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#1486609 - 24/01/2019 15:33 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Bergasms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 378
Loc: South Plympton, Adelaide, Aus
There is an update war happening on the Adelaide wikipedia page as people try to update the max temp haha
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I wish Mt Lofty was more lofty, another 2km or so would suffice.

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#1486610 - 24/01/2019 15:39 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Thunderstruck]
*jr* Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/01/2011
Posts: 115
Every live station in the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Zone reporting ATH's

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#1486611 - 24/01/2019 15:47 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7189
Old Kent Town is up to 47.6!! So lets call that 48 for Adelaide, crazy stuff.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1486612 - 24/01/2019 15:54 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8751
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Still pretty early in the day, 50C in reach now for Adel.

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#1486613 - 24/01/2019 15:56 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Thunderstruck]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 600
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Pt Augusta now leading the charge 49.1

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#1486616 - 24/01/2019 16:11 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17642
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Bergasms, my point is the fact that in SA, most of the heat records have gone un-broken for 80 years. Based on that, there's nothing that I can see to suggest that it couldnt be another 80 yrs before its broken again. Yes, it might be broken next year, but then it might be another 80 yrs before thats broken.

Meanwhile we should see another WT max on the next update.... really wanting to break 46.4 which is Melb's record and is the highest for a capital city in Aust.

edit: 46.6!


Edited by teckert (24/01/2019 16:13)

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#1486618 - 24/01/2019 16:16 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Pooraka Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/02/2006
Posts: 154
Loc: Pooraka, Adelaide, South Austr...
46.6 3:36PM


Edited by Pooraka (24/01/2019 16:16)

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#1486619 - 24/01/2019 16:19 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Tom Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/06/2004
Posts: 75
Loc: Elwood, Victoria
Back in the late 80s I worked at DTSO over the summers. Catching a non-air conditioned train up to Parafield from Adelaide, sitting in a non-air conditioned lab all day, then catching a non-air conditioned train back to Adelaide. We had a few hot days. Nothing like this, thankfully - I can't imagine what it would be like having to do that on a day like today.

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#1486621 - 24/01/2019 16:20 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Thunderstruck]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 455
Loc: Hobart
Adelaide retakes the crown from Melbourne for official highest temperature recorded in a capital city..

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#1486629 - 24/01/2019 16:37 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: teckert]
Bergasms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 378
Loc: South Plympton, Adelaide, Aus
Originally Posted By: teckert
Bergasms, my point is the fact that in SA, most of the heat records have gone un-broken for 80 years. Based on that, there's nothing that I can see to suggest that it couldnt be another 80 yrs before its broken again. Yes, it might be broken next year, but then it might be another 80 yrs before thats broken.
.

But there is something you can see, which is the frequency of events changing.
I mean, I agree with you in principle that it could be 80 years, it could also never be broken, but if I was putting money on it, I would be looking at the frequency of change of events.

The change says that more records are being broken recently and the pace of record breaking is increasing, so the odds are better that a record will fall than a record will stand. It's just probability and stats \_(ツ)_/ .

Who knows, If we were having this conversation about Port Augusta breaking its record temperature on the 15th of Jan, well, we'd already be wrong.
_________________________
I wish Mt Lofty was more lofty, another 2km or so would suffice.

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#1486632 - 24/01/2019 16:40 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17642
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
but records have not been broken here more frequently.... can you give me some stats on SA records that substantiate that?
What I think you will find is that most recent records are from AWS stations that have only been open for less than 20 years or so.... so of course they will break their records more frequently. You need to look at these stats a bit more and not just jump on the bandwagon.

ie. Port Augusta... open for less than 20 years. Of course they are going to break records. If they were open in 1939, maybe today they may have broken it.

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#1486638 - 24/01/2019 16:56 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3907
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
I think you'd have to assume they would have done, given that Snowtown, Port Lincoln and Tarcoola have all surpassed their 1939 numbers comfortably.

This time 10 years ago, the bulk of high temperature records in Victoria, NSW and the settled areas of SA were from 1939, but those have been gradually whittled away; most of those in Victoria were broken in 2009, in the northern half of NSW in either 2013, 2014 or 2017, and in most of SA today. I suspect by the time we get to the end of tomorrow the only substantial area with surviving 1939 records will be parts of the inland southeast quarter of NSW (e.g. Wagga, Canberra, Bathurst, Richmond).

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#1486639 - 24/01/2019 16:57 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Thunderstruck]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 600
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Pt Augusta now 49.5....come on, you can do it

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#1486641 - 24/01/2019 16:58 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Blair Trewin]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17642
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
I think you'd have to assume they would have done, given that Snowtown, Port Lincoln and Tarcoola have all surpassed their 1939 numbers comfortably.

This time 10 years ago, the bulk of high temperature records in Victoria, NSW and the settled areas of SA were from 1939, but those have been gradually whittled away; most of those in Victoria were broken in 2009, in the northern half of NSW in either 2013, 2014 or 2017, and in most of SA today. I suspect by the time we get to the end of tomorrow the only substantial area with surviving 1939 records will be parts of the inland southeast quarter of NSW (e.g. Wagga, Canberra, Bathurst, Richmond).


Yep thats my point thanks Blair. A good 80 years its taken, and wouldve as well for most AWS's if they were around back then.

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#1486642 - 24/01/2019 16:59 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Bergasms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 378
Loc: South Plympton, Adelaide, Aus
I linked my source in my original post.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL065793#grl53430-sec-0005-title .

Once again, I don't know if that is a reputable source, but it also covers exactly what you have mentioned with regards to the age of the weather station and the period in which data has been collected.

"You need to look at these stats a bit more and not just jump on the bandwagon.". I literally linked a paper with actual stats in it. Of course, they are for Australia as a whole, so they might not be as pertinent to SA. And being at work I haven't been able to check the sources they cite. If it's wrong, I'm happy to cop that.
_________________________
I wish Mt Lofty was more lofty, another 2km or so would suffice.

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#1486643 - 24/01/2019 17:04 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Thunderstruck]
*jr* Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/01/2011
Posts: 115
Pt Augusta now 49.5....come on, you can do it

>anything 49.5 or over puts the day into the top 10 max national


Edited by *jr* (24/01/2019 17:05)

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#1486644 - 24/01/2019 17:08 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3907
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
The paper linked is indeed reputable, but it's looking at record monthly state/national averages, not site records on individual days. I wrote a paper on site records in 2010 but obviously it doesn't include recent data (although updates of some of its analyses have been included in some subsequent Bureau State of the Climate reports):

http://www.bom.gov.au/jshess/docs/2010/trewin_hres.pdf

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#1486648 - 24/01/2019 17:10 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Blair Trewin]
Bergasms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 378
Loc: South Plympton, Adelaide, Aus
Thanks for linking that, it looks interesting.

So in your opinion is the conclusion i've drawn from that paper (That if you were betting, the odds of a record being broken again sooner rather than later is more likely than it not being broken) a good one or have i misunderstood the paper?
_________________________
I wish Mt Lofty was more lofty, another 2km or so would suffice.

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#1486650 - 24/01/2019 17:24 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17642
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
the odds of a younger AWS breaking a record sooner rather than later is better than an older AWS doing it.

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#1486655 - 24/01/2019 17:53 Re: SA Heatwave Jan 22nd-25th [Re: Thunderstruck]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3907
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Obviously. For the 2010 paper we restricted it to sites which had complete or near-complete data for the 1957-2009 period.

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