Page 3 of 9 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >
Topic Options
#1489875 - 10/02/2019 13:39 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Ahab]
james1977 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2009
Posts: 2946
Loc: collingwood park


Originally Posted By: Ahab
Not looking good. The showers from last week were enough to keep the grass green but did nothing to creeks and groundwater. I heard before the term "green drought". Think this would apply here.


Green drought?? Really?? Itís only green along my garden beds from watering the plants. The rest of the yard is dead as and is like walking on a wire brush
_________________________
I hate winter

Top
#1489876 - 10/02/2019 13:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: gleno71]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10632
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I haven't been looking at the charts. Looks like a southerly is moving thru today? Yet the forecast temps are still rather high.

What changed in the forecast with the storms? Tomorrow was meant to be a very good day from what South Brisbane storms posted a few days back . Now nothing ?
Looking at the models, the Bureau's forecasts look pretty on the mark for what to expect today and tomorrow. Basically, higher chances in northern SEQLD (more-or-less the Wide Bay / Burnett region). Lower chances in the southern half of SEQLD, and if storms do form they'll more likely favour places nearer to the ranges.
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/wide-bay-and-burnett.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/southeast-coast.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/darling-downs-and-granite-belt.shtml
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
April 2019 Rainfall: 161.4mm (April Avg. 169.3mm) // April 2019 Raindays: 19 (April Avg. 12.9 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 422.0mm (Jan-Apr Avg. 666.4mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 57 (Jan-Apr Avg. 55.6 raindays)

Top
#1489878 - 10/02/2019 14:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: mammatus meestrus]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7823
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: mammatus meestrus
I'd much rather see a strong high with a deep mean easterly flow driving stream showers onto the coast(typical Feb) then this pseudo-spring storm pattern.

I see very little moisture flow into these troughs and hence, a repeat if anything of last nights storm where about 50 heavy drops fell and it barely registered in the gauge.

Whats was noteworthy about last weeks pattern was the paltry incursion of the showers south of the border.
Normally reliable high summer rainfall locations like Cape Byron barely broke 10mm over the week, Ballina didn't make 5mm.

Thats the second strong MJO phase, and in this case monster monsoonal surge that has resulted in a total failure of the normal summer moisture incursion into the sub-tropics.

I see no break in that pattern. Worse, if anything.


I thought there was a glimmer of hope a few weeks ago but yeah, nothing came of it for the southern half of the country. There also seems to be this common misconception around here that the Tasman Sea high automatically equates to dry 'boring' weather which is not always true. Oswald consisted of two double-highs over NZ which fed into an inland trough over inland QLD. Jan 1974 also consisted of very dry, anticyclonic conditions through NZ while as everyone knows, Queensland was very, very wet. There are many more examples of this but those are just a couple. As I've said in the Climate Drivers thread a while ago, there's more to it than just looking at a MSLP chart and identifying the 'H' in the Tasman Sea.

I agree with you re the current pattern. I do think it tried to return to a more typical February pattern this past week with scattered onshore showers returning in a (finally) moister, elongated ridge but now we're back where we started - weak ridge, rubbish moisture infeed and garden-variety storms at best. Great if you like to swelter in hot days and photograph storms, terrible if you want some proper rainfall.

Top
#1489879 - 10/02/2019 14:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1254
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Iím officially done with his crap weather 😢 canít believe it hasnít rained this year, this is my wet season to get me through winter. Just devastating.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2019 - 145mm Jan - .5 Feb - 1.5, Mar - 143

2018 - 508.2
2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

Top
#1489882 - 10/02/2019 15:01 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7823
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Also a lot of dry southerly air being dragged up behind Thursday's front. Not good.

Top
#1489883 - 10/02/2019 15:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1879
Loc: Kingaroy
CFS is still holding on to a wet signal for SEQ in March, just a good little storm pass through in Kingaroy.

Top
#1489885 - 10/02/2019 15:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 606
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Oh Keool, A new thread , cheers crikey cool
Like the pics also Seabreeze , ,

Watching the skies midday yesty and noticed on radar that line way out to our SW - mid late afternoon i noticed quite a bit of mid level cloud flinging down from the Nrth and a bit later was turning to the SWst, thought this could get interest,, then squizzed the radar again, low-&-behold showed some good promise with the building intensity !
Saw some flashing over & beyond the Tambourine Mnt to our wst on dusk, heading for the Beenleigh corridor and other parts. tho, as usual The Damn Springbrook Mount destroyed any possible 'mild' onslaught for the GC cry

Looking a bit interesting Tues arvo from what I can decyfer with stormcast, some LI's, also good sheer through the levels, and modest moisture feed during the later afternoon evening - that said, I most likely missing other more important factors, eg, is there capping, a dry slot, not enough moisture etc ??

Just my humble inexperienced 'Bob's worth' cool blush

Looking on with interest with everyone's input as usual, good stuff ...
_________________________
Weather or not ?

Top
#1489887 - 10/02/2019 16:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1209
Loc: Warwick, QLD
On a happier note, I had 5.5mm last night in a light thundershower. Wonít make much of a difference, but it did remind me that it can actually rain out here.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

Top
#1489889 - 10/02/2019 16:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10632
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Thanks PlumbBob.
4.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am from the two storms yesterday.

The highest fall was 60mm at Stuarts Island near Nambucca Heads. The storm that moved through the Nambucca Valley during the afternoon was able to fully transition into a surface-based storm and tap into the 22-23įC dewpoints. Whereas most other storms yesterday tended to be higher-based and so brought lesser rain in comparison.

An invasion of drier air on the MNC behind the change with dewpoints getting as low as 11-13įC earlier today. Even if it will be just for a day, it's nice to have a break from the humidity though.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
April 2019 Rainfall: 161.4mm (April Avg. 169.3mm) // April 2019 Raindays: 19 (April Avg. 12.9 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 422.0mm (Jan-Apr Avg. 666.4mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 57 (Jan-Apr Avg. 55.6 raindays)

Top
#1489897 - 10/02/2019 18:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: james1977]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1006
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Originally Posted By: james1977


Originally Posted By: Ahab
Not looking good. The showers from last week were enough to keep the grass green but did nothing to creeks and groundwater. I heard before the term "green drought". Think this would apply here.


Green drought?? Really?? Itís only green along my garden beds from watering the plants. The rest of the yard is dead as and is like walking on a wire brush


We got a green drought down here James.After a couple of showers lately that would barely top up a tank , everything has greened up real nice. Must be the nitrogen enriched rainwater that does the trick.
By the way Mega, you made mention about our friend the Tasman High.No doubt they provide the mois indeed for those troughs.We should differentiate here and curse the Squidge, that "nose" like projection off the highs that hangs round for days, weeks sometimes.Thats the puppy that gives us so much grief and be worthy of cursing.

Top
#1489898 - 10/02/2019 18:25 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7930
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Originally Posted By: james1977


Originally Posted By: Ahab
Not looking good. The showers from last week were enough to keep the grass green but did nothing to creeks and groundwater. I heard before the term "green drought". Think this would apply here.


Green drought?? Really?? Itís only green along my garden beds from watering the plants. The rest of the yard is dead as and is like walking on a wire brush


We got a green drought down here James.After a couple of showers lately that would barely top up a tank , everything has greened up real nice. Must be the nitrogen enriched rainwater that does the trick.
By the way Mega, you made mention about our friend the Tasman High.No doubt they provide the mois indeed for those troughs.We should differentiate here and curse the Squidge, that "nose" like projection off the highs that hangs round for days, weeks sometimes.Thats the puppy that gives us so much grief and be worthy of cursing.


....and we hate it down in Gippsland Vic too.

Top
#1489902 - 10/02/2019 18:37 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Mega]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1810
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: mammatus meestrus
I'd much rather see a strong high with a deep mean easterly flow driving stream showers onto the coast(typical Feb) then this pseudo-spring storm pattern.

I see very little moisture flow into these troughs and hence, a repeat if anything of last nights storm where about 50 heavy drops fell and it barely registered in the gauge.

Whats was noteworthy about last weeks pattern was the paltry incursion of the showers south of the border.
Normally reliable high summer rainfall locations like Cape Byron barely broke 10mm over the week, Ballina didn't make 5mm.

Thats the second strong MJO phase, and in this case monster monsoonal surge that has resulted in a total failure of the normal summer moisture incursion into the sub-tropics.

I see no break in that pattern. Worse, if anything.


I thought there was a glimmer of hope a few weeks ago but yeah, nothing came of it for the southern half of the country. There also seems to be this common misconception around here that the Tasman Sea high automatically equates to dry 'boring' weather which is not always true. Oswald consisted of two double-highs over NZ which fed into an inland trough over inland QLD. Jan 1974 also consisted of very dry, anticyclonic conditions through NZ while as everyone knows, Queensland was very, very wet. There are many more examples of this but those are just a couple. As I've said in the Climate Drivers thread a while ago, there's more to it than just looking at a MSLP chart and identifying the 'H' in the Tasman Sea.



Yes Ken has mentioned that a few times about not just looking at the surface etc.. My point is if you look up the meaning of high pressure, it will say a high will give you fine and settled weather. Low pressure will provide rain and unsettled weather. Then again you can have low pressure in Darwin in the dry season, but its fine weather. The East coast of Australia must be very unique compared to other parts of the world where you can easily rely on having a Barometer on your wall.

Top
#1489903 - 10/02/2019 18:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
planet x Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/02/2015
Posts: 58
Loc: Brisbane
A welcome strong breeze here at the moment.
Perhaps a hint of a promise of things to come?

Top
#1489911 - 10/02/2019 19:35 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
Hmm speaking of breeze. The isobars are very far apart on the synoptic and l was expecting little to no wind as l was taught that wide isobars mean low wind. Well was surprised as we had quite a strong breeze here on the coast at times and even some strong winds west of the divide. There must be something else ?

Northern Rivers gusting up to 40km/hr SSE
same for the hunter region
Even the tablelands windy
Gold coast gust up to 54km/hr

windy in SEQ as well generally

One possible explanation. If you look at the surface layer winds . They are being sucked into that developing low in the coral sea. So a bit like a vacuum cleaner driven winds
surface ( SE/S)
But interesting that the model does not resolve that dynamic inflow into the TS in the coral sea

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

500hpa mids

we are generally on the NW flank of the mid level low west of NZ
SW / S

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

200hpa
we are under the sub tropical jet ( westerly)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1489912 - 10/02/2019 19:36 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6723
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
When was the last time SE Qld had a wet March/April/May?
_________________________

Top
#1489915 - 10/02/2019 19:46 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
Tomorrows surface synoptic . Quite interesting. The high in the Bight has been replaced by a strong zonal westerly belt. The sub polar latitude looks like it might be cranking with some bends. This one covers Tasmania as it passes. This is often seen in Autumn and winter.Likely drop in the AAO occurring.

Notice the very wide apart surface gradient over the mainland once again. I won't say light winds for our area because today it was windy. So expecting the same tomorrow. Surface winds advecting toward the Coral sea low ot towards the west NZ low. I suspect.?

ACC r not showing any rain for tomorrow
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
#1489920 - 10/02/2019 21:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10632
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: crikey
Hmm speaking of breeze. The isobars are very far apart on the synoptic and l was expecting little to no wind as l was taught that wide isobars mean low wind. Well was surprised as we had quite a strong breeze here on the coast at times and even some strong winds west of the divide. There must be something else ?

Northern Rivers gusting up to 40km/hr SSE
same for the hunter region
Even the tablelands windy
Gold coast gust up to 54km/hr

windy in SEQ as well generally

One possible explanation. If you look at the surface layer winds . They are being sucked into that developing low in the coral sea. So a bit like a vacuum cleaner driven winds
surface ( SE/S)
But interesting that the model does not resolve that dynamic inflow into the TS in the coral sea

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

500hpa mids

we are generally on the NW flank of the mid level low west of NZ
SW / S

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

200hpa
we are under the sub tropical jet ( westerly)



The SE'lies were rushing up behind the trough today. Keep in-mind the isobars on the BOM's ACCESS model map and BOM's synoptic chart are in intervals of 4hPa. So what can look lazy, can sometimes be a bit busier than it looks, especially when there are troughlines about.

Here's what the 00z GFS forecast run had for this afternoon at 4pm EST, showing the MSLP about our region and across Australia (isobars shown in 1hPa intervals), plus the wind streamlines for our region too (in knots) showing the stronger SE'lies rushing up behind the trough out at sea.





_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
April 2019 Rainfall: 161.4mm (April Avg. 169.3mm) // April 2019 Raindays: 19 (April Avg. 12.9 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 422.0mm (Jan-Apr Avg. 666.4mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 57 (Jan-Apr Avg. 55.6 raindays)

Top
#1489922 - 10/02/2019 22:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 937
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Not much to say about the current weather other than the humidity this morning was oppressive.
Coral sea looks interesting in the forecasts for the broader western pacific, but for SE Qld and NE NSW appears not much in it compared to the moisture that we would normally expect in midst of January to March weather.

Top
#1489932 - 11/02/2019 08:33 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
retired weather man Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 5055
Loc: Wynnum
WYNNUM NORTH - WEATHER

DATE..11 FEB 2019 TIME..0730

CURRENT TEMPERATURE......23.3C
CURRENT HUMIDITY...........87%
CURRENT DEW POINT......... 21C
CURRENT WIND DIR/SPEED... E 4kph
CURRENT MSLP PRESSURE....1009.4Hpa
CURRENT VISIBILITY........20KM
CURRENT WEATHER...........7/8 cloud, nearby showers.
RAIN SINCE 0900 SUNDAY...1.8mm

LAST 24 HOURS -
YESTERDAY'S MAX TEMP.......32.1C
THIS MORNING'S MIN TEMP....22.4C
THIS MORNING'S GRASS MIN...22.4C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR DEW POINT....21C
AVERAGE 24 HOUR MSLP.......1006.5Hpa
LAST 24 HOUR MAX WIND GUST..E 47kph at 1623
PAST 24 WEATHER SUMMARY... Overnight and early morning showers developed.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2019-Jan11.4(160),Feb47.0(146),Mar285.6(130),Apr96.8(95),YTD440.8(531),

Top
#1489963 - 11/02/2019 17:20 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3018
Loc: Tweed Heads
Thankyou so much 'seabreeze' for looking into that. Very informative and interesting.
The zoomed in 1km surface wind sure gives much greater detail. I will use that. Does UKMET or ACCESS have a similar product. (1km intervals for MSLP).


Edited by crikey (11/02/2019 17:20)
_________________________
http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

Top
Page 3 of 9 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >


Who's Online
7 registered (Nick Sykes, crikey, Lee@Hazo, AndrewM, Ben K, 2 invisible), 72 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Darkside, deadgoon, Littlevic
Forum Stats
29914 Members
32 Forums
24132 Topics
1524099 Posts

Max Online: 2985 @ 26/01/2019 12:05
Satellite Image