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#1486384 - 22/01/2019 23:20 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Re Penrith, there's a lot of missing data for this month. Richmond might be a better indication for Sydney's far West, tracking 20.6 - 33.0 degrees for the month, including today, for a daily mean of 27.0 - tropical stuff for the coast - and anomalies of 2.9 and 2.7.

The average January maxima for Penrith and Richmond are 31.0 and 30.3 respectively - both have records since the mid 1990s. Richmond is a bit closer to the sea. On this basis, if we had the missing data, maybe Penrith would be tracking at about 33.5 to 34.0 for maxima.

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#1486385 - 22/01/2019 23:24 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 375
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
I know, 35C definitely appears to be the new 30C. You can imagine my horror that prompted me to start this thread upon seeing that Mt Boyce, a solid 1000m’s higher than Penrith, is within a shot of recording a 30C avg max for the month. And of course there isn’t even the urbanisation factor to blame it on as may partly be the case for Penrith.

You need to stop basing these matters on altitude alone; Mt. Boyce lies much farther westwards than Penrith—that alone yields far greater prominence than altitude.
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#1486411 - 23/01/2019 10:17 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Adaminaby Angler]
ipex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/05/2014
Posts: 182
Loc: Katoomba, NSW
Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
I know, 35C definitely appears to be the new 30C. You can imagine my horror that prompted me to start this thread upon seeing that Mt Boyce, a solid 1000m’s higher than Penrith, is within a shot of recording a 30C avg max for the month. And of course there isn’t even the urbanisation factor to blame it on as may partly be the case for Penrith.

You need to stop basing these matters on altitude alone; Mt. Boyce lies much farther westwards than Penrith—that alone yields far greater prominence than altitude.


It's true that altitude isn't the only factor to consider but Mt Boyce isn't particularly far from Penrith. In fact, as the crow flies, Penrith is closer to Mt Boyce than it is to Sydney.

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#1486413 - 23/01/2019 11:06 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: ipex]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 759
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Originally Posted By: ipex
Originally Posted By: Adaminaby Angler
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
I know, 35C definitely appears to be the new 30C. You can imagine my horror that prompted me to start this thread upon seeing that Mt Boyce, a solid 1000m’s higher than Penrith, is within a shot of recording a 30C avg max for the month. And of course there isn’t even the urbanisation factor to blame it on as may partly be the case for Penrith.

You need to stop basing these matters on altitude alone; Mt. Boyce lies much farther westwards than Penrith—that alone yields far greater prominence than altitude.


It's true that altitude isn't the only factor to consider but Mt Boyce isn't particularly far from Penrith. In fact, as the crow flies, Penrith is closer to Mt Boyce than it is to Sydney.



Because of the altitude and it being further away from the coast than Penrith. Mt Boyce doesn't often receive an afternoon sea breeze like Penrith does and if the sea breeze does arrive it would be after the heat peaks. Penrith on some days will receive the sea breeze before the heats reaches its full potential. Also some days where the sea breeze arrives in the morning. It might not reach Mount Boyce till the afternoon which gives it more time to heat up.

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#1486414 - 23/01/2019 11:15 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Guys please I lived in the BM’s for 30years. The sea breeze often affects the BM’s and it is generally only during mod-strong W-NW flows that it doesn’t, under which conditions Penrith is hot as fark anyway.

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#1486415 - 23/01/2019 11:22 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand
Guys please I lived in the BM’s for 30years. The sea breeze often affects the BM’s and it is generally only during mod-strong W-NW flows that it doesn’t, under which conditions Penrith is hot as fark anyway.


They didn't say that - they said it's impacts are LATER than Penrith, usually AFTER peak heat period.

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#1486417 - 23/01/2019 11:42 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
I know what they said, and having lived there for a substantial amount of time their points are somewhat of a red herring. We’re talking about a monthly average here gentlemen, not a single daily event. As such the close proximity between locations allows for the general 7C/1000m to hold quite nicely between the two. As we’re talking about a monthly average, it isn’t such an issue when making a comparison between the two locations even if on the odd day here and there Mt Boyce continues to heat a little longer than Penrith.

The beauty of understanding the power of statistics.

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#1486418 - 23/01/2019 11:44 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
From what I can see, in conditions like we've had this Summer, a weak general Northerly circulation, the seabreeze is up and running by 8:00 near the beach, reaches OH by about 10:00-10:30 and most of Sydney by around 12:00 - 14:00. It will eventually reach Penrith, often too late to affect the maximum there, and can eventually reach Mt Boyce. You often see a NE'er there around sunset and in the evening. Of course someone who lives in the Mountains would have a better feel for it.

The other important driver is Southerlies and their usual companion, marine layer cloud. These usually reach the Great Divide, near Yetholme West of Sydney, but generally penetrate no further. During these periods Sydney, including Penrith, is mild, overcast but with little or no rain. The Blue Mountains are cool, overcast, drizzly and often foggy, while Bathurst continues hot and sunny.


Edited by Steve777 (23/01/2019 11:46)

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#1486420 - 23/01/2019 12:08 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Spot on Steve777.

Before someone mentions it, yes I am aware Mt Boyce and Penrith are currently tracking less than 7C difference in maxima for the month. I think this can be attributed to the somewhat unusual way last weeks heatwave spared W Sydney a little compared with normal yet well and truly affected Mt Boyce. That said, even on the Thursday the 17/2/19, the hottest of the days in that region, the difference in maximums was 6.3C.

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#1486430 - 23/01/2019 13:29 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
Even on a lot of days where Penrith doesn't get the sea breeze, the 1 degree per 100m rule does not apply because the 850mb air often doesn't completely mix down to sea level.
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#1486434 - 23/01/2019 14:09 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
snowforus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/07/2012
Posts: 401
Loc: Lithgow 945m a.s.l. (Central T...
Heavy rain 2 cm hail. Temperature down to 18.
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#1486436 - 23/01/2019 14:12 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5506
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand

That said, even on the Thursday the 17/2/19, the hottest of the days in that region, the difference in maximums was 6.3C.



Lets see how good your prediction is? lol wink
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#1486447 - 23/01/2019 15:50 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: EddyG]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: Eigerwand

That said, even on the Thursday the 17/2/19, the hottest of the days in that region, the difference in maximums was 6.3C.



Lets see how good your prediction is? lol wink


Haha! Damn! Missed that one.

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#1486509 - 23/01/2019 21:46 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1282
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Got to 38C today, well above the forecast of 32C.
Average max for Jan, Maitland and Tocal at 34.5C.
Tocal, which has long term records, is on track for the hottest monthly max for Jan, and for any month. (currently it is December 1990, followed by Feb 2017)
Singleton running at 36C average max.
With an absolute ripper of an Australia Day Long weekend coming up, monthly records are likely to tumble

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#1486512 - 23/01/2019 22:39 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Yep, appears to be some pretty serious heat on the way again. Hay tipped for 48 on Friday and numerous 47’s getting around. Mid to high 30’s for the CT’s over the weekend which will bring those monthly averages higher still given there doesn’t appear to be any significant cool changes for the remainder of the month. Up on the NT’s, both Armidale and Glen Innes are forecat to be above 30 for the next week, surely that will lead to a demolition of the records up there too.

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#1486713 - 24/01/2019 21:10 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
lab276 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 02/11/2018
Posts: 19
With regards to min temps, the longest streak at OH of 20C+ nights is, I believe, 25 days in Feb-Mar 2016. There's a good chance it'll be smashed this year. We're already up to 17, plus the forecast to next Thursday doesn't go below 22C, which takes it up to 24, two off the record.

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#1486792 - 25/01/2019 08:41 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/01/forgott...comment-2097246

The paper articles are most interesting.
Also has links discussing temps as high as 50c at Windsor in Sydney.

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#1486825 - 25/01/2019 11:11 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: GringosRain]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
...Also has links discussing temps as high as 50c at Windsor in Sydney.

The site features an excerpt from the Northern Star newspaper (based in Lismore) from January 12, 1939. It quotes a number of high temperatures recorded in NSW including the following around Sydney:

122 (50.0) - Windsor
115 (46.1) - Richmond
112 (44.4) - Parramatta, Pennant Hills
107 (41.7) - Moss Vale - equivalent to about 113 (45) at sea level.
110 (43.3) - Penrith

In the rest of NSW, readings of 110 to 121 (43-49) are mentioned. Lower readings were recorded in the far West (cloud?). Most readings look credible.

Now the Sydney readings apart from Windsor also look credible insofar as they are similar to temps recorded in the Sydney area in the last decade.

Richmond and Windsor are about 7 km apart (5 km from the site of Windsor Observatory to the Richmond RAAF site). Windsor is a little closer to the sea. It seems unlikely that it would have peaked 7 deg F (4 C) warmer than Richmond on what would almost certainly have been a sunny day unaffected by sea breezes that far inland.

I don't believe the Richmond reading of 122.


Edited by Steve777 (25/01/2019 11:15)

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#1486836 - 25/01/2019 11:34 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2842
The Windsor 50 is prob not legit. But 50 was cracked elsewhere in NSW in the 1939 event. According to Blair Trewin there is only one instance of a reading of 50 recorded with standard equipment outside of the digitalised data. The 50 at Wilcannia in Jan 1939 would thus be the 3rd hottest on record for Australia. Coming just behind Mardie's 50.5 in Feb1998 and Oodnadatta's 50.7 in Jan 1960.
Recognised 50+ rare as hen's teeth.
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#1486849 - 25/01/2019 12:08 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
This Summer hasn't featured any particularly hot days in Sydney, unlike NSW/ACT inland areas, Adelaide and (today) Melbourne, but the heat and warmth has been consistent. Even the cloudy days like yesterday have been warm.

To choose a long-record station which might closely reflect what most people in Sydney experience, Parramatta (records since 1968 with one missing January) is tracking 20.2 to 31.1, for anomalies +2.6 and +2.6. Looking at the forecast, it is on track for 20.4 to 31.9, both eclipsing (by small margins) records set in 2017. This will have been 'achieved' with no 40+ maxima or 24+ minima if the forecast holds, just consistently warm nights and warm to hot days.

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