768 - 17/01/2019 15:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
BoM have today issued a special climate statement about the widespread heatwaves in Dec 2018 and Jan 2019.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs68.pdf

Top
#1485792 - 17/01/2019 18:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
From link above:

• An unusual extended period of heatwaves over much of Australia began in early December 2018 and continued into January 2019
• For nationally averaged mean maximum temperature, Australia had its hottest December day on record and second-hottest for any month
• Numerous locations reported their highest daily maximum temperature on record for December or January, with some locations exceeding their previous records by large margins
• It was Australia's warmest December on record
• Every State and Territory was affected by heatwave conditions at some stage during the event
• These widespread heatwaves during December and early January followed an extreme heatwave that affected the tropical Queensland coast during late November 2018
• The current heat event is continuing and this Special Climate Statement will be updated at the end of January"

Top
#1485797 - 17/01/2019 18:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
mammatus meestrus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 80
Loc: lennox head
the dry signal and heat is profound now.

Top
#1485798 - 17/01/2019 19:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Has got extremely dry down here, with 7 weeks of the hottest part of summer to come, I hope the next MJO plays out like Mike suspects over the next 2 weeks.

Top
#1485836 - 18/01/2019 00:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I've just been looking through a few SST anomaly archives of previous years and one thing that stands out to me is how El/La-Nada we've been in since 2015. None since have really stuck. Last year and the year before were wannabe La-Ninas and this year is just a wannabe El-Nino. All of the signatures look very weak in comparison to real Nino/Nina years. Sort of makes you wonder when the next strong phase of Nina/Nino will actually be because maybe then the weather will get interesting again through drought stricken Australia.

Top
#1485867 - 18/01/2019 09:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
For me, it seems that it wont rain in Australia (monsoon areas aside), unless there is a definite La Nina, and probably more importantly, a strongly negative IOD.

Nice to see all models now predicting tropical storm systems to develop over the Nth Tropical Aus regions throughout next week.

Top
#1485885 - 18/01/2019 13:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
The far east has warmed somewhat recently, and the region near the dateline has cooled. Does this mean that the current event is moving away from Modoki status?

I've marked the two peak areas of warming.



Then look at the atmospheric response, with roughly the same areas marked (by eyeball).



It is clear that the western warm area is having a significant impact on the atmosphere, with large increases in convection near to this warm water. In contrast for the eastern warm spot there is little convective response. Perhaps a slight increase in convection, but somewhat west, and away from the equator. If this is a genuine atmospheric response to the far east warming it is dominated by the response further west.

Top
#1485891 - 18/01/2019 14:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
The far east has warmed somewhat recently, and the region near the dateline has cooled. Does this mean that the current event is moving away from Modoki status?

I've marked the two peak areas of warming.







All in the eye of the beholder Mike, you see the SST as above, I see it like it actually is:



...which shows Nino.4 warmer than Nino3.4 and the Pacific far cooler in the east. If I was a cloud trying to form over tropical (EQ) Pacific, ....I'd be looking to do it over the West side of Nino.4. Which is typical of neutral ESNO.

Not that I dont agree with you that most of Aus is in a bad drought, ....it's just why is the sticking point.

Top
#1485892 - 18/01/2019 14:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I'm still not convinced by it being a Modoki in the first place. Only source I can find that are calling it a Modoki is JAMSTEC and even then, they only say, "Modoki-like." The rest just seem to be calling it a weak-Nino but that's only on the US's scale. On ours, still warm-neutral.

Top
#1485893 - 18/01/2019 14:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Petros


...which shows Nino.4 warmer than Nino3.4 and the Pacific far cooler in the east. If I was a cloud trying to form over tropical (EQ) Pacific, ....I'd be looking to do it over the West side of Nino.4.


Which is what is happening.
Originally Posted By: Petros

Which is typical of neutral ESNO.


Typical of neutral ENSO is clouds having a preference to form over the Australian region, and not a couple thousand kilometers to the east. Clouds forming over nino 4 is typical of modoki.

Top
#1485925 - 18/01/2019 18:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2019 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Disagree, I think that the state of the Pacific, when viewed from SatIR shows a classic ENSO neutral state.

....meanwhile I was lucky enough to score 10mm from storms embedded in this NW'ly sourced moisture band today:



Not a drought fixer for SE Aus, but nice to see this type of atmospherics' this time of the year! ....bring on next week when the MJO is set to arrive smile

This is a classic "model shop" (just using latest model run on WZ) but GFS is seeing this in days to come:




Note that little large scale rain over Aus is evident in this run, ....but look at the "change in potential" coming up for parched Aus in coming days.


Edited by Petros (18/01/2019 18:56)

Top
Page 7 of 53 < 1 2 ... 5 6 7 8 9 ... 52 53 >


Who's Online
0 registered (), 38 Guests and 1 Spider online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
MatthewBr, Raweth, Russellmill
Forum Stats
29947 Members
32 Forums
24194 Topics
1529247 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image