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#1486691 - 24/01/2019 20:03 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: Petros]
SEAN888 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/09/2007
Posts: 1074
Loc: Mel
Originally Posted By: Petros
Unremarkable day out this way, a sunny 32C with seabreeze arriving around lunchtime.

...but the electrical system SA/Vic/NSW has been in chaos for several hours. Market intervention pricing now invoked for all three states, meaning that all available generators, despite being mandated ("directed") to generate at full load, will only be paid the average of the (normal) prices in place this time over the past 2 weeks. Means peaking plants (expensive fuel costs), and hydro schemes ("wasting" water reserves allocated for high price events) - all getting a canning financially, despite saving us from the lack of wind and currently declining solar generation presently underway.

If you were say, a hydro electric dam operator, with say, 100 hours of water available to generate to support the electrical system in these typical summer peak periods, only to find you've HAD to let your water go for low electrical price returns (circa $100/MWHr instead of the "advertised" $14,500/MWHr technically now on offer). After this haircut, wouldnt you be motivated to tell AEMO that there is a breakdown happened tonight, and the generator is not available for operation tomorrow (when we will really really need that power) - so save themselves from taking another financial haircut. The system is broken, flooded by unreliable renewable energy "generators", paid by our taxes, only to create blackouts!


And what's the answer? Coal, I presume? If we can capture the emissions, fine. But there's no use fixing a problem with the actual problem.

We are having above average, record-breaking summers year after year. This month will be the hottest month in recorded history but it's not surprising given that this is a concurrent trend, one which is wreaking havoc across this nation.

Hopefully this ecological disaster of a month ends tomorrow afternoon. BOM forecasting a top of 44 now, which is in line with what some models have been suggesting for over a week.

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#1486697 - 24/01/2019 20:33 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: chasers addict]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Sean, the "actual problem" ....that is causing chaos in the SA/Vic/NSW electrical system, is due to too much CO2 in the atmosphere?

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#1486710 - 24/01/2019 21:01 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: chasers addict]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1396
Loc: Adelaide S.A/Portland Vic
Any transition must ensure a stable network which can provide reliable power including at peak demand. People from all sides need to understand that Australia has massive demand spikes on hot days, far more than Europe or America meaning there must be massive surplus capacity in the network - something which is far easier with coal and the likes than wind or solar.

If the urgency to stop using coal is as much as experts say then we must atleast consider alternatives like nuclear.

Anyway back to the weather.....
_________________________
Located in Adelaide or Portland Vic smile

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#1486720 - 24/01/2019 21:23 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: chasers addict]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Emergency situation right now, SA has no battery input (all cashed in for $$ hours before, ...not held in reserve for a full lights off scenario), zero solar input, and only 100MW (way less than 5% of the installed propeller generation we all paid for in our taxes). SA is reliant right now on 430MW of generation from Vic to keep the lights on.

BUT Vic, itself, is reliant on 600MW imported from NSW(coal)/Tas(hydro), hence circa 150MW to keep our own lights on, as we pass this power to SA.

....all this with no bushfires under the vital state-state power lines. God help us if fires are added into the (the already basket case) equation for the power system in SE Aus tomorrow.


Edited by Petros (24/01/2019 21:24)

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#1486721 - 24/01/2019 21:23 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: chasers addict]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1519
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Big day of weather/heat Tommoz. Obviously
Going to be a trying day for everybody especially
Emergency services.
Stay safe everyone and hopefully we get through
Without any major fires ect happening!
Obviously big chance to see plenty of
Towns/cities breaking temp records Tommoz

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#1486722 - 24/01/2019 21:24 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: chasers addict]
Tom Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/06/2004
Posts: 75
Loc: Elwood, Victoria
Yes, back to the weather, please :-)

So, how hot could it get tomorrow in Vic? In Melbourne?

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#1486723 - 24/01/2019 21:28 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Petros
Emergency situation right now, SA has no battery input (all cashed in for $$ hours before, ...not held in reserve for a full lights off scenario), zero solar input, and only 100MW (way less than 5% of the installed propeller generation we all paid for in our taxes). SA is reliant right now on 430MW of generation from Vic to keep the lights on.

BUT Vic, itself, is reliant on 600MW imported from NSW(coal)/Tas(hydro), hence circa 150MW to keep our own lights on, as we pass this power to SA.

....all this with no bushfires under the vital state-state power lines. God help us if fires are added into the (the already basket case) equation for the power system in SE Aus tomorrow.



Re SA battery, I should correct this and say the tradeable portion (30% of the battery has been depleted to make $$, ..there is still 70 MW (for only one hour - against a SA state load of 2,862 MW per hour, for many hours tonight) left in reserve to wave a limp feather at an event such as the trip of the Victorian tie line (currently supporting SA with 310MW sustainable power)

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#1486724 - 24/01/2019 21:31 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: chasers addict]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17662
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Petros not sure where you have your info from, but our Diesel generators were actually turned on late today to prevent Victoria from suffering massive blackouts. SA are currently supporting VIC not the other way around.

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#1486727 - 24/01/2019 21:53 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: chasers addict]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17662
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
in fact sounds like both states are relying a fair bit on Tassie atm.

Quote:
South Australia's fleet of diesel generators were fired up for the first time, amid tight power supplies here and in Victoria.

The State Government was directed by the Australian Energy Market Operator to make the move about 5.30pm, on the grounds that the generators were required to prop up Victoria.

At the time, SA was meeting its own energy demand of 2985M from local supplies including wind and gas power and exporting a small amount into Victoria. Victoria had a significant shortfall from local generation, and was calling on significant supplies from Tasmania and NSW.

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#1486730 - 24/01/2019 22:08 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: chasers addict]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Teckert, my post #....23 was fully correct at the time posted. My data from NEOMobile, but is verifiable (and comes from) AEMO. Look at AEMO website to verify.

I did hear your emergency generators were dispatched this arvo, ....to "save Victoria", that message emanated from ABC news ("cant let a renewables story go bad").

Lets wait for the inevitable AEMO report in months to come to see why the direction was made, .....(because tomorrows turmoil will create the Armageddon of report overload).


SA generators "saving us or not" .....the lights went out in Vic this evening due to AEMO directed load shedding request to Ausnet.

So much for the value of $$$$$$ Vic's Govt has invested in renewables to save us all from ........what?:



Edited by Petros (24/01/2019 22:10)

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#1486731 - 24/01/2019 22:13 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: chasers addict]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17662
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
yep you will struggle tomorrow, hopefully with it being cooler here the demand wont be as bad, and I'm aware of the load shedding issues. Thankfully we dont have those issues here anymore.
My point was correcting the bit about VIC supporting SA - which wasn't correct.

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#1486732 - 24/01/2019 22:17 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: teckert]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: teckert
yep you will struggle tomorrow, hopefully with it being cooler here the demand wont be as bad, and I'm aware of the load shedding issues. Thankfully we dont have those issues here anymore.
My point was correcting the bit about VIC supporting SA - which wasn't correct.


You have "those issues" there in SA worse than Vic Teckert, you will get a couple of repeat doses of the power issues you experienced before last years mild summer (in electrical load terms). A fire under the SA interconnector on a very hot day and your black. Get to March, then breathe a sigh of relief imo.

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#1486733 - 24/01/2019 22:19 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: chasers addict]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
....and at the time of my post #..20, I WAS correct, Vic was sending power to SA as I posted. Go check Teckert.

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#1486734 - 24/01/2019 22:20 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: chasers addict]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2157
Loc: Sale, VIC
45C for Sale tomorrow P, might have to turn on the A/C for one of its rare runs.

Better get than ride in early, 41C by 1100hrs eek

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#1486737 - 24/01/2019 22:22 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: chasers addict]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Australia cope how run power management from all states and this is really good test.

Heatwave for population using Solar Panels. I think its not doing anything becasue A/C use more power sucking as no power return to the grid.

Hope no fires tomorrow.

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#1486739 - 24/01/2019 22:25 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Will be into it at 7am Samboz, thanks for the heads up.

Heyfield copped a share of this evenings electrical load shedding, so freeze some ice etc. for tomorrow, might be our turn for power off!

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#1486740 - 24/01/2019 22:30 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: chasers addict]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2835
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...

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#1486741 - 24/01/2019 22:33 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: chasers addict]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I'd advise you to get your electricity data from the AEMO website CA.

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#1486743 - 24/01/2019 22:37 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: chasers addict]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2157
Loc: Sale, VIC
Agree, 7AM is the way to go !

Have a solar powered 73L refrig/freezer in ute P, very handy with 100W panel on canopy roof.

Could leave and forget for a month++ and it would be fine (particularly in summer light conditions). smile



Edited by samboz (24/01/2019 22:39)

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#1486745 - 24/01/2019 22:45 Re: Vic - Repeat Heatwave 22/01/19 - 26/01/19 [Re: chasers addict]
Spectreman Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/09/2018
Posts: 6
Loc: Melbourne
43 Deg for Mt Dandenong tomorrow which is a bit above average for up there for sure, with plenty of Northerly wind. Hope we get through with no fires there tomorrow, I am on the late shift too....

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