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#1489415 - 06/02/2019 18:25 SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
OK.. I am out on a limb . ACCESS g forecast.
Troughing with an embedded tropical low just off the coast.
We will be on the S /SW flank of the low with some weak ridging interfering at times.
Should be a moist onshore flow. There is a NE infeed into the low which also connects to the coast for some of this time frame.
Most of our area remains in the surface trough during this period.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml



Edited by Seabreeze (10/02/2019 22:24)
Edit Reason: added 'heat' to title
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#1489506 - 07/02/2019 18:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Synoptically speaking, the tropical low will be connected to our trough but the low will not come down south ( at least not this week or not at all).
It migrates east along latitude 18s all week in the coral sea . No southerly transition yet from ACCESS.
Here is a snap of the first day of our event with a precipitation signal on the trough line during diurnal max 2pm -onwards . ACCESS r suggesting some weakened activity may make it to the coast.
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#1489575 - 08/02/2019 12:53 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Good pick up Crikey, hopefully that low off the QLD coast doesnt block moisture flow from the Coral Sea.

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#1489621 - 08/02/2019 18:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Hi Petros. Thanks for dropping by ... ACCESS r is showing a reasonable precipitation signal west of the divide by 2pm. The activity is on the trough line west of the divide. A hunch there will be some embedded storms. Some decent stuff for the inland , even into country SE Qld
By 5pm ACCESS is showing some intensification and in fact the wet stuff makes it to the coast if you are south of ~ Brisbane.or south of the border perhaps.
Activity weakening into early evening
we will have westerly 500 hpa mid levels and sub tropical jetat 200hpa to encourage any wet activity over the ranges.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View


Edited by crikey (08/02/2019 18:09)
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#1489758 - 09/02/2019 13:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10670
Loc: SWR
Some surprise rain yesterday evening, with 3.8mm falling. Some thunder was heard, but the storms themselves mostly remained 10-15kms or more away from the coastline, and it was just their decayed remains that spread to the coast dropping some rain.


Photo looking towards Smoky Mountain at South West Rocks yesterday before the rain. With the exception of lawns, it's otherwise remained surprisingly green despite only about 20mm falling since Christmas.

Storms currently coming down the ranges, and heading E/ESE towards coastal parts.

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#1489776 - 09/02/2019 15:50 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
3.30pm. Storm line has now extended northward over the border up a far as Charleville
There also appears to be some speckles forming from that line and eastward to the coast.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR671.loop.shtml#skip

3.30pm obs
Contrast in dew points ..Moree 12.4 deg c with storms
Brisbane due point 20 deg c
tweed heads 22.9 deg c
as l am typing another short line forming or just filling in' coffs' to west of Lismore. could be interesting.
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#1489782 - 09/02/2019 16:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 675
Loc: Bardon 4065
Nice photo Seabreeze.

Yes Crikey the radar is looking good out west and in NSW. Unfortunately for SE Qld probably a bit too far west. Some nice storms around in northern NSW and probably just outside this forums boundary around Barrington Tops. View from the Murrurundi Gap web cam. (Storm at about 135 degrees has nice looking anvil)

https://weathercams.airservicesaustralia.com/?airport=murrurundi-gap

Unfortunately the Coffs Harbour Web cam is U/S as are a few others unfortunately.
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#1489794 - 09/02/2019 18:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 3184
Loc: Tweed Heads
Synoptic pattern changing and on the move finally. The AAO has been highly positive during the stalled east coast ridging this summer. Here is tomorrows synoptic showing the change from yesterday. The Tasman high has shrunk and moved away .The east quadrant of OZ has lower pressure troughing.
Of note tomorrow is the incredibly wide apart isobars giving next to no wind for Australia. ( apart from the coastal morning and arvo web and flow)
No rain signal of significance with this troughing tomorrow. Probably because the isobars are so far apart.
There was fog at the tweed this morning. Maybe again tomorrow with no wind?







Edited by crikey (09/02/2019 18:07)
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#1489799 - 09/02/2019 19:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
High cloud building way to the SW. Too far away to get anything out of.
Been a very warm sunny day. Not looking forward to 41C later in the week.
This summer sucks!
Cheers everyone for their input.

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#1489800 - 09/02/2019 19:30 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Bewdy that stinkin high goes into the graveyard !

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#1489805 - 09/02/2019 19:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Nothing stopping the one in the Bight or southern Indian replacing it?
AccessG was dreamin again I see.
Ahh, bit of action on 256K Stapy, havnt seen that for awhile.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (09/02/2019 19:43)

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#1489810 - 09/02/2019 20:13 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Yes mate as sure as night becomes day again there will be a brand spankin new high not far behind it cchafin at the bit to annoy us.Anyway it was nice to see Mr Nimbus appear out to the south west this arvie😄

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#1489815 - 09/02/2019 20:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Tuntable Crook Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/02/2013
Posts: 22
Thank you for starting this little thread. It's getting very hopeful around The Channon right now, where our paddocks are the worst they have been in over forty years. This storm front was largely unheralded on BOM etc, but was very well described here. Kudos.

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#1489817 - 09/02/2019 20:56 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 675
Loc: Bardon 4065
Radar looking good with a nice line of storms and showers from Oakey to Lismore. Most interesting it has looked for ages.
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#1489819 - 09/02/2019 21:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 1044
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
AccessR has it pestering out to nothing around here though.When you look at the rada though you have to shake ya head.What . . The usual coastal capping storm shield again?

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#1489821 - 09/02/2019 21:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: crikey]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3859
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Yes, just looked at that, wont get up this far though.

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#1489822 - 09/02/2019 21:08 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1669
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Would you believe it, a line is comming toward us. The bom say clear..... We'll see
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#1489823 - 09/02/2019 21:12 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: paulcirrus]
Nic_Bri Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/08/2016
Posts: 44
Loc: Mt Gravatt East
I know! I just checked the radar and was dumbfounded, lets hope it makes the coast!

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#1489824 - 09/02/2019 21:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1266
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Never gets worse in the dark , $100 on a fade out.

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#1489825 - 09/02/2019 21:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW Troughing bringing Heat and Possible Thunderstorms - 9th to 14th Feb 2019 [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1669
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
if it makes it to us at say 9pm, the bom will update our forecast at 9:15 to possible storm, you watch, but fade out totally possible
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