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#1486367 - 22/01/2019 21:50 Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
May as well kick this tread off:

IDW24100

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 2:52 pm WST on Tuesday 22 January 2019
Headline:
Cyclone Watch declared for the northwest Kimberley coast for a developing tropical low.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Kuri Bay to Beagle Bay.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm AWST :
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 110 kilometres of 11.3 degrees South 125.9 degrees East, estimated to be 345 kilometres north northwest of Kalumburu and 490 kilometres north northeast of Kuri Bay.

Movement: southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.

The low is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone during Thursday. Conditions are favourable for intensification as it continues to move southwest over water later in the week, parallel to the coast. If the system tracks closer to the coast, gales may develop along the northwest Kimberley coast.

Hazards:
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are not expected to develop between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay, excluding Derby, for the remainder of Tuesday and Wednesday but may develop during Thursday afternoon if the system moves closer to the coast.

Squally thunderstorms are expected. Locally heavy rainfall is possible.

Recommended Action:
DFES-State Emergency Service (SES) advises that there are no community alerts at present. People in the Pilbara and Kimberley are advised to stay up to date with weather forecasts and warnings.

People between Kuri Bay and Beagle Bay should listen for the next advice.

People needing DFES assistance can call 132 500. In a life threatening situation call 000. For more safety tips visit www.dfes.wa.gov.au.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Tuesday 22 January.
Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)


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#1486419 - 23/01/2019 11:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: Weathergrrl]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
3am 23/1/19


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#1486421 - 23/01/2019 12:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: Weathergrrl]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
9am BOM public tracking map


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#1486425 - 23/01/2019 12:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: Weathergrrl]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 235
Loc: Andergrove QLD
94s at 0030UT today from Himawari 8 via Himawaricast off relay satellite Jcsat2B. Received by me. B5 - 1610nm mapped to red, B4 - 860nm mapped to green, Vis - 644nm mapped to blue. Colour adjustments in Photoshop. 1km per pixel resolution.


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#1486459 - 23/01/2019 17:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: Weathergrrl]
batty Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/12/2010
Posts: 481
Loc: Finch Hatton Gorge
Looks like,dough on the rise,great shot!
_________________________
Mud is Just Wet Dust

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#1486465 - 23/01/2019 18:05 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: Learjet]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
Hopefully that monsoon keeps feeding our little low! Super pic Learjet

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#1486469 - 23/01/2019 18:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: Weathergrrl]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
Latest public BOM track map

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#1486476 - 23/01/2019 19:00 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: Weathergrrl]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
Thanks for posting that meteye overlay Weathertgrl' . That was very interesting. Do you know what model meteye uses?

Fabulous picture 'learjet' , we are all very privileged.
-----
ACCESS G has the TC running down the coast toward Karratha but has not landfall . Instead take a more westerly track on ~late sunday 27th jan.
Access suggests the coastal regions are likely to feel some increased wind speed as the more severe outer closed isobars graze the coast.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1486492 - 23/01/2019 20:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: crikey]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
Hey Crikey, I believe the MetEye is mostly the ACCESS model. So all the international models collated and interperated and blended by the BOMís meteorologists/systems. Itís pretty cool for a free tool I think as it lets you customise what you are looking for better than the interactive version

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/

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#1486495 - 23/01/2019 20:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: Weathergrrl]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0724 UTC 23/01/2019
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.5S
Longitude: 123.3E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [231 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [21 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 23/1200: 14.9S 122.7E: 040 [080]: 030 [055]: 1000
+12: 23/1800: 15.3S 122.0E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 999
+18: 24/0000: 15.6S 121.2E: 065 [125]: 035 [065]: 997 040 [075]: 994
+36: 24/1800: 16.1S 119.5E: 100 [185]: 045 [085]: 990
+48: 25/0600: 16.7S 118.5E: 120 [220]: 050 [095]: 987
+60: 25/1800: 17.2S 117.3E: 140 [255]: 060 [110]: 980
+72: 26/0600: 17.7S 116.1E: 155 [290]:
+24: 24/0600: 15.8S 120.5E: 080 [145]: 040 [075]: 994
+36: 24/1800: 16.1S 119.5E: 100 [185]: 045 [085]: 990
+48: 25/0600: 16.7S 118.5E: 120 [220]: 050 [095]: 987
+60: 25/1800: 17.2S 117.3E: 140 [255]: 060 [110]: 980
+72: 26/0600: 17.7S 116.1E: 155 [290]: 065 [120]: 976
+96: 27/0600: 18.7S 113.2E: 200 [370]: 065 [120]: 974
+120: 28/0600: 19.8S 109.8E: 290 [535]: 055 [100]: 982
REMARKS:
Position is fair, based on Browse and Adele Island AWS observations and
radar/satellite animation. The area of cold cloud has decreased near the system
centre during the past 6 hours, during the diurnal convective minimum. The LLCC
remains obscured by thin high cloud.

Dvorak analysis at 0600UTC: no significant cloud bands were identifiable, so DT
was based on the adjusted MET [T2.0]. Adele Island AWS, to the south of the
system centre, has reported sustained 20-25 kt winds during the last hour.
Intensity set at 25kt. Objective aids are not yet available.

12U is positioned near the upper level ridge. Outflow is predominantly to the
south but there is a weaker outflow channel also to the north. CIMSS wind shear
at 00UTC indicated low 10-15kt wind shear over the system. 12U is surrounded by
deep moisture and SSTs are around 29C.

The forecast track is to the SW, north of and parallel to the WA coastline,
guided by a mid-level ridge over southern Australia. NWP is in good agreement
with this movement.

Intensity is based on a standard development trend for the next 12-24 hours,
with TC intensity forecast for 00Z Thursday. A strong 25-35 knot monsoonal surge
moving through the Indonesian archipelego is expected to feed into the system
tonight. The surge combined with a forecast dual outflow pattern suggests
intensification could be slightly faster in the 24-48 hour period. Peak
intensity of 65 knots is forecast from 00Z Saturday 26th. Increasing vertical
wind shear combined with dry air around the western and northern sectors is
forecast to prevent further intensification from Suinday, and the TC is forecast
to begin weakening over colder waters from Monday 28 January.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

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#1486516 - 23/01/2019 23:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: Weathergrrl]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 235
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Last visible image for the day at 0850. Will see what tomorrow brings.


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#1486550 - 24/01/2019 10:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: Weathergrrl]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 235
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Here's Riley, category 1. Received at 2300UT.


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#1486568 - 24/01/2019 12:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: Weathergrrl]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
And TC Riley is born.
I swear if this was an east coast system this thread would be blowing up, but no, we so chill over here.

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0122 UTC 24/01/2019
Name: Tropical Cyclone Riley
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.9S
Longitude: 120.8E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [237 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [170 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [170 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 24/0600: 17.2S 119.8E: 025 [050]: 045 [085]: 989
+12: 24/1200: 17.3S 119.3E: 040 [070]: 050 [095]: 985
+18: 24/1800: 17.3S 118.8E: 050 [095]: 055 [100]: 981
+24: 25/0000: 17.4S 118.4E: 065 [120]: 060 [110]: 978
+36: 25/1200: 17.5S 117.5E: 085 [155]: 065 [120]: 974
+48: 26/0000: 18.0S 116.5E: 105 [190]: 070 [130]: 970
+60: 26/1200: 18.4S 115.3E: 120 [225]: 070 [130]: 968
+72: 27/0000: 18.8S 113.5E: 140 [265]: 060 [110]: 978
+96: 28/0000: 19.2S 109.6E: 185 [345]: 040 [075]: 991
+120: 29/0000: 20.4S 106.9E: 275 [505]: 040 [075]: 990
REMARKS:
Position is good based on radar/satellite animation. Deep convection has
persisted around the system centre overnight and early morning.

Dvorak analysis at 0000 UTC: curvature has become more defined with convective
cloud bands on the western and southern side giving a wrap of 0.7 leading to a
DT of 3.0. MET is 3.0 based on a D trend and PAT is 3.0. FT based on DT/PAT.
Current Intensity is 40 knots [10 min mean winds].

Recent movement has been towards the west southwest, away from the west
Kimberley coast under the influence of a subtropical ridge over SE Australia.
The forecast track is generally west southwest as this ridge strengthens and a
trough passes over southern WA, then parallels the Pilbara coast during Friday
and Saturday. NWP is in good agreement with this movement. A more southerly
track which may take the system closer to the WA Pilbara coast on Saturday
remains a slight chance.

Riley is positioned near the upper level ridge with diffluent outflow
equatorward and poleward. CIMSS wind shear at 1800 UTC remains low, around 10-15
knots. The system is surrounded by deep moisture and SSTs are around 29/30C.

The intensity forecast is slightly stronger than the standard development rate.
A monsoonal surge combined with dual outflow pattern suggests that rapid
intensification could occur in the next 24 to 36 hours. Peak intensity of 70
knots is forecast during Saturday 26th. Increasing vertical wind shear resulting
from the upper ridge moving south away from the system combined with dry air
around the western and northern sectors is forecast to prevent further
intensification from late Saturday or early Sunday. The shear may increase as
early as late Friday which could inhibit intensification. Riley is forecast to
begin weakening over cooler waters from Sunday 27 January and increasing shear.
A mid-level ridge to the southwest of WA later in the weekend and early next
week is expected to maintain a west southwest track in the longer term.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0730 UTC by Perth TCWC.


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#1486569 - 24/01/2019 12:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: Learjet]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 268
Loc: Karratha, WA
[quote=Learjet]Here's Riley, category 1. Received at 2300UT.

Such great pics! Starting to look a little more organised now, cant wait to see his structure pull together. We just want some rain on the way past please. Look at him pulling all that moisture down from Indo.

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#1486570 - 24/01/2019 12:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: Weathergrrl]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7816
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Off to the fishies. Cya Riley.

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#1486652 - 24/01/2019 17:41 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: Weathergrrl]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 76
Loc: Jingili Darwin
I have got to agree with you on the level of interest weathergrrl.The low in the GOC doesn't seem to be generating any interest either.Me thinks it's a NIMBY scene.

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#1486698 - 24/01/2019 20:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: Weathergrrl]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
I think some people just like to read and watch. Maybe mmm 's ( meteorlogical motor mouths) are out of vogue.
Also the TC's are in remote areas and no forecast tracking into metropolis areas yet.
I was trying to find Riley on the radar .
The best l could do was Broome radar 512km. Some signs of rotation NE of Rowley shoals
5.14pm obs
995.4hpa
southerly from 3.45pm
range 44-52km/hr
gusts 61-74km/hr
Pretty much the core is just N / west of Broome.
Gee very close to the coast.

As MEGA has inferred . ACCESS agress he will head out to sea and is out of harms way by sunday arvo
Hope you get some rain

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View



Edited by crikey (24/01/2019 20:38)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

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#1486751 - 24/01/2019 23:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: Weathergrrl]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 235
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Cyclone Riley from 4am this morning. Himawaricast from Jcsat2B. IR band at 10.4um.


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#1486753 - 24/01/2019 23:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: Weathergrrl]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 168
Loc: Karratha, WA
Dampier radar has been out for 300+ hours. The work experience kid needs to step aside.

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#1486759 - 24/01/2019 23:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Riley (11S) - Indian Ocean - January 2019 [Re: Weathergrrl]
Learjet Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2009
Posts: 235
Loc: Andergrove QLD
Don't ya hate it when the radar is broke and there's a cyclone...

Himawaricast image from 0800UT.


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