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#1486169 - 20/01/2019 21:38 NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Well here we are. 10 days until the end of what is shaping up to be one very significant month in terms of heat. After looking at the forecast for Katoomba for the coming week I went on to check the running monthly mean max for Mt Boyce. Currently 28.8C, 4.7C above the average for the site but 5.4C above Katoomba with a longer dataset, but this in combination with the temps over the coming forecast made my jaw drop. It would appear that Mt Boyce, at 1080m ASL, 33S and close enough to the coast to be considered to have a relatively maritime climate, may go on to record a mean monthly max of 30C+. I'm sure this would have never occurred since record keeping began in the region.

I then went on to have a look around the State and again, the current average maxima (minima aren't far behind) in combination with regional forecast is truly astounding. To give a bit of an idea, here are a few figures:

Orange AP, 32.4C +5.2C

Broken Hill AP, 38.9C +5.3C

Bourke, 42.3C +6C or + 5C on shorter data set

Hay AP, 39.4 +6.3C

Thredbo Top Station, 20.9C, +4.5C

Armidale AP, 31.9C, +5.8C

As you can see this is a State wide event and to a degree I think potentially puts this as one of the most significant weather events this century, more so depending where you fall on a certain topic. With that, I am not intending this to be a clandestine way to debate climate change. 20 years ago, even on the back of the great summer of 1997-98, had you told me Mt Boyce would AVERAGE a monthly maxima of 30C+ in 20 years time, I would have said that was crazy talk, yet here we are. I know where I stand on the issue, I'm not trying to convince anyone or wanting this to open up debate, merely hoping that people will share relevant temps and anomalies with respect to their regions of interest, mine obviously being the BM's and CT's.

It would be great if the big man (Blair) added now and then. His knowledge is always appreciated and has a way of settling things down should people become caught up in other issues.

As it looks like next week may also be another moderate heat event, feel free to treat this as a thread for that.

Cheers.

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#1486173 - 20/01/2019 22:39 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 792
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
Have to agree that inland areas in particular are going through an amazingly hot January so far. Models don't give a lot of hope for an offsetting cooler period either.

Here at 1260m January 2019 has been more like Mudgee was in the 1970s and 1980s. It also remains stubbornly dry -storms pass to our north and south, but little overhead. Today was yet another example. In the past we used to get regular SE wind changes. In recent years they have become rare. Now we pretty well rely on storms for summer rain.

Going by Bathurst Ag, the mean max so far this Jan is 34.3 degrees versus the record of 32.8 in 1929. Bathurst Gaol's hottest January was 1878 with a mean max of 35.1. So we're certainly experiencing a one in 150 year event.

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#1486180 - 20/01/2019 23:29 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1770
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Explain the Quidge and you explain the dry and heat. It has been basically the same shape for years through every season. Every now and then its basic shape contorts and is favourable for somewhere to get a quick spell of rain or cooler weather but it always comes back...

Meanwhile, Central Europe is buried in snow, accumulations exceeding 5 metres in some places in Austria and more on the way. Northern Hemisphere snow pack running well above average.

Quite an impressive event this heat, but records are being broken all the time for all sorts of things. Hot, cold, rain, rain rate, snow depth, wind speed....
The nature of records is to be broken. Unfortunately its our turn for dry and heat....and it may have plenty to go yet.

Watching some wet on the doorstep now though. Excellent for everyone under it!

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#1486190 - 21/01/2019 06:07 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Rob G]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Originally Posted By: Rob G
Have to agree that inland areas in particular are going through an amazingly hot January so far. Models don't give a lot of hope for an offsetting cooler period either.

Here at 1260m January 2019 has been more like Mudgee was in the 1970s and 1980s. It also remains stubbornly dry -storms pass to our north and south, but little overhead. Today was yet another example. In the past we used to get regular SE wind changes. In recent years they have become rare. Now we pretty well rely on storms for summer rain.

Going by Bathurst Ag, the mean max so far this Jan is 34.3 degrees versus the record of 32.8 in 1929. Bathurst Gaol's hottest January was 1878 with a mean max of 35.1. So we're certainly experiencing a one in 150 year event.


Exactly the type of post I was hoping to attract 🙂

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#1486191 - 21/01/2019 07:39 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Mcbobbings Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/06/2018
Posts: 134
Having been in the city it is hard to fathom the scale of this event. It has been much like the past 3 summers, hot. The scale of warmth seems to be similar to April 2018, with temps at long term sites going 4 or 5c above average. Hopefully we can get through this and get one of those winters the Northern Hemisphere seems to be getting, cold and rainy (low level snow would be nice)

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#1486196 - 21/01/2019 08:47 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Mcbobbings]
Jac0b Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/12/2018
Posts: 144
If we get a cold wet winter with similar temp anomalies to Dec 2011 or Feb 2008 that would be interesting.

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#1486199 - 21/01/2019 09:03 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: GringosRain]
Adaminaby Angler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 375
Loc: Anglers Reach NSW; 1,290 m AMS...
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Explain the Quidge and you explain the dry and heat. It has been basically the same shape for years through every season. Every now and then its basic shape contorts and is favourable for somewhere to get a quick spell of rain or cooler weather but it always comes back...

Meanwhile, Central Europe is buried in snow, accumulations exceeding 5 metres in some places in Austria and more on the way. Northern Hemisphere snow pack running well above average.

Quite an impressive event this heat, but records are being broken all the time for all sorts of things. Hot, cold, rain, rain rate, snow depth, wind speed....
The nature of records is to be broken. Unfortunately its our turn for dry and heat....and it may have plenty to go yet.

Watching some wet on the doorstep now though. Excellent for everyone under it!

^Strewth! Agreed 100%

cheers
_________________________
Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.

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#1486202 - 21/01/2019 09:21 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: GringosRain]
Jac0b Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/12/2018
Posts: 144
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Explain the Quidge and you explain the dry and heat. It has been basically the same shape for years through every season.


That quidge shape has also been giving us very warm July's especially since 2013 combined with very cold overnight lows due to no cloud cover, but strangely the past few Junes have been quite average.

When the quidge pattern eventually breaks temps may revert back to what it was like in the 80's and 90's. No one knows.

One thing to note is that Perth had some very warm years from 2010 - 2015, but since 2016 has been much cooler with cooler summers and winters there too with frontal activity much stronger. The current Perth forecast looks more like October with a 21 on Wednesday.

So perhaps the pattern might change soon.

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#1486203 - 21/01/2019 09:34 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Here's the view from the Sydney - average maxima January 1-20:

Richmond : 33.0 (+2.7)
Bankstown: 31.6 (+3.2)
Sydney OH: 28.8 (+2.3)

So Sydney maxima are tracking 2-3 degrees above average.

I expect that the story is similar in the Hunter. Basically anywhere out of reach of seabreezes and the marine layer is tracking about 5 - 6 degrees above average. That's a lot for a 20 day period.

Sea breezes keep most of the hot days to within a few degrees of average on the coastal strip, say within about 25 km of the beach. Also, in Sydney (and I expect most of the coast South of about Forster), 5 of the 20 days of January have had little or no sunshine and maxima average or below owing to marine layer cloud. This cloud is confined to the Eastern side of the Divide and sometimes doesn't reach that far.

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#1486206 - 21/01/2019 09:50 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7365
This is a very interesting discussion about the changes in weather from.different places. I also remember Perth being very hot and dry for a few summers, there was one February where no rain at all was recorded or at least an extremely small amount.

And great opening post by Eigerwand.
Those figures are also pretty astounding. Well here we're tracking 1.0C above average at 27.9C which is nothing too noteworthy, but minimums are tracking 2.6 above at 19.5C. We have been consistently warm (and humid) this January but there have been no major hot days to skew the daytime average upwards. There would have been warmer Januaries here for sure. The coast usually doesn't get impacted by these long duration heat events because the winds aren't strong enough. The higest max this January has only been 34.3C which is coolest top maximum since Jan 2014.


Edited by Wave Rider (21/01/2019 09:55)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1486207 - 21/01/2019 09:57 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 3505
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
This is a very interesting discussion about the changes in weather from.different places. I also remember Perth being very hot and dry for a few summers, there was one February where no rain at all was recorded or at least an extremely small amount.

And great opening post by Eigerwand.
Those figures are also pretty astounding. Well here we're tracking 1.0C above average at 27.9C which is nothing too noteworthy, but minimums are tracking 2.6 above at 19.5C. We have been consistently warm (and humid) this January but there have been no major hot days to skew the daytime average upwards. There would have been warmer Januaries here for sure. The coast usually doesn't get impacted by these long duration heat events because the winds aren't strong enough. The higest max this January has only been 34.3C which is coolest top maximum since Jan 2014.


Even less here, barely above average (+0.4) the Seabreeze has kept it very humid but way cooler.

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#1486222 - 21/01/2019 11:38 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3983
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Far too many numbers to stick in a single post, but suffice it to say that factoring this week's forecast, unless something dramatic happens at the end of the month it's on track to be the hottest January on record almost everywhere in NSW except some parts of the coastal fringe and the far southwest.

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#1486253 - 21/01/2019 16:39 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Wave Rider]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
This is a very interesting discussion about the changes in weather from.different places. I also remember Perth being very hot and dry for a few summers, there was one February where no rain at all was recorded or at least an extremely small amount.

And great opening post by Eigerwand.
Those figures are also pretty astounding. Well here we're tracking 1.0C above average at 27.9C which is nothing too noteworthy, but minimums are tracking 2.6 above at 19.5C. We have been consistently warm (and humid) this January but there have been no major hot days to skew the daytime average upwards. There would have been warmer Januaries here for sure. The coast usually doesn't get impacted by these long duration heat events because the winds aren't strong enough. The higest max this January has only been 34.3C which is coolest top maximum since Jan 2014.


Cheers man. I honestly wish it werent so. Nevertheless, it will indeed make for some interesting numbers to crunch and some interesting weather to dissect.

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#1486255 - 21/01/2019 17:19 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Steve777 Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 5027
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
NAEFS is showing a distinct warm signal for next week, the end of January and start of February. That usually gives a fairly good indication of future temperatures. See NAEFS Jan 29 - Feb 5

Taking Richmond as an example, going by the forecast, the average January min and max by the end of the forecast period (January 28) will be 20.8 to 33.7, for anomalies of +3.1 and +3.4. This compares to the records for the current station of 20.0 and 34.2.

Assuming that the last 3 days of January are average, the end result will be 20.5 - 33.3, so a new record average minimum and an average maximum a bit below the 95th percentile (so about once in 15-20 years).

Sydney OH might crack its record average January minimum (21.6) but looks like finishing around 28.7 (+2.2) for the average max, compared to its record of 29.6.


Edited by Steve777 (21/01/2019 17:24)
Edit Reason: link

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#1486322 - 22/01/2019 16:25 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
DVC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/11/2011
Posts: 415
Loc: Goulburn NSW
Am apprehensive of yet another week of 35+. but just noticed our forecast downgraded from 39/38/39 to 33/30/37, even a "severe/heavy falls" insert for tomorrow. Things jumping around a bitfor here!

Also was wondering whether the approaching monsoon will impact the potential heat reservoirs up north and north west for this event?
_________________________
DVC

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#1486323 - 22/01/2019 16:28 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
DVC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/11/2011
Posts: 415
Loc: Goulburn NSW
... and btw, Goulburn airport figures are running at 16.1 (12.7 Jan av) and 31.5 (28.0) - the magic 3.4/3.5 anomaly!
_________________________
DVC

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#1486328 - 22/01/2019 17:07 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Nick Sykes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2001
Posts: 685
Loc: Franklin, ACT
38.4C in Canberra today, Jan av now sitting on 34.3C, a whopping 6 above average with heat forecast to continue except for slight reprieve on Thurs when the temp will be around 30.

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#1486332 - 22/01/2019 17:37 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 906
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Thats is crazy!

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#1486370 - 22/01/2019 22:18 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Eigerwand]
Morham Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 149
Loc: Penrith, NSW
You will all not be shocked to hear Penrith is above average again.

Max is about 5 degrees above average. Min is 2 above average.

Average max this month of 35.1! Todays heat was a real stinger. The feels like temp was high 30s due to the humidity.

The last 3 years have had really supercharged summers in these parts. The averages recorded since 1990 look almost unreal, hard to believe Penrith has a long term Jan max average of 30. That is decidedly comfortable compared to the last few years.

Life is just evolving to sit inside in front of an air conditioner for a month every year now.

Also, the new eastern creek airport and planned surrounding aerotropilis suburb with more concrete structures wont do western sydneys climate any favours i'm sure.

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#1486374 - 22/01/2019 22:34 Re: NSW January 2019 Heat Extravaganza [Re: Morham]
Eigerwand Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/05/2012
Posts: 526
Originally Posted By: Morham
You will all not be shocked to hear Penrith is above average again.

Max is about 5 degrees above average. Min is 2 above average.

Average max this month of 35.1! Todays heat was a real stinger. The feels like temp was high 30s due to the humidity.

The last 3 years have had really supercharged summers in these parts. The averages recorded since 1990 look almost unreal, hard to believe Penrith has a long term Jan max average of 30. That is decidedly comfortable compared to the last few years.

Life is just evolving to sit inside in front of an air conditioner for a month every year now.

Also, the new eastern creek airport and planned surrounding aerotropilis suburb with more concrete structures wont do western sydneys climate any favours i'm sure.



I know, 35C definitely appears to be the new 30C. You can imagine my horror that prompted me to start this thread upon seeing that Mt Boyce, a solid 1000ms higher than Penrith, is within a shot of recording a 30C avg max for the month. And of course there isnt even the urbanisation factor to blame it on as may partly be the case for Penrith.

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